Thursday Evening Vermont Frost Update: Protect Your Plants Almost Everywhere In Vermont

Visible satellite photo has clear skies in northern and
central Vermont and high clouds south late this
afternoon. Many of those high clouds are expected 
to clear, so frost and freezes are likely in most\
of Vermont tonight and early Friday.

It's a gorgeous late afternoon, especially north, where the landscape features clear blue skies and the greening hills and mountains around us. 

Southern Vermont has quite a few high clouds. They might save the day, or I should say night, and prevent frost down there. But chances are better than even, allowing a frost risk all the way down to the Massachusetts border.

Frost, if not a freeze, is a given tonight and early Friday in northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain .

The Northeast Kingdom is still under a freeze warning, as it was this morning. But that freeze warning has been extended to all of northern Vermont east of the Green Mountains. Temperatures are forecast to be a little colder there than forecasters thought during this morning. The forecast low in Montpelier tonight is 29 or 30 degrees.Their record low tomorrow morning, by the way, is 29 degrees. 

The rest of Vermont outside the Champlain Valley is under a frost advisory for temperatures in the low to mid 30s overnight. 

Despite a lack of any advisories or warnings in the central and northern Champlain Valley, I still wonder if there might be some patches of frost. I think that might happen in spots, especially near and east of Route 7. Just to be safe, I'd cover up or bring sensitive plants in, unless you're right near Lake Champlain.  If you don't get a frost, it'll be no big deal to remove the covers tomorrow morning. 

As of 4 p.m. the dew point was between 27 and 30 across most of Vermont. The dew point is the temperature we have to cool down to get water droplets and dew.

The dew point is a good, but imperfect predictor of frosts and freezes.  If skies remain clear and wind stays calm tonight, that dew point means it can easily get to near freezing tonight across most of Vermont. 

So yup, dig out the sheets, cover all those brand new frost-prone plants you have and hope for the best. If you have a strong back, haul those big tropical potted plants back indoors if you're in the potential freeze zone. You know the drill

Vermont Going From Summer Heat To Frost/Freeze Cold

A spectacular sunset last evening marked the transition
to much cooler weather after our heat wave. Now,
frost and freeze alerts are up tonight for most of Vermont

Well, our heat wave is certainly over in Vermont as we go back to early spring chill. From 90 degrees in parts of Vermont Tuesday to frost and even freezes in much of the state by Friday morning. The weather whiplash continues. 

More on the expected frost and freeze a little further down. 

Yesterday was a transition day. It started overcast and incredibly warm for May and sort of muggy. By midday, especially in northern Vermont, it turned into a breezy, bright and blue summer day. Burlington reached 81 degrees.

By evening, a layer of mid and high level clouds arrived, with clear skies far to the northwest. This set up one of the best, brightest and most beautiful sunsets we've had in ages. Even outdoing the awesome sunset this past Saturday. 

TODAY

Later, skies cleared, and we start today chilly in the 40s. Those high clouds were still around, so I imagine early risers (VERY early, sunrise was at 5:198 a.m) saw a fantastic sunrise.

If it isn't sunny where you are, it should gradually become so this morning, at least if you're in northern and central Vermont.. The south will tend to stay rather cloudy much of the day, but these will mostly be those high and middle level clouds so some sun should get through. 

Highs should only get within a few degrees of 60 for highs today. It'll be cooler than that north and mountains. That'll set us up for night that will make your plants shiver. Or worse. 

TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY

You'd think with a high today in the 55 to 62 degree range, frost would be pretty scattered and light. But the air mass coning in is exceptionally dry. The drier the air, the more it can cool off on clear, calm nights. 

It's why deserts can be 100 degrees or more during the day and near freezing at night.

As such, the National Weather Service has issued a frost advisory for all of Vermont and northern New York except the Champlain Valley. A freeze warning is up for the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks of New York for expected temperatures below 32 degrees.

For now, the Champlain Valley, west of Route 7 looks safe. Maybe. Look for updates this afternoon because updated forecasts might well be colder than I'm depicting here. 

The National Weather Service is considering an upgrade to a freeze warning in north central Vermont, and maybe issuing a frost advisory for the Champlain Valley. Those meteorologists are waiting on updated guidance this afternoon before they decide what to do. 

Despite the warm climate changed springs we've had in recent years, I guess that old adage is still true. Don't put out sensitive plants like tomatoes until after Memorial Day.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

After the morning frost, Friday itself should be gorgeous with sunshine and highs well into the 60s to around 70.

The rest of the weekend is still a pretty big question mark. Saturday looks dry, according to most computer models. But they are disagreeing on whether rain comes in Sunday, and if so how much. Monday has a better shot at getting wet, but again, the timing and amount of rain are still very, very open to debate.

Frost, Freezes In Vermont Tonight. Protect Those Gardens

Tree foliage frozen to death during a destructive 
freeze in May, 2023.  Freeze warnings and frost
advisories are in effect in and around Vermont
tonight. It won't be as bad as 2023, but 
sensitive plants and gardens will 
need protection tonight. 

After a cool, cloudy afternoon in Vermont we're in for a frosty night with freezes, so it's time to cover sensitive plants and protect crops.    

The clouds and light showers north will tend to evaporate as the sun goes down this evening. Temperatures this afternoon were only in the 50s, so readings won't have far to go to get close to the freezing mark. 

Eventually, skies will become clear, which would make it even colder.  

So: A freeze warning is up for all of Vermont except the Northeast Kingdom, the Champlain Valley and the lower Connecticut River Valley south of Springfield. 

In those areas covered by the freeze warning, expect temperatures to fall to between 29 and 32 degrees by dawn. The freeze could damage crops and gardens. 

We'll have to watch apple and strawberry growers and wineries. This won't be as bad a freeze as the one in May, 2023, which cost farmers and other growers roughly $10 million in crop losses.  

The freeze tonight will not feature temperatures as low as on May 18, 2023. Also, that year featured a really premature spring, much more than this year. So plants and blooms were further along than they are this year, which left them more prone to damage. The hard 2023 freeze also covered the entire state, causing damage all across Vermont. 

Still, this one could be expensive, if farmers aren't able to take measures to protect crops, or if it unexpectedly gets colder than forecast. 

The Northeast Kingdom is not under any advisories or warnings because the growing season has not really started yet in that colder corner of Vermont. 

A frost advisory is in effect for all of the rest of Vermont I haven't mentioned yet. Except Grand Isle County. The islands in Lake Champlain should stay safely above freezing due to the comparatively warm lake water that will temper the chill in the air just a little. 

There might be some frost away from Lake Champlain tomorrow night, too. But increasing cloudiness and a warming air mass means it won't be as cold tomorrow night as tonight will be. 

Cold Spell Of Vermont May Weather Continues With Snow, Freezes; Chilly Pattern To Continue

Daffodils enjoy some morning sun today in St. Albans,
Vermont. Cool weather has kept the daffodils blooming

Friday's weather in Vermont made a liar out of me. 

I said the other day we wouldn't get snow this week or next, except maybe at the tippy top of the mountains. 

Well, when I was in Enosburg Falls, Vermont yesterday, there was a graupel shower. While I was trying to mow a lawn, for gawd's sake. 

Graupel is that sleety, white snow that looks like it partly melted and refroze on the way down. Just regular snowflakes were spotted Friday in Readsboro, in southern Vermont. 

The place in Readsboro where it snowed is at a pretty high elevation, but not at the summit of any mountains. I'm sure it snowed in other places as well. Killington Ski Resort still has a trail with many feet of snow on it. They traditionally close for the season around Memorial Day or at about June 1. 

At this rate in the cool weather, Killington will be open to skiers all summer. I don't really believe that, but the chilly weather is starting to slow down the pace of spring. 

Last night was cold, too. Morning lows today in the Champlain Valley were in the mid-30s, so I think a frost advisory should have been issued there. A hard freeze hit some places away from the lake this morning. Montpelier got to at least 27 degrees and Morrisville was at 27 at 6 a.m. 

Saranac Lake, the perennial cold spot in the Adirondacks, was at a frigid 21 degrees at 6 a.m. today. 

On the bright side, it's not hot and humid, which would be even worse than the fleece and jacket weather we've been having. And the cold air keeps the early spring flowers going for longer. My daffodils look fantabulous this year. 

WHAT'S NEXT?

It'll be a little warmer this weekend, but not spectacularly so. And it's back to cool weather next week, though. And even though we'll see frequent chances of showers, we're not really going to get all the rain we need, either. 

A warm front of sorts is lifting up through Vermont today.  That means far southern Vermont should actually see some rain today, with maybe a quarter to a third of an inch down there.  It was already raining near the Massachusetts border early this morning. 

After a lot of morning sun, it will tend to cloud up this afternoon north. Central and northern Vermont will see little if any rain later today, and maybe just some light, boring showers tonight. 

A few showers might splatter down on Mother's Day, but they'll be hit and miss, won't last long and won't amount to much. Sunday will also actually feature normal temperatures for this time of year, with highs well into the 60s.

Enjoy the brief heat while you can. 

We'll be back down with 50s for highs during the first half of the week, which will be about ten degrees below normal. There's a chance of frost this coming Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

It still looks like it might warm up somewhat during the second half of next week.  Current projections suggest temperatures will head toward normal May levels. That's mid 60s to around 70.  Rainfall will probably stay scant for at least a week, probably more.  

The Vermont Rain Has Arrived. So Has The Cooler Air. How Cool And How Much Rain?

This cluster of daffodils in my St. Albans, Vermont
garden, photographed yesterday, to me looks like
an audience in a theater waiting for the show to start
If the show was needed rain, it started overnight. 

 The rain arrive on schedule overnight in Vermont, but it looks like we're getting cheated out of a good soaking. Which is too bad, we needed it. 

'Don't get me wrong. What rain we're getting is extremely helpful. We don't have to worry about brush and forest fires today. 

 Things are rapidly greening up, and I noticed this morning the rain gave everything an added boost. It's noticeably greener looking out my window than it was even yesterday afternoon. 

The rain soaked northern New York nicely as it lingered there late yesterday and last night. The system will get reinvigorated as it enters eastern New England, so they'll get a good soaking. 

For us in Vermont. Pfft. Through 8 a.m. rainfall tolls were only around a tenth of an inch north and central, and a closer to a quarter inch south, give or take. 

This morning's weekly U.S. Drought Monitor has halted, at least for now, an improving trend we've seen this spring in Vermont. This morning's report extends drought that had been limited to a small area near White River Junction and Springfield all the way down the Connecticut River Valley to Brattleboro. 

Southern Vermont remains abnormally dry, while northern Vermont is still out of any trouble. I don't think we're going to return to the severe drought we had last summer and fall, but as Lynn Anderson sang, "Along with the sunshine, there's got to be a little rain sometime." 

It was still raining a little in northern Vermont as of 9 a.m. and showers should continue through the day. So what I gave you isn't the final totals.  We also still have an unsettled weather pattern to look forward to, but it doesn't look that wet, at least initially. 

THE SET UP

The cooler weather pattern is getting established, as we've been talking about all week. 

The core of the cooler air seems to want to mostly center itself near the Great Lakes. That region will be colder relative to average than we are here in Vermont. Forecasts can change, but for now, it looks like we'll  be cooler than average for a few days. 

We might temporarily get some near normal temperatures for early next week. Maybe even a couple degrees warmer than average if we're lucky. Then temperatures will probably slide back down toward slightly cooler than average later in the week.  

But it's not looking like we will get super cold for May. It's also appears we won't get much rain over the next few days. But the pace of that rainfall might pick up later next week. 

THE DETAILS

Today

Sorry if today is your only day off this week.  It's by far the worst weather day of the week.   The mild, sunny weather is so, so over. At least for awhile. 

Even it it doesn't rain much more today, skies will remain cloudy, there will always be a risk of a shower and temperatures should stay in the cool 50s. 

A few showers should keep going tonight, but they'll be mostly light and mostly in the hills and mountains. Some snow could fall above 2,000 feet in elevation, but it won't amount to much. 

Friday

Actually, not bad! We're a little more optimistic about tomorrow than we were earlier this week. We can expect a fair amount of sun, mixed with clouds especially over the mountains. There could be some isolated light showers, but they'll be brief and over or near the mountains. 

Highs should get into the low 50s for most  of us. That's about 10 degrees colder than average. Cold just ain't what it used to be earlier this spring. 

It's getting to the time of  year when forecasters mention frost and freezes. The National Weather Service regards May 1 as the start of the growing season in the Champlain Valley. With that, I'm guessing they could issue a frost advisory for the valley tomorrow night. The rest of Vermont won't see any advisories because the growing season there hasn't "officially" started.

But it will be in the low to mid 30s in the Champlain Valley and near 30 elsewhere. You'll want to take sensitive plants indoors. Whatever is growing in your perennial garden should be fine, though, despite the expected frost. 

Saturday/Sunday

Similar to Friday, but with a few more clouds in the afternoon and a slightly greater chance of light afternoon showers.  Sunday should also be partly sunny with a very slight chance of light showers, mainly over the hills. Highs should make it into the low and mid 50s both days.  So, an OK weekend, really. 

Next Week

The weather pattern will reinforce itself with a new Canadian cold front. South winds ahead of the front should warm us back up into the 60s.  A dip in the jet stream should stay centered near the Great Lakes next week ,hence the relatively colder air there.

This arrangement means there will be a south to southwest flow of air over us. That would slow down that cold front somewhere over the Northeast, 

For us, that means it won't be particularly warm, but the pattern  opens the door to small storms coming at us from the southwest. That might mean somewhat more substantial rains.  Nothing scary, but we have the potential for a needed soaker or two. Stay tuned to see whether that actually pans out. 

The dip in the jet stream might shift east somewhat later in the week, which would cool us in New England down again. 

Other States Having Bad Weather Too: Florida Fire And Ice, Hawaii Flood, California Whiplash

Aerial view of one of the brush fires burning
in Florida. Drought, freeze damage, dry air
and gusty winds are causing several
wildfires around Florida. 

While all eyes are on the Blizzard of '26 ripping through the Northeast today, a few other areas of the United States are having their share of troubles, too. Florida is burning, and freezing again. Hawaii is flooding. Some of that deep snow California just got is about to wash away. 

Let's take a look, 

FLORIDA

After some record heat as relief from the freezes earlier this month, that New England nor'easter is pushing another shot of cold, dry air down into Florida. 

Freeze warnings once again cover most of Florida, extending as far down as southwest Florida below Naples. The freezes will hit areas already devastated by record cold in the opening week of February. 

Crops had just been replanted and had been growing in consistently warmer weather over the past two weeks. This will add to the destruction. One example is a tree farm in Indiantown consists mostly of just brown trees gutted and wilted by freezes earlier this month.

Worse, Florida is in a severe drought and the nor'easter is bringing gusty, very dry winds into the state today. Florida has had numerous wild lands fires this month already. The fire danger is almost off the charts today. 

One large fire blasted through 500 acres in Osceola County, Florida over the weekend.  Another brush fire earlier this month spread to a company that makes plastic pots and other equipment for plant nurseries. That fire sent thick clouds of black smoke billowing into the air.

It will turn warmer again in Florida later this week and it appears the frost danger will be over after Tuesday morning. However, not enough rain is expected to ease the drought, so the fire danger will probably last well into the spring. 

HAWAII

Torrential rains struck the island of Oahu in Hawaii over the weekend, causing some serious flash flooding. One town had 1.3 inches of rain in just a few minutes as the downpours passed through. 

Drone footage showed several homes flooded in Wailalua, as residents were evacuated by local officials.  Several roads were closed as water swept over them. The city and county on Honolulu have set up an online for for Oahu resident to report flood damage. 

Other video showed a stormwater easement that has never caused trouble gushing upward and pushing water into at least two homes. 

Moanalua Stream reached a record flood stage at 10.76 feet. KHON news showed video of many streets underwater, and torrents of muddy water pouring down steep hillsides. W driveways. ater lapped at doorsteps and flooded

The Honolulu Zoo also closed due to the heavy rain.

You can't directly blame a storm like this on climate change, but the Hawaiian storm is consistent with climate change's ability to make rain events more intense. 

Flood watches remained in effect until later today for large parts of the Hawaiian islands

The flooding was the second destructive storm in Hawaii this month. High winds on February 7 and 8 caused widespread damage in Hawaii on February 7-8.

CALIFORNIA

Last week, the higher elevations had a TON of snow last week. Snow fell at elevations as low as 2,000 feet. Higher elevations above 7,000 or 8,000 feet had 7 to 11 feet of snow 

Rain will fall tomorrow at elevations of up to 9.500 feet in California as the weather system is coming from the tropics. There is a flood risk, but on the bright side, the rainfall won't be super heavy. The flooding might occur on lower elevations that got some unusual snow last week. The melting snow and rain could raise river levels.

Higher up, the rain will just soak into the 7 to 10 feet of snow from last week. In a way, this is good, because it will increase the water content in the snow.

The rain will probably ruin what many in California said was some of the best powder days of their lives at resorts like Kirkwood. If you want to vicariously live through such a day in the California Sierras, click here for a Tahoe Mountain Life video showing the joy of eight feet of new powder on a bluebird winter day.

Florida Freezes To Mess Up Your Grocery Bill

Farmers at Southern Hill Farm in Clermont,
Florida tried encasing crops in ice which
counterintuitively protects crops from harsh
freezes. Many farmers do this. But the 
cold was so intense in Florida the icing
did not work in many cases. Photo
from Southern Hill Farm via Facebook

This winter's cold is turning out to be expensive. And I'm not just talking about your heating bill. 

If you like fruits and vegetables, the price is probably going to spike soon, if it hasn't started to do so already thanks to those big Florida freezes. If you're tired of rising grocery prices, this isn't the news you want to hear. 

Some towns and cities hit all-time record lows for the month of February last weekend to kill off whatever didn't die in previous freezes this winter. 

The state was hit by a freeze back on December 30, with more freezes in mid-January before a series of frigid nights began around in the final week of January and intensified in February. 

It takes awhile for freeze damage to crops to become fully apparent. Farmers and agricultural organizations in Florida are just starting to assess the damage. So far, it's not looking good. 

CENTRAL FLORIDA

In central Florida, WFTV reports total losses at central Florida blueberry farms: 

"At H&A Farms, owner Michael Hill says his blueberry crop was wiped out because of the cold snap over the weekend. 'This whole farm is a complete loss,' They have a thousand acres of blueberry plants around the state. He cut into a blueberry to us the inside. "That's all brown. It's supposed to be green. 

Hill says they pack 40 percent of Florida's blueberries, which go to stores like Publix, Aldi and Costco. And because these berries died, Michael says he will no longer need the 2,000 workers to pick them in the fields or the hundreds needed to pack them."

The crop losses will have a ripple effect. Forklift operators, quality control specialists, shipping coordinators, boxers, stackers, packers, all those occupations in Florida blueberry industry vanished in a single night of cold weather. 

At one citrus farm in Plant City, in central Florida east of Tampa, temperatures remained below 28 degrees for more than six hours on both last Friday and Saturday nights. Even with covering trees with ice to protect the crops, damage starts when temperatures fall to 28 degrees or lower for four consecutive hours. 

At least eight to 10 percent of the current citrus crop was destroyed, making this the worst citrus freeze since at least 2010. Future citrus crops might be affected, too. 

"There will be heavy leaf loss from the frost damage and some of the young trees we've planted over the past ew months probably won't make it,' Trevor Murphy, the citrus grower in Plant City told AccuWeather. "The bloom and new flush on the trees will not make it either - we should have our main bloom toward the end of February into the first part of March. It'll be a few days until we start seeing leave and fruit drop. Coldest and longest duration of cold I've had since I've been growing oranges."

Also in Plant City, a farmer named Jonathan Allen, said his 120-acre field of sweet corn was wiped out. When farmers get desperate, they get creative. He tried building a berm and flooding the field to create a warmer microclimate, but the wind was so strong the subzero cold blasted right through the fields.  

"This freeze is the worst that I can remember, probably worse than 1989....Across the board it's devastation, complete devastation."

SOUTH FLORIDA

The more recent cold wave, on the weekend of January 31-February 1 blew all the way through South Florida and beyond. A town in Cuba reached 32 degrees, the first time on record that anyplace in Cuba reached the freezing point. 

Unlike previous cold waves, then, South Florida agriculture was trashed.  

As Axios Miami reports: 

Markon Cooperative, a North American produce supplier, wrote in market update on Wednesday that "recent freezing temperatures across Florida will  have a major impact on current crop production."

So yeah, that's really bad, since so much of our stuff comes from Florida. And I"m unsure how Trump's tariffs affect the price of food coming in from different nations, like Mexico. 

 Axios Miami says Markon Cooperatives affiliated squash growers report more than 50 percent of that crop has been lost. Bell pepper loses are at nearly 50 percent. Tomato growers say their fields have definitely suffered damage, but how much was still being assessed at the end of this week.

 One tomato grower told CBS Miami that a good 20 percent of his crop was probably lost. 

LANDSCAPES AND FIRES

Across most of Florida, plants, palms and some trees are now brown, wilted and battered. Some people, assuming climate change made them safe, planted tropical trees and plants in central Florida that don't tolerate freezes. 

These plants had managed to grow for years in warmer winters, only to be wrecked by this month's freeze. Proving the climate change is uneven. The general warming trend is punctuated by extremes, like the Arctic cold Florida has experienced lately.  

Floridians are being advised to leave their trashed landscaping alone for now. Then, when spring buds and shoots begin to appear, property owner will know what is destroyed and has to be removed or trimmed and which plants will survive.

Lastly, Florida now faces an increased fire risk. The state is often prone to wildfires in late winter and early spring, as the usual warm season thunderstorms are usually absent. And right now, almost all of Florida is experiencing a drought. 

This year, because of the freeze, the landscape isn't as green as it usually is. There's now a lot of dead vegetation that can easily make fires spread quickly.  Several fires were already burning before last weekend's freeze, and this will just make things worse.

No rain is forecast in central and southern Florida for at least the next seven days. Northern Florida is expecting only light rain at best.

At least it's starting to warm up in Florida. Another frost is expected tonight in far northern parts of the Sunshine State. But after that, for the foreseeable future, anyway, further frosts are unlikely for at least a week or two, if not more. 

Nasty Storm Due In Vermont/Northeast Thursday Night And Friday

The snow is too deep for little Henry the Weather Dog
to explore the backyard, so I dug a series of paths
through the snow so he can at least sniff around in
some places. A late week storm looks like it
will melt most of this snow, so Henry might
once again get an opportunity to go anywhere
he wants in the yard. 

The upcoming break from the relentless chill we've endured this month is not going to be a nice one. 

It's going to get stormy. 

It's a little soon to give you exactly what will happen Thursday night and Friday, and exactly when they will happen. Whatever we get, you're definitely going to notice it.

But it looks like we have a lot of rain, wind and then a sudden freeze and a little snow to deal with in that episode. 

Before we get there, we will manage a quiet weather interlude with a warming trend. 

Low temperatures this  morning were chilly, but much warmer than forecasts from a few days ago anticipated.  Instead of subzero weather, we had lows in the upper single number and low teens east, and low 20s in the Champlain Valley. 

It won't warm up all that much today, but readings in the upper 20s to near 30 aren't terrible, at least. Still a tad colder than average, but manageable. 

South winds ahead of small storm passing far to our north should bring in clouds and maybe few light snow showers north. In the Champlain Valley, those might even mix with sprinkles as warmer air comes in By warmer, I mean high in the 30s to near 40 in the warmest valleys. 

STORM BUILDS

Then we get into Thursday. South winds will increase, especially in the Champlain Valley as we begin to feel the effects of a strong storm approaching us from the west. 

This thing will have a nice feed of warm. wet air ahead of it, which will eventually engulf us late Thursday night and Friday. 

The timing of this has slowed down from previous forecasts, so now it looks like the worst of it won't come through until late Thursday night and Friday. 

It's too soon to know precisely how much rain will fall or how windy it will get. We'll have that information in a day or two. 

Broad brush, it appears we might have at least a half inch of rain, and maybe up to or even over an inch in spots. We could even hear a rumble of thunder thrown in. The storm will be that dynamic. 

All that, combined with snowmelt, will have us watching the rivers. So far at least, nobody is expecting a major flood, but it's still ironic that at least a little flooding is possible given parts of the Vermont are still technically in a drought. 

The next question is winds. The gales will howl a few thousand feet overhead. But we don't know yet how much those high speed winds would mix down to where we live. In fact, for awhile, protected valleys might not have much wind at all during the rain. That's a recipe for dense fog in this situation, so that's another consideration. 

Some time during the day Friday, the storm's strong cold front will come through. Temperatures should start to crash Friday afternoon, and all that water will start to freeze. We also don't know whether there will be a burst of snow at the tail end of the storm. Another unknown is the precise hour or hours the colder air blasts in on Friday. 

Again, we'll get that defined more in the coming days. 

After the thaw, it looks like it will stay cold most of the time though the end of the month. There will be occasional brief warmups as quick-hitting systems come through, but we in northern New England will ,mostly miss out on a warm weather regime that will embrace most of the U.S. in the days around Christmas. 

As for a white Christmas in Vermont, even if all your snow melts with the storm Thursday night and Friday, there's still a chance that a couple small storms could deposit a little snow by the big day.  

Big Early Season Cold Snap Set To Invade Eastern U.S. Here in Vermont, Frequent Light Rain/Snow

A cold overcast over St. Albans, Vermont Thursday.
The weather pattern over the next several days
will feature frequent bouts of rain and snow. 

For us Vermonters, an incoming bout of winter-ish weather is par for the November course here in the Great Soon-To-Be-White north. 

For much of the rest of the eastern United States, this cold snap might end up being one for the record books. 

The blast of chilly air from Canada looks like it will be much stronger and widespread than is usual for November. 

By Tuesday morning, places as far south as Florida could see morning frosts. In central Florida, the forecast low Tuesday in Orlando is 40 degrees. The normal low there this time of year is around 60. 

Further north around Jacksonville, Florida, they're expecting near record highs in the mid-80s this weekend, followed by near record lows in the mid-30s by Tuesday. 

Across the interior Southeast, they're bracing for hard freezes early next week. 

Further north, snow will be widespread starting Sunday and heading into early next week. There should be flakes in the air from Minnesota to Maine, and south to the Ohio River Valley and central Appalachians. 

Most places won't get much snow. Just a pre-winter tease. But an exception will be areas near the Great Lakes. The lake effect snow machine might get off to an early start with this cold wave. There's potential for several inches of snow well south of Buffalo, New York, and south of Watertown, New York.

Another area that could get a fair amount of snow are the upper elevations of northern New England and the Laurentian Mountains in Quebec.  Some mountain peaks could get six or more inches on top of the snow then already have.

More on that in the Vermont section below.

Widespread cold waves like this are getting a bit more rare, thanks to climate change. Record highs are still far outpacing record lows.

But, given the correct alignment of the jet stream, you can get widespread cold weather. You need a big southward dip in the jet stream, deeper than most cold spells. That's what's setting up for the next few days in the eastern United States. 

I don't know how many cities will experience record lows with this Arctic outbreak. The last time I saw a big blast of record cold air hitting the nation was an unprecedented snowstorm and cold snap along the Gulf Coast last January 21-22.

The cold wave coming in within the next few days won't be as bonkers as that spell in January, but since people aren't accustomed to the cold, it will be super noticeable. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Like many recent record winter cold snaps (Like the Texas freeze in 2021 and the already mentioned Gulf Coast snow and cold last winter), the core of the coldest air relative to normal should sweep mostly to our west and south.

We'll briefly get into the coldest air Tuesday, but for the most part, we just have an extended spell of somewhat colder than normal, unsettled but not extreme weather to deal with here in the Green Mountain State.

We have a series of middling storms coming through, including a complicated mess Sunday into Tuesday. 

A quick hitting cold front is coming through today. We'll have some strong south winds in the Champlain Valley. Rain will come in this afternoon. It'll be pretty light, with just a few hundredth of an inch in some valleys with maybe a quarter inch in the north and mountains. 

Some mountain summits will get some snow. 

We'll get a break between storms tomorrow, with just sort of cloudy to partly sunny weather and temperatures up near 50 degrees - not bad for this time of year. 

Another storm will come in Sunday. In northern Vermont, precipitation might start as snow before switching to rain. 

Things get complicated Monday, as maybe a second storm could move northward along the New England coast. At this point, things should stay mostly rain in Vermont on Monday. 

The coldest air will come in Tuesday, and we should have some snow showers across Vermont, even in the valleys. It's still unclear how much snow will fall, but it's beginning to look like most areas will get at least a little. 

I imagine Burlington will get its first trace of snow of the season either Sunday or Tuesday. 

The first trace of snow of the season will be late in Burlington. The average first snowflake is on October 15. 

If Burlington gets an inch of snow on Tuesday, that would actually be a bit early. The average date of the first inch of snow is November 17. The earliest one inch snow on record was on October 9, 1979. 

The snow will keep piling up in the mountains over the next few days. There's already 13 inches of snow atop Mount Mansfield, and they'll have at least six more inches by Tuesday night. 

Killington Ski Resort is contemplating opening for the season during the middle of next week. 

After Tuesday, temperatures will moderate some, but still stay below normal. 

We'll get into an unfortunate, long lasting weather pattern that should feature a near-constant northwest flow of air. That will keep temperatures near to below normal for at least most of next week, if not beyond.

Such a weather pattern also means the frequent weather disturbances that come through won't have much moisture to deal with. That could spell below normal precipitation, especially in southern Vermont. 

We're still in a drought, so we need the wet storms. Aside from a possible decent rainfall Sunday and Monday, it looks like we're kinda out of luck.   

Cold Vermont Morning As Anticipated, Next Up, A Very Normal Couple Of Days

A cool, breezy October day on Metcalf Pond near
East Fairfield, Vermont Thursday ahead of last night's
growing season-ending freeze.

As expected, pretty much everyone in Vermont had a frost and freeze this morning. 

Almost everybody in Vermont was in the upper 20s as dawn broke this morning. Burlington, in the Banana Belt Champlain Valley hit 32 degrees for the first time this autumn. 

That's just two days later than the average date of the first freeze of the fall. We've had warm autumns lately, so this morning's freeze in Burlington was the earliest since 2019.

Given the last spring freeze in Burlington was on April 21, that leaves us with a 2025 growing season lasting 172 days. That's a little longer than the average of 158 days. 

Usually, on calm, cold clear mornings in and around Vermont, temperatures are all over the place.  One town could be near 20 while another a dozen miles up the road could be in the mid-30s.

This time, the readings were quite uniform. Almost all major reporting stations were at 27 or 28 degrees at 7 a.m. An exception was Bennington, at 24 degrees.

Due to the warming influence of Lake Champlain, I'm sure much of Grand Isle County missed out on a frost and freeze. Especially since the lake is warmer than normal for this time of year. At 7 a.m. Burton Island, off of St. Albans Point, was at 41 degrees.

If you managed to save your garden plants or brought some inside like we did, you have a little time left to enjoy. Aside from some frost in the normal cold hollows tonight, the next chance of a frost or freeze is next Wednesday night, and even that is super iffy. 

Today will warm up sharply, with highs within a few degrees either side of 60, which is close to average for this time of year. The sun will make it feel even nicer. 

Saturday looks like terrific as well, with sunshine and highs in the 60s for most of us. The record heat we had earlier this week is long gone, and it's not coming back anytime soon. 

You'll see clouds coming in Sunday, which would be in advance of a strong nor'easter along the East Coast.

I'm doing a separate post on that storm later this morning, because it's such a biggie. That separate post will include how it will affect us here in Vermont. But a spoiler: For the Green Mountain State, unlike other places, that nor'easter could do more good than harm.  

Stick A Fork In It, Garden Season Ends Tonight For Almost Everybody In Vermont

Agapanthus, an orange tree and other tropical plants on
my St. Albans, Vermont deck need to come in today
amid a freeze warning tonight. Other plants, like the 
half dead thing in the blue pot, will just be
abandoned to the frost, as the gardening 
season ends tonight amid subfreezing temperatures. 

 Well, this day had to come eventually. 

Your gardening days in Vermont are pretty much over. Until next spring. 

The biggest freeze of the season is on our doorstep, and from now on the only gardening the vast majority of us will be doing for the rest of the season is fall cleanup and storage.

 I've got some heavy lifting to do today as the orange tree, the hibiscus and several agapanthus plants in heavy pots that are on my deck all need to come indoors today. 

Who knew an autumn freeze would turn into a nice gym workout?

Anyway, it should get below freezing everywhere in Vermont except places right next to Lake Champlain. 

A freeze warning is in effect for the entire state, except the Northeast Kingdom, where the growing season ended with freezes earlier this autumn. And Grand Isle County, which is surrounded by the warm waters of Lake Champlain.

Even in Grand Isle County,  the National Weather Service is thinking about issuing a frost advisory for tonight, as temperatures might get close enough to the freezing mark to worry about frost. 

Most, but not all of us escaped a frost or freeze last night because clouds and wind kept up most of the night.  But you can tell the cold air is flooding in by looking at the mountains. 

As of 6 a.m., the summit of Mount Washington in New Hampshire was just 16 degrees, with a northwest wind gusting to 66 mph.  They're living up to their "world's worst weather" reputation.

The summit of Vermont's Mount Mansfield was down to 25 degrees at 6 a.m. Clouds might have left some rime ice at the summit. Skies cleared at dawn so you should take a peak at the Green Mountain summits. The tops might be white with ice.

Today will be bright and cool for your garden Emergency Frost Harvest. Sunshine won't help warm things up too much as actual temperatures struggle into the low 50s and a gusty northwest wind will add to the chill.

Tonight is a perfect setup for cold temperatures. The air will be dry, the wind will die down to calm, and the sky will stay clear. Which means you'll almost definitely be scraping ice off your windshield tomorrow morning. 

After our stretch of record October warmth, Montpelier could actually get to or at least close to a record low for the date tomorrow. Their record low for Friday is 24, and that's the expected low temperatures there. 

Any record lows won't be widespread, though. Most other towns and cities in and near Vermont should stay three to five degrees above record lows for tomorrow's date. 

Montpelier's forecast notwithstanding, this cold wave is not all that unusual for the first half of October. Though with climate change, it's been a few years since it's gotten this cold this early in the season. 

Another warmup is coming, starting Friday afternoon. But instead of record warmth, we're still looking at merely average temperatures. Heading through the weekend and into next week, that means lows within a few degrees of 40 and highs in the low 60s. 

Notice I didn't mention drought. There's too much to talk about there in this post, so look for an  update later this morning on that. Spoiler: The new U.S. Weekly Drought Report comes out this morning, and there has been some changes to the forecast for Sunday and Monday. 

A Welcomed Drencher In Vermont After Record October Heat. But Drought Continues, And A Freeze Tomorrow Night, Too

Some pretty clouds early Tuesday morning over St.
Albans, Vermont were the first sign of some welcome
rain that hit Vermont overnight. Many places had
well over an inch of rain, but that won't be 
nearly enough to mitigate our serious drought. 

The weird Vermont October heat wave is decidedly over, drowned by a cold front that brought some extremely welcomed and locally heavy rain to the region. 

The heat did hang on for one more day on Tuesday before the rain moved in. 

I'm not aware of any more record highs in Vermont Tuesday, but several places got above 80 degrees. Burlington had its fourth consecutive 80+ reading before the clouds and rain arrived.

I had been reporting that four 80 degree days in a row would be a record long streak for such warmth in Burlington, but I was mistaken. 

There was also a four consecutive day stretch of 80 degree weather from October 16-20, 1947. So I stand corrected. We did tie that record though. 

Rainfall was gloriously generous in at least some parts of Vermont overnight.  Burlington had 1.63 inches, and my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans filled up to 1.77 inches. 

As of 8 a.m., it was still raining at a pretty good clip in central and southern Vermont, but through that hour, Montpelier had so far accumulated 1.42 inches, St. Johnsbury 1.3 inches and Rutland 1.85 inches. A few lucky spots near and west of the Green Mountains might have rainfall totals near two inches.  

Bennington and Springfield had an inch or less of rain through 8 a.m., but one more patch of fairly heavy rain was about to go through both communities as of this writing. 

This marvelous rain will probably prevent the drought from continuing to get worse for a few days, but will by no means end it. We need inches and inches of rain over a few months to really soak through and recharge the ground water, and once again make our forests too wet to burn.  

Before the rains came, there were some new reports Tuesday of brush fires in Vermont. A pretty good sized one was reported in Bakersfield Tuesday. Some outbuildings were reported damaged. 

To demonstrate how one rain storm cannot erase a drought, there were reports of some minor rekindles of Bakersfield fire early this morning, despite the drenching overnight rains. 

Unfortunately, it looks like there's very little rain in our immediate future. More on that in a bit

FROST/FREEZE

The rain was exiting Vermont as of mid-morning.  There could be a few light showers in the mountains this afternoon and evening, but that won't amount to anything. As cold air rushes in, there could even be a few snowflakes on some of the summits tonight. It's that time of year, folks!

It will be cool today, but since we started the day still on the warm-ish side, we will manage to reach the 50s to around 60 this afternoon. 

Tonight will not actually be the coldest night of this seasonable October cool snap, but if you have plants out there, you probably should try to protect them.

Thursday will be bright and chilly. Sunshine and crisp air in the 50s, with some upper 40s in northern hilly areas. This should make it feel like autumn has finally, belatedly arrived.

Thursday night and Friday will bring the end of the growing season to all of us except maybe some places right along the shore of Lake Champlain. 

I think almost everybody will be at or below freezing by dawn Friday. As for your gardens, I guess it's time to stick a fork in it. Most places away from the Champlain Valley will get into the 20s, with maybe something close to 20 degrees in the coldest hollows.

The average date of the first autumn freeze in Burlington is around October 8, so it looks like this year will be pretty close to average.

After Friday morning, temperatures will rise to seasonable levels and stay that way into next week. That means daily lows near 40 and highs in the low 60s, give or take. 

MISSED RAIN OPPORTUNITY

A very wet, kind of strong nor'easter looks like it wants to get going along the Mid-Atlantic Coast this weekend, giving areas along the coast from the Carolinas to Long Island some heavy rain. 

Usually, such a setup would mean rain for us in Vermont, too. But the latest in a series of big, dry, honking high pressure systems looks like it wants to stall nearby or just north of us, as so many similar systems have done since August. 

That high will probably prevent the nor'easter from bringing much if any rain our way. Some but definitely not all runs of the American computer model do manage to  bring rain from this system our way. The other computer models keep us dry, because they predict the Big Honking High will block the storm from moving north and then deflect it southeastward out to sea. 

Most experienced meteorologists are going with the drier forecast in this case. 

That would leave us with another long dry spell, and an opportunity for the drought to start worsening again.  

Record Heat To End In Northeast and Canada, Though Despite Rain, Vermont/New England Drought To Continue

A person sunbathes amid record October heat Monday at
Sandbar State Park in Milton, Vermont on Lake Champlain
As you can see, the lake is incredibly low due to the
ongoing drought. 

Here in the Champlain Valley, we awoke this Tuesday morning to temperatures in the mid-60s, which is a little on the warm side for July, never mind October.  

True, the rest of Vermont was a little cooler than that, but we're still in bizarro world with the hot October weather. At least until tonight. 

On Monday, more record highs with this extreme heat wave hit Vermont, and many other areas of the Northeast and southeast Canada as well. 

We can confirm these records in Vermont:

84 in Burlington, besting the old record of 82 degrees

Montpelier reached 82 degrees, exceeding the old record of 79. 

St. Johnsbury reached 85, beating the old record by one degree. 

The core of the hottest air that was over our region and Quebec Sunday moved east a little, which is why much of Vermont was one or two degrees "cooler" than Sunday. The biggest record highs were in Atlantic Canada.

Now, four Canadian provinces have had all time record highs for October. The new record for Quebec was established Sunday with a temperature of 87.4 degrees in Gatineau. 

On Monday, Kouchbouguak, New Brunswick, reached 88 degrees to set a new provincial record for October. Prince Edward Island did the same, with a high of 83.7 degrees at Stanhope. Nova Scotia set a new October record with a reading of 87 degrees in Upper Stewiacke.

All-time October record highs were also set in several Maine cities, including 87 degrees in Fryburg, 86 in Augusta, 84 in Houlton and Presque Isle and 83 in Caribou. 

This has been an incredible heat wave for North America, as more than 2,000 cities and towns have set new record highs in the past six days. Some more records could well fall today in New England and far southeastern Canada.

VERMONT TODAY/TONIGHT

Things will start to change radically today here in the Green Mountain State to something more akin to normal. A long awaited cold front is about to slap us back into autumn. 

The first half today will bring more of the same. Temperatures will start to shoot up under sunny skies before noon. It could hit 80 degrees or a little more in Vermont before the clouds and rain arrive. 

I don't think we'll have record highs again today. The record highs for today are 83 in Burlington and Montpelier and 87 in St. Johnsbury. But, you never know, there could be surprises. 

Although the humidity is beginning to creep up ahead of the cold front, the winds are also increasing. Since things are so bone dry, the fire danger will be sky high today until the rain arrives,  The wind will make it worse, as the gusts would make blazes spread easily. 

That rain won't get here really until mid to late afternoon, so we have until then to worry about fires. The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation rates the fire danger as high to very high today. 

The amount of rain that's coming still looks pretty good. It will actually come down hard at times tonight. Overall, most of us should get three quarters of an inch to an inch of rain, give or take, by tomorrow morning. 

That'll tamp down the fire risk for awhile, but not end the drought by any stretch of the imagination. 

COLD AIR BLASTS IN

It's going to feel awfully cold tomorrow into Friday after the cold front goes by.  Temperatures will actually not be at all weird for October over the coming days, but this will be traditional flannel and fleece October weather. 

It'll be party cloudy tomorrow, kind of windy from the north and chilly. Highs should stay in the 50s to low 60s, which is pretty close to normal. 

The cold air will keep coming in tomorrow night. Some low clouds might leave rime ice on the mountain tops for the first time this season. Don't be surprised if the tops of mountains like Camels Hump or Mount Mansfield look a little white. A harbinger of things to come. 

Some of us will also have near our below freezing temperatures to start Thursday. Thursday itself will be bright and chilly, a classic fall day. Sunshine will barely help make it feel warmer as highs just reach the 50s. 

Thursday night and Friday morning will be the coldest so far this season. If you have avoided a frost so far this autumn, chances are your luck will run out by dawn Friday. It looks like only areas right near Lake Champlain will escape the frost. 

Many places well inland will have a hard freeze with readings definitely its the 20s. 

After that, it will warm up to near normal temperatures Friday afternoon through the weekend. That means lows near 40, highs in the low to mid 60s.  After early tomorrow, I still don't see any signs of additional rain beyond sprinkles in Vermont at least until October 17 or so.  

UPDATE: Frost Advisory Upgraded To Freeze Warning In Much Of Vermont

A frost advisory that was in effect has been upgraded
to a freeze warning for much of Vermont away 
from the Champlain Valley. The valley continues
to be under a frost advisory. 

 The frost advisory that was in effect for the majority of Vermont has been upgraded to a freeze warning.

Expected lows early Thursday morning away from Lake Champlain will be a tad cooler than first thought, which means it'll get to or a bit below 32 degrees by dawn in much of the Green Mountain State.  

Such temperatures are not at all unusual for early October, but it's been so warm that a lot of people still have outdoor plants they want to protect.

So, it's back to digging out those old sheets to cover everything you want to save this evening. And hope for the best.

The big garden coverup should happen in the Champlain Valley as well. 

A frost advisory is still in effect there, which means temperatures should get perilously close to 32 degrees there. Remember, even if it's 34 or 35 degrees five feet off the ground where you'll read your thermometer, you can still get frost at your feet, where you lingering tomato and cucumber and flower plants are. 

There's still two places in Vermont without a freeze or frost alert. One of them is the Northeast Kingdom. The growing season is considered over up there. So there's no point in issuing a freeze warning there. 

Still, if you live up that way and were trying to hang on to outdoor plants, try covering them up. Better yet, bring 'em indoors if you can because most tender plants don't survive temperatures in the upper 20s.

The other spot escaping the frost advisory is Grand Isle County. It's surrounded by Lake Champlain, so the still warm waters of the lake should radiate a bit onto the county, keeping temperatures a bit above the level that you can get frost. 

It wasn't actually that cold this afternoon, so you'd think we'd escape an overnight frost. Temperatures were in the upper 50s to near 60 in most places. But that breeze we've had will diminish to calm. Skies will be clear all night. Daytime humidity was low. All those ingredients set us up for those temperatures to plummet overnight. 

Another thing to watch out for is locally dense fog early in the morning. Lord knows there's not much moisture in the ground to contribute to any fog. But the low rivers, ponds and lakes should be enough to create fog in the river valleys early tomorrow. 

You'll want to get a bit of an early start if you have to leave before, near or just after dawn tomorrow. You'll need to scrape the ice off your windshield, and you'll have to drive slowly through those dense fog patches. 

Tomorrow will be another nice, sunny, day, a little warmer than today. There's still a risk of scattered frost tomorrow night, but it won't be as widespread as what we'll get tonight. 

A big warm up is coming this weekend and early next week, so if your gardens survive tonight, they'll have a little October life in them yet. 

Scattered Vermont Frost This Morning; Even Colder Sunday Morning

Sensitive plants covered up on my St. Albans, Vermont
deck this morning as temperatures bottomed out
at 34 degrees. It should be just as cold or even a
little colder early Sunday morning, so
we'll keep those sheets handy. 

As expected, patchy frost and freezes greeted many of us Vermonters at dawn today. Low temperatures across the state were in the 30s pretty much everywhere. With the exception of some 40s right near Lake Champlain.  

That was definitely cold enough for a frost in many places. Even if it was 33 or 34 where you are,  there might well have been frost. 

Temperatures are usually measured about five feet off the ground. It often is a couple degrees colder when you get down at lawn level). 

Keep those sheets and covers handy for your outdoor plants. It's probably going to be even colder overnight tonight and early Sunday morning. 

Before we get to tonight's chill, today will be delightful.  Though with this horrible drought, I wouldn't have minded a rainy Saturday.  Instead, it'll be a crisp fall day, with bright blue skies, clean, dry air, and sunshine bringing temperatures up into the 60s. Perfect September weather, really. 

So, do you hike, do your apple picking, do your Emergency Frost Harvest in your garden (I picked something like 12 cucumbers yesterday)  and enjoy the day

You'll notice it getting colder quickly the minute the sun goes down. 

TONIGHT'S FROST/FREEZE

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says that basically, if you live five miles or more away from Lake Champlain,  expect a frost by Sunday morning. There might be couple exceptions to the rule, but they should be pretty few and far between. 

There's also a slight chance a faint southeast breeze might save the night in parts of the Champlain Valley, but don't count on it! I'd cover your outdoor plants if you want to save them. If it doesn't ultimately frost, then so what, right?

The frost advisories that were in effect for much of central and northern Vermont this morning are being expanded to cover all of Vermont tonight except the immediate shores of Lake Champlain. Grand Isle County is the only region in the state not covered by the frost advisory.

The morning, a freeze warning for actual temperatures below 32 degrees covered only Essex County in Vermont in the extreme Northeast Kingdom.  The Adirondacks and far northern New Hampshire were also under this morning's freeze warning. 

Overnight and Sunday morning, the freeze warning will cover much more real estate, covering roughly everything along and east of the Green Mountains and along and north of Route 2. 

Part of the reason why it will be so cold tonight is the drought. Moisture in the air would keep temperatures a couple degrees warmer. Some moisture would have come from wet soils and that sort of thing.  But since everything is so parched, there's little moisture, so it will get colder.

The other ingredients for tonight's added chill is temperatures this afternoon will be a little cooler than on Friday. So the starting point is lower when the temperatures start to drop this evening. The air is even drier than it was Friday, so that will allow readings to crash pretty hard. And the entire overnight will be clear and calm, with no winds or clouds to halt the drop in temperatures.  

COLD IN PERSPECTIVE

This degree of chill in a Vermont mid-September isn't the least bit odd.  It might seem that way given the balmy Septembers we've had in most recent years. Thanks, climate change. 

Temperatures Sunday morning will not come close to any record lows. Burlington's record low Sunday is 29, and the forecast minimum temperature tomorrow is in the mid-30s. The record low Sunday in Rutland, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury is 26 degrees.  Lows in those three communities early Sunday are expected to be around 30 degrees.  

The first freeze of the season in Rutland, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury is, on average between October 2 and 4 or so.  So if it's under 32 degrees Sunday morning, the first autumn freeze will be earlier than average this year.

But it won't be close to record early by any means. Freezes have happened as early as September 8 in Rutland, September 5 in Montpelier and September 13 in St. Johnsbury. Burlington's earliest freeze was on September 13, 1964.  It's not expected to get to 32 degrees there tonight. 

BIG WARMUP, DROUGHT STAYS

The September cold spell will end dramatically during the day Sunday. Temperatures will rocket upward into the low or even mid 70s by afternoon. That's a pretty incredible 12-hour rise in temperatures. 

The frost risk will disappear for about a week at least, as temperatures stay at or above normal through the upcoming week. 

There are some chances of showers coming up, but the expected rainfall looks pretty lame at this point. Enough rain could fall Tuesday to temporarily tamp down the forest fire danger for a couple or few days, but that's it. 

As of now, early guesses are we might get a quarter inch or so of rain. That won't be nearly enough to get ground water back in gear, or noticeably raise water levels in rivers and lakes. 

The overall weather pattern continues to feature a series of dry high pressure systems bursting into New England, with each one stopping to linger overhead for at least a couple days. I don't see any soaking rains going into early October. And probably beyond. 

The drought is probably already the worst I've seen in my 60+ years in Vermont. And it looks like it will probably get even worse before it gets better.  ,

Fire And Ice: Risk Of Wildfires Today, Frosts And Freezes Tonight, Tomorrow Night

Very low water along the Brewster River in 
Jeffersonville, Vermont this week. High pressure
today and tomorrow is raising the risk of frost,
continuing the drought and keeping
a high forest fire danger going. 

 As expected, a cold front blew through last night, and even as the sun was breaking through the clouds this morning, temperatures were still falling. 

The cold air lagged, and it was still unexpectedly kind of mild this morning. It was still 70 degrees in Burlington at midnight and near 60 at dawn. 

But, as we go through the day, temperatures will struggle to get into the 60s this afternoon. 

It actually rained in a few spots overnight, too, though the word "rain" is probably a bit strong here.  Sprinkles came down in Burlington. 

Here in St. Albans, we were a particular "wet" spot with a whopping 0.01 inches of rain. 

Those paltry amounts of course make no difference with our deep drought. As the day goes on, skies will clear, winds will stay breezy from the north, and humidity will crash to low levels once again.  

That's a recipe for increased fire danger. Since everything out there is parched, any spark could trigger a wildfire. "If any fires were to start, the weather and fuel conditions could cause fires to quickly get out of control and be difficult to contain," the National Weather Service announced in a special weather statement that's in effect today. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation has rated the fire danger as high for the past week or so. For today, they've upgraded the risk to very high. 

FROST/FREEZE

The cool breezes will calm down tonight. Skies will stay clear, and the low humidity will allow temperatures to drop. We're in for the most widespread frosts of the season so far. 

A freeze warning is in effect overnight and early Saturday morning for Essex County, Vermont, in the far corner of the Northeast Kingdom. The freeze warning is also up for the Adirondacks, far northern New Hampshire and northwest Maine. In those places, the temperature will fall to between 25 and 30 degrees, so that will definitively end the growing season in those places.

Here in Vermont, a frost advisory is up for everybody in the northern half of Vermont except the Champlain Valley.  Temperatures will fall to between 30 to 35 degrees in these areas by dawn Saturday.  You'll want to bring in vulnerable plants, or cover them up with sheets and such to protect them.  

Or, if you have a vegetable garden, today would be an excellent day for what I call your Emergency Frost Harvest, in which you can take in anything that is vulnerable. Grab those tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers while you can! 

There's no frost advisory in southern Vermont yet, but I expect quite a few patches of frost down there, too.  

Keep those sheets handy, because you'll need them Saturday night and early Sunday. Saturday will be a bright, cool, crisp, autumnal day. The fire danger will still be around, as humidity levels will be even lower than today. But Saturday's winds will be light, so that will minimize the spread of any wildfires. 

If anything, Saturday night and the hours around dawn Sunday might be even colder than tonight. There might even be some frost in the Champlain Valley well away from the lake.   It depends on whether any late night light breezes kick in or not. 

After Sunday morning, temperatures will turn warmer again, so the frost threat will go away for now. If your plants survive the frost this weekend, they'll last into October. The overall weather pattern will lean warm through then. 

Of course, your plants might not survive the ongoing drought. It's not really going to get any better.  

WEAK RAIN PROSPECTS

The good news is looks like it's finally going to rain next week. We think, anyway. The bad news is the amount of rain will be completely inadequate to help in any meaningful way with the drought.  

But, at least some rain is in the forecast. The predictions are iffy, but early guesses give us a tenth to a third of an inch of precipitation next Tuesday through Thursday. That's far short of what we need, but we'll take anything.  At least a lame rain would minimize the fire danger temporarily. 

We'll have more details on next week's rain chances as we get closer to the potential weather system. 

Vermont Frost/Freeze Prospects Increasing For Friday, Saturday Nights

There's a good chance at least some of us will see
a frost or freeze in Vermont early Saturday morning
and again early Sunday morning. Not everyone
will get that cold. So far, the Champlain
Valley looks safe, but we'll update as 
information becomes available. 

On top of the droughts, we now have to worry about frosts and freezes.

Though I suppose on the bright side, a risk of a frost is very normal for this time of year in Vermont. 

For once, it's not another weird weather thing being plopped down our plate. 

I'll skip the drought news in this particular post. I want to wait until the latest U.S. Drought Monitor comes out later this morning, so watch this space for a big drought update before noon today.

FROST CHANCES

So, OK, let's get into the frost prospects. 

I'll start with a spoiler: Not everyone will see their growing seasons end this weekend. But the frost will be more widespread than anything we've seen yet this early autumn season 

Judging by how things will feel out there today, you wouldn't think a frost risk. It'll feel like the Good Old Summertime with highs in many warmer valleys topping 80 degrees. During droughts, the lack of moisture can make daytime highs warmer than they would be had it been wetter. 

Which means there's a chance that today's high temperatures could over-perform. I wouldn't be shocked if some warmer valley reach the mid-80s.  That would be just a couple degrees short of record highs for this time of year. 

Not only do droughts make hot days hotter, they can make cold nights colder. Moisture coming up from the ground can blunt falling temperatures through higher humidity and fog, especially this time of year. A lack of moisture can allow temperatures to fall further than they otherwise might on calm, clear nights. 

That might be the case this weekend. 

The trigger for the upcoming chilly nights is a cold front due to come through tonight.  As we've kept saying, the most we can expect out of the front is some scattered sprinkles and patches of drizzle overnight and early Friday. 

Tomorrow itself will really feel like autumn has arrived. Highs will stay in the 60s as skies clear during the day.  A brisk north breeze will add to the autumnal feel of a classic crisp fall day. Saturday will be like that, too.

The problem is the nights. With the low humidity, temperatures will crash Friday night. A light breeze might keep temperatures pretty uniform, but those temperatures will be cold. Scattered frost is possible almost anywhere in Vermont away from the Champlain Valley, as it looks now. 

Even away from Lake Champlain, not everyone will see a frost. If you're in a place that gets frosts while other nearby places don't, you'll probably get a frost Saturday morning. And Sunday morning. If you usually don't get an autumn frost when everybody else does, chances are you'll be safe. 

The coldest hollows will see a hard freeze. Saranac Lake, New York is forecasting lows as chilly as 26 degrees.

Frost and freeze advisories haven't been issued yet. The National Weather Service will do that when we get closer to the event.  But get ready to protect your plants. 

After a crisp, beautiful cool, autumnal Saturday, we'll have a similar frost/freeze situation overnight Saturday and early Sunday. 

After that, it'll warm right back up again. Highs Sunday through maybe next Wednesday should get into the 70s again in many places. 

I'll have an update on this frost situation tomorrow morning. 

An Interesting, Surprisingly Stormy Vermont Weather Saturday Pushes Us Further Into Spring

Saturday's relatively humid weather and showers here
in St. Albans, Vermont has really pushed the 
daffodils to bloom enthusiastically. 

 Saturday's weather in Vermont proved more interesting than I - and many weather forecasters - thought it would be. 

Nothing bad happened, of course, which is always nice. Usually "interesting" weather spells trouble. 

But all Saturday's activity did is give some of us a needed wet down, and entertain weather geeks like me. And the rather humid air really pushed the spring season forward very nicely. 

The interesting aspect of Saturday was the persistent showers and a few thunderstorms, plus a temperature contrast that developed in New England. 

Showers and scattered thunderstorms were expected early in the day and that part of the forecast was accurate.

Those showers were expected to become widely scattered hit and miss things, with many of us getting nothing by afternoon.

But they persisted. Some areas still got relatively little rain, whiles other got unexpectedly drenched.

We had a preview of a summer danger:  Training storms. That's when one storm after another goes over the same spot. I always described them like a bunch of boxcars on a train traveling down the tracks. 

Training storms often lead to local, but sometimes severe flash floods. Nothing of the sort happened Saturday, but we did get a mini-preview of the phenomenon.  Training showers passed from the central Adirondacks into the middle Champlain Valley and on into central Vermont. 

Burlington, which had been expecting less than a quarter inch of rain Saturday, wound up with a decent 0.8 inches.  It's early in the season, so these training showers (with a little bit of embedded thunder)  weren't all that intense, so their effects were pretty benign.

Although humid air made it all the way through Vermont, the expected warmth didn't.  The showers kept the high temperature down to 66 in Burlington and 68 in Montpelier. Mild for the season, but nothing extraordinary. 

The mild, rather damp weather made spring advance tremendously. On Friday, a handful of scattered daffodils were blooming in my yard. By the end of the day Saturday, I was practically drowning in those happy yellow spring blooms. Not that I'm complaining!

Northern Vermont just barely missed out in the first truly summertime temperature of the season.  Down in Bennington and Springfield, Vermont, it got to 79 degrees. In southern New England it was as toasty as 89 degrees in Windsor Locks, Connecticut . 

Don't worry, we'll have our summer weather eventually. 

NEXT UP

A sharp but rather dry cold front blustered through last night, and its back to chilly weather today. It'll be pretty gusty, with north winds gusting to over 30 to 35 mph at times, so hang on to your Easter Bonnet! Strongest winds will be east of the Green Mountains. 

But the clouds you saw this morning will erode into blue skies, as temperatures stay cool.  That sets us up for probably the coldest night we'll see until next autumn.  Everybody gets a freeze tonight. If you put out early plants to harden them off for the season, bring 'em in. 

Although your perennials out there are popping up nicely, I'd say at least 95 percent of them should be fine despite tonight's chill.  Early perennials are pretty tough. The only disheartening piece of tonight's freeze is if your magnolia is blooming, you're probably going to wind up with brown, dead flowers from the tonight's freeze. 

By the way, the National Weather Service office in Burlington is not issuing frost and freeze alerts for tonight because the growing season hasn't really officially started yet. 

The upcoming week in Vermont is looking pretty tame and pleasant enough, at least in terms of weather. As far as the rest of the world's news, all bets are off, as we're already well aware.  

Temperatures in the Green Mountain State each day should be near normal or a little on the warm side, but nothing extreme. In the valleys, most days should top 60 degrees, and tonight's freeze should be the last one for at least a week. 

Especially for those who didn't get much rain yesterday, the news isn't great because I'm not expecting much rain at all over the next seven days. Some light rain looks like it will come through tomorrow night, but that'll only amount to a quarter inch of precipitation at most. 

There might be some scattered showers Tuesday.  After that, the next chance of rain comes Friday or Saturday. So far, that end of week wet weather does not look all that impressive.