Wednesday Morning: Cleaning Up The Snow Ahead Of Rain Then Maybe A Mess By Sunday?

Traffic cam grab of Route 7 in Ferrisburgh, Vermont this
morning shows that commuters had a pretty view
with wet snow clinging to the branches of the trees.

The bulk of last night's storm was done as of 8 a.m. this morning, but there were still lots of patches of light snow and freezing drizzle around. That state of affairs will continue most of the day. 

Temperatures were hovering within a few degrees either side of 30 early this morning, and will only  make it into the low  to mid 30s this afternoon. 

Traffic cameras as of 8:15 a.m. showed the main roads had been pretty much cleared. Some still had some slush on them, but the Interstates were generally just wet with small amounts of slush. 

I noticed ice on the trees in the background in traffic cameras in far southern Vermont, so they clearly got a little freezing rain.  That adds a little bit of adventure to those on the road in that neck of the woods. 

In general, those places that had mostly snow had a two to four inch little dump. My place in St. Albans had 3.5 inches. I saw several reports in the 2.5 to 3.5 inch range, with a few spots like Shrewsbury up to 4 inches. We'll have a full accounting of the totals later, I'm sure. 

The snow is definitely wetter and heavier than the fluff we got Monday and Monday night. You'll have to work a little to shovel your driveway or walkway. 

It's striking to see the differences in snow cover in Vermont now. In Bennington, the ground is practically bare, with definitely less than an inch of snow on the ground. By the time you get up to say, Route 108 in Stowe, there's a very decent snow cover. 

The amount of snow on the ground is going to shift in the coming days, with an initial thaw, then some uncertainty toward Sunday. 

Let's take it piece by piece.

TODAY/TONIGHT

As mentioned, today will be a somewhat gloomy January day with an overcast and patches of light snow and freezing drizzle. Or just plain drizzle in the warm spots. Patches of snow and freezing drizzle will probably continue into tonight. 

As it gets chillier tonight, expect road conditions to deteriorate some.

THURSDAY

A rather nice day for January. Early patches of flurries or freezing drizzle will yield to some sunshine, and temperatures will get will into the 30s.  Aside from some icy spots on the roads early in the day, we should be just "foine!" It'll be a good day to get out there and chop ice off your driveway or sidewalk. 

FRIDAY

The first of two storms will go by well to our west. Here's where our thaw will peak as many of us get into the 40s. Since the storm won't be all that strong and so far west of here, it looks like rainfall will be pretty light. At this point, I'd expect maybe a tenth to a quarter inch of rain.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY

This one is still looking kinda complicated. This will be the strongest storm of the bunch, though not super extreme. 

It looks like s double-barreled sort of arrangement with the original storm heading into the Great Lakes Saturday and Saturday night. While that's happening, a new storm is forecast to form near southeasternNew England, in tandem with or Great Lakes storm. 

Things in Vermont will probably start off as rain, but will this storm end up being mostly rain, or a mix of ice, rain and snow? It mostly depends on how strong the New England piece of this gets. If the Great Lakes end of things stays predominate, then we will all have mostly rain. If the New England one takes charge, then all bets are off.

I guess we'll have to stay tuned.

BEYOND SUNDAY

As I've been advertising, we're back to a colder pattern after the weekend storm goes by. But the computer models - at least for now - have been backing off on how cold it will get.  We just might mostly escape true Arctic cold.  

We've known for awhile that the few days after the weekend storm would be just seasonably cold, and it still looks that way in the forecasts.  Actually, next Tuesday and Wednesday look like we'll have a shot at slightly milder than normal January air. 

I'm going to warn you here of a little hype you might see, especially on line.  I noticed a few computer models give us a blockbuster of a nor'easter on the weekend of January 17-18.  A few of the more aggressive social media weather nerds will certainly hop on this today to alarm you into clicking on their sites. You know, revenue. 

It's nearly impossible to forecast a nor'easter accurately this far in advance. Nor'easters can definitely happen in January, that's for sure. Winter is their favorite time of year, after all. 

This morning's run of the American model gives us a big storm in mid-January. Other models, and last night's run of the America computer model, just looked at the atmosphere for the middle weekend of January and said, and I quote. "Meh."

The atmospheric alchemy has to be just perfect to create a historic type nor'easter. It's always possible, of course. But I'd forget about this big  storm idea until about a week from now. If, on next Wednesday, we're still looking at a large storm, we'll start raising alarm bells then.   

Chances are, the alchemy won't work on the weekend of the 17th and 18th, and we'll see no impressive weather.  Whether or not something big happens, we'll keep you on top of it.