Thursday Evening Bitter Cold, Huge Winter Storm Update

The blue winter watches you saw in this morning's
National Weather Service map had started turning 
pink and purple as watches were upgraded
to winter and ice storm warnings. 

Huge swaths of the United States are bracing for that massive winter storm that will hit starting tomorrow and continue over the weekend. 

The forecasts keep getting worse. This is going to be a long, dangerous slog for a lot of people. And that includes the people north of the snow and ice storm who are or are about to endure temperatures far below zero. 

Just as in this morning's post, this Thursday evening update will give a broad brush look at the nation first, then zero in to Vermont for my local readers. 

As of late this afternoon, winter storm warnings - meaning trouble is inevitable - stretch from eastern New Mexico, through all but the southeastern third of Texas, then as far north as northern Missouri and as far east as Kentucky. 

Winter storm watches extend from Georgia to New England.  I still can't get over what a huge area this storm will cover. 

A huge area of freezing rain will be the worst part of this mess

Meteorologists are also beginning to pin down the location where ice from freezing rain might accumulate the most. One broad band of that freezing rain would extend from Texas, then go across northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi and up to just south of Nashville.

Another worrying area of ice looks like it might run through northeast Georgia through Upstate South Carolina and into the Piedmont, central North Carolina and parts of Virginia. 

The first ice storm warnings have been issued for sections of Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee. 

The newly released ice storm warning for heavily forested northern Mississippi calls for a half inch to an inch of ice. Trees really start taking a beating at a half inch of ice, so this will be a horrible mess for them. 

North of the ice, a broad band of heavy snow - probably more than 100 miles wide - will extend from northern Texas all the way to New England. Parts of Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia and Virginia could receive around two feet of snow. 

Memories are still fresh in Texas regarding the catastrophic electrical grid collapse during severe cold and winter storms in 2021. State officials say the grid will hold this time, though areas most affected by freezing rain could have extended power outages. 

It would be a damn good idea to follow any instructions from meteorologists and local officials about what to do during the storm. 

I'd skip the sensational stuff online. For instance, all the trees in especially frigid northern Minnesota aren't going to "explode." People in those areas and elsewhere might hear some loud cracks or booms as sap in trees cracks a small minority of tree trunks and branches. But don't worry about tree parts flying all over the place.

It is cold up there in North Dakota and Wisconsin. For instance, as of 3:30 p.m local time, the temperature in the northern Minnesota town of Warroad was a pleasant 22 below. Winds gusting to 24 mph gave them a windchill of 50 below. 

At least Warroad can take comfort in the fact that freezing rain is not in their forecast.   

I've also seen those conspiracy theories again in which some evil group is causing this. It's not. Obviously. This huge storm is what you get when massive dose of Arctic air collides with a boatload upon boatload of moisture heading north from the Gulf of Mexico.

VERMONT UPDATE

Intense snow squall crossing Lake Champlain before
slamming into Burlington this afternoon.

Boy, those snow squalls were something today, weren't they? They didn't drop much snow and didn't last long in any one place, but they were definitely dramatic. I've even heard an unofficial report of a lightning strike or two. 

Winds gusted to 40 mph or more in some of the more severe squalls. They were quick, though. I was in Burlington when the squall hit there, Five minutes after visibility was near zero in snow, it was nice and sunny with bright blue skies. 

More Squalls

As darkness fell late this afternoon, those squalls were simmering down nicely. 

However, we'll do it again tomorrow afternoon as another round of snow squall will come through. The difference tomorrow is it will be much colder, and less sunny, so the roads won't clear up as fast after the brief but heavy snows pass.

Not everyone will get a squall, but everybody should get some snow showers. Mostly in the late morning to mid afternoon.

Extreme Cold

Then the cold hits. The extreme cold watch, as expected, has been upgraded to an extreme cold warning. It runs from tomorrow evening to early Saturday afternoon. Expect wind chills of 20 to 40 below. 

Even after the cold warning expires Saturday afternoon, high temperatures will remain within a couple degrees either side of zero. Because of some increasing high clouds Saturday night, forecasters have backed off slightly on the chill. But it will still be awful, with lows Sunday morning in the upper single numbers to mid teens below zero. Maybe near 20 below in a few Northeast Kingdom spots

The Storm 

Forecasts keep trending northward with the heavier snow. A winter storm watch is now in effect for the southern four counties of Vermont Sunday afternoon into Monday. Those places could see seven inches of snow or more 

For now, there's no storm alerts for northern and central Vermont. But many of the computer models are starting to bring the heavier snow as far north as the Canadian border or even far southern Quebec. 

As always, I'll have many more updates and details in tomorrow morning's post.