First Warmer Than Averages Temperatures In 2 Weeks Coming To Vermont, But Don't Bring Out The Swimsuits

Typically blah November this morning in St. Albans,
Vermont with still some snow on the ground. 
After a long cool stretch, we might have a couple
of warmer than normal days coming up. 

 Today has a shot at being the first nominally warmer than average day in Vermont - at least as measured in Burlington -since November 8. 

I haven't been able to check how long it's been since we've had that long a stretch of below normal readings. But this stretch comes with caveats. 

You've heard me say this a million times already but I still have to point out this the "new normal," which is based on the average temperatures between 1990 and 2020.  

By those decades, climate change had already taken hold, so "normal" temperatures these days are above what we would have expected through most of the 20th century. 

Had this November occurred in say, 1980, some days in the stretch from November 8 to today would have been slightly warmer than average. 

Even though we're basing comparisons on the "new normal" this month has provided us with the first sustained chillier than average spell in a long time. This will probably be the coolest month relative to average since at least November, 2023, but more likely since January, 2022.  

Only four of the last 24 months have been cooler than our climate changed new warmer average.  

So, a November that was only a little cooler than the historical average seemed frigid to us climate change warriors. 

OUTLOOK

Now, we get to enjoy three or so sort of warmer than average days coming up before it turns chillier again. 

Of course, warmer than average isn't all that toasty for late November. 

Today might or might not get above average for the date. It depends on how fast this morning's thick overcast and patchy fog lifts into partly sunny skies. If it clears up by late morning or noon, we could get up to 40 or a little more. If it stays cloudy, we're probably stuck in the 30s. 

Tomorrow, we'll get into some south winds ahead of the next storm. That storm won't cause a lot of havoc for us, but will bring quite a squirt of warm air toward us.  Many of us will get into the mid-40s tomorrow, and into the low and mid 50s Wednesday. 

We'll have to watch Wednesday, as there could be some surprises with the temperature. If things work out just right, we could have readings near 60 degrees.

The storm will bring two waves of rain through Vermont. One Tuesday night, one late Wednesday night and early on the day on Thanksgiving. The rain won't be especially heavy, but it will reach even the mountain summits. 

A cold front will come through early on Thanksgiving Day and we'll get into some blustery weather.  Thanksgiving itself won't be too cold amid the scattered rain and mountain snow showers. The weather shouldn't get in the way for you to get  over the river and through the woods to grandmother's house. Or wherever the hell you're going. 

Any rain showers in the valleys will flip to snow Thursday evening.  There won't be much accumulation, except in the mountains. But still, there might be some not so great road conditions here and there Thanksgiving night. So if you're blasting your F-250 through the mountain roads Thursday night, just remember you're not invincible. 

Is getting up way before dawn on Black Friday to wait in cold, windy parking lots to barge into stores for blockbuster deals still a thing?  If it is, bundle up if you're into that sort of adventure. It'll indeed be cold and windy with snowflakes blasting through the air. 

The not-terribly extreme cold snap will be brief, lasting through Saturday night.Then it looks like it will briefly warm up Sunday and Monday as another modest storm comes through. 

After that, chances are we'll get into an extended cold spell again in December. Not sure on that yet, as long range forecasts are sometimes a little shady. But for the first time in years, we might have two consecutive truly cooler than average months in years. 

Even so, climate change rages on. Going forward, most months will be warmer than that your parents used to experience.