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| Satellite view this afternoon that is menacing California with the threat of heavy rains and floods Southern California in particular will see very heavy rain for so early in its wet season Debris flows near the sites of recent wildfires are the biggest threat. |
Storms coming off the Pacific Ocean this week are giving California an early start to their annual winter wet season.
The storms over the next few days are raising fears of urban flooding, mudslides and debris flows. Especially near the sites of large wildfires in recent years.
The fun started today. Flood advisories were up in San Francisco along with coastal and slightly inland areas north to Fort Bragg and south all the way down to Santa Cruz.
The heaviest rain was moving out of coastal northern California late this afternoon, so some, but mot all of those advisories have been lifted.
However, inland, near Sacramento and the rest of the Central Valley, flood advisories were still in effect late this afternoon.
The heavy rain was moving inland to the Sierra Nevada foothills, where flood watches are in effect.
Areas of northern California might see two to as much as six inches of rain through tonight. Higher up in the Sierra Nevada mountains, it's obviously colder, so winter storm warnings are up for parts of the Sierra. Some areas could get as much as a foot of snow.
That's not huge by Sierra Nevada standards, but it's pretty good for this early in the season.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
The real show starts later tonight and tomorrow and continues all week in southern California.
A huge ridge of high pressure is parked over the middle of the U.S. That will make a storm the storm that is trying to move eastward to affects southern California to do so only at a snail's pace. That means sunny L.A. and the rest of southern California are going to feel more like Seattle.
Which isn't a good thing especially for the fire-scared hillsides of California.
Los Angeles County has issued evacuation warnings for thousands of people who live near areas burned in recent wildfires. That includes last January's massive Palisades and Eaton fires. The warning is in effect from this evening through late morning Sunday.
An evacuation warning means people should be ready to evacuate at a drop of a hat. They should spend today gathering documents, medications, important records, and supplies for a possible mandatory evacuation, and have arrangements made for children and pets.
People who move slowly, like the elderly and disabled, should consider getting out of Dodge today before the rain really starts to fall.
This all proves that a wildfire disaster isn't over after the last flames are extinguished. There's the risk of further damage - maybe extensive - months or years after the fire. I'll hate to see people whose homes survived the fire only to be wrecked by flash flooding and debris flows. We'll see how that goes.
The National Weather Service this afternoon hoisted flood watches for all of southern California except for the extreme southeast corner. Most of the watches go into effect late Friday night and continue through Saturday night.
Some forecasts predict the storms could dump up to seven inches of rain on the mountains north and east of L.A. For lower elevations, two to four inches of rain could fall, but those forecasts could change pretty radically up or down over the next day or two.
Most of the rain would come in two bursts, one tonight and part of tomorrow, the other focused on Saturday.
At least the early onset of rainfall in southern California is tamping down the risk of more huge early winter firestorms like the region had last year. A very early season southern California rainstorm in mid-October helped.
October ended with 0.8 inches of rain in L.A., which is above the normal of a half inch.
Normal rainfall in Los Angeles in November is about 0.8 inches. It hasn't rained there yet this month, but this storm could really get the rainy season off to a good start. Total rainfall tonight through Sunday could reach two to as much as four inches in the Lost Angeles Basin.
The bulk of southern California's rain comes in December through the first part of March. It's obviously too early to know whether this rainy pattern will continue through the winter.
If not, and December and January turn dry, the risk of wildfires could return. In Southern California, it always seems likes it's either too little or too much rain.
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