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| A distant thunderstorm erupts yesterday afternoon, looking north from St. Albans, Vermont. Some storms were unexpectedly strong Wednesday afternoon, producing scattered wind damage and hail. |
Instead, the weather radar was lit up like a Christmas tree by early afternoon. And an atmosphere that Wednesday morning seemed like it was incapable of yielding any real volatility did just that.
So, we have more severe storm damage reports this morning. A Chittenden County storm before 1 p.m. knocked down four large trees along Route 2A in St. George. Another good sized tree fell and blocked busy Route 116 near the South Burlington/St. George town line. Small hail fell in South Burlington.
But we weren't done yet. Another severe storm ripped through central Vermont during the evening, ripping down trees and utility wires around Goshen. Chittenden and Rochester were pelted by quarter-sized hail.
We might not be done with this kind of weather yet
TODAY
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the northeastern half of New England, including the portion of Vermont north and east of Interstate 89, under a marginal, level one out of five risk of severe storms today.
So, nothing widespread, but still, the chance of some trouble. It looks like any area in central and northern Vermont could see an isolated severe storm today. Especially north of Route 2.
The biggest risk is a few incidences of strong gusty winds and hail. The freezing levels in the atmosphere is a little low for August, so that increases the chance of hail. We shouldn't see anything like David Letterman's canned ham-sized hail, but small hail is a decent bet if any stronger storms form. And there's a chance of a few larger chunks of ice, maybe up to the size of quarters.
A few showers could break out at any time today, but the best chance of thunderstorms is during the late afternoon and evening. As is usually the case, they will be hit and miss. Some places will see nothing, a number of other Vermont towns will see some rain and a rumble of thunder but nothing exciting, and a small minority might get blasted by a storm.
One encouraging note: At least one weather model doesn't give us much of anything today in terms of storms. I wouldn't necessarily lean on that model to be right, but it's a sign of hope, I guess.
Unlike many summer days with thunderstorms, today won't be particularly hot, nor humid. Highs will only be in the 75 to 82 degree range, with dew points in the so-so low 60s. So slightly humid, but not ridiculous.
FRIDAY
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say we will have no severe weather. The atmosphere will be extremely hostile to anything like that, while at the same time it will be extremely nice to us humans.
The cold front will have passed, leaving us with mostly sunny skies, low humidity and a nice cool breeze from the north. Highs will only be in the 70s, maybe near 80 in the warmest towns in the lower Connecticut River Valley
A patch of clouds could come over Friday night, but they will do nothing other than keep temperatures a tad higher than they otherwise would be. Expect lows in the 46 to 55 degree range, generally. So it will still be a nice cool sleeping night
SATURDAY
At this point, it looks like another beauty. It will basically be a repeat of Friday: Sunshine, highs in the 70s, a slight cool breeze.
SUNDAY
It's not looking so nice, at least later in the day. The next weather disturbance comes through, potentially with beneficial rains. The storms so far this month - bad as they've been - have been hit and miss. Many areas are pretty dry.
We don't have an absolute guarantee on this little storm yet. It could go too far to our south, giving us not all that much rain. If for some reason it goes to the north of us, it could pull in enough unstable, humid air to give us, sigh, another risk of severe storms.
At the moment, anyway, it looks like just a light to moderate rainfall Sunday afternoon and night. As always, stay tuned for updates!
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