Soaking Memorial Day Morning Vermont Rain To Yield To Some Sunshine, Finally! "Omega Block" Looms

National Weather Service radar showed lots of soaking
rain across Vermont as of 8 a.m today. But if you have
Memorial Day plans, the rain should exit by late
morning to yield a partly sunny afternoon

As expected, Sunday was a chilly, rainy mess of a day. There were a couple bright spots in the gloom.

Winds were not as strong as expected near the mountains, so there were no power outages to speak of. In western Vermont, the rain tapered off as expected in the late afternoon, so you could sneak in some outdoor activities. 

Most places around the state had roughly a third of an inch of rain, give or take. That was what was forecast south, but it amounted to a little more than expected north. Good for the gardens, so another bonus there. 

Another heavier slug of rain was moving through Vermont early this morning. This rain seemed to be over-performing a little, too. 

Burlington was closing in on an inch of rain today from this morning's disturbance. Forecasts had called for a half inch. We'll see how the rest of Vermont does once this rain is out of our hair. 

The good news is this morning's rain does not mean we will have another entire gray, overcast day to deal with. 

The rain was beginning to end in western Vermont as of around 8:30 a.m. and should be out of eastern Vermont before noon. This afternoon, skies will turn at least partly sunny, and that should send temperature up into the comfortable low 70s, which is more or less normal for this time of year. 

REST OF WEEK

A schematic from Fox Weather showing what an 
Omega block looks like on a weather map. It features
 a northward bulge in the jet stream featuring warm,
sunny weather sandwiched between cooler
somewhat wetter southward dips in the jet stream.

Something called an Omega block in organizing itself in the atmosphere.  That's when a big northward bulge in the jet stream is flanked on either side by deep dips in said jet stream.  It's called an Omega block because the set up on a weather map resembles the Greek letter Omega. 

They're called a block because these patterns gum up the works so that the general weather stays the same wherever you are in the whole setup. 

Omega blocks are hard to dislodge, so they can last for days or even weeks. 

In this case, the big northward bulge will be in the middle of the U.S and central  Canada. Those areas will  have sunny and warn weather. The "dip people" in the northwest and northeast U.S. will be cooler and more unsettled. 

The Omega block is just starting to set up, so the change toward cooler weather around here will be gradual as the dip sends a series of weak cold fronts southward.  Here's how we think it will play out in Vermont

Tuesday: A summer day. The last one we'll have for awhile. Under sunny skies it should reach the low 80s. Some clouds might filter in during the afternoon, especially north, but that shouldn't make much of a difference in what a nice day it will be.

Wednesday: Still very nice, but winds will have shifted into the northwest, so the cooling will just be beginning. Highs should still make it into the 70s.

Thursday: Cooler  yet under partly sunny skies. Highs in the 60s, so now we're into somewhat chillier than average territory. 

Friday/Weekend: By this time, the coldest air aloft will have arrived. That means the strong end of May sun will heat the ground, which creates rapid updrafts into the cold air above. That means showers. It's a little soon to figure out how many showers and who gets the most of it. Best chances for rain will be north nd mountains. 

Depending on how cloudy it gets, it could get quite chilly down here near the surface. If we manage a fair amount of sun, we could get into the low 60s, still nippy for this time of year. If it's cloudier, we hold in the 50s, which is getting weird for this time of year. 

As noted, Omega blocks don't break down easily once they form. Which means we could be stuck with this cool, unsettled weather perhaps through the first week of June. Stay tuned on that one. 

After A Noisy Night Tonight, A Showery Warm Vermont Springtime Week Due

Daffodil shoots really beginning to grow in St. Albans
Vermont. A wet, warm week, marked by balmy nights
should have daffodils blooming in my yard by
next weekend, if not sooner. 

Saturday wasn't quite the bright and sunny day we hoped for, especially in northern Vermont. Instability clouds lingered, leading to a blustery, cloudy day. Southern Vermont did break into the sun. 

If you like sun, this isn't going to be your week, but on the bright side, many of us will see plenty of April showers, the ones that stereotypically lead to May flowers. And spring allergies. That's especially true since it still looks like we have mild weather on the way. 

TODAY/TONIGHT

Get out first thing this morning if you like to bask in sunshine, as there will be only glimpses of sun during most of the week. 

It started out in the 20s for most of us today, but the morning sun will help get us into the 50s by early afternoon. There were already high clouds out there as of 8 a.m.. Those clouds will thicken and lower today, blotting out the sun. By late this afternoon, it will be gray and overcast and blah, with rain on our doorsteps. 

The culprit is a warm front. That will spread a bunch of rain across Vermont overnight and through much of Monday. It'll also get windy overnight, especially in the Champlain Valley. 

That will create the classic Vermont noisy night: We'll hear bursts of rain on the roof and the roar of wind through the trees, especially before and near dawn tomorrow.  Somehow, that kind of weather makes me sleep better, but I'm sure that's not the same for everyone.

The winds will probably be strongest during the early morning hours. During that time, the rain will have tapered off somewhat.

Strong winds from aloft mix down to the surface better when it's not really raining, hence the stronger winds when we're out of the showers.

 This won't be any kind of destructive wind storm. It'll be what we've seen repeatedly over the past three weeks or so. Gusts will go over 40 mph in many places in the Champlain Valley. In the rest of Vermont outside the higher peaks, winds would gust in the 25 to 35 mph range. 

If you've gotten optimistic and put out lightweight summer furniture and decorations, you might find them blown against the fence line by tomorrow bring. 

There's even a very slight chance of thunder, but I think we're a bit more likely to see thunder later in the week. 

The risk of shower will continue through Monday, but I don't think it will rain all the time. 

Southwest winds aloft might limit precipitation overnight and much of Monday might help the Adirondacks block moisture to the Champlain Valley. Those areas might only see a quarter to a third of an inch of rain by Monday afternoon. The lower Connecticut River Valley should also see about that amount of rain. 

Most of the rest of northern and central Vermont should see at least a half inch of rain with up to an inch in the Green Mountains. 

All this will allow rivers to rise again, but it doesn't look like it'll be enough to set off any real flooding. 

REST OF THE WEEK

The "cold front" from this storm will arrive late in the afternoon tomorrow. I've got it in quotation marks because it won't exactly make us cold.  Mostly because it should stall out somewhere near northern Vermont. 

Places north of Route 2 might be a little cooler during the first half of the week because of this front.  We'll once again see that wide range in Vermont temperatures we've seen so often this spring.  

It's a little tough to predict actual temperatures because it all depends on where that front sets up. But for now, it looks like far northern Vermont will hold in the 58 to 65 degree range for daily highs Monday through Thursday. 

Meanwhile, valleys in far southern Vermont could see highs in the mid-70s for three or four days in a row, which its fairly impressive for April. 

The more eye-popping warm temperatures with this weather setup will be the overnight lows.  Minimum daily temperatures Tuesday through the weekend should range from the upper 40s to upper 50s.  That's pretty close to record high low temperatures for this time of year. Confusing sentence, there, but you get the point. 

The warm nights will also ensure that the pace of spring will move incredibly fast. It's possible a few trees in the balmier valleys of southern Vermont could start to turn green much earlier than normal. Here in northern Vermont, I strongly suspect I'll have daffodils blooming by next weekend. 

Disturbances riding along the front will keep a chance of showers and even thunderstorms in the forecast every day this week. It won't rain all the time. In fact southern Vermont should be dry most of the time. Pinning down the exact timing of the showers is of course early impossible this far in advance. 

Have an umbrella handy all week if you don't want rain to ruin your perfect hairdo, or something like that. 

The west to east orientation of the front looks like it could change to more of a north/south arrangement by the weekend. As it sets up to the west, all of Vermont could see a day or two in the 70s or even near 80 if we get lucky. 

If we had to guess when that front would finally come through Vermont and head east, we'd think maybe next Sunday or Monday.  After it comes through, our summer in April will end amid cooler, blustery weather.  

Dodging The Vermont Raindrops In Run Up To The New Year

The triplets, as I call the three big trees in my St. Albans,
Vermont back yard, caught a glimpse of blue sky this
morning before expected rain this afternoon. The lawn
was covered in snow yesterday, today not so much
after thawing began yesterday and continued overnight. 

 We can certainly thank our lucky stars that the storms the originated with tornadoes in the South yesterday are weakening as they head north toward New England.  

Which means we only have to deal with rain, and the temporary disappearance of our snow cover in Vermont, though the upper elevations should be able to hang on to most of it.

We started dodging light rain showers Saturday as the thaw began, and we have occasional bouts of rain to deal with through New Year's Day.  

Yes, this will interfere with your plans to play in the snow, but winter will be back with the New Year. I promise. 

Temperatures were still kind of all over the place early this morning. Burlington, where a steady south wind kept blowing all night, was a balmy 41 degrees this morning. My place in St. Albans was also 41 degrees as south winds stirred. 

Meanwhile, across the pond in Plattsburgh, where winds are calm and the skies partly cleared for a time, it was down to 27 degrees. Most of Vermont was in the 30s, with below freezing temperatures up in the Northeast Kingdom.

There was, once again, patchy dense fog around Vermont and surrounding areas this morning, so be careful on the road for awhile. There might be some spots with limited visibility. 

An approaching warm front will flush out the last of the chilly air that was still lingering in spots this morning.  That means if you see a glimpse of blue sky this morning, enjoy it. It'll be gone before you know it. 

The warm front will bring a quick burst of rain from south to north across Vermont this afternoon. Nothing heavy, and I'm not too worried about freezing rain.  The rain could freeze on impact on a few cold surfaces in the Northeast Kingdom, but it won't be anything widespread. 

TONIGHT/MONDAY

Overnight will have a bit of a balmy but stormy feel.  The burst of rain from this afternoon will be gone by evening, but will be replaced by more rain later on and through Monday morning. It'll get windy in spots, too, with some areas of the northern Champlain Valley and some of the northern and western slopes of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks gusting to 40 mph or a bit more.

Luckily, this isn't all that extreme. Just a noisy, warm late December night. There won't be enough rain or snowmelt to cause flooding, and the wind won't be nearly strong enough to cause any widespread power outages. 

We're good.

The afternoon Monday will feature warm weather, though temperatures will fall slowly out of the balmy low 50s into the 40s before sunset, probably.  There might be a couple light showers around, but no biggy. 

NEW YEAR'S EVE

It seems like in so many years in my lifetime, we have an ill-timed subzero cold blast to freeze us up for our New Years Eve festivities.

This won't be one of those years.  

The day looks quiet and warm, with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.  As the clock approaches midnight, rain will be approaching from the next not huge but still noticeable storm. 

I'm unsure whether the rain will get here by the time the ball drops or whatever at midnight, but it will be close.  During the runup to midnight, temperatures for most of us will be in the 30s, which is pretty toasty for this time of year and that time of night. 

If you indulge too much New Year's Eve, New Year's Day will bring us the perfect weather so we can sleep in. It'll be a dark, rather rainy, chilly day.   Snow will start to mix in up in the mountains, and gradually head toward the valleys as we get later and later in the day.  

WINTER'S RETURN

Starting late on January 1, it should be cold enough for snow pretty much everywhere in Vermont. It doesn't look like any kind of big dump of snow is in the offing. But the increasingly cold and blustery weather pattern does favor at least several inches of snow up in the mountains to grace the second half of the week. 

Vermont Rain Struggling Against Dry Air Today During An Oddly Extreme-Free Spell Of Weather

 If you looked at weather radar overnight and early this  morning, you'd think it was about to rain any minute. 

This batch of daffodils in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens
seem happy enough with weather that has lacked
extremes over the past week to 10 days. So far, at 
least, the weather forecast looks mellow
for the next several days. 

But the rain kept disappearing by the time it approached the Vermont border. Were we in some kind of force field?

Kinda. 

The force field was just very low humidity. 

Dry air stubbornly held on overnight in Vermont, making any inroads the rain tried to make fail. It's the type of super dry air I talked about in yesterday morning's post.  When rain tries to invade, it often evaporates into that arid atmosphere. 

The rain was finally slowly edging into the Green Mountain State as of 7:45 this morning, but it's going to take its time. 

For instance, radar had the rain just to the southwest of my perch in St; Albans, Vermont for a couple hours previous to 7:45 a.m. I could see the rain from my house in the Adirondacks, but it only seems to advance toward me at a crawl.  It took another 45 minutes to just travel roughly ten miles to the point it started sprinkling at my place. 

The rain is moistening the atmosphere, so it will be able to advance across pretty much all of Vermont. But that dry air means it will only grudgingly advance across the state.  By the time it reaches the Northeast Kingdom later today, the weak system causing the rain will have exhausted most of its moisture supply. 

Rainfall will be light, amounting to as much as a quarter inch across western Vermont to only a few hundredths of an inch in the Northeast Kingdom. 

COOL DAY

April can be very temperamental. An example is this
blinding snow squall on April 22, 2021, which was
the second of two very snowy days in an
otherwise warm April that year. 

The light rain will keep the air cool today, holding in the 40s.  In the Champlain Valley, where temperatures sneaked to a little above 50 degrees early this morning, the light rain will chill us back into the 40s.  

Mild weather has been persistent this month.  Starting April 7, each day in Burlington has reached 50 and above.  The forecast calls for temperatures to reach at least 50 degrees for each of the next 7 days. 

Most days have been pretty close to normal, but it's been odd not to have a few chillier days thrown in with highs in 40s or only 30s.

 The only other April I can think of that had no such nippy days after the first week or so of the month was last year. 

For the record, the lowest high temperature on record for this date was 35 degrees in 1926.

I'm sure we'll eventually have a couple more truly chilly days before summer. (Remember last year we had a hard freeze on the 18th, and May 17 of last year featured highs in the 40s with snow flurries).

April is usually a pretty temperamental month in Vermont. Summery warm spells are followed by snowstorms. Warm sun and bone chilling winds can come on the same day, or within the same hour. 

This April has been oddly steady as she goes, at least after we got over that big ugly snowstorm on the fourth and fifth of this month.  And the forecast calls for continued moderation. 

It's as if April has stopped boozing and sobered up for a change. But don't worry, I fully expect our Vermont spring to go on another big bender sooner or later.  

Friday Evening Update: A Surprise Brief Snow Thursday, A Balmy Friday, And Another Snowy Surprise Tonight?

A surprise burst of wet snow Thursday afternoon kept
St. Albans, Vermont looking a bit more wintry than
expected, but......

 Although overall forecasts for yesterday and last night's storm were pretty accurate, except for a two or three hour period where the predictions definitely went off the rails.  

The forecast called for a cold rain, mixed with a little wet snow or mixed precipitation close to the onset of the storm. That would have hit mostly the mountains and the Northeast Kingdom.

And that's what happened. At first. Then, a definitely unplanned burst of snow in the valley an hour or two after it started raining.  It wasn't that big a deal, of course. The snow quickly went to rain again as more warm air flooded in.

Video of the event is at the bottom of the post. Interesting how it goes from an ugly February day in Vermont, to one that's kind of pretty, then back to the drab again. 

It was a pretty dynamic system. So much so that lightning was detected in parts of Vermont later Thursday night. The fact the storm had such energy created more lift in the atmosphere. 

More lift means rising air, and more precipitation. But this lift also helped cool the atmosphere more than expected. At least for awhile before even more warm air flooded in. So, for an interval, at least, we had a period of snow.  

Otherwise, the storm played out as expected. There was some rain overnight, today was mild, and a winter throwback is coming tonight for parts of Vermont. More on that in a minute. 

WARM FRIDAY

The warm air peaked this morning, with temperatures in the 40s to near 50 in much of Vermont. 

....but it quickly warmed up again, and by Friday afternoon,
the same scene looked much more like March than February.

In Vermont, temperatures did not quite reach records, but it was surely much warmer than normal. 

Burlington just missed reaching a record high by one degree, as the high today was 45 degrees. 

Today's current record of 46, though, isn't impressive and I'm surprised it still exists. It's the lowest of any record daily highs of the year. Most record highs this time of year are in the 50s

In southern and eastern New England, and further south along the East Coast, record high temperatures were reported this morning. Boston tied its record high of 60 degrees, just six days after suffering through its coldest temperature since 1957. (It was 10 below in Boston last Saturday) 

Cold air usually bleeds in behind any cold front or storm.  Last Friday, behind the Arctic cold front, the temperature plummeted from the 20s above to near 20 below in the span of less than 24 hours. 

This time, the decline in temperatures has been much, much more leisurely, and much less dramatic than last Friday. By 5 p.m. today, much of Vermont was still near 40 degrees. But that's about to change. 

SNOWY RETURN

Kind of an interesting set up for this evening. A secondary cold front will more convincingly drop temperatures into the 20s. At the same time, an upper level disturbance will come east from the northeastern Great Lakes.

That sets us up for another good burst of snow in northern Vermont. Most places north of Route 4 should get some snow, but the main show will be along and north of Route 2. At least the snow will come in well after the Friday evening commute, so we don't have to worry about that.

Even in the northern Champlain Valley, up near St. Albans, Highgate, Swanton, places like that, we could see a quick two or three inches of snow later this evening and overnight. By the time you get down to Burlington, it might only be an inch or so. '

The snow will last longer along the spine of the Green Mountains and the western slopes. Especially from Sugarbush north. Those areas could see a decent three to six inches of snow, with locally up to eight inches in the ski areas.

That will freshen things up after last night and today's thaw. 

Saturday looks like a nice day for winter sports, too. Highs will get into the 20s, with a few low 30s in the warmer valleys. Enjoy it, because March in February is set to continue. 

A BIG WARM SPELL

Every day in the upcoming week will feature above freezing temperatures in Vermont. Signs are pointing toward a super warm spell toward Thursday and perhaps Friday. Temperatures could approach record highs in Vermont. Right now, forecasters are calling for readings to get past 50 degrees on Thursday. 

The record high on this upcoming Thursday in Burlington is 55 degrees. We'll see how that shakes out. 

No big storms are in the offing until Thursday night, when current forecasts seem to hint at a pretty decent slug of rain to come through. 

After Thursday, long range forecasts are tricky. But current hints are that temperatures will remain generally above normal through around February 24. There could be some colder days thrown in there, but most of the time, it would be kinda balmy for February.

Don't think for a minute that means winter is over. March can be a wintry beast. And I have a post coming up within the next couple of days that tells us there's a decent chance March could turn out to be this year's most wintry month.

Stay tuned! 

Video: The changeable weather on Thursday. First, the day was ugly in St. Albans, Vermont. Then suddenly, it wasn't. Then it was. 

 Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

Plenty Of Winter Left, But Worst Might Be Over

Mild weather Monday left this snow barely hanging on to
the roof of my house in St. Albans, Vermont. Mild weather
 today should allow this to slide right off. 

We all know that in Vermont rough winter conditions like subzero cold and large snowstorms often last well into March.   

However, we usually see in February some subtle signs that the worst of it is over, that we might be turning a bit of a corner. 

True to form, we're seeing that now.  We get a bit of a break from the harshness of winter this week. 

For many valley locations, Monday and Tuesday saw temperatures a bit above freezing during the afternoons for a few hours. The same will be true today through Friday.  Part of Saturday will probably sneak above freezing too.

It's not exactly spring, but the relative warmth is a slight break for your fuel bill, and coaxes you outside, especially if the sun comes out.  We're starting to feel the warmth of the sun coming back just a bit now.

The sun won't be out all the time this week. Small little storms will throw handfuls of snow flakes or a few rain drops at us from time to time for the next few days. We'll just take what we can get. 

As always this spell of warmish weather won't last. We'll get slapped in the face soon enough with harsh winter weather. It is February after all. It's not always a user-friendly month.

By Sunday, we'll be back into the regime of nights near or below zero and highs struggling to make it into the teens. That'll last until about Tuesday, but it could be worse. It has been in the past. 

Despite the start of a waning winter, mid-February can really hit hard.  A tie for the lowest temperature on record - minus 30 - was set in Burlington on February 12, 1979.  Many of us remember the epic Valentine's day blizzard in 2007.

Still, by mid-month, normal daily temperatures start to creep upwards. As of today, the sun sets a full hour later than it did in December. My guess is that we've already experienced the  coldest weather of this winter back in January.  I can't at all guarantee this, but I'd say we won't see the lowest temperature in Burlington this winter, minus 14 again at least until next winter. 

To give you a sense of what's coming, quicker than you might think, the normal high temperature in Burlington is 30 degrees. One month from now the normal high is up to 38 degrees. Two months from today, that high should be around is 52 degrees. And just three little months from now, high temperatures should be around 67 degrees.