Winds Roared In Vermont Friday; Wintry-ish Cold Today; Super Calm Week Coming Up

A brief break of sun over Colchester, Vermont Friday
afternoon before showers arrived with those dark
clouds. The cold front brought much 
colder air to Vermont for today.

 Wow, in some parts of Vermont Friday, the wind really did howl. I see a report of 60 mph from Colchester Reef and several reports of gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range. 

Power outages in Vermont briefly spiked to near 3,000 at one point Friday. 

It was still windy out there this morning, and that state of affairs will continue all day as our brief winter spell has settled in. 

Rainfall was pretty variable across the state as much of it was pretty showery, giving the rainfall pattern a sort of hit and miss quality. Burlington and Rutland had about a third of an inch. Montpelier had 0.6 inches. St. Johnsbury was closer to a half inch. 

The overnight race between incoming dry air and incoming cold air was mostly won by the dry air. The cold air was a little bit slower to arrive than expected. So, snow accumulation is limited in Vermont, mostly just relegated to the really  high elevations.

My go-to check for snow at relatively high elevations is traffic cameras along Route 242 in Westfield and Route 105 in Jay. Neither camera showed any snow on the ground this morning. I'm sure the mountain peaks got a dusting, though. 

Some lower elevations likely saw snowflakes. I noticed Montpelier reported light rain with temperatures in the mid-30s for awhile early this morning. I'm sure that was snow a little higher up on surrounding hills

TODAY

The rest of the day will be partly cloudy, windy and cold. As of 8 a.m. temperatures statewide were within a few degrees either side of 40, and those reading will only go up  few degrees by this afternoon. 

Those wind gusts to 30 mph will make it feel much colder than that. And, to put the final nail in the coffin for Vermont gardens this year, temperatures statewide still look like they'll be in the 20s by dawn tomorrow.

SUNDAY

We transition to warmer weather, at least by afternoon. As we hit mid-afternoon, we should be up in the low to mid 50s, just a tiny bit cooler than average.

MONDAY-SATURDAY

The challenge for me all week will be coming up with things to write about regarding Vermont weather. A stalled pattern means high pressure will remain stuck over northern New England and Quebec, giving us a long stretch of dry, seasonable weather. 

Highs every day will be in the 50s to near 60. Lows will be in the 30s. There probably will be some fog in the river valleys during the mornings.  We might have to watch for some temperature inversions that could keep the low clouds and fog  going much of the day on some days, but so far, the chance of that appear pretty low. 

The only chance of rain appears to be maybe some sprinkles Thursday as a very lame cold front helps reinforce the high pressure nearby. 

Despite the rain we've just had, there might be an elevated fire risk later in the week as all those fallen leaves turn crispy in the dry air. 

Incredibly Persistent Heat Dome Roasts Middle Of U.S; Ring Of Fire Storms In Northeast, We In Vermont Escapes

Schematic of a heat dome and ring of fire, similar to the
one we've been under since late July.  Hot sinking air
creates intense heat in the center of the nation. The 
edges of the heat dome has frequent bouts of 
severe thunderstorms. Graphic is from Iowa 
Storm Chasing Network

The weather pattern in the United States has been stuck since the end of July, which is an awfully long time for things to stay the same. It's been at least six weeks now with the same set up, with no sign of it ending soon. 

That's despite the fact that the season is changing, and weather patterns tend to get disrupted as we head into fall. This is an amazingly persistent stuck weather pattern, easily among the longest and most impressive I've seen. 

Here's how it's working:

A heat dome set up in the south-central part of the United States in late July and it's been there since. 

That has caused some horrible weather in much of the Lower 48. First, the heat: 

In Memphis, Tennessee every day since August 4 has been 90 degrees or more. It was 100 degrees on Wednesday and 101 on Thursday. Today through next Thursday will range from 98 to 101. 

In Oklahoma City, the final week of July featured daily high temperatures in the 100s. Then, 23 days in August reached 100 degrees, peaking at 109 degrees. It should be near 100 degrees there daily at least through Thursday.. 

Little Rock, Arkansas, all but one August day was 90 degrees or more. 13 days reached at least 100 degrees. 

The northern and often northeastern periphery of heat domes are known as the "ring of fire." the contrast between the deep heat and humidity to the south and cooler weather to the north creates intense batches of thunderstorms. 

That's why the Great Lakes and Northeast have been repeatedly raked by severe storms, flash floods and even tornadoes. Yesterday. a band extending from Michigan to Delaware endured severe weather. The day before, it the severe weather extended from Ontario to Virginia, with at least three tornadoes in western New York 

VERMONT CALMNESS

Here in Vermont, the weather pattern favored us. Sometimes, the "ring of fire" storms extended up here into northern New England, which helps explain why we had a few bouts with severe storms in late July and August.

But overall, this weather pattern makes Vermont a calm island in the wild conditions hitting much of the U.S.  Temperatures have been near normal, or just barely warmer than normal. The only drawback is that since we're north of the deep moisture associated with the ring of fire, rainfall has been lacking. 

It's not nearly as dry as it was at this time last year, when Vermont was in a deep drought. But, with the weather pattern stuck in place for now, we probably aren't going to see a super big rainstorm anytime soon. 

The specific forecast:

Today

Overall, a nice one. Partly cloudy, though mostly cloudy over the northern mountains. There could be a few light showers here and there, but most of us will stay dry. Highs should be comfortably in the 70s.

Saturday

It'll be a little cloudier than today, and a somewhat greater chance of showers. But the showers won't be light. If it rains where you are, it won't last all day. Not even close. Most of the day will be dry. Some places will see no rain. It'll be a little cooler. Highs will be in the upper 60s northern hilly areas and low to mid 70s in warmer valleys. 

Sunday

Another nice day. Cool-ish, low humidity, quite a bit of sunshine, especially in the broader valleys. Highs will be in the low 70s.

Next Week and Beyond

We'll continue to see occasional rather weak disturbance come through occasionally with likely light showers. One thing that is changing is that cool high pressure systems that come through once we hit September become larger and, of course, cooler than they were in August. I'm not ready to talk about frost yet, but sooner or later, that's going to be an issue. 

Also, the weather pattern will have to eventually break down. Larger autumn storms should eventually give us some more substantial rainstorms. And, eventually, snowstorms once we head toward winter. 

Once Again, Close Miss With The Storms In Vermont, Much Calmer Weather Coming In Today, Tomorrow

A likely tornado near Wilton, NY on
Thursday. The storm was only about
25 miles west of the Vermont border at
the time. The storm that produced the
probable tornado ended up in northern
 Bennington County, Vermont later,
but it had weakened
considerably by then, causing
little or no damage in Vermont, 

It looks like Vermont escaped much trouble from the volatile atmosphere over the region yesterday, but it was another close call.  

The only damage report I've seen in Vermont so far is in Westmore, not too far from the western shore of  Lake Willoughby.  A couple of pine trees were tossed down by severe thunderstorm winds very late in the afternoon. 

Things were much worse early last evening  a little west of Vermont in Saratoga County, New York

A likely tornado touched sown around Wilton, New York. The town is between Saratoga Springs and Glens Falls, New York and a little less than 30 miles west of the Vermont border near Rupert. 

Video on social media shows what appears to be a tornado funnel looking north from Saratoga Springs amid what is clearly a severe thunderstorm. The video also appears to show intense rear flank downdraft winds behind the possible tornado. 

The second floor of  house in Wilton was damaged, and numerous trees were reported down. Additional tree damage was reported across several spots in Gansvoort, which is about five miles east of Wilton. 

The tornado appears to have crossed  Interstate 87 (the Northway) near Wilton and Gansvoort. Fallen trees closed travel lanes.   

So far, no injuries have been reported.

The National Weather Service office in Albany, New York is headed out to Saratoga County today, especially around the town of Wilton  for a look-see to determine for sure whether that was a tornado, or just severe, damaging winds. 

The supercell that caused the likely tornado in New York continued on toward Bennington County, Vermont but weakened as it did so. I've not seen any damage reports out of southwest Vermont from the storm. 

We have an interlude of calmer weather coming in. No more tornadoes for the foreseeable future. Let's get into the daily forecasts

TODAY

One last cold front with this latest weather system is coming through today. We started out with relatively mild air, along with moderately high humidity. 

That won't last. 

The front might fire up some widely scattered showers or even a rumble of thunder in a few places. But those showers won't amount to much and many places won't see any rain at all in the north. There's a high chance that almost nobody in southern Vermont will see any rain, either. 

It's too bad there won't be widespread rain. we need it. Spoiler: I'll have more on the lack of rain in a separate post later today. 

The bonus with this front is we'll get another whoosh  of pleasant weather. This will arguably be the coolest air we've seen since early June. .Cold fronts are starting to have more oomph now as we get near September. 

Highs today will only be in the low 70s north. Southern valleys could make it to around 80 degrees as they will be the last to see the cold front. Much cooler and less humid air will keep flowing in this evening. 

SATURDAY

Still looking like a beauty. It'll start off chilly. Another sign of autumn. Most of us will be in the 40s at dawn. There could be a couple upper 30s in the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. Readings near Lake Champlain will be in the low 50s. 

As usual on calm mornings this time of year, we'll start the day with patchy dense fog. But that'll burn off quickly to reveal a sunny, comfortable day. Some puffy clouds will decorate the sky, especially over the mountains. If you are in the mountains, I guess it'll be only partly sunny. Highs should reach the 70s pretty much area wide. 

No complaints, though. If you were planning an outdoor event for Saturday, the weather gods are totally with you. 

SUNDAY

Another cold front should approach Vermont from Quebec and Ontario. It'll set off clouds and maybe some showers north, but it should still be an OK day, as it looks now. The front is expected to stall in a northwest to southeast orientation somewhere near the Green Mountain State Sunday night. This has implications for the weather next week.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY

That stalled front will meander somewhere over the Northeast, but it's unclear exactly where. It's also unknown how little disturbances running along the front will behave, and whether this means any decent rains for Vermont.  

A weather set up like this caused some flooding in Rutland County, Vermont in early September, 1985, but flooding from this coming weather pattern is very much a long shot. I wouldn't worry about it. 

A possible second cold front will probably sweep it all away maybe next Thursday or Friday. Stay tuned.