Cold, Cloudy, Often Snowy Vermont November Revealing Some Quirks

Traffic cam image from yesterday afternoon shows
a lot of snow falling along Route 105 in Jay, Vermont.

If you think it's been a cold November in Vermont so far,  you're absolutely right. 

Through yesterday, the month is running 2.9 degrees cooler than normal, as measured in Burlington. 

Remember, that's the "new normal," based on the average of Novembers from 1990 to 2020. By then, climate change had really started taking hold. 

Average Novembers used to be colder than they are now. This month isn't coming anywhere near close to becoming among the chilliest on record. But we're surely noticing how wintry this month has been so far. 

Still, this chill is a departure from most recent Novembers, though 2019 was notably cold. On November 13 of that year, the temperature in Burlington fell to 9 degrees above zero, the coldest for so early in the season.

What's been notable this month so far are the comparatively warm nights. The coldest it's gotten in Burlington so far this month is 27 degrees. It usually gets at least that cold by Halloween. A spoiler, though: The forecast low in Burlington tonight is 24 degrees.

That's still not especially chilly for this time of year. 

SNOWY MOUNTAINS

It really, really snowed in the central and northern Green Mountains yesterday. I could tell something was happening up there from my perch here in St. Albans. It snowed all day here. Not hard, and it often mixed with rain, so our accumulation was just 0.2 inches. 

But just go a little higher in elevation than where I am at 650 or so feet, and things really started to pop with the snow. 

The snow depth atop Mount Mansfield by late yesterday afternoon was 22 inches. Since records started up there in 1954, only 1976 and 1990 had deeper snow at this date. 

I don't yet have any specific reports of snow accumulation from just yesterday, but I'm dying to find out how much Jay Peak got.

The early deep snow in the mountains doesn't necessarily mean we'll have a snowy winter. 

The winter of 1976-77 was a little snowier than average in Vermont, but had less snow than all the other winters in the particularly snowy 1970s winters.

The winter of 1990-91 in Burlington had just 42.5 inches of snow, far below the normal of 78 inches. 

FORECAST

The moist, cold northwest flow has dried up a little since yesterday, though we will see some scattered snow showers today. Again. Now that the snow has started, it doesn't seem to want to end. At least not everywhere. 

Most of whatever snow we get today will be in the mountains. 

However, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has flagged one interesting potential today. There might be a band of lake effect snow setting up off of Lake Champlain. It it happens, you might see it snowing it places like Charlotte, Ferrisburgh, Monkton and Hinesburg, that area. The snow band might jump all the way over the mountains to places around Rochester and Granville. 

Those places might get an inch of snow, maybe a tad more. 

When the Lake Champlain temperature is as warm as it is now, lake effect snows can drop a few inches of snow in the central and southern Champlain Valley. 

As mentioned, tonight could be the coldest night of the year so far, but that's not saying much. The reason: Skies might finally briefly, partially clear.  Clearer skies can mean colder nighttime temperatures. 

NWS South Burlington also says patchy freezing fog could develop toward morning. That'll leave a pretty frost on the trees, but can also create icy spots on roads. Especially on bridges and overpasses. Take care tomorrow morning if you're driving anywhere. 

Saturday 

Speaking of ice, we're still watching a storm due this weekend that threatens us with a nasty mix of snow, ice and rain. 

The timing of this storm has moved up a little, so now it will start to affect us tomorrow afternoon. It'll be cold enough so that it'll start as a nasty mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. 

It still looks like it'll be warm enough in the Champlain Valley so that most of this will probably be a cold rain. But along and east of the Green Mountains, freezing rain looks like it will hang tough. It won't be enough to wreck the trees, but certainly enough to make the roads very, very iffy. 

Keep that in mind if you're driving anywhere Saturday night, especially outside the Champlain Valley. 

There's still some questions about how this storm will sugar out. It'll probably move eastward near the Canadian border Saturday night, while a new storm gets going on the Maine coast. 

The interaction and exact paths of these storms will determine how much rain, mix and snow we get. 

The storm might be another installment, albeit a small one for continued drought relief. Right now, the forecast calls for roughly a half inch of rain, and melted snow and melted ice. 

Sunday and Beyond

The storminess will start to pass by us on Sunday and strengthen as it moves slowly into the Canadian Maritimes. 

That means another spell of cold northwest winds, lots of clouds, and snow showers. Those snow showers will once again mostly hit the central and northern Green Mountains. There could be a few more inches up there. 

Monday will be particularly windy and cold, but the chilly air will stand strong most of the week. It does look like it might finally warm up a bit toward the end of next week. 

The overall weather pattern looks active, with frequent chances of precipitation probably through to the end of the month.