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| A cold overcast over St. Albans, Vermont Thursday. The weather pattern over the next several days will feature frequent bouts of rain and snow. |
For much of the rest of the eastern United States, this cold snap might end up being one for the record books.
The blast of chilly air from Canada looks like it will be much stronger and widespread than is usual for November.
By Tuesday morning, places as far south as Florida could see morning frosts. In central Florida, the forecast low Tuesday in Orlando is 40 degrees. The normal low there this time of year is around 60.
Further north around Jacksonville, Florida, they're expecting near record highs in the mid-80s this weekend, followed by near record lows in the mid-30s by Tuesday.
Across the interior Southeast, they're bracing for hard freezes early next week.
Further north, snow will be widespread starting Sunday and heading into early next week. There should be flakes in the air from Minnesota to Maine, and south to the Ohio River Valley and central Appalachians.
Most places won't get much snow. Just a pre-winter tease. But an exception will be areas near the Great Lakes. The lake effect snow machine might get off to an early start with this cold wave. There's potential for several inches of snow well south of Buffalo, New York, and south of Watertown, New York.
Another area that could get a fair amount of snow are the upper elevations of northern New England and the Laurentian Mountains in Quebec. Some mountain peaks could get six or more inches on top of the snow then already have.
More on that in the Vermont section below.
Widespread cold waves like this are getting a bit more rare, thanks to climate change. Record highs are still far outpacing record lows.
But, given the correct alignment of the jet stream, you can get widespread cold weather. You need a big southward dip in the jet stream, deeper than most cold spells. That's what's setting up for the next few days in the eastern United States.
I don't know how many cities will experience record lows with this Arctic outbreak. The last time I saw a big blast of record cold air hitting the nation was an unprecedented snowstorm and cold snap along the Gulf Coast last January 21-22.
The cold wave coming in within the next few days won't be as bonkers as that spell in January, but since people aren't accustomed to the cold, it will be super noticeable.
VERMONT EFFECTS
Like many recent record winter cold snaps (Like the Texas freeze in 2021 and the already mentioned Gulf Coast snow and cold last winter), the core of the coldest air relative to normal should sweep mostly to our west and south.
We'll briefly get into the coldest air Tuesday, but for the most part, we just have an extended spell of somewhat colder than normal, unsettled but not extreme weather to deal with here in the Green Mountain State.
We have a series of middling storms coming through, including a complicated mess Sunday into Tuesday.
A quick hitting cold front is coming through today. We'll have some strong south winds in the Champlain Valley. Rain will come in this afternoon. It'll be pretty light, with just a few hundredth of an inch in some valleys with maybe a quarter inch in the north and mountains.
Some mountain summits will get some snow.
We'll get a break between storms tomorrow, with just sort of cloudy to partly sunny weather and temperatures up near 50 degrees - not bad for this time of year.
Another storm will come in Sunday. In northern Vermont, precipitation might start as snow before switching to rain.
Things get complicated Monday, as maybe a second storm could move northward along the New England coast. At this point, things should stay mostly rain in Vermont on Monday.
The coldest air will come in Tuesday, and we should have some snow showers across Vermont, even in the valleys. It's still unclear how much snow will fall, but it's beginning to look like most areas will get at least a little.
I imagine Burlington will get its first trace of snow of the season either Sunday or Tuesday.
The first trace of snow of the season will be late in Burlington. The average first snowflake is on October 15.
If Burlington gets an inch of snow on Tuesday, that would actually be a bit early. The average date of the first inch of snow is November 17. The earliest one inch snow on record was on October 9, 1979.
The snow will keep piling up in the mountains over the next few days. There's already 13 inches of snow atop Mount Mansfield, and they'll have at least six more inches by Tuesday night.
Killington Ski Resort is contemplating opening for the season during the middle of next week.
After Tuesday, temperatures will moderate some, but still stay below normal.
We'll get into an unfortunate, long lasting weather pattern that should feature a near-constant northwest flow of air. That will keep temperatures near to below normal for at least most of next week, if not beyond.
Such a weather pattern also means the frequent weather disturbances that come through won't have much moisture to deal with. That could spell below normal precipitation, especially in southern Vermont.
We're still in a drought, so we need the wet storms. Aside from a possible decent rainfall Sunday and Monday, it looks like we're kinda out of luck.
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