Wednesday Morning: Cleaning Up The Snow Ahead Of Rain Then Maybe A Mess By Sunday?

Traffic cam grab of Route 7 in Ferrisburgh, Vermont this
morning shows that commuters had a pretty view
with wet snow clinging to the branches of the trees.

The bulk of last night's storm was done as of 8 a.m. this morning, but there were still lots of patches of light snow and freezing drizzle around. That state of affairs will continue most of the day. 

Temperatures were hovering within a few degrees either side of 30 early this morning, and will only  make it into the low  to mid 30s this afternoon. 

Traffic cameras as of 8:15 a.m. showed the main roads had been pretty much cleared. Some still had some slush on them, but the Interstates were generally just wet with small amounts of slush. 

I noticed ice on the trees in the background in traffic cameras in far southern Vermont, so they clearly got a little freezing rain.  That adds a little bit of adventure to those on the road in that neck of the woods. 

In general, those places that had mostly snow had a two to four inch little dump. My place in St. Albans had 3.5 inches. I saw several reports in the 2.5 to 3.5 inch range, with a few spots like Shrewsbury up to 4 inches. We'll have a full accounting of the totals later, I'm sure. 

The snow is definitely wetter and heavier than the fluff we got Monday and Monday night. You'll have to work a little to shovel your driveway or walkway. 

It's striking to see the differences in snow cover in Vermont now. In Bennington, the ground is practically bare, with definitely less than an inch of snow on the ground. By the time you get up to say, Route 108 in Stowe, there's a very decent snow cover. 

The amount of snow on the ground is going to shift in the coming days, with an initial thaw, then some uncertainty toward Sunday. 

Let's take it piece by piece.

TODAY/TONIGHT

As mentioned, today will be a somewhat gloomy January day with an overcast and patches of light snow and freezing drizzle. Or just plain drizzle in the warm spots. Patches of snow and freezing drizzle will probably continue into tonight. 

As it gets chillier tonight, expect road conditions to deteriorate some.

THURSDAY

A rather nice day for January. Early patches of flurries or freezing drizzle will yield to some sunshine, and temperatures will get will into the 30s.  Aside from some icy spots on the roads early in the day, we should be just "foine!" It'll be a good day to get out there and chop ice off your driveway or sidewalk. 

FRIDAY

The first of two storms will go by well to our west. Here's where our thaw will peak as many of us get into the 40s. Since the storm won't be all that strong and so far west of here, it looks like rainfall will be pretty light. At this point, I'd expect maybe a tenth to a quarter inch of rain.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY

This one is still looking kinda complicated. This will be the strongest storm of the bunch, though not super extreme. 

It looks like s double-barreled sort of arrangement with the original storm heading into the Great Lakes Saturday and Saturday night. While that's happening, a new storm is forecast to form near southeasternNew England, in tandem with or Great Lakes storm. 

Things in Vermont will probably start off as rain, but will this storm end up being mostly rain, or a mix of ice, rain and snow? It mostly depends on how strong the New England piece of this gets. If the Great Lakes end of things stays predominate, then we will all have mostly rain. If the New England one takes charge, then all bets are off.

I guess we'll have to stay tuned.

BEYOND SUNDAY

As I've been advertising, we're back to a colder pattern after the weekend storm goes by. But the computer models - at least for now - have been backing off on how cold it will get.  We just might mostly escape true Arctic cold.  

We've known for awhile that the few days after the weekend storm would be just seasonably cold, and it still looks that way in the forecasts.  Actually, next Tuesday and Wednesday look like we'll have a shot at slightly milder than normal January air. 

I'm going to warn you here of a little hype you might see, especially on line.  I noticed a few computer models give us a blockbuster of a nor'easter on the weekend of January 17-18.  A few of the more aggressive social media weather nerds will certainly hop on this today to alarm you into clicking on their sites. You know, revenue. 

It's nearly impossible to forecast a nor'easter accurately this far in advance. Nor'easters can definitely happen in January, that's for sure. Winter is their favorite time of year, after all. 

This morning's run of the American model gives us a big storm in mid-January. Other models, and last night's run of the America computer model, just looked at the atmosphere for the middle weekend of January and said, and I quote. "Meh."

The atmospheric alchemy has to be just perfect to create a historic type nor'easter. It's always possible, of course. But I'd forget about this big  storm idea until about a week from now. If, on next Wednesday, we're still looking at a large storm, we'll start raising alarm bells then.   

Chances are, the alchemy won't work on the weekend of the 17th and 18th, and we'll see no impressive weather.  Whether or not something big happens, we'll keep you on top of it.  

Vermont Monday Storm Update: Will Be Interesting Commute Home This Evening For Many Of Us

As of 4:30 p.m. Monday, Route 58 in Lowell, Vermont
looked pretty bad amid heavy falling snow. Those
conditions were spreading southward further into
Vermont as a cold front arrives just in time
for your evening commute. 

 It started snowing here at my perch in St. Albans, Vermont at around 3:15 this afternoon, setting the stage for a crappy drive home from work or school. 

The snow here almost immediately began to come down at a decent clip and almost immediately began to stick, despite temperatures in the mid-30s when the snow started. 

That is a clue that things will get messy for the rest of the day and the evening across much of Vermont, New York and eventually New Hampshire .

For the late afternoon and evening, temperatures are probably kind of marginal - not far from 32 degrees   -so the snow will be rather wet and heavy, even in far northern Vermont.  

The further south you go in Vermont, the more likely you'll see some rain or freezing rain mixing in for awhile.  

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says the most likely place for rain or a mix of rain, freezing rain and snow for the next few hours is very roughly along and south of Route 2. Eventually, the mix will change to snow everywhere this evening.

But by the time things switch over to snow in far southern Vermont, the cold front and best moisture will already be past us.  Most low elevations in the state's southernmost counties should see an inch or less of snow out of this. 

In the northern half Vermont, the snow could come down pretty hard at times this evening. It already was late this afternoon in some areas of the far north. 

As of 4:30 p.m., Interstate 89 in Colchester, Vermont near
Burlington was fine and dandy, with very little snow on the
ground, a sharp contrast to high elevations in 
northern Vermont.  Road conditions will deteriorate
here and elsewhere in Vermont where snow hadn't quite
started falling yet before dark, 

As of 4:15 p.m. traffic cameras in places like along Route 242 in Westfield and Route 58 in Lowell were showing nasty road conditions and what appeared to be heavy snow falling.

  Up in these areas, this evening's little storm is adding to a pretty deep snow cover.  As of this morning, Westfield reported a snow depth of 21 inches and a higher spot in Greensboro had 22 inches. 

These bad driving conditions were slowly spreading south and east. The later this evening you drive home, the worse it will be. 

Overall, in the winter weather advisory zone in northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain, the forecast still calls for three to six inches of new snow, with maybe a little more than that on high spots like Jay Peak. 

The National Weather Service is going with about two inches of new snow in communities like Burlington, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury. The little bit of rain or very wet snow there will keep totals down a bit.  

Away from the Canadian border and the Champlain Valley the amount of snow we're getting this evening doesn't really quality for winter advisories. So the National Weather Service released a special weather statement warning of a difficult commute over the next few hours. 

Later tonight, any remaining snowfall will be lighter and fluffier as temperatures crash once again.  

Winter Not Over, But Brutal Stuff Gone For Quite Awhile In Vermont

A hazy, gloomy start to a winter workweek in St. Albans,
Vermont. After that Arctic blast Friday and Saturday,
we've settled back into that warm-ish, dreary 
weather pattern we've had most of this winter. 

As I often do on a Monday morning, I'm assessing the upcoming week's weather in Vermont.

On the bright side, there won't be nearly as much drama as we had Friday and Saturday with that intense cold snap.  

On the negative side for snow lovers, we've got some thawing coming up, mostly in the valleys. And the prospects for more snow are uncertain at best. It's that kind of winter. After the Arctic  blast, the winter of 2022-23 is up to its old warm and snow droughty tricks. 

The climb back out of the deep freeze in Burlington was impressive. The temperature steadily rose without a break from 7 a.m. Saturday to 7 p.m. Sunday night. It went from 15 below to 38 above during that time, a whopping 53 degree warmup within 36 hours.   (The temperature did go up another degree to 39 degrees later that night).

Several spots, including Burlington, managed to stay above freezing all night, too. 

That won't last, as we will see a brief return to winter today and tonight. But this will only be average cold for February. Nothing extreme in the least. 

We've had a lot of backward temperature trends lately, in which it gets colder at a time of day it should be getting warmer, and other moments where it's getting warmer when the time of day suggests it should be getting colder. 

We'll have another episode of that today. As the morning and early afternoon wears on, it will get colder and colder in most of Vermont when temperatures would normally be rising. This won't be a spectacular  temperature crash like we had on Friday. Instead, readings will slowly glide downward into the 20s by mid and late afternoon.

That sets us up for a chilly night tonight, but again, nothing breathtaking.  Most of us will probably wind up in the single numbers above zero.

THE REST OF THE WEEK

A small storm passing by will warm us right back up Tuesday and Tuesday night. It won't be that warm - in the 30s  - so it will be light rain, light snow or an unpleasant mix of glob and sludge.  Luckily we won't have much of it.

After a quiet and warm-ish Wednesday, 30s to near 40 again, we start seeing some huge question marks in the forecast. 

One not-so-strong storm Thursday night and early Friday will will pass nearby or just to our west. That will mean another unwelcome bout of rain, maybe some freezing rain, and even a little sleet or snow thrown in. Again, that's the winter we're having, isn't it!

The only decent shot of snow we have is if a follow-up storm rides up the coast or not on Saturday. The forecasting computer models vehemently disagree on what, if anything will come our way. (I'd almost like to see a physical fight between those computer models, but that probably won't happen. Sorry).

Some models do have a decent storm, some have a nothingburger. The models that do have a storm coming up the coast disagree on whether it will be snow or rain, or a mix. They also disagree on how much of anything we'll get.

At this point, if you want to know Saturday's weather, you're just as good doing a coin toss. Or just wait for updated forecasts later in the week. 

Still Warm In Vermont, But Are Snow Gods About To Give At Least A Mona Lisa Smile?

The snowfall forecast map from the National Weather
Service office is back! For now, anyway, they're forecasting
mostly a four to seven inch snowfall for Vermont
Thursday night and Friday. 

 We got through last night's patchy freezing drizzle and ick, and we're starting the day warm once again in Vermont. 

But are we finally setting ourselves up for some real snow? Maybe.

You won't feel that way today in the valleys.  It'll be above freezing in most low elevations all day.  That'll slightly damage whatever thin snow cover you might have on the ground.  A few drops of cold, non-freezing rain are possible, too.

In the mountains, snow showers could leave a dusting of new snow, which is nice. 

Then we get into Thursday, Thursday night and Friday, as that mid-sized storm approaching.  Meteorologists are still insisting this one will be mostly snow, at least in central and northern Vermont. 

The early consensus is we can expect four to seven inches of snow by Friday night, with a bit more than that in the mountains. The National Weather Service in South Burlington decided early this morning to hold off on issuing any winter weather advisories or watches. They did that mostly to not confuse the public with a winter weather advisory for last night's ice. That advisory expired at 7 a.m. today.

I'm all in favor of no confusion, so NWS Burlington is handling this well.

As is often the case, the first part of the upcoming storm is the most "exciting." It'll be an initial thump of fairly heavy snow working its way southwest to northeast across Vermont overnight Thursday.

There is a bust potential in this forecast, especially south, if the initial thump of precipitation brings just a wee bit more warm air along with it than forecast. There isn't all that much cold air for this storm to work with to begin with, so it's easy for warm air to over-perform. We shall see! The further north you go, the better the chances it'll be all snow Thursday night. 

The snow gods might be starting to finally smile on
Vermont now. Not a full-fledged big grin, but sort of
an uncertain, tentative Mona Lisa smile.

\This is a double barrel storm.  The parent storm, which is laying down a stripe of heavy snow from Colorado to Michigan today and tomorrow will lumber slowly into the eastern Great Lakes. But a spiffy new storm will form in the Mid-Atlantic states later Thursday. That one will  zip with pep off the southern New England coast during midday Friday.

That new storm is mostly what's bringing us the initial thump of snow or mix Thursday night.  With that storm out of our hair, it clears right up on Friday, correct?

Uh, no. Not this time. 

Remember our now, old decrepit storm that caused that snowstorm in the Midwest?  It'll still be alive, though arthritic and slow.  It looks like it will stagger out of the Great Lakes and limp across northern New England Friday.  It'll still be strong enough to continue the light to maybe sometimes moderate snow much of the day on Friday. Since it will have a pocket of slightly colder air aloft with it, this will mostly be snow Friday. 

By the way, much of the snow through the whole storm will be relatively wet and heavy. That raises the risk of some power outages. However, it won't be nearly as bad as that big wet snowstorm in mid-December that caused tens of thousands of power outages in Vermont.

It's too soon to tell for sure, but there could be at least two more storms following the one on Friday that could take a track sweet enough to dump snow on Vermont. No promises, but the snow gods might be starting to smile on Vermont. Not a broad grin, but sort of uncertain, tentative Mona Lisa-style smile.

But, if by some miracle we see three moderate snowstorms in a week, which is somewhat possible, the big snow deficit Vermont has built up this winter would be seriously dented.