Today's The Start Of Our Nation's Snowy, Icy Nightmare; Arctic Air Already Established

Weather channel map shows enormous area under the
gun for freezing rain in the Southeast. Pink
and purple areas to get freezing rain, with the
worst hit areas in dark purple.

It was close to 30 below with wind chills of near 50 below early this morning in northern Minnesota. That frigid air continues to race south and east, setting the stage for one of the most widespread winter storms to hit the U.S. in recent memory. 

Of course it won't be 20 below in places like Oxford, Mississippi or Waxahachie, Texas, or Hazard, Kentucky, Lumberton, North Carolina, Frederick, Maryland, or probably even Harmonyville, Vermont.

But all those places will easily be cold enough to endure lots of snow, lots of ice, and lots of brutally cold weather for the next few days. 

Media reports say at least 170 million Americans are under some kind of winter weather alert. That includes all 643,000 or so people who live here in Vermont. 

The first snowflakes and first icy raindrops have just started falling in the South and the effect are already being felt. Governors in a dozen states have declared emergencies. Natural gas prices have surged by 60 percent as people crank the heat off to ward off the icy or blizzardy chill. 

The most dangerous part of this storm is the expected freezing rain from Texas to the Southeast U.S. coast. 

This will cover a much larger area than most ice storms. Most of the areas at risk for the heaviest ice are heavily forested. That means lots of power outages as some of these trees collapse under the weight o the ice. 

Typically, if one area is hit by an ice storm, utility companies rush in from other states to help rebuild the power grid. That's going to be a more difficult this time because such a huge region is under the gun with freezing rain. 

Utility crews from further north in the expected snow zone are probably going to help. I hope some of them are staging in the southern freezing rain area now so they won't have to fight their way through heavy snow to get there. 

The heavy snow zone is itself enormous. Everybody in a broad band from northern Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas northeastward through New England will get at least six inches of snow. A number of places are in for more than a foot. 

It's also going to be dangerous after the storm. I mentioned Oxford, Mississippi. They're expecting an inch of ice, more than enough to bring down lots of trees and power lines. Unlike many southern winter storms, it's going to stay cold well after the storm in Oxford and most other places in the South. Overnight lows in Oxford are forecast to be in the single digits early next week.

There's almost too much to watch across the nation as this storm unfolds. But it's going to be an interesting few days. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The snow squalls, the intense cold and our share of the big U.S. winter storm are all on tap for Vermont.

Snow Squalls

Another look at the brief but intense snow squall in
Burlington, Vermont yesterday. Photo is when the 
intensity was just starting to decline. 

Those impressive snow squalls yesterday here and there in Vermont brought zero visibility and winds to 45 mph in some spots yesterday. 

More snow squalls are in the works today as that Arctic cold front approaches. Already, as of 8:30 a.m. one narrow band of fairly heavy snow was entering the northwestern corner of Vermont. Another such band was in Rutland County.

We'll see more of this through the day. Some of the squalls might even hit after the front passes and while temperatures are dropping. So in that respect, these could be more dangerous than those that hit Thursday. 

It was warm enough Thursday for the snow to quickly melt off the roads once the squalls departed. Today will be colder, so the road conditions won't improve as fast. And of course if you're caught in one of those squalls on the road, good luck seeing anything in front of you. 

Nobody will get much snow out of this. Most places will see an inch or less. It's just that in some places, all that snow will come down in something like 10 minutes. 

Intense Cold

After peaking late this morning or early afternoon close to 20 degrees, temperatures will crash as stiff northwest winds pick up. The worst of it will be tonight and the first half of Saturday with the lowest temperatures and the strongest winds. Those are the hours when our extreme cold warning is in effect. 

It still looks like actual temperatures will go below zero this evening and bottom out early tomorrow morning in the upper single numbers to upper teens below zero. Wind chills will be in the 20 to 40 below range. 

It still looks like highs tomorrow will only make it to about zero. A little below that in the north, and little above that in southern valleys. 

Usually in a cold wave like this the second night is even colder. We originally thought that would be the case Saturday night. But that massive storm will start clouding us up by then.  Northern areas will probably be a little colder than Friday morning, but with less wind.

Southern Vermont, where the clouds will arrive first, might be a little warmer Sunday morning than Saturday morning. Don't break out the Hawaiian shirts, though. It will still be below zero

The Storm

As we suspected last evening would happen, the winter storm watch that was in effect for southern Vermont has bee extended through the state all the way to the Canadian border.  The computer model keep pushing the storm a little north, and also frigid, dry high pressure north.

The high pressure is important. If it was centered close to us, moisture coming up this way would get eaten up by the dry air, and we'd get little snow. If the high is further north in Quebec, the moisture would have an easier time invading, so we'd get more snow. 

The computer models are disagreeing on exactly how much snow we'll get Sunday into Monday. Early guesses have five or six inches near the Canadian border to over a foot near the Massachusetts border.

Don't take that as gospel. There will be adjustments.

We can tell you that we know southern Vermont will get more snow than the north. We don't have to worry about sleet and freezing rain. And this will be an unusually cold snow storm. 

Temperatures during the event will be in the single numbers and low teens. It will probably be a pretty fluffy snow. None of that wet, heavy crap we've often gotten in recent winters. 

Cleanup after the storm in Vermont isn't going to go great either. Temperatures will be low enough after the storm so that salt won't work great on the roads.

Actually cleanup won't be easy anywhere because there's a nationwide shortage of road salt. Until now, it hasn't been a particularly cold winter in the U.S., but there's been a lot of icy storms. Salt is in short supply. 

Or even nonexistent in some communities.

The City of Vergennes posted on Facebook yesterday that it is entirely out of salt.  Rutland is almost out of salt, too. So is Monkton and West Rutland. And probably some other Vermont towns. 

The salt shortage is hitting the entire state. The Vermont Department of Motor Vehicles has temporarily waived driving hour limits for salt delivery drivers until the end of the month because of the high demand. 

It'll stay cold all of next week, though not as cold as tomorrow. Still, highs in the low to  mid teens and lows near zero don't sound like fun.

The weather pattern over the next two weeks tends to favor more nor'easters. It's hard to tell whether any of them will come close enough to Vermont to give us more snow, so we'll just have to wait and see.