One More Vermont Snow Chance, Then A Frost/Freeze Then Warm Again?

Let's post the first National Weather Service snowfall
forecast map of the season.  Click on the image to 
make it bigger and easier to see. As you can tell on the
map, most places will get very little if any snow
tonight. But note the pinprick yellow spots in the
northern Green Mountains. That depicts summit forecasts
of six or more inches of snow. 

 After yesterday's high elevation snow in Vermont, we're going to do it again tonight, but don't expect a winter wonderland everywhere.   

A disturbance coming rotating around the departed storm that gave us the cold rain and mountain snow Monday will set off more showers. Of both rain and snow tonight .

It's looking too warm for snow in the Champlain Valley, but you never know if a few wet flakes make it in tonight. 

But for those of you at or above 1,000 feet, there could be a slushy coating to an inch of snow overnight tonight. Especially in the northern half of the state. 

If it does snow anywhere, it'll all be very pretty to look at, with a thin skim of snow on the autumn leaves in some areas when you get up Wednesday morning. With clearer  Thursday, the mountains will remain snow capped much of the day. So the sunshine, the foliage and the mountain snow will yield some classic Vermont fall scenes.

Hikes beware: That thin coating of snow at 1,000 to 2,000 feet will become several inches of snow near and at the summits. There was probably close to half a foot of new snow on some Green Mountain and Adirondack summits just yesterday.

While snow and rain will fall lightly in most places tonight, areas in the upper west slopes of the Greens and the summits could see another three to six inches tonight. 

Temperatures will remain below freezing up there, and winds will be brisk. If anybody goes hiking, prepare for midwinter conditions. 

I actually worry some about this with all the tourists in the state. I know in New Hampshire over the weekend, there were a dozen or more rescues of people unprepared for the outdoors. Witnesses saw visitors hiking in short shorts, even slippers and what was described as go-go boots, with no food, water or extra clothes with them.

I'm afraid we might see some of the same in Vermont. Be smart, people. 

FROST/FREEZE

As skies clear Wednesday night, Vermont should finally see its first really widespread frost and freeze of the season. At this point it looks like pretty much everybody will get a frost, except for areas right near Lake Champlain. 

All that light and dark blue you see on this morning's
National Weather Service map are frost and freeze
alerts. After a warm autumn for the U.S. the first
burst of seasonable weather has prompted these
widespread advisories,

Depending on where you are, if it gets to 32 degrees or lower on Thursday morning, that first freeze of the season would be solidly on the late side.

 The first freeze of the season in Montpelier is on average around October 3, and in Burlington, it comes at around October 8.

After a crisp, bright Thursday, Friday morning will probably also dawn frosty, though not quite as chilly as Thursday morning.

By the way, much of the nation has had a really warm autumn, so this actually rather seasonable cool spell is prompting frost and freeze alerts from Kansas to New England. 

BIG WARM/DRY SPELL? 

That cold high pressure to our west bringing our chilly air will eventually settle over us and strengthen. It'll draw warm, dry air from the southwest, probably introducing a long stretch of warm, dry weather. 

Starting Friday, it looks like we could see several days at least of mild to warm afternoons, with most of them being sunny. Aside from morning fog in spots, mornings should be crisp and cool.  If this forecast holds, we'll see the most pleasant weather possible for the second half of October.  

Long range forecasts are tilting strongly toward a warm, dry regime in the East, including Vermont, starting in earnest this coming weekend and lasting to perhaps almost the end of the month.

If the cold, dreary weather has you despairing that you won't get your property cleaned up and buttoned down for the winter, never fear. Ma Nature looks like she'll give us a chance to get it all done.  

A Snowy, Snowliage Type Afternoon Possible In Parts Of Vermont Today

Scenes like this are possible in parts of northern Vermont
today if a passing storm system manufactures enough
cold air to briefly change a cold rain to snow.

 No promises, but parts of northern Vermont could see some snow this afternoon. No, I'm not making it up! 

If it happens, and the operating word her is "if", the snow falling on peak fall foliage in many areas could make some beautiful scenery. 

Here's what might happen, depending on how much cold air can gather. 

A storm system passing through eastern New England will strengthen as it does so. In this type of set up, a band of precipitation often sets up to its west and northwest. That'll be the case with this one. 

That would put northern Vermont in the rain, so expect a damp, very chilly, wet day for this time of year. 

The air will get cold enough for snow to fall in the highest elevations. On top of that, storms like this sometime manufacture their own pocket of even chillier air.  And if the precipitation is heavy enough, it tends to cool the atmosphere further. 

That combination could lead to a mix or changeover to snow in some areas of northern Vermont today.  It won't cause any travel trouble, as the ground is warm. So any snow won't accumulate on roads and such.

But, if this all comes together just right, the snow -especially at elevations of 1,000 feet or more - could accumulate lightly on grassy surfaces and leaves. A bit of wet snow accumulating on autumn leaves still on trees is gorgeous, trust me.  

Snow in St. Albans, Vermont back in
October, 2018. If a storm system
creates enough chilly air, scenes like
this are possible in northern parts 
of the state today. 

So, if you have a chance, and like that sort of thing, head out of the Champlain Valley in northern Vermont and see what happens this afternoon.

The higher you go in elevation, the better your chances of seeing snow. Of course, way up there near the tops of the mountains, the foliage is mostly gone.

So elevations of 1,000 to 2,000 feet are your best bets today.

The snow likely won't be heavy enough to cause any damage to speak of. There have been cases, like in October, 1987, when up to a foot of snow during peak foliage weekend cut power to many thousands, stranded tourists and toppled countless snow-laden trees with leaves still on them. 

That won't happen today. 

In fact, a warning: Maybe nothing much in the way of snow will happen today. 

This is one of those situations where a degree or two in temperature could make all the difference. It might not get quite cold enough for it to snow. Or, some snowflakes will just mix with the rain and not accumulate on anything. It's a tossup. 

In any event, the storm will stall over the Maritime Provinces of Canada Tuesday and Wednesday. That will promote chilly rain showers possibly mixed with snowflakes in the valleys both days.

 A few inches of snow might accumulate up high, like places above 2,00 feet or so. 

That means skies clear Thursday as expected, we could end up with blue skies, snow-capped mountains and fall foliage.  That would certainly be beautiful, too! 

First Widespread Vermont Snow Wednesday Was "A Very Pretty Snoliage" Surprise

Everybody gets excited about the first snow of the season. 

Snow falls in Burlington Wednesday afternoon. Some trees
still have leaves on them, making for some pretty scenes.

Like on Wednesday, when snow fell across most of Vermont. It didn't amount to much in most places, though a few places in southern Vermont did pick up a surprising amount of snow.   

People were thrilled to go out into the snow when it arrived. Never mind that many of these same people will be cursing the snow by the time March and April roll around. 

The first snow of the season is usually pretty benign, and so it was Wednesday.  Pavement was mostly too warm to freeze amid the snow, so there weren't a lot of traffic problems.

That said, temperatures were below freezing in most of Vermont early this morning, so there's probably some icy patches here and there on the roads. 

We got an added treat with this snow due to the warm autumn we've had. In low elevations, colorful leaves are still clinging to some of the trees. This resulted in a classic "snoliage" day in which the snow dusted orange and yellow and red leaves to make Wednesday a very photogenic day.

Video is below to give examples of how pretty the day was. 

This snow was an over-performer.  We knew a weak weather disturbance was on its way, and we knew it would trigger some scattered snow showers.

However, a  particularly heavy batch of snow went through southern Vermont and western Massachusetts Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Most places down there got just a dusting to an inch, but a few spots were nailed, all things considered. A location near Ludlow saw 5.3 inches of snow. Perennial snowy spot Shrewsbury, Vermont picked up two inches. 

Snow dusted St. Albans, Vermont on Wednesday.

A second batch of somewhat heavier than expected snow hit the Champlain Valley and some other parts of northern Vermont during the early to mid afternoon. 

Although the word "heavy" is an overstatement, since most places in northern Vermont had an inch or less of snow.   North of Burlington, the snow didn't melt immediately, and was still on the ground this morning.

It was quite a pretty drive on the way home from Burlington yesterday afternoon as dark clouds contrasted with the white snow on lingering oak leaves and on the dark green pine trees.  It looks like my place in St. Albans picked up about 0.8 inches of snow. 

There were some climatologically oddities in Wednesday's snow. That Vermont would receive a trace to three inches of snow in early November isn't weird - that's not it. 

The stat that stands out is Burlington. Almost always the first snow of the season there (and pretty much anywhere) is a trace.  A few flurries fall, but nothing sticks, and accumulation is regarded as a trace.

In Burlington, the first snow of the season was actually measurable. True, it was only 0.1 inches which is practically nothing. But the fact that the first flakes of the season actually amounted to something - albeit very minor - is odd.

There's been weirdness in snowfall in the region this season. Montreal had its first measurable snow of the season on Monday. But according to some reports, it was the first time on record the first measurable snow of the season in Montreal came before the first freeze of the season. 

This, of course, was just a foretaste of winter. We're not going to see anymore snow for at least a few days.  It'll be too warm. We do have a risk of showers Saturday through Monday, but it won't rain all of the time. In fact we have a shot at a pretty decent Saturday all in all. 

However, a relatively cold weather pattern looks like it will return next week, bringing us renewed chances of light snows,.

Here's a video of yesterday's pretty snow in Burlington and St Albans, Vermont. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that: 

"Snoliage" Is the Holy Grail Of Vermont Leaf Peeping, And It Happened Saturday

Snoliage atop Mount Mansfield as viewed from 
Irish Settlement Road in Underhill, Vermont on Saturday.
The white sheep dotting the green field in the
foreground is a nice touch. 

 I'm sure everybody loves snoliage, even if they don't quite know what it is. 

Snoliage is when beautiful autumn leaves combine with snow to create especially beautiful scenery. Here in Vermont, it doesn't happen every year, but it does occur often enough. 

On relatively rare occasions,  the snow extends down to valleys during peak foliage season, and that's when it really becomes awesome. Most times, though, the snow is limited to the mountains, but it still comes off as stunningly beautiful.

It's especially gorgeous when the skies clear, so you can the deep blue of a chilly autumn sky, the warm hues of orange and yellow and red trees, with snow capped mountains with a few wispy clouds around the peaks being the cherry on top. 

That's what happened in parts of Vermont on Saturday. 

Snoliage, with a white Mount Mansfield summit, and
brightly colored trees, as seen from a field off of 
Pleasant Valley Road in Underhill, Vermont Saturday.

I intercepted some snoliage yesterday, mostly in Underhill, near Mount Mansfield. The photo of it I posted on social media yesterday was a hit, so I reprised that photo as the first image you see in this post. 

Of course, I took other photos as well. Who could resist?  I put some of them in this post as well.  Click on the images to make them bigger and easier to see. 

I also put together a quick raw video of it too, which you can see at the bottom of this post. 

The snoliage around Mount Mansfield on Saturday not surprisingly attracted quite a crowd. 

The parking lot at the famous sledding hill on Pleasant Valley Road was often nearly full, as was a patch of gravel close to the Underhill town offices. 

Back roads like Irish Settlement Road were also unusually busy. 

A snow and rime ice topped Mount Mansfield with peak
fall foliage in the foreground Saturday in 
Underhill, Vermont. 

The best snoliage views often don't last long, and Saturday's were no exception. The beautiful blue skies only lasted from about noon to 4 p.m. and then clouds returned.

 Most of the thin trace of snow and rime ice atop Mount Mansfield has probably melted by now. 

There might be more chances for snoliage over the next week or two, but the beauty might not be as great as Saturday's.  Foliage will go past peak.  But, I'm happy to share a few images captured Saturday.

I'm so glad I decided to veer away from the responsibilities of work and just enjoy an autumn Vermont afternoon for a change.  

It's also testimony to the fact that it's much more fun to avoid the peak fall foliage season traffic jams in the usual tourist hubs and instead try some back roads. They're much more fun. 

Also, the video is below. If you don't see the image for it, click on this link to view. If you do see the image, click on it to watch on YouTube. 

"Snoliage" In Parts Of Vermont Saturday; Wind, Rain To Keep Stripping Leave

Not everybody thinks snow is a great thing during foliage season.  

I took this snoliage photo two years ago in St. Albans, 
Vermont, but people throughout much of Vermont's 
Northeast Kingdom and higher elevations had a chance
to get their own "snoliage" photos Saturday morning.

But it is absolutely gorgeous. 

Especially during a fleeting moment when the sun comes out right after the snow. 

Which is what happened in parts of Vermont and New Hampshire Saturday when rain turned to snow in some high elevations, and in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont and northern New Hampshire.

A number of photographers captured that fleeting moment when the sun lit up the snow and the foliage, just before that sun melted the snow. 

I missed this opportunity, since it didn't snow where I live in St. Albans, Vermont. But it was all nice to see on social media.  I'm reluctant to appropriate photos from social media, so go on Twitter or Instagram so search out snow photos from Vermont and New Hampshire from yesterday. 

Most places that got snow didn't receive much.  The reports in Vermont were mostly under two inches. The exceptions were the remote towns of Norton and Averill along the Canadian border in the Northeast Kingdom.  

Those towns received five or six inches of snow, as they shared in the heavier snow that socked northern New Hampshire.

The good news with the the storm, aside from the pretty pictures, is that the heaviest precipitation came down in the eastern half of Vermont and in New Hampshire. The lingering drought there was worse than in places further west, so this will help. 

More than an inch of rain fell in eastern Vermont, with a few places coming in close to two inches of precipitation. Danville, Vermont, for instance, logged 2.14 inches of rain. 

Western Vermont did OK, so that will help any lingering dryness there. Both Burlington, and my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, Vermont, collected right around three quarters of an inch of rain 

Though rainfall this month is running above normal, we still need more.  There are frequent chances this coming week, though rainfall isn't expected to be heavy.  Unfortunately, it looks like places east of the Green Mountains will get less than locations further west, but what are you going to do.

There won't be any real chances for more "snoliage" either.  It will be too warm for snow all week. Also the rain and expected gusty winds will strip most of the leaves from trees. We're heading into stick season, folks.