A Warm Vermont Day, Showers, Then A Couple Coolish Days, Then A Sharp Cold Front

Expected rainfall tomorrow. Maybe a quarter in in much
of Vermont. If we're lucky, more than a half inch in
northwest Vermont. Southeast Vermont looks likes it
will miss out, with less than a tenth of an inch. 

The sky eventually sorta, kinda finally cleared out yesterday afternoon, revealing the high, thin overcast we expected.  

The persistent clouds kept Wednesday's temperatures a little cooler than expected, with highs generally in 60s. 

Up next, some typically variable Vermont weather. We got a warm, somewhat humid day, another day that shifts from warm and rainy to cooler, a glorious Saturday, an OK Sunday and then some downright frosty weather. 

Let's get into it. 

TODAY

The sky finally showed some nice blue this morning, the last of the low clouds finally having been flushed out.  The day has also started really warm for the first of October. Most of Vermont had temperatures in the 50s at dawn, with a couple low 60s in the Champlain Valley. 

The blue skies this morning will disappear behind mostly high and middle clouds. Those clouds will hold temperatures down a little more than we originally thought. Instead of mid and upper 70s, highs will probably top off within a few degrees either side of 70.

There could be some light showers later this afternoon near the Canadian border, but those will be spotty and super light. 

It will also feel a little humid, especially for this time of year.

FRIDAY

A fairly strong cold front will come through during the day. The morning and probably a good chunk of the afternoon should be showery and pretty humid for the season. 

Best guess is that much of northern Vermont could end up at a quarter and a half inch, with maybe a little more along the western slopes of the northern Green Mountains. 

Southern Vermont should have less than a quarter inch of rain, with only a few hundredth of an inch in the southeast

Then, chillier air will start to move in, and that will be most noticeable in the north and west.  Expected high temperatures will be in the 60s, give or take. 

The cool air will become firmly established Friday night.  

SATURDAY

It continues to look like the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing has an order in for a perfect fall weekend day on tap.  Or at least they've been channeling the weather gods for this because parts of the state are now at peak foliage. 

The day will feature blue skies and crisp air.  Highs should make it to within a few degrees either said of 60 degrees. Watch out for frost Saturday night and early Sunday. Not everybody will get that white film on their lawns. But if you still have some plants outdoors that need to come in, you might keep cover them or bring them in Saturday evening

SUNDAY

It's beginning to look like Sunday will be nicer than we thought a few days ago. Sounds like the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing is working really hard with the weather gods.  Instead of the overcast and showers we thought would plague Sunday, it's now looking like it might be partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Sweet! 

EARLY NEXT WEEK

It still looks like a strong cold front will arrive.  Hard freezes could hit many areas of Vermont. I wouldn't even rule out some mountain snow flurries. Winter's coming - eventually. 

A Noticeable Step Down Into A Vermont Autumn In The Coming Week

Like most of the landscape in Vermont's Champlain Valley
the big maple and other trees around my St. Albans house
are still green. That might start to change as noticeably
cooler weather settles in tomorrow and 
probably lasts through next week

 Very often, when seasons change, there are steps up or down. Sometimes in the fall, you get a stretch of weather that's relatively stable for a week.  

Then suddenly, it's a few degrees cooler, and that chillier regime holds for a week or so. Then it gets cooler yet. 

It's not an even process. As we know we get some lingering warm spells thrown in. Indian Summer, or just a stretch of warm days with balmy southwest breezes.

I bring this up because we're about to take a step down, further into autumn. 

This deeper dive into autumn won't start until tomorrow. Let's get into the details

TODAY

Still warm, and, truth be told, vaguely humid. Certainly not the humidity we deal with in the summer. Just a hint of moisture in the air that will make you sweaty if you really exert yourself. 

Highs should get into the 70s, but this won't be a late breaking brilliant summer day. Clouds should dominate, though there might be a break or two of sun, especially north. Don't count on it, though. 

 A weak disturbance should set off some rain and showers today, mostly in the southern half of Vermont. There might even be some brief downpours. We were already seeing a few very light showers in central Vermont as of 8 a.m., but the bulk of the rain will hit this afternoon

Rainfall in southern Vermont should come out near a quarter inch, maybe a little more in a few spots. 

The north, especially far northwest should be mostly dry, with rainfall amounts today ranging from nothing to maybe a tenth of an inch. 

FRIDAY

The step down to cooler weather should definitely be noticeable tomorrow. A cold front tonight will sweep in much drier air, leading to a sunny, delightful, slightly cool September day. Highs should reach the 60s for most of us. Maybe some upper 50s in the Northeast Kingdom and near 70 in the warmest banana belt valley towns. 

This will all happen with pleasant northwest breezes and under blue skies, flecked with a few clouds. 

That'll set us up for a cold night. I think the National Weather Service might issue frost advisories again for the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks across the pond in New York. Lows in the cold hollows could easily touch freezing. 

For the rest of us, lows will probably be in 36 to 46 degree range by dawn Saturday, with the warmest readings near Lake Champlain. 

SATURDAY

Even cooler as autumn continues to establish itself. After the chilly morning, highs should only get into the 60s under generally sunny skies. Some clouds might increase later in the day. But all in all, a nice day. 

SUNDAY

This looks like the first cold, raw, damp day of the autumn. That first gloomy, chilly day usually comes about now, so it's right on schedule. A storm sliding by the south will provide more rain to the bottom half of Vermont, not so much to the north. 

Early guess are maybe a tenth of an inch of new rain up by the Canadian order to as much as three quarters to an inch of rain far south. 

Highs should only be near 60. Especially in rainier southern Vermont highs could hold only in the 50s. 

NEXT WEEK

At this point, it looks like another big, fat high pressure system will come down from central Canada and then stall nearby. Early in the week, probably Monday and/or Tuesday morning, we'll need to look at the risk of frost again. Monday will probably be the coolest  day, but it will slowly warm up after that. 

But not much. The step down to autumn weather is complete. Daily highs should be in the 60s Monday through Thursday. In the Northeast Kingdom, there will probably be at least give consecutive mornings, starting Saturday, with lows in the 30s. 

Forecasters are unsure whether the stalled high will keep skies sunny all week, or whether some moisture could work on in from the south with clouds and a risk of light rain. 

KEY MESSAGE 3: Our region should be under the influence of a
seasonably cool high pressure area gradually moving eastward to
start the work week. Temperatures should be about 10 degrees
below normal Monday trending to around normal on Wednesday. With
this pattern and 925 millibar temperatures falling to near the
10th percentile, Tuesday morning should be another frosty one 

for sheltered areas that already saw frost Saturday morning.s 

It's True Autumn In Vermont Now, And You'll Notice It

Raindrops on a flower this morning in St. Albans, 
Vermont. There's a chance of more showers and 
thunderstorms later today, but some places 
might not get any new rain at all

Typically in Vermont, the first week or so of September often still feels like summer. Then, that warmth fades away. 

We pretty much are feeling that this year. Sure, we'll have a few summer-ish days yet. We'll have several more warm days before winter hits, of course. 

Today will be among those warmer days.  This morning, the vaguely humid, wet air still had the distinct aroma of autumn, not summer. 

Yesterday, Vermont was blessed with yet another gorgeous Saturday. Since at least June, Saturdays have tended to be nice. Just the fortunate rhythm of the weather patterns, I guess. 

After a Saturday morning in Burlington that was the coolest since June 3. it was also comfortably warm that afternoon.  But it felt nothing like summer. Just a gorgeous September day. 

Let's look ahead at what's coming. 

TODAY

Most of Vermont had some rain overnight and early this morning. It looks like most places had a third of an inch of rain. A few places received close to a half inch of rain.  It was still raining early today in eastern Vermont, which is great, as it's needed.  

This Vermont rain is the outer edge of much heavier downpours in southern New England. Flash flood warnings were up in Connecticut, and those flooding rains were spreading toward Rhode Island and Massachusetts. 

Today will actually not be a terribly bad weather day. Better than I thought 24 hours ago. Maybe not as rainy or stormy as originally thought. That said, we still have a shower and even a thunderstorm risk. 

Some clearing will arrive this afternoon, which could send us one of two ways as a cold front approaches. 

On one hand, dry and sinking air behind this morning's rain could help squelch showers and thunderstorms that want to develop. On the other hand, the sun could increase the amount of instability in the air. That would encourage some thunderstorms. 

Any showers that do develop will be mostly in the late afternoon and evening. 

The bottom line is, we still have a marginal risk of severe storms today. That means there could be isolated instances of damaging winds or large hail. Most of us will be fine. 

This is also a conditional forecast, meaning we don't know whether the sinking air or the strong sun will win out. We might see no thunderstorms, or quite a few of them, depending on which scenario wins. 

Showers should continue into the evening.

MONDAY

You know those autumn days I mentioned above? Monday will be one of those. It'll be even chillier than it was on Friday. Morning clouds will yield to sunshine. Those clouds might hold tough for much of the day in the Northeast Kingdom.  Despite afternoon sunshine in most of Vermont, temperatures will hold in the 60s. Some colder spots in the Northeast Kingdom could stay in the 50s. 

The cold hollows in Vermont and New York need to worry about frost Monday night. 

TUESDAY

The morning will start cold. Dawn temperatures will be between 38 to 45 degrees, a little colder than it was Saturday morning. Frost will probably glisten on the grass in the coldest hollow of eastern Vermont. That's nothing unusual for this time of year, but it's a reminder that it's September. 

Much like Saturday, south winds will help boost afternoon temperatures into the low 70s. A weak front that will be falling apart over northern New England Tuesday night. That will create clouds. The clouds, and some south winds will hold temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s. 

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

We've been talking about a fast west to east air flow that makes forecasts challenging. Forecasters think a weather disturbance might come through with some rain later Wednesday and Thursday. But we're not sure if that will actually happen or not. It could go too far south or north of us. 

It'll be on the seasonably warm side, with highs Wednesday through Friday in the 70s and lows in the 50s. But beyond that, it looks like cooler weather will settle in. 

 

Vermont Weather To Bounce Around, Cool To Muggy To Warm To Cool; Some Needed Rain Thrown In

After a little welcome morning rain in St. Albans, skies
at least partly cleared in the afternoon. We ended up
with a pleasant afternoon with a  pretty skies. 

As expected, the rain in northern Vermont faded quickly as it headed south, amounting to nothing south of Route 2.  

Right near the Canadian border, the rain was pretty decent - at or above a quarter inch. Derby Line had a half inch, Swanton just a smidge under a third of an inch. 

Here in St. Albans had 0.21 inches, and that reduced to 0.02 for a total in Burlington. Nothing in places like Montpelier and Rutland. 

After the morning clouds and cool air, it turned into a nice afternoon, especially in northern Vermont. 

The changes keep coming. 

This morning, temperatures in North Country, ranging from frost in northern Maine to muggy low 70s in western New York. In Vermont, 5 a.m. temperatures ranged from 43 in Lyndonville and 63 in Rutland. 

Since weather usually comes from the west, you know what's going to happen. The muggy air will win out. At least briefly. 

Here's what happens next:

TODAY

The clouds will increase, and south winds will increase and the humidity will increase. By this evening, the air will definitely have a muggy feel.

Rain will move in from the west. There could be some very light showers at any time today, but the rain will begin in earnest mid to late afternoon, spreading west to east. Before the rain gets here, we should get into the low and mid 70s, with sone upper 60s northeast.

It'll be a fairly steady light to at times to moderate rain at times, then tonight it will turn into a showery type thing, typical of what you'd expect in humid air. There could be some brief downpours and a rumble or two of thunder overnight. 

It'll be a somewhat sticky, uncomfortable night for sleeping, too. One of the last of this year. Maybe even the last, if we're lucky. 

If we get lucky, current forecasts will pan out and we'll get a needed wetting. Total rainfall looks to be around a half inch to an inch in central and northern Vermont. Maybe a little less than that in the immediate Champlain Valley, maybe a little more than that in the Green Mountains. The lower Connecticut River Valley, from around Springfield south, might only get 0.1 to 0.25 inches. 

As always with this type of event, there will be some local surprises with some spots getting more than forecast, and some places getting a little less. Luck of the draw, you understand. 

THURSDAY

Another changeable day. Abrupt, breezy changes are another sign of fall, even though tomorrow will not at all feel like autumn. 

Once we get into the fall, storm systems get stronger. Which means winds get stronger, temperature and humidity trends get stronger. And they happen over shorter periods of time. 

We start the day with the overnight rain gone already. It'll be a humid morning, and if you're exercising out in the early morning sun, you really will sweat it through. 

But winds will pick up from the west and eventually northwest. You'll feel the humidity gradually fade away during the day. By mid to late afternoon, it should actually start to feel refreshing amid those gusty breezes.

It will be warm, though. We'll get into the 70s, with a couple 80s poking out in the lower Connecticut Valley and maybe the Champlain Valley. All under at least partly sunny skies. 

FRIDAY

Back to traditional September, for a little while anyway. A cool, possibly foggy early morning will yield a generally sunny, cool afternoon. Temperatures should peak within a few degrees either side of 70 degrees. 

SATURDAY

Another nice one. It'll start chilly, with lows in the 40s. The usual September dense fog will shroud the river valleys. Sunshine will boost temperatures well into the 70s. 

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY

Changeable, but it's a little hard to give a firm forecast this far in advance. It looks like Sunday could start to turn more humid. Perhaps after a break on Monday, the humidity could briefly return Tuesday. There's chances of showers amidst all this, but we don't know how much rain that might involve. 

The First Windy, Rainy Autumn Storm About To Hit Vermont, Though Rainfall Might Not Be As Impressive As First Thought

Henry the Weather Dog enjoyed an unexpectedly 
sunny day yesterday in St. Albans, Vermont. A
sort of summer/autumn hybrid storm is expected
tonight, with some decent amounts of rain.

Once we get to September, the nature of storms starts to change. In the summer, it's mostly all scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

Sometimes the thunderstorms get a little too rambunctious with high winds and hail, but most of the time it's OK.  

September comes, and the nature of the storms start to change. They become more of a steady rain. Southern Vermont got a taste of that yesterday morning, as a disturbance zipped through with periods of rain. 

Many places south of Route 4 had between a quarter and a half inch of  rain. Under the cloud cover, temperatures stayed in the autumnal 60s in some parts of the south. 

Up north of Route 2, the sun made an unexpectedly strong showing, boosting temperatures into the upper 70s to score us up there a nice late summer day.

Let's get into what happens next:

TODAY

We'll get through the day mostly or completely dry, but it probably won't be all that bright and sunny. Oh,, sure we'll have a few breaks, especially this morning,   A few light reengage showers could arrive this afternoon, but don't count on any rain during the day. 

The upcoming storm isn't fully an autumn type system. It's sort of not quite summer, not quite autumn thing, so there's elements of both seasons in it.  You'll feel the humidity increase somewhat during the day today, a little like you'd expect ahead of an approaching summer cold front.

Winds will pick up today, too, the way they do ahead of an autumn storm. The winds won't be horrific by any stretch of the imagination, But south winds could gust to 30 mph in the northern Champlain Valley and higher elevations this afternoon and evening before the rain gets here. 

Today is not the day to take your boat or kayak out onto Lake Champlain.

The hybrid nature of the storm meaning areas to the south - not affecting us here in Vermont - will be rather hot and humid. With a risk of severe thunderstorms along a broad band from the southeastern Great Lakes down through the Mid-Atlantic states.

Already, early this morning, there were already severe thunderstorms moving southeastward off of Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario. As of shortly before 8 a.m. there was already a tornado warning in northwestern Pennsylvania. 

Which leads us into tonight:

TONIGHT IN VERMONT

The rain and thunderstorms will move toward Vermont this evening. The thunderstorms will become elevated, meaning a layer of stable air will hold near the ground. That will prevent severe thunderstorms here, but still allow for chances of lighting, thunder and bursts of heavier rain overnight. 

The downpours will be interspersed with a steadier light rain, again like you'd see in the autumn. 

Unfortunately, forecasts for rainfall amounts have been trending downward. We need the soaker, and this won't be as great a soaking as we'd hoped. But, anything is better than nothing. 

For now, we're expecting a half inch to an inch of rain across Vermont.  However, there's still a chance we'll get a little less than that, given the trends I've seen in the forecast. 

THURSDAY

Showers should continue into Thursday morning and maybe into the early afternoon. Thursday should also bring a brief interlude of humid weather.  Showers should end later in the day and with any luck we'll have some sun later in the day. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

A bit fall-like again. Our storm will slow down and spin around the Canadian Maritimes, as autumn storms often do. That means at least partly cloudy or mostly cloudy skies, with light showers, mostly over the mountains and Northeast Kingdom. 

It won't be all that chilly, with highs within a few degrees either side of 70 and lows in the 50s. The brief humidity from Thursday will have been solidly flushed out of here.

At this point, Sunday looks sunnier with continued seasonable high temperatures near or a little above 70.

Vermont Has One Shot At Drenching Rain Before A Likely Long Dry Spell

Hand it to the National Weather Service, whether radar this morning is exactly what was forecast. 

Weather radar this morning showed areas of rain moving
northwest to southeast across central and southern Vermont
The light blue shading on the northern edge is just 
clouds and very light rain evaporating before it hits the
ground.. Heavier, more drenching rain is forecast
to arrive Wednesday night. 

Areas of rain, most of it light but some of it moderate, to almost heavy, were racing northwest to southeast across southern and central Vermont this morning. 

Northern Vermont was missing out. Clouds were thick and threatening in northwest Vermont, close to the rain band, but thinner up in the Northeast Kingdom.. 

That state of affairs will continue to day, though the rain in southern Vermont will tend to taper off as the afternoon goes on

North of Route 2, I wouldn't be at all surprised if some sunshine breaks out this afternoon.

A stalled weather front to our south and west is responsible for today's rainy weather. 

Total rainfall through tonight looks like they'll amount to a quarter to a half inch in the southern half of Vermont with very little north. 

Scattered showers overnight tonight might deposit a paltry few hundredths of an inch of rain north of Route 2. Too bad, as the Northeast Kingdom needs the rain more than other parts of the state. 

Under the rain and clouds, highs in southern and central Vermont will only get into autumnal  highs in the 60s. Northern Vermont, outside the rain, could make it into the 70s. 

Our sole chance of soaking rains will come later Wednesday through the pre-dawn Thursday. 

WEDNESDAY

We need the rain, and it's still looking like we'll get a decent dose of rain Wednesday night. 

We'll likely get through the day Wednesday without much of rain. It'll be cloudy and vaguely humid, but any showers should be light and few and far between. Highs should get into the 70s, with some mid and upper 60s under areas with thicker clouds, especially east of the Green Mountains. 

n

A stronger area of low pressure will push that stalled front toward us. The system will fire up severe thunderstorms from western New York southeastward to New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware. 

Up here in Vermont, thunderstorms should weaken and fade away before reaching us, but we do have a shot at some fairly heavy downpours. The rain will reach us in the evening and continue overnight. 

Over all, the National Weather Service expects a nice three quarters to an inch of rain for most spots, with over an inch in some areas of the Green Mountains. Unfortunately the far corners of the Northeast Kingdom might receive as little as a half inch of rain.

The rain will be steady enough, without too many short, sharp bursts of torrential downpours, that flooding looks pretty unlikely 

THURSDAY-SATURDAY

The storm system will amble on to the east, but not in any kind of hurry. This will keep cool-ish, sort of moist north winds blowing. That could set off some scattered showers, especially Thursday as a secondary weak cold front drifts through Vermont. 

This rain will not be heavy, and it will be scattered. Northern mountains have the best shot at seeing the showers.

Day by day, the showers will become lighter and more scattered so that by Sunday, there shield be few if any sprinkles left over. 

Daytime temperature should be pretty comfortable through the period as highs should reach the 70s, with some upper 60s on cooler, northern areas, especially the Northeast Kingdom. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

We'd better hope the above forecast for a soaking rain comes true, as we look to be in for a fairly long period of dry to mostly dry weather. 

Once we get into September, we often see big, dry high pressure systems hang out nearby.  The next chance of rain looks like it will be just scattered showers ahead of a cold front early Tuesday. 

A storm system riding along that front could bring heavier rain to the south. This is a long way off, so there's always a chance that storm could come closer to us than forecast, and give us some rain.  But we'll wait to worry about that in a few days. 

 

Once Again, Close Miss With The Storms In Vermont, Much Calmer Weather Coming In Today, Tomorrow

A likely tornado near Wilton, NY on
Thursday. The storm was only about
25 miles west of the Vermont border at
the time. The storm that produced the
probable tornado ended up in northern
 Bennington County, Vermont later,
but it had weakened
considerably by then, causing
little or no damage in Vermont, 

It looks like Vermont escaped much trouble from the volatile atmosphere over the region yesterday, but it was another close call.  

The only damage report I've seen in Vermont so far is in Westmore, not too far from the western shore of  Lake Willoughby.  A couple of pine trees were tossed down by severe thunderstorm winds very late in the afternoon. 

Things were much worse early last evening  a little west of Vermont in Saratoga County, New York

A likely tornado touched sown around Wilton, New York. The town is between Saratoga Springs and Glens Falls, New York and a little less than 30 miles west of the Vermont border near Rupert. 

Video on social media shows what appears to be a tornado funnel looking north from Saratoga Springs amid what is clearly a severe thunderstorm. The video also appears to show intense rear flank downdraft winds behind the possible tornado. 

The second floor of  house in Wilton was damaged, and numerous trees were reported down. Additional tree damage was reported across several spots in Gansvoort, which is about five miles east of Wilton. 

The tornado appears to have crossed  Interstate 87 (the Northway) near Wilton and Gansvoort. Fallen trees closed travel lanes.   

So far, no injuries have been reported.

The National Weather Service office in Albany, New York is headed out to Saratoga County today, especially around the town of Wilton  for a look-see to determine for sure whether that was a tornado, or just severe, damaging winds. 

The supercell that caused the likely tornado in New York continued on toward Bennington County, Vermont but weakened as it did so. I've not seen any damage reports out of southwest Vermont from the storm. 

We have an interlude of calmer weather coming in. No more tornadoes for the foreseeable future. Let's get into the daily forecasts

TODAY

One last cold front with this latest weather system is coming through today. We started out with relatively mild air, along with moderately high humidity. 

That won't last. 

The front might fire up some widely scattered showers or even a rumble of thunder in a few places. But those showers won't amount to much and many places won't see any rain at all in the north. There's a high chance that almost nobody in southern Vermont will see any rain, either. 

It's too bad there won't be widespread rain. we need it. Spoiler: I'll have more on the lack of rain in a separate post later today. 

The bonus with this front is we'll get another whoosh  of pleasant weather. This will arguably be the coolest air we've seen since early June. .Cold fronts are starting to have more oomph now as we get near September. 

Highs today will only be in the low 70s north. Southern valleys could make it to around 80 degrees as they will be the last to see the cold front. Much cooler and less humid air will keep flowing in this evening. 

SATURDAY

Still looking like a beauty. It'll start off chilly. Another sign of autumn. Most of us will be in the 40s at dawn. There could be a couple upper 30s in the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. Readings near Lake Champlain will be in the low 50s. 

As usual on calm mornings this time of year, we'll start the day with patchy dense fog. But that'll burn off quickly to reveal a sunny, comfortable day. Some puffy clouds will decorate the sky, especially over the mountains. If you are in the mountains, I guess it'll be only partly sunny. Highs should reach the 70s pretty much area wide. 

No complaints, though. If you were planning an outdoor event for Saturday, the weather gods are totally with you. 

SUNDAY

Another cold front should approach Vermont from Quebec and Ontario. It'll set off clouds and maybe some showers north, but it should still be an OK day, as it looks now. The front is expected to stall in a northwest to southeast orientation somewhere near the Green Mountain State Sunday night. This has implications for the weather next week.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY

That stalled front will meander somewhere over the Northeast, but it's unclear exactly where. It's also unknown how little disturbances running along the front will behave, and whether this means any decent rains for Vermont.  

A weather set up like this caused some flooding in Rutland County, Vermont in early September, 1985, but flooding from this coming weather pattern is very much a long shot. I wouldn't worry about it. 

A possible second cold front will probably sweep it all away maybe next Thursday or Friday. Stay tuned.  

No Escaping The Vermont Severe Weather: More Yesterday, Maybe A Little More Today

A distant thunderstorm erupts yesterday afternoon, looking
north from St. Albans, Vermont. Some storms were 
unexpectedly strong Wednesday afternoon, producing
scattered wind damage and hail.

 Yesterday in Vermont was supposed to be a pretty nice day: Partly sunny with just a chance of a shower or garden variety thunderstorm. 

Instead, the weather radar was lit up like a Christmas tree by early afternoon. And an atmosphere that Wednesday morning seemed like it was incapable of yielding any real volatility did just that. 

So, we have more severe storm damage reports this morning. A Chittenden County storm before 1 p.m. knocked down four large trees along Route 2A in St. George. Another good sized tree fell and blocked busy Route 116 near the South Burlington/St. George town line. Small hail fell in South Burlington. 

But we weren't done yet. Another severe storm ripped through central Vermont during the evening, ripping down trees and utility wires around Goshen. Chittenden and Rochester were pelted by quarter-sized hail.

We might not be done with this kind of weather yet

TODAY

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the northeastern half of New England, including the portion of Vermont north and east of Interstate 89, under a marginal, level one out of five risk of severe storms today.

So, nothing widespread, but still, the chance of some trouble. It looks like any area in central and northern Vermont could see an isolated severe storm today. Especially north of Route 2.

The biggest risk is a few incidences of strong gusty winds and hail.  The freezing levels in the atmosphere is a little low for August, so that increases the chance of hail. We shouldn't see anything like David Letterman's canned ham-sized hail, but small hail is a decent bet if any stronger storms form. And there's a chance of a few larger chunks of ice, maybe up to the size of quarters. 

A few showers could break out at any time today, but the best chance of thunderstorms is during the late afternoon and evening. As is usually the case, they will be hit and miss. Some places will see nothing, a number of other Vermont towns will see some rain and a rumble of thunder but nothing exciting, and a small minority might get blasted by a storm. 

One encouraging note: At least one weather model doesn't give us much of anything today in terms of storms. I wouldn't necessarily lean on that model to be right, but it's a sign of hope, I guess.

Unlike many summer days with thunderstorms,  today won't be particularly hot, nor humid. Highs will only be in the 75 to 82 degree range, with dew points in the so-so low 60s. So slightly humid, but not ridiculous.

FRIDAY

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say we will have no severe weather. The atmosphere will be extremely hostile to anything like that, while at the same time it will be extremely nice to us humans. 

The cold front will have passed, leaving us with mostly sunny skies, low humidity and a nice cool breeze from the north. Highs will only be in the 70s, maybe near 80 in the warmest towns in the lower Connecticut River Valley

A patch of clouds could come over Friday night, but they will do nothing other than keep temperatures a tad higher than they otherwise would be. Expect lows in the 46 to 55 degree range, generally. So it will still be a nice cool sleeping night

SATURDAY

At this point, it looks like another beauty. It will basically be a repeat of Friday: Sunshine, highs in the 70s, a slight cool breeze.

SUNDAY

It's not looking so nice, at least later in the day. The next weather disturbance comes through, potentially with beneficial rains. The storms so far this month - bad as they've been - have been hit and miss. Many areas are pretty dry. 

We don't have an absolute guarantee on this little storm yet. It could go too far to our south, giving us not all that much rain. If for some reason it goes to the north of us, it could pull in enough unstable, humid air to give us, sigh, another risk of severe storms. 

At the moment, anyway, it looks like just a light to moderate rainfall Sunday afternoon and night. As always, stay tuned for updates!

Vermont Avoiding Midwest Weather Chaos, Though A Few Storms Could Rumble Through Here Today, Tomorrow

Damage from severe weather in Tinley Park, Illinois on
Tuesday. Photo via Facebook, Midwest/Great Lakes
Storm Chasers

 Midwestern storms - likely a derecho - yesterday made the violent storms that hit Franklin County, Vermont on Monday evening look like a pleasant summertime sun shower. 

The Midwestern storms caused at least three deaths, and I predict this will be another billion dollar disaster for the U.S. 

Intense thunderstorm winds swept from Iowa to West Virginia. At least six tornadoes were reported and more will emerge as National Weather Service meteorologists investigate the carnage today. Two tornadoes struck suburban Chicago, an area that has been especially raked by severe storms and tornadoes this summer.

The National Weather Service had at least 723 reports of powerful thunderstorm winds. Straight line winds gusted to over 90 mph in several Illinois towns. 

In Portage, Illinois, a house exploded because of weather related causes, killing a person there. Police officers responding to the explosion had to walk a mile to the house because fallen trees made all streets in accessible. 

There's no rest for the Midwestern weary.  Severe thunderstorms are likely today in a broad band from South Dakota and Nebraska to Indiana and Kentucky. Flash flooding is also a good bet in large parts of the Midwest over the next four days. 

Here in Vermont, we're going to just mostly watch all this from the sidelines. But we will have some showers and thunderstorms to harass us for the next couple of days. 

TODAY

Not quite as nice a Wednesday as we thought yesterday, but still pretty good. It'll be partly sunny with temperatures peaking at around 80 degrees. It's now looking like we'll have some hit and miss shower and thunderstorms across central and northern Vermont this evening. At this point it looks like maybe only 50 percent of us get wet. 

Even better: So far at least, these storms don't look l like they'll be strong. We're definitely hoping for no more surprises like we saw Monday evening. 

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT

More showers and storms are likely during Thursday and Thursday evening as a cold front approaches. Many places won't have thunder at all, or if they do, it'll be just a couple of rumbles. There's still a chance one or two storms could be strong north of Route 2, but that's really iffy. Shower chances are lower in southern Vermont. 

By the way, we're starting to get out of the season in which severe thunderstorms are most likely. Severe storm season, such as it is in Vermont is usually from around Memorial Day to early August. We can still get severe thunderstorms into September, but the chances of that happening are now much lower than they were at the peak of summer. 

FRIDAY

The first hint of autumn of the season. Well see brisk northwest winds and partly sunny skies. There could be some brief light showers over the Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom. Highs should reach the 70s, with maybe a few upper  60s in higher towns north and some remote areas of the Northeast Kingdom

SATURDAY

A beauty! After a cool start with readings in the low 50s at dawn, we should see sunshine with highs in the 70s. Rock bottom humidity, too

SUNDAY

Some changes to the previous forecast, as it might not be as nice as we initially hoped.  Another disturbance in the fast west to east flow looks like it could spread some rain and showers our way. Southern Vermont in particular might see a good soaking rain, which would be great since they've mostly been missing out on the showers and storms lately. They could really use the rain.

The path and orientation of this weather system is still in question, so expect some changes to the forecast. 

Much Of Nation So Rainy That Widespread Flood Risks This Week. In Vermont, Not So Much

A torrential downpour in Colchester this past Saturday.
Despite that spot of super wet weather for an hour or'
so, Vermont is starting to get a little dry, but we're'
so far not plunging into a dangerous drought like
we did at this time last year. 

 It'll be a super rainy week in much of the United States this week, with flood potential cropping up in huge areas of the Lower 48. 

Today it's the Ohio Valley and southern Arizona. Tomorrow, it's the same places, plus the central Appalachians, with West Virginia particularly in the cross hairs. Wednesday, same places, same risk. 

Thursday, it's a huge area covering the eastern Rocky Mountains and a wide stripe from Iowa to West Virginia (again!), 

Unfortunately, Washington, Oregon and much of British Columbia, ablaze with wildfires, can expect little or no rain for at least the next week. 

Here in Vermont, NOAA has us in a marginal risk of a flash flood tonight in case we have locally heavy downpours, but the risk looks really, really low. 

I'm not hoping for any floods here in Vermont. Gawd knows we've had enough of that in recent years. But with the notably exception of the Burlington area and parts of Addison County, rainfall has been lacking lately.

Dryish areas are close to those few soggy areas. For instance, Burlington has had a healthy 2.69 inches of rain so far this month. Meanwhile, my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, maybe just 30 miles north of Burlington, has had just 0.91 inches,

We're definitely not falling into a dangerous, deep drought like we were at this time last year. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, only the tiniest sliver of Vermont right along the Massachusetts border was considered abnormally dry during July and the first week of August. 

Abnormally dry is a level that's a precursor to drought, though not actually in one. 

Last week's report introduced a new "abnormally dry" region covering most of the Northeast Kingdom. 

As I mentioned above, some rain is in the forecast, but the deep moisture that we had in place late last week and over the weekend is mostly gone. That means super soakers of rain are less likely. 

For now, we're going to see quick-hitting weather systems that will provide some rain. Unless things change, though, I don't see any widespread drenching rains in our immediate future.

As always, here are the details: 

TODAY

The next weather front is on its way for an arrival later today into tonight. That will bring our next round of showers and a few thunderstorms. Before we get there, highs today under partly cloudy skies should get to near 80 degrees. You'll notice the humidity creeping up again, though it won't be as bad as it was Friday and Saturday.

Though some locally heavy downpours are possible tonight, most areas won't see all that much rain. 

Amounts will be highly variable as they always are with summertime cold fronts. But in general, it looks like areas north of Route 2 might see a quarter to a half inch of rain, with a trace to a quarter inch further south. Again with localized exceptions. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

Nice late summer weather after lingering showers clear out early Tuesday. Both days will feature sunny afternoons with reasonably low humidity levels. Not rock bottom, but close enough. Highs should get up to somewhere in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Tuesday night will be our firs real ahhhhh night in awhile, as lows will drop into the 50s,

THURSDAY

The next quick cold front come through. It looks like a fairly lengthy stretch of shower risks from Wednesday night through Friday morning. However, with the exception of locally heavy downpours, so far, this rainfall also looks unimpressive. Stay tuned on that in case there are any changes. Could be, as there's a chance this system could grab better moisture. So far, though, I'm pessimistic on a soaker.

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Once we get this far ahead of ourselves, take forecasts with not a grain of salt, but with a great big hunk of frozen together rock salt. But as it stands now, we have a shot at some delightful weather, with just a hint of autumn. 

Daytime highs under (cross your fingers) sunny skies would stay in the 70s. Nighttime lows would be within a few degrees either side of 50, so definitely some great sleeping weather. 

REST OF THE MONTH

So far, there's not many signs of weather excitement for us, but those kinds of things can emerge as we get closer to specific events. For now, it looks like we'll stay in a pretty fast west to east wind flow. That means frequent but not huge shifts in the weather. Under this scenario, we'd have occasional quick hits of showers interspersed with sunny periods that are neither particularly hot or cool for this time of year.

Since summer isn't quite over, there might be a very warm, humid day or two thrown into the mix, but nothing too scary. 

Smoke Annoying Vermont, And Much Of Northern U.S. Storms/Rain Lurk In New England Too

A bit of another severe risk. Level 2 out of 5 risk of
damaging winds in the Northeast Kingdom and in
northern New Hampshire and half of Maine.
Northwest and central Vermont are at a level 1
out of  5 risk. This won't be as serious as the
destructive microbursts in south central
Vermont early yesterday morning. 

The smoke is back, especially in southern Vermont. Big wildfires in Ontario and northern Minnesota is causing most of the trouble. 

Smoke will be a problem for the rest of the summer, probably. Rain might tamp down the Ontario fires Friday and Friday night, and that might temporarily help. 

All this pollution makes the overall weather forecast a little harder, both for understanding when the smoke will be thickest and how that will affect overall weather. 

Later yesterday, the thick smoke got suppressed south to near the Massachusetts border and points south and west. Northern Vermont got a temporary break. 

TODAY

Unfortunately, satellite imagery was down this morning so I don't have a full picture of what's going on with the smoke. Just a general idea.

However, we know the smoke moved back north overnight, but it's still thickest in southern Vermont. An air quality alert is in effect until 11 p.m. tonight for all of Vermont except the far north. It's part of a broad air quality alert zone extending from Minnesota to Massachusetts. 

Another cold front is going to temporarily squash the smoke southward this afternoon. The cold front has already set off some needed showers in northwest Vermont, an area that could use some rain  Unfortunately, there is a risk of a few strong or even severe storms today. 

It's been a stormy summer. 

The weather set up is similar to Tuesday, when we were expecting a big outbreak of severe storms. The main difference is that it's much less humid than it was on Tuesday. So there's less potential fuel for storms

This time, the smoke is somewhat lighter in northern Vermont. Despite the lower humidity, the lack of smoke means there could be a few strong or borderline severe storms. Especially as a new cold front accompanied by a weather disturbance approaches us from Quebec.

This will not be a big storm outbreak.  Some of us won't see any showers or storms at all. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has much of Vermont under a marginal risk of severe storms, a level one out of five risk. 

The Northeast Kingdom, northern New Hampshire and southern Maine have a higher risk, a level two out of five alert level for severe storms. Far southern Vermont is outside the risk zone. 

Again, this won't be anything as serious as those destructive microbursts that hit towns like Shoreham, Whiting, the north end of Lake Bomoseen, Shrewsbury, Windsor and other spots late Tuesday and early Wednesday.  

Just keep an eye to the sky and get into a building if a storm is approaching. A couple spots could have some damaging wind gusts. The storms should be around early to mid afternoon north, and mid to late afternoon south. Though southern Vermont should see few if any showers and storms 

The good news is the cold front will temporarily disperse the smoke later today, especially north. 

FRIDAY

Should be a nice day. After a comfortable night tonight, we should have a sunshine, low humidity with highs in the70s to low 80s. It looks like we should still have some wildfire smoke hanging around. It's hard to say for sure, but current forecasts suggest the smoke might be worse south and west of Interstate 89.

WEEKEND

Saturday looks rather rainy. Which is good, as several places in Vermont have been cheated as thunderstorms have missed them this month. Northwest Vermont seems particularly dry. The first half of July in Burlington had 1.37 inches less rain than normal.  

You might be able to squeeze in some outdoor activity during the first half of Saturday, since the bulk of the rain should come through later in the afternoon and evening. Early forecasts call for an inch of rain in northern Vermont, with a little less than that across the south.  

It looks like Sunday will clear up in the afternoon. It also looks like it might be the coolest day we've had since maybe the third week in June. Highs should stay mainly in the 70s.

The weather pattern has changed. No promises, but it appears the second half of July might be cooler than the first half of the month. 

Soaking Memorial Day Morning Vermont Rain To Yield To Some Sunshine, Finally! "Omega Block" Looms

National Weather Service radar showed lots of soaking
rain across Vermont as of 8 a.m today. But if you have
Memorial Day plans, the rain should exit by late
morning to yield a partly sunny afternoon

As expected, Sunday was a chilly, rainy mess of a day. There were a couple bright spots in the gloom.

Winds were not as strong as expected near the mountains, so there were no power outages to speak of. In western Vermont, the rain tapered off as expected in the late afternoon, so you could sneak in some outdoor activities. 

Most places around the state had roughly a third of an inch of rain, give or take. That was what was forecast south, but it amounted to a little more than expected north. Good for the gardens, so another bonus there. 

Another heavier slug of rain was moving through Vermont early this morning. This rain seemed to be over-performing a little, too. 

Burlington was closing in on an inch of rain today from this morning's disturbance. Forecasts had called for a half inch. We'll see how the rest of Vermont does once this rain is out of our hair. 

The good news is this morning's rain does not mean we will have another entire gray, overcast day to deal with. 

The rain was beginning to end in western Vermont as of around 8:30 a.m. and should be out of eastern Vermont before noon. This afternoon, skies will turn at least partly sunny, and that should send temperature up into the comfortable low 70s, which is more or less normal for this time of year. 

REST OF WEEK

A schematic from Fox Weather showing what an 
Omega block looks like on a weather map. It features
 a northward bulge in the jet stream featuring warm,
sunny weather sandwiched between cooler
somewhat wetter southward dips in the jet stream.

Something called an Omega block in organizing itself in the atmosphere.  That's when a big northward bulge in the jet stream is flanked on either side by deep dips in said jet stream.  It's called an Omega block because the set up on a weather map resembles the Greek letter Omega. 

They're called a block because these patterns gum up the works so that the general weather stays the same wherever you are in the whole setup. 

Omega blocks are hard to dislodge, so they can last for days or even weeks. 

In this case, the big northward bulge will be in the middle of the U.S and central  Canada. Those areas will  have sunny and warn weather. The "dip people" in the northwest and northeast U.S. will be cooler and more unsettled. 

The Omega block is just starting to set up, so the change toward cooler weather around here will be gradual as the dip sends a series of weak cold fronts southward.  Here's how we think it will play out in Vermont

Tuesday: A summer day. The last one we'll have for awhile. Under sunny skies it should reach the low 80s. Some clouds might filter in during the afternoon, especially north, but that shouldn't make much of a difference in what a nice day it will be.

Wednesday: Still very nice, but winds will have shifted into the northwest, so the cooling will just be beginning. Highs should still make it into the 70s.

Thursday: Cooler  yet under partly sunny skies. Highs in the 60s, so now we're into somewhat chillier than average territory. 

Friday/Weekend: By this time, the coldest air aloft will have arrived. That means the strong end of May sun will heat the ground, which creates rapid updrafts into the cold air above. That means showers. It's a little soon to figure out how many showers and who gets the most of it. Best chances for rain will be north nd mountains. 

Depending on how cloudy it gets, it could get quite chilly down here near the surface. If we manage a fair amount of sun, we could get into the low 60s, still nippy for this time of year. If it's cloudier, we hold in the 50s, which is getting weird for this time of year. 

As noted, Omega blocks don't break down easily once they form. Which means we could be stuck with this cool, unsettled weather perhaps through the first week of June. Stay tuned on that one. 

Crazy Vermont/Northeast Heat About To End; Records Set, MUCH Cooler Air On Our Doorsteps

A sea of lilacs as viewed from my back deck in St. 
Albans, Vermont. The hot temperatures of the past
few days made them rapidly bloom. Hopefully
the upcoming cooler weather will preserve the
blooms and the fragrance for awhile. 

 We just managed to do it yesterday in Burlington. 

After clouds held temperatures in the 86 or 87 degree range much of the afternoon, skies cleared and helped boost temperatures to 90 degrees again. Second day in a row that happened. Tuesday's high fell just one degree short of the record high set in 1989.

Other cities in the Northeast set record highs in a big way.

In Philadelphia, it was 98 degrees, setting a new record for the hottest temperature in the entire month of May. Newark, New Jersey at 99 degrees and Manchester, New Hampshire at 97 degrees tied the record high for the month of May. 

Manchester shattered the record for the date by eight degrees, which is quite an accomplishment. 

Other record highs include 96 in Boston, 93 in Providence and 92 in Portland, Maine. 

All these are extraordinary hot temperatures for so early in the season.  

Back here in Vermont, unlike the day before, the morning didn't start cool. The low temperature in Burlington yesterday was  was 71 degrees, breaking a 123-year old record.

This May heat might portend a hot summer. The number crunching meteorologists at WCAX discovered that if the first 90 degree day of the year hits in June, which is what usually happens, on average the enter year will have eight days of 90 degree heat.

If the first 90 hits in May, then on average 11 days during the year will touch at least 90 

Also yesterday, those thunderstorms failed to materialize in Vermont. As we mentioned yesterday, it could have gone either way.  A weather disturbance that could have touched off some storms passed through the Green Mountain State in the late morning. That was too early to touch off anything more than light showers.

The disturbance did generate some thunderstorms in far southern Vermont and in southern New England. The storms in Connecticut were strong enough to knock down a few trees. 

TODAY

Big changes are afoot, but it will take a little while to get here. 

Early morning temperatures across Vermont were extraordinarily warm.  At 7 a.m, Burlington hit their low temperature for the day so far at 76 degrees. Not long after dawn at 6 a.m., it was 74 in Montpelier and Rutland and 72 degrees in Newport. These would easily be candidates for the hottest, stuffiest nights of the month in July. 

We won't set any records for highest low temperature today because by midnight tonight, it will much cooler than what we saw early today. 

Our cold front looked like it was in eastern New York as of 8 a.m. today and will come through Vermont thorough the rest of this morning.  Forecasts call for highs to get cut off in the upper 70s to near 80 north and in the low to perhaps mid 80s far south. 

Meanwhile, our friends in southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic States will endure one more torrid May day. 

Here in lilac-scented Vermont, though, you'll notice the change in the air today by mid afternoon north and late afternoon south. Even thought the sun should come out, temperatures will be slowly falling amid northwest breezes, humidity levels will fall. Summer will temporally end in favor of spring. 

THURSDAY

You'll need to dig out your fleece and long pants if you're taking your dog for a walk early tomorrow. We'll wake up to early morning temperatures in the low 40s. That's not ridiculous for May, but it is another shocking weather whiplash moment. 

Highs will only get into the 50s to near 60 north and low to mid 60s south, which is actually about 10 degrees colder than average for this time of year. Skies should be at least partly sunny, but there might be some more clouds north and mountains away from the Champlain Valley. 

Away from the Champlain Valley, we're actually back to a risk of some frost in some spots Thursday night and early Friday morning. We'll have more details on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND 

This will feature a standoff between strong, cool high pressure in far eastern Quebec and coastal southeast Canada and storminess to our south and west. 

Depending on how this sets up, it could either be cloudy and cool or partly sunny and seasonable. I'm not yet sure where we're going to go with this. Friday has the best chance of being sunny and nice. Saturday will probably be rain-free, especially north. Showers might or might not come in Sunday, and those showers are somewhat more likely Monday. 

Whatever happens, it looks like whatever rain we get will end up being quite light.

Places further south will have an even bigger change in the weather. Cities like Newark and Philadelphia that were in the upper 90s Tuesday will probably have highs barely making it into the low 50s Saturday under rainy skies. 

Back here in Vermont, we'll probably warm up nicely next week. There's mixed signals as to whether it will be just seasonably warm in the 70s or quite warm in the 80s. But we have time to figure that out.  

Severe Storm Risk Is Still Iffy In Vermont Today. Rain And Much Cooler Weather Tomorrow Is NOT Iffy

A severe thunderstorm over Lake Champlain in July, 2023.
Severe storms are possible in Vermont today, if
the right factors come together. We won't know until
shortly before the storms develop. 

 We're starting the day really mild, especially in the Champlain Valley, where temperatures were in the low 60s at dawn.

Such warm temperatures to start the day might make you feel like that risk of severe storms today will come true. After all, summer-like temperatures equal summer-like storms, right?

Well, maybe.

Meteorologists are not much closer to figuring out today's severe weather risk than they were yesterday. 

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington said in their overnight forecast discussion, we're reduced to "nowcasting," which means we'll only know whether any severe weather looms just hours or even less than an hour before they actually hit. If they hit. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has northern New York and northern New England under a marginal risk of severe weather today. That's level one of five, the lowest alert level. The SPC is also sort of into "nowcasting" with this, saying they'll upgrade to a level 2 slight risk if later forecasts increase the amount of instability in the air 

For Vermont, the marginal risk covers the entire state except areas right along the Massachusetts border. 

One limiting factor might be what was going on just after dawn today.  Light rain showers were over the Champlain Valley, and somewhat more substantial showers were in central New York, heading east towards us. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has for now
kept a marginal risk of severe storms over norther
New England (dark green shading). I the risk
of storms seems to increase later this morning,
it'll go to level 2 slightly risk, like what you
see over Arkansas in this map. 

Showers and clouds this morning would tend to suppress instability, and that would more or less squash severe storm potential.  If skies clear up by early afternoon, we could maintain the instability and fire up the storms.  

The amount of moisture in the air is another key factor. Some forecasts show slightly higher humidity today than what was thought yesterday,  which is good if you want storms. 

But other forecasts mix drier air from aloft down to the surface this afternoon, which would lower the humidity. Pick your poison, I guess.

The wind situation thousands of feet overhead are great if severe storms are your thing. If storms can get going, they have the chance of "grabbing" pieces of that high speed air and bringing it to the surface as damaging wind gusts. 

Whether these storms develop depends on whether an approaching cold front can team up with enough instability from sunshine to allow thunderstorms to erupt. If, by noon it's nice and sunny out, we have a  good chance of some good storms to fire up. If it's cloudy and showery, you can't necessarily kiss the severe storms goodbye, but the chances of them actually happening get pretty low
. 

NOAA says if we do see severe storms today, they'll take the form of either what they call bowing echoes or brief supercells. 

Bowing echoes are short lines of thunderstorms. If you look at a bowing echo on radar, the line of storms is shaped like a backwards "C"  The front part of that backwards "C" that sticks out ahead of the rest of the line of thunderstorms is where you'd see those damaging wind gusts. 

Or, we could see some brief, or what NOAA calls transient supercells. It makes it sound like those poor supercells are unhoused. What they really mean is the supercells wouldn't last as long as they usually do. Midwestern supercells can last for many hours. In this case, not so much. 

Still, those "transient" supercells can cause damaging winds and maybe some hail.  Since supercells tend to spin, we'd still have a very, very, very, low risk of a brief tornado. A low risk but not no risk. 

If we do get those rambunctious thunderstorms, they'll come through between about 1 and 6 p.m. today. 

Overall, most of Vermont will not see severe storms today. If we get any damaging winds from the storms, it would be in just a few spots. But we don't know which spots yet, so keep an ear to weather radio or reliable weather forecasting sources like the National Weather  Service or the local TV meteorologists for updates. 

Other than the storms, today will be breezy to windy, especially in the Champlain Valley. Most of us will get well into the 70s before the showers or storms arrive. 

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

Meteorologists aren't sure about today's thunderstorms, but they are sure we're going to get pretty damned wet overnight tonight and tomorrow

Today's shower and thunderstorms will evolve into a steady rain tonight which should pretty much continue through Wednesday. It's looking like a nice soaker, which we need. 

Total rainfall today through tomorrow night looks like it'll amount to more than inch across most of Vermont. Some areas of central Vermont, especially in and near the Green Mountains, could close in on two inches. 

Aside from brief, torrential downpours if thunderstorms develop today, the rain will come down at a slow enough pace that means we shouldn't see any flooding. Rivers will rise and become turbulent, of course, so kayaking in them is probably a bad idea for a couple or few days. 

The weather misery index of Wednesday is really high, though. With the steady, day-long rain, temperatures should only hold near 50 degrees, except maybe somewhat warmer than that in far southern Vermont. 

AFTER TOMORROW

We still have another round in which we spend several days with below normal temperatures and a risk of showers at almost any time. Aside from tomorrow, it won't be as cold as it was last weekend, with highs most days in the mid 50s to low 60s.  Sunday might actually be a little warmer, getting into the near-normal 60s. 

This pattern still looks like it will hold more or less in place through at least May 18 or so.  Most of the showers between Thursday and May 18 are looking very much on the light side, at least so far. That means it's actually good that Wednesday will be so miserable and rainy.