Winter, By One Measure Anyway, Starts Tomorrow In Vermont

National Weather Service snow accumulation map
through Monday evening. Expect some changes to
this map. I expect accumulations in the Green
Mountains will be more than what's 
depicted here, but we shall see!

I hope you got up at the crack of dawn this Saturday morning in Vermont to enjoy those mild temperatures that reached the low 50s.  

It's going to be quite awhile before it's that warm again. Winter starts this weekend. 

The forecast has changed quite a bit since yesterday. We're going to see falling temperatures today, a thump of snow, especially north, tomorrow morning, then a cold rain, maybe mixed with sleet in the chillier spots Sunday, followed by more snow showers Monday and Tuesday. 

For the first time this season, even the valleys, places like Burlington, Montpelier, maybe even downtown Rutland, will see at least some snowflakes.

This won't be a big snowstorm at all. At least Ma Nature is having the courtesy of introducing us to the snow gradually, and not hitting us immediately with a blizzard. 

Welcome to winter in Vermont. 

In terms of what falls from the sky and when, expect surprises. Temperatures are going to be really marginal for either rain or snow or even ice through Monday. The timing of changeovers from snow to rain back to snow are in question, as are how much snow will accumulate. Also, sleet and freezing rain might get thrown in at a few places just to make things interesting. 

The details I'm about to outline will probably shift. But the following will give you a general outline of what to expect.

Spoiler: Make sure you have a snow brush for your car and your winter coats ready. 

TODAY: 

We've entered the season in which morning cold fronts can allow for temperatures to fall all day. In the summer, the sun is strong enough to counteract chillier air coming in from the north. If a cold front in July comes through at 7 in the morning, don't expect a cool down until the following night. 

This time of year, the sun angle is low, so it doesn't help much in the face of chilly air brought in by gusty north winds. Today, the sun should be out at least part of the time  but it will be no match for these blustery northwest winds. By sunset late this afternoon, temperatures will be down near 40.

Those temperatures will continue down into the 20s overnight, setting us up for a wintry start to Sunday. 

SUNDAY

The next storm coming along will push moisture up from the south into the cold air over us, so expect the day to start with some snow and/or sleet, especially central and north. 

There's still some questions as to how much snow and sleet we'll get, which means so far, there are no winter weather advisories or anything like that. The accumulation will be light and slushy, probably under an inch for most of us. But I've seem surprises in the past, so stay tuned. 

The rest of the day will feature a cold rain.  It could continue to be mixed with sleet Sunday and Sunday night in the Northeast Kingdom. If you're headed toward New York, sleet or freezing rain could also be a problem in spots through Sunday night. 

MONDAY

As a cold front passes through Sunday night and early Monday, another storm will move north along the New England coast. It won't be any kind of blockbuster, but it will keep precipitation going here in Vermont probably through Monday at least. 

But what kind of precipitation?

It'll depend on the force and timing of cold air coming in from the northwest. Right now, forecasters are going with rain and snow showers.  I think it will be pretty much just snow showers in mid and high elevations. Places like the Champlain Valley and Connecticut River Valley might be more marginal.

There might be trouble with road conditions for both the Monday morning and afternoon commute in some parts of Vermont, especially the higher elevations, so stay tuned. 

At least by Monday, it doesn't look like rain or snow will come down particularly heavy, except maybe way up in the Green Mountains. Ground temperatures are warm, too. Light snow won't stick as readily as if it were coming down heavily.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY

Expected rainfall, including melted snow today through
early Tuesday morning. Generally a half to three 
quarters of an inch could put another slight
dent in our lingering drought. 

Snow showers will continue Monday night and through the day Tuesday in most of Vermont. Southeastern areas might escape it. 

It'll get below freezing Monday night, even in the valleys. Most areas that see snow Tuesday will only get a dusting to an inch at most. 

But just a little bit of snow could ice up the roads very easily Monday night. Remember, this is the first bout of winter weather of the season. A surprising number of people don't remember how to drive in the snow and ice.

Or they just don't care if they crash into you to ruin your day or even your life. So beware. 

Tuesday will be the coldest day of this wintry period, with some places staying near or even below freezing all day Tuesday. 

It'll turn a little "warmer" for the rest of the week, but we will be at constant risk of light rain and snow showers until at least next weekend, and possibly beyond.  

TOTALS

Snow accumulations will be pretty light during this period, except along the western slopes and summits of the Green Mountains. I wouldn't be surprised if the places like the Jay Peak summit or maybe even Mount Mansfield get a foot of snow between Sunday morning and Tuesday night. 

Rain and melted snow Sunday through Monday night in Vermont look like they'll total between a half and three quarters of an inch. That's nothing extreme, but at least it could put another minor dent into our lingering drought. 

The weather will be miserable over the next few days, but at least we're trying to see some drought relief.