Not A White Thanksgiving In Vermont, Which Is Fine, But December Could Be Snowy (Results May Vary)

Latest snow forecast for the next couple of days. National
Weather Service has backed off a little on how much
snow wil fall in the Green Mountains. That heavier
snow you see in New York is lake effect 

The other day I brought up that silly children's song about going over the river and through the woods to grandmothers house. 

The premise of the song is that everyone was going to have a Thanksgiving feast at grandmother's house - who once again was stuck with all the work of cooking, hosting, cleaning etc. 

Some of the lyrics in that song go, "The horse knows the way to carry the sleigh/through the white and drifted snow."

Which begs the question, what snow?

We all know it can snow around Thanksgiving, but is this holiday that snowy?  

The ever-helpful National Weather Service in South Burlington has the answer, which is: Not really.

They looked back over the past 70 Thanksgivings and found that at least in Burlington, in 44 out of those 70 Thanksgivings, there was no snow on the ground and none fell from the sky. Five Thanksgivings started the day with no snow, but at least a little fell from the sky that day. Eighteen Thanksgivings had one to three inches on the ground and only three had a snow depth of more than three inches.

So most of the time, that sleigh would have been worthless on Thanksgiving, at least around Burlington. Other parts of Vermont, of course, might have more snow on this holiday. 

Plus, I'm being geographically narcissistic. Putting on my Captain Obvious hat, the setting for "Over The Hill And Through The Woods" could be anywhere it snows, not just here in Vermont.

There are places in the U.S. that could use a sleigh today. There's still plenty of snow on the ground in much of Minnesota, thanks to a storm a couple days ago. Blizzard conditions swept the Upper Peninsula of Michigan yesterday.  Lake affects snows are burying some shoreline communities around the Great Lakes today.

VERMONT FORECAST

At least in Burlington, this is going to be another one of those Thanksgivings with no snow.  It'll be partly sunny, and blustery, and there might be a few cold, light rain showers blowing by. 

Tonight, it will be cold enough for snow showers, so we have a shot at being the sixth Thanksgiving with no snow, but maybe some in the air. We'll see.

The snow showers will hit the northern and central Green Mountains tonight and tomorrow. Forecasters have backed off a little on accumulations. Still, the ski areas could pick up a few inches of snow, which is nice. Valleys should get just a dusting to an inch or two. 

We're still looking at another modest storm on Sunday which will probably send a little more rain through Vermont, with maybe some snow way up high.  

The weather pattern is still leaning somewhat toward cold, and stormy in December, at least according to NOAA. Although long range forecasts are notoriously sketchy, which means I can't promise anything. 

So no promises yet on whether we'll see a white Christmas or not.  

Vermont Thanksgiving Weather Looking Pretty Safe. Elsewhere, And In Past Years, Not So Much

It'll be a blustery, but otherwise pretty tame Thanksgiving
in Vermont.  But between Thursday night and Saturday
morning, most of us will see at least a little snow. 
Northern Vermont ski areas could get a good half
a foot of snow. 

It's steady as she goes with the forecast for today's pre-Thanksgiving travel, and the big day tomorrow. The forecast hasn't changed much since yesterday. 

Vermont is solidly in the warm air ahead of a cold front today.  After a showery, rather balmy overnight., it's more of the same today. 

It could rain at any time today, but it'll be off and on.  We'll have intervals of dry-ish weather in between the raindrops. Highs will be up in the 50s, which will be the warmest day in quite awhile. 

Behind the cold front on Thanksgiving, it still looks like it will be blustery. A slot of dry air behind the front will give us some sunshine and fairly mild temperatures through roughly midday, as it looks now.

As the afternoon wears on, clouds should fill in and we'll start getting into some valley rain and mountain snow showers. 

The tricky part of the Thanksgiving travel weekend starts tomorrow night. Snow showers will take over. It'll be a combination of the tail end of lake effects snow off Lake Ontario, some weak weather disturbances in the strong, cold west and northwest winds, and those winds going up and over the Green Mountains to trigger more snow showers. 

Almost all of us except some people in the lower Connecticut River Valley will get at least a little snow.  In most places, snowfall between Thanksgiving night and Saturday morning will come out to a dusting to three inches. 

The three inches will be mostly in northern Vermont. 

Some of the ski areas in central and northern Vermont could get four to as much as eight inches of snow out of this. That'll replace some of the snow that will have melted today. 

The weather will be decidedly less tame over in New York State, near the lakes. Lake effect snows blasting off the lakes could dump 10 to 20 inches of snow in the general area near Watertown and south of Buffalo. 

Winds will be more fierce that in Vermont out that way. Over here in the Green Mountain States, the highest wind gusts will probably top out at around 35 mph. Near the Great Lakes, they could reach as high as 55 mph. 

Lake Erie is also expected to experience something called a seiche. That's when west winds are so strong that it tilts the lake. Water levels will go down on the west end of the lake near ?   but increase near Buffalo, where a lake flood advisory is in effect. 

Later in the weekend, toward Sunday, another storm is scheduled to arrive. There's still some questions as to whether it will be mostly rain, mostly snow or some schmutzy combination. 

WILD WEATHER THANKSGIVINGS

The weather is going pretty easy on us here in Vermont this Thanksgiving, but we've seen some tremendous extremes in past Thanksgiving weekends.

Some examples: 

Frigid Thanksgiving 1938

Thanksgiving fell on November 24 that year. That was the start of some of the most wintry weather on record for November. A storm that dropped a few inches of snow was departing on Thanksgiving. Within two days, it was 3 below in Burlington, which is still the coldest temperature on record for November. 

It was even colder elsewhere. Rutland got down to 10 below. St. Johnsbury was 13 below. 

Snowy Thanksgiving, 1943

Snow was deep on November 25, 1943 across much of Vermont, as a storm on November 22-23 left an impressive layer of winter. Burlington had 11 inches of snow, which is pretty good, but nothing compared to the Northeast Kingdom. 

As the Vermont Weather Book tells us, Bloomfield had 31.5 inches, Newport 29.5 inches, and Northfield, 22.4 inches. 

Great Storm of 1950

The most dramatic Thanksgiving weekend weather in Vermont came in 1950. 

Thanksgiving, 1950 (November 23) was quiet and cold, but Vermont, and the entire eastern third of the U.S. was gearing up for one of the most ferocious and widespread storms on record.

The Great Storm of 1950 killed 353 people in 22 states as the storm created an extreme blizzard in Ohio, West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, and record-setting winds in the Northeast. The storm caused $66.7 million in damage, which is right around $900 million in 2025 dollars. 

The storm deposited the storm 57 inches of snow in West Virginia and 44 inches in Ohio. 

Here in Vermont and New England, it was the wind. Gusts reached 72 mph in Burlington. The wind was especially destructive in Addison County.  At the time, the Addison Independent said 70 percent of houses between Pittsford and Vergennes had at least some roof damage, with some houses losing almost their entire roofds.

Damage to Addison County farms amounted to $840,000, which is $11.6 million in 2025 dollars, Damage to Middlebury College amounted to $150,000, which is $2 million in today's dollars.

Thanksgiving Snowstorm, 1971

The snowiest actual Thanksgiving Day came on November 25 that year. Twenty inches of snow fell on Mount Mansfield, Waitsfield and Montpelier. Burlington managed 8.6 inches. 

Record Cold Thanksgiving, 2018

Thanksgiving, 2018 was the coldest on record. Burlimgton only got up to 14 degrees that day, November 21. Montpelier only got up to 9 above. 

The next morning, it was minus 1 in Burlington, the earliest subzero temperature on record. That's particularly impressive since climate change was taking hold by then. It's much harder to achieve record lows than it once was.

I hope your Thanksgiving is memorable. And be thankful the holiday this year won't be memorable because of the weather. 

 

Warm Air Already Over-Performing In Some Spots In Vermont Enjoy, Won't Last Long

This month's snow caught us off guard before we put
deck furniture away. The warm ground allowed the 
snow to mostly melt (see background) but no warmth
beneath the deck allowed the snow to stay. We're hoping
warm weather today and tomorrow will melt the
deck snow so we can properly
store all the summer stuff. 

Sorry for the late start with the weather today, as I am a little under the weather. No worries though, just a bit of a high pressure system in my sinuses. I should be better in no time. 

So, it's warm out there for a change.  At least compared to what we've had to deal with. In some areas, it's even warmer than we thought it would be, which is a nice switch. 

The forecast high in Burlington today was 47 degrees. That would make today the hottest day since November 8. But the forecast is off a bit. That's because it was already 48 degrees as of 10 a.m. 

The milder air is really funneling up the Champlain Valley, which explains the toasty air there. In the rest of Vermont, it looks like temperatures will end up in the 40s this afternoon, close to the forecast highs. 

It's nice to see the last of the snow finally leaving my yard up in St. Albans after being there since November 10. 

Tonight will be balmy, too, at least by late November standards. I wouldn't exactly rush to put the air conditioners back on the windows. But still, a low of 40 degrees isn't bad for the time of year.  

The first wave of rain will come through tonight. Sorry, early season skiers!  It'll only amount to a quarter inch or so, give or take, so nothing to worry about. 

Tomorrow will bring us the peak of the "heat wave" as readings will get up into the 50s in many places. A 60 degree reading in one of the warmest towns isn't out of the question, but don't hold your breath. 

Although a shower might come at any time Wednesday, we'll probably have a lull during the day. 

The warm air can't last forever, especially with the late autumn/early winter weather pattern we find ourselves in this year. 

The cold front will come through before dawn Thanksgiving, throwing another band of rain showers at us, then shutting off the warm air. Although the colder air will come in aloft quickly, it'll take time to make it down to where we live.

So Thanksgiving itself will be OK, with clouds, a little sun, some blustery winds and highs near 40 or so. 

The cold air will really come in Thanksgiving night and Friday. Lake effect snows off Lake Ontario will crank up big time.  So big that some of that snow should hit the central and northern Green Mountains for a time.  Even the valleys will get a little snow.  The ski areas, though should get a bit of recovery snow - maybe three to six inches. 

During Friday, the lake effect snows will shift southward, so the southern Green Mountains might pick up a little snow, too.

Saturday looks cold, too, but the snow showers should be drying up by then. 

The overall weather pattern heading well into December looks active and mostly cold. The next shot at snow and rain will come Sunday and Monday.  That storm might go a little to our west, which is why I'm thinking mixed precipitation on that one. 

We'll have more info once we get closer to that event, which I know you've seen me say a zillion times already. But it's true that forecasts more than a few days out can get a little questionable.  

First Warmer Than Averages Temperatures In 2 Weeks Coming To Vermont, But Don't Bring Out The Swimsuits

Typically blah November this morning in St. Albans,
Vermont with still some snow on the ground. 
After a long cool stretch, we might have a couple
of warmer than normal days coming up. 

 Today has a shot at being the first nominally warmer than average day in Vermont - at least as measured in Burlington -since November 8. 

I haven't been able to check how long it's been since we've had that long a stretch of below normal readings. But this stretch comes with caveats. 

You've heard me say this a million times already but I still have to point out this the "new normal," which is based on the average temperatures between 1990 and 2020.  

By those decades, climate change had already taken hold, so "normal" temperatures these days are above what we would have expected through most of the 20th century. 

Had this November occurred in say, 1980, some days in the stretch from November 8 to today would have been slightly warmer than average. 

Even though we're basing comparisons on the "new normal" this month has provided us with the first sustained chillier than average spell in a long time. This will probably be the coolest month relative to average since at least November, 2023, but more likely since January, 2022.  

Only four of the last 24 months have been cooler than our climate changed new warmer average.  

So, a November that was only a little cooler than the historical average seemed frigid to us climate change warriors. 

OUTLOOK

Now, we get to enjoy three or so sort of warmer than average days coming up before it turns chillier again. 

Of course, warmer than average isn't all that toasty for late November. 

Today might or might not get above average for the date. It depends on how fast this morning's thick overcast and patchy fog lifts into partly sunny skies. If it clears up by late morning or noon, we could get up to 40 or a little more. If it stays cloudy, we're probably stuck in the 30s. 

Tomorrow, we'll get into some south winds ahead of the next storm. That storm won't cause a lot of havoc for us, but will bring quite a squirt of warm air toward us.  Many of us will get into the mid-40s tomorrow, and into the low and mid 50s Wednesday. 

We'll have to watch Wednesday, as there could be some surprises with the temperature. If things work out just right, we could have readings near 60 degrees.

The storm will bring two waves of rain through Vermont. One Tuesday night, one late Wednesday night and early on the day on Thanksgiving. The rain won't be especially heavy, but it will reach even the mountain summits. 

A cold front will come through early on Thanksgiving Day and we'll get into some blustery weather.  Thanksgiving itself won't be too cold amid the scattered rain and mountain snow showers. The weather shouldn't get in the way for you to get  over the river and through the woods to grandmother's house. Or wherever the hell you're going. 

Any rain showers in the valleys will flip to snow Thursday evening.  There won't be much accumulation, except in the mountains. But still, there might be some not so great road conditions here and there Thanksgiving night. So if you're blasting your F-250 through the mountain roads Thursday night, just remember you're not invincible. 

Is getting up way before dawn on Black Friday to wait in cold, windy parking lots to barge into stores for blockbuster deals still a thing?  If it is, bundle up if you're into that sort of adventure. It'll indeed be cold and windy with snowflakes blasting through the air. 

The not-terribly extreme cold snap will be brief, lasting through Saturday night.Then it looks like it will briefly warm up Sunday and Monday as another modest storm comes through. 

After that, chances are we'll get into an extended cold spell again in December. Not sure on that yet, as long range forecasts are sometimes a little shady. But for the first time in years, we might have two consecutive truly cooler than average months in years. 

Even so, climate change rages on. Going forward, most months will be warmer than that your parents used to experience. 

A Little Snow Today In Vermont, Then A Short Mild Interval Until Thanksgiving

Some puffy clouds behind the trees on a Saturday that
gave us a chance to see some rare November Vermont sun

 The sun came out Saturday afternoon which was a nice diversion from the usual Vermont cloudy skies. 

The overcast has returned and as of 8:30 this morning, some light snow was getting ready to move in. 

Relax, though, this won't be a biggy. Light, occasional snow will come down today and tonight, and some of that snow will probably mix with a few cold rain drops. 

Accumulations will end up being a dusting for most of us, maybe an inch in a few places. Some of the ski areas could grab two, three, maybe even four inches. 

After that, we're in for a "warm" spell, but that's relative. Temperatures will be close to normal, with a spike to above normal readings on Wednesday. That's a change from most of this month. Saturday was the 14th day in a row in which it was cooler than average in Burlington. 

By "warmer" I only mean highs with a few degrees of 40 on Monday and Tuesday.  Nights will be mild, too. They'll stay in the mid and upper 20s for most of us, and in the low to mid 30s in the Champlain Valley. I know that seems chilly, but we're knocking on the door of December. You can't expect much. 

Snow is moving back in today but it will be light.
However, a few inches might pile up in the 
mountains by tomorrow morning. 

A modest storm will affect us Tuesday night and Wednesday, but it won't affect your plans for Thanksgiving travel much. 

Mostly because it will almost all come down as rain. That's a bummer for the ski areas, but the roads won't be glare ice, anyway. 

We won't get all that much rain, either, maybe a quarter to a third of an inch. There's still room for forecast adjustments, so it might end up being slightly different than that, but you get the picture. 

Thanksgiving itself will probably be blustery. A cold front will have come through early in the day. The cold air will sort of lag behind the front a bit. So we'll end up with average daytime temperatures, something close to 40 degrees. The wind will blast out of the west with gusts to 30 oe 35 mph.  A few scattered rain and snow showers will blow through from time to time. 

The northern and central Green Mountains have a shot at several inches of snow Thursday night and Friday as lake effect snow and somewhat moist west winds generate some pretty good snow showers in the high elevations 

Low elevations should have lighter snow showers Thanksgiving night and Friday. 

Enjoy the lull in weather excitement. It's still looking like the weather pattern will become rather volatile as we get into December. That means lots of potential storms to watch. To make things interesting, the first blast of true Arctic air looks to come into the U.S. around the first of the month. 

So far, at least, the worst of the frigid air looks like it might mostly stay to our west - hitting the Rockies and Plains hardest. 

Wednesday Evening Vermont Thanksgiving Storm Update: Getting A Little More Intense?

Wednesday evening snow prediction map. Projected
amounts have gone up some, but the high elevations
of southern and central Vermont are in the sweet spot
for heaviest snow. Looks like everyone in Vermont
will get at least a little, though. 

 A few changes to the forecast came up this afternoon that could make the long-hyped Thanksgiving storm a little wilder in at least parts of Vermont than first thought. 

The forecast track of the storm nudged just slightly northward compared to this morning's forecast. 

That could well put a band of especially heavy snow into parts of southern and central Vermont for a few hours Thursday afternoon.

The slight adjustment to the forecast would also put central Vermont ski areas in play for several inches of snow. And unlike this morning's predictions, the Champlain Valley now looks like it will get a little snow. Not much, but a little. 

The bottom line is depending on which part of Vermont you're in, the storm you experience will be far different than if you a Vermonter in another part of the state.

Details: 

The sweet spot still looks like the high elevations of southern Vermont.  There, heavy, wet snow will accumulate quickly, especially during the afternoon. 

That means roads in that part of the state could become nearly impassable at times. Power outages look like a good bet, and some back roads might be blocked by snow, and fallen branches and trees.

Meanwhile, people in nearby low elevations like Bennington and Brattleboro might wonder what all the fuss is about. 

The mid and high elevation heavy snow, or at least heavy-ish, now looks like it will extend to central Vermont. Yay! Sugarbush and Mad River Glen!

A classic November landscape in St. Albans on Wednesday
with shafts of sun and dark clouds mingling with
stick season. By tomorrow afternoon and evening, virtually
all of Vermont will have some snow on the ground,
and parts of central and southern Vermont will have a lot.

This storm has a boatload of moisture with it, so that's one reason for the heavy snow potential. It's also a quick mover, so this will be in an out quickly.

 Which is why the forecasts don't really call for one of those 20 inch blockbusters. But a foot of snow in some spot is not out of the question.

Things will go downhill in the morning, and start to clear up a few hours after dark Thanksgiving night. 

For the record, a winter storm warning is up for the two southernmost counties Vermont, east of Route 7 in Rutland County, east of Route 116 in Addison County, along with all of Windsor, Orange and Washington counties. 

Places under the winter storm warning can expect four to nine inches of snow, except locally more in higher elevations. Especially at places like Okemo and Mount Snow. 

A winter weather advisory is up for the rest of Vermont except Franklin and Grand Isle counties, where no particular alerts are up. The advisory zone should get one to four inches of new snow.

The Champlain Valley still looks like it'll have a lot of rain mixed in, but there should be a complete changeover to some snow in the later afternoon or evening. So many areas there will see their first accumulations of the season. Though it won't be spectacular.

Bottom Line

Expect highly variable travel conditions in Vermont all day Thanksgiving, but it will be mostly bad on the roads.  The higher you go up in elevation, the worse it will get. At times in central and southern Vermont, the snow will accumulate too quickly for road crews to really get on top  of it. 

The storm will probably peak from late morning to late afternoon or early evening. 

If you don't have to travel Thanksgiving day, don't. If you want to get to your Thanksgiving destination safely, try to get there by 7 a.m. tomorrow. 

If you want to leave, consider waiting until Friday morning to do so. By then, the storm will be out of our hair, and road crews will have had a chance to clean everything up. 

Power outages are most likely in mid and high elevations of southern and central Vermont and are most likely in the afternoon. 

For many in Vermont, this will be the biggest Thanksgiving snowstorm since the granddaddy of big humdinger Thanksgiving snows back in 1971. 

 

As Of Wednesday Morning, Everything You Need To Know About New England Thanksgiving Snow

Latest snow accumulation forecast map for our
anticipated Thanksgiving storm. The sweet spot
for heaviest snow looks to be the higher 
elevations of southern Vermont, and a good'
chunk of New Hampshire. 

 Now that we're 24 hours away from our expected Thanksgiving snows, winter storm watches are now up for central New York, central and southern Vermont, much of New Hampshire and southern Maine. 

Basically, our long-hyped Thanksgiving storm will feature in a nice snow hit in central New England. Points further south will see rain, and points further north won't see anything heavy. 

Our storm will be a day long affair, so there won't be a particular time on Thanksgiving Day where it is completely "safe" on the roads to avoid the snow. 

Today: If you want to get to your Thanksgiving destination, today is the perfect day to do it, as there will be no weather issues to speak of. A few light rain and snow showers were departing early today, and we'll have some partly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures.

Roads were fine this morning, and will stay that way all day. Traffic might be heavy in spots, but oh well. Weather related flight delays in and out of the airport in Burlington shouldn't be a big problem either. But it's an extremely heavy air travel day, so problems are inevitable. Check before you leave home whether your flight is still on schedule, and if it is, get to the airport early. 

Thanksgiving: Our storm is taking a perfect path to dump a substantial amount of snow on the southern half of Vermont and a good chunk of New Hampshire. With a caveat I'll get into in a sec.

Before we get any further, do note, that there is still a little disagreement among forecasts as to just how heavy the snow will get and exactly where the heaviest stuff will set up. What follows is how things look as of Wednesday morning. 

The storm should be about over New York City at the start of the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade tomorrow morning, making for a soggy, rainy event. The storm will then trek northeastward to a spot a little south and east of Boston in the afternoon. 

In this type of storm, the heaviest snow usually sets up 50 to 100 miles north an west of its center. Which puts southern Vermont in the crosshairs.   

The winter storm watch currently covers Vermont south of a line from roughly Middlebury to St. Johnsbury.  Western and central New Hampshire is also now under a winter storm watch. 

Southern Vermont

It looks like southern and central Vermont ski areas from about Killington south are in the sweet spot, and they should see a good six inches of snow at least. We might even see isolated instances of a foot of snow if things work out right. 

Here's the caveat I mentioned: Southern Vermont valleys are a wild card. This storm doesn't have much cold air to work with so the valleys will probably be looking at a rain/snow mix. However, sometimes, when precipitation gets heavy enough, it cools the atmosphere. If that happens, southern Vermont valleys could get a nice burst of more torrential snow. That could surprise folks with several inches of snow if that happens. 

The snow should we wet and heavy and sloppy, so I do worry there could be some power outages here and there. Which is sub-optimal, as I would put it, if you're cooking a Thanksgiving feast. If you live in higher elevations in southern Vermont, try to prepare as many meals ahead of time as you can. 

This area of heaviest snow should also encompass much of New Hampshire away from the seacoast. 

Northern Vermont

The northern half of the state, mostly north of Route 4, looks like it will be too far north to enjoy the heaviest snow. Higher elevations should still see a couple to a few inches of snow - one to five inches, depending on elevation.

The big "loser" in this storm - if you enjoy snow - would be the Champlain Valley.  It'll be too warm for much snow there. And the precipitation won't be heavy enough to cool the air like it might in southern Vermont. 

So, expect a cold rain, maybe mixed with sloppy wet snowflakes from time to time. The storm might end as a period of wet snow Thanksgiving night, but it's not looking like it will amount to much. 

Travel and Timing

The snow and rain will start early in the day and end later at night, so no matter how you slice it, you'll be dealing with weather on Vermont roads any time Thanksgiving Day. 

Roads of course can get slick anywhere, but anywhere that's  above 1,000 feet is sure to have snow-covered roads. Wet snow tends to compact in ice under car tires. Then that ice mixes with a little water to really create skating rinks on the pavement. 

This storm is a quick mover, so things should be improving greatly by Friday morning. If you're one of those crazies that get up way before dawn to hi the Black Friday deals, you probably will encounter some slick spots.

But during the day, main roads should clear up nicely, especially since Friday afternoon temperatures should get a little above freezing in most spots 

Up in the mountains and ski areas, any snow that does fall should mostly stick around for a long time, as forecasters expect cold weather to start this weekend and last well into December. 

No matter where it snows

Brief Tuesday Evening Thanksgiving Vermont Travel Update: Messy, But Could Be Worse?

Gloomy skies Tuesday afternoon, after rain and freezing
rain departed. Next up, a sloppy mix of rain and snow
seems likely on Thanksgiving. 

 Forecasters have settled on a Vermont Thanksgiving Day scenario in which we get a fairly quick shot of rain and snow, but with any luck, this could do more good than harm. 

Before we get to Thanksgiving, the freezing rain that caused havoc on Vermont roads this morning is gone. Good riddance. Light rain or snow showers might be scattered around tonight, but no biggie.

As of Tuesday evening, the forecast calls for not all that much snow in Vermont valleys. It'll be rain mixes with snow or just plain cold rain for most of the event, that is if the forecast holds.

The mountains (Read: Ski areas) get several inches of snow at least under this scenario. 

The event looks like it will be an all day affair on Thanksgiving, with the precipitation peaking from late morning to early evening. 

Slick roads are possible anywhere in Vermont with this, but higher elevations of course would be the worst.

One big caveat: Remember how I kept telling you for the past few days that the European computer models give us a much bigger snowstorm than the American?

Well, as of late Tuesday afternoon, the European model is stubbornly sticking to its story of giving us a fairly substantial snowstorm, even in the valleys. 

The other models are coalescing around a less snowy outcome. Except in the mountains. Especially southern Vermont mountains. 

But one thing to remember: The granddaddy of big Thanksgiving snowstorms, in 1971, was supposed to be a modest affair and ended up dumping eight to 20 inches of snow on Vermont.

Forecast accuracy has come a long way since 1971, so don't hold your breath for a repeat. But you never know.....

I'll have more details in tomorrow morning's post. 

Vermont Thanksgiving Snow Forecast: Not A Huge Storm (We Think!) But Some Travel Trouble

The roads probably won't be quite this gummed up
with snow on Thanksgiving in Vermont, but it now
looks guaranteed that at least parts of the state
will have some travel issues with snow
on the holiday. Especially in higher elevations. 

 Once we get past the icy mess on some of Vermont's roads, highways and sidewalks this fine Tuesday morning, we look ahead to that potential Thanksgiving snow we've been talking about for days now.

The early read on this thing is it won't be an enormous snowfall, at least for us in Vermont, but it will probably be enough to complicate things on the roads once again. 

It's another sign The slick road thing started this morning and we should get used to it. We'll be dealing with it an awful lot at least through most of March. 

By the way, this morning was a mess, I'm not kidding. Interstate 89 near Exits 7 and 8, that's around Montpelier and Berlin was gummed up with several cars and trucks sliding off the road and/or crashing.  The Exit 7 on ramp to 89 northbound was closed for awhile, too.

Hardwick officials were warning people to stay off the roads. Pretty much all rural roads in central and eastern Vermont were a mess. 

So, bottom line, if you're planning on being on the roads today in Vermont, you're all set if you wait until late morning or early afternoon.  

Wednesday continues to look fine for road travel in and near Vermont. That leads us to Thanksgiving.

THANKSGIVING

While details of the forecast still need to be sorted out, we're getting a more clear picture of what to expect. At least we know pretty much for sure now that Vermont will at least be affected to some extent by this system coming through. 

Here's what it looks like at this point. I have to yell from the rafters, though, that this is subject to change. More info coming in later today and tomorrow will probably cause some forecast adjustments 

It'll be another modest, mid-sized storm heading by to our south.  So southern and central Vermont should see the most snow.  Early guess are one to four inches. Maybe more in the mountains from Killington south. 

Less snow will fall to the north, but light precipitation is expected all the way to the Canadian border and beyond. 

This looks like it might turn out to be another one of those elevation type storms.  The mountains could get some heavy wet snow and travel issues, even maybe some unwelcome power outages here and there. Broader, warmer valleys might be warm enough for rain to mix in, or for things to just change over to a cold rain.  

Things should switch back over to snow Thanksgiving night even in low elevations, so the trip home might be dicey too. 

After this goes by, the weekend will have a wintry feel with blustery winds, cold temperatures and snow showers here and there, especially up in the mountains. 

Like I said all this could change with subsequent forecasts, but I think meteorologists have gotten a pretty good handle on this. 

Just A Brief Monday Evening Iffy Storm Update: Still Deciding On Vermont Snow

As of Monday evening, we were still awaiting some agreement
on the computer models on whether it will be a snowy
Vermont Thanksgiving or just a meh kind of weather day.

 Frustratingly, we still don't have all that much firm forecasting on the potential storm in New England on Thanksgiving.  

Since this morning, the forecasts have leaned a little more toward the less dire scenario, with some snow but not all that much. Plus, this scenario doesn't have much cold air, so we'd also have some rain in the warmer valleys, but not a super substantial snowstorm.

The European model continues to cling to a scenario in which Vermont and surrounding areas get several inches of snow Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving night.  

Let's hope Tuesday morning forecasts are more consistent, we'll see 

We're still looking at icy roads in central and eastern Vermont early tomorrow morning from light freezing rain that's expected to fall, starting in the pre-dawn  hours. It'll change to rain later in the morning. 

The one place where forecasts are remarkably consistent is for the week or two after Thanksgiving. It'll be colder than  normal, so winter will have arrived. Unfortunately, extended forecasts have trended drier than normal, too, so we won't get much snow or other precipitation to erase the dry conditions we still have, despite some recent rains. 

Monday Morning Vermont Thanksgiving Week Travel Forecast: Still Some Questions (Sigh!)

Turkeys in the snow a few winters ago in St. Albans,
Vermont. We're still not sure whether Thanksgiving,
2024 in Vermont will be snowy or not. Some 
clarity in the forecast is emerging, though.

 We know the decidedly non-wintry November we've had so far will take a decisively wintry turn this week with expected bouts of ice, snow, wind and cold, but the questions still swirl around how things will go Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday. 

The computer models are still split on what's going to happen in Vermont and the rest of northern New England, but the answers are slowly coming into focus. Sort of. 

But before we get to that, we do have one tale of travel trouble regionally before we get to Thanksgiving. 

We'll take it day by day again here 

Today: Nothing to worry about at all. There should be at least some sun, temperatures will reach the pretty seasonable low to mid 40s, and winds won't be a factor. If your Thanksgiving getaway starts today you're in luck.

Tuesday. Definitely the first uh-oh day of the bunch. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has hoisted a winter weather advisory from 1 a.m. to 1 p.m. Tuesday for the eastern half of Vermont.

That's for some expected freezing rain, unfortunately. 

It's from that long-advertised relatively minor storm system coming in from the west.  The rain is expected to start just in time for the Tuesday morning commute. It should be cold enough along and east of the Green Mountains for some freezing rain. It'll be patchy, so you'll need to be ready for road surprises early Tuesday.

You'll be cruising along on wet pavement, then you turn a corner or go down a hill and suddenly it's a skating rink. It looks like it will be just a bit too warm for freezing rain in the Champlain Valley, but it will be close. So keep an eye on that. 

By late morning Tuesday it will have warmed up, so by then it should just be raining.  If you have to travel anywhere tomorrow, wait until late morning and you should be fine. 

Those ice alerts, by the way, extend into the Adirondacks, most of New Hampshire and western Maine.

Wednesday: Still looking fine. Partly cloudy and seasonable. No travel trouble. 

Thanksgiving: The European and American computer models are still arguing with each other on this one. 

The European model keeps bringing Vermont and most of the rest of northern New England a decent snowfall, while the American is persisting on a whiff to the south. 

The consensus among the models is leaning toward snow in our neck of the woods but as of this Monday morning it's still not a slam dunk. 

As the National Weather Service office in South Burlington explains it, a key to this is what an upper level low way up by James Bay Canada does.

If it backs up to the west a little bit more, it'll draw the storm northward more and Vermont gets snow. This is what the European model thinks will happen.

On the other hand, the American model has that thing up by James Bay elongate in an east-west arrangement. That would force the next storm to more southward and miss us. We'd get little or no snow. 

The ingredients for our possible Thanksgiving storm were just approaching the West Coast early today. Once those ingredients get inland later today, the models will be able to take better samples of it to judge how the wannabe storm will interact with the upper level storm up in James Bay.

I'm hoping by this evening we'll have a better idea. Fingers crossed! 

If it does snow on Thanksgiving, it will probably be a fairly wet snow, and there's still a possibility it could be mixed with rain, especially south. That's another question that's yet to be fully answered. If we do get the storm, it'll probably be a day-long thing and its effects on roads would probably last into Friday morning.

So if you're getting up way before dawn for Black Friday sales, gawd knows why, keep that in mind

Thanksgiving Snow History

If it does snow on Thanksgiving it certainly won't be the first time that's happened. Records from Burlington show that measurable snow has fallen on 32 Thanksgivings since 1893. 

Far and away the biggest Thanksgiving snow was in 1971. Burlington had 8.6 inches of snow that day, but other parts of Vermont had much more. Montpelier and Waitsfield each clocked in with a whopping 20 inches. 

If it does snow on Thanksgiving this year, it will be a pretty late first measurable snow for many of us. 

The average date for the first measurable snow of the season in Burlington is November 7.  (The latest first measurable snow was on December 7, 2009.

Sunday Evening Update On Thanksgiving Iffy Storm: Little New Clarity

Cold late November light Sunday afternoon, St. Albans,
Vermont. We still have not much clarity on what might
happen with a potential winter storm over the
Thanksgiving holiday. Stay tuned!

 Since everyone is interested in Thanksgiving holiday travel, I thought I'd throw out a little Sunday evening update on potential storminess in Vermont and the Northeast.  

Unfortunately, I don't have much new clarity fresh clarity on this, as the computer models are disagreeing on what might happen. 

Since people will be traveling all week, here's the latest updates for in and around Vermont

Monday: You're fine. Nothing to worry about.

Tuesday: Looks like we're in for a little freezing rain and even sleet in parts of Vermont early on Tuesday as the next storm blows in. It won't be much, but just a tiny bit of freezing rain will cause havoc. Freezing rain is least likely in the Champlain Valley, most likely in eastern Vermont.

It'll warm up by late morning, so if you're on the roads Tuesday, wait until after 10 a.m. or so. By then, it'll just be plain rain. 

Wednesday: There might be some mountain snow showers and slick spots early in the morning, but things should improve pretty quickly. Just like on Tuesday, if you wait until after 9 or 10 a.m. or so to hit the roads, you should be fine

Thanksgiving and Friday: Here's where the question marks are still huge. Just as in this morning's forecast, the European computer models give Vermont and the rest of northern New England either a moderate snowfall, or some snow and mixed garbage. 

The American model tries to take everything too far south of Vermont to cause much snow. However, some of the American models this afternoon have trended north with the storm, which could be an early sign that the American model is beginning to gel with the European.

I don't know whether this is a trend, but we'll watch it tomorrow and Tuesday.  I'm hoping we have a better handle on this by Tuesday night. 

Saturday and Beyond: Broad brush, it looks like it will be cold and wintry and breezy with snow showers, but I can't offer anything more specific than that just yet. 

Vermont/Northeast Winter Storm Rumors For Thanksgiving Weekend Are True. With Asterisks

Breaks of sun visible this morning west of St. Albans,
Vermont this morning, but those darker clouds
overhead move east and develop into snow showers
by the time they hit the western slopes of the 
Green Mountains. No biggie, but there's a possible
larger winter storm looming end of week.

 Even as many other parts of the nation have received their first substantial snows of the season, most of Vermont and the rest of northern New England is still waiting.  

If current forecasts hold true, there's a decent chance that wait might be over starting later on Thanksgiving Day and continuing into next weekend.

There's a chance we could see a fairly substantial snowstorm in Vermont and other parts of northern New York and New England at the end of the upcoming week.

It's by no means a slam dunk. It's a good four to five days away so things could radically change. Yes, an expected storm could take a "perfect path" across eastern New England and give Vermont several inches of snow.

But this thing could still go too far south to give us much. Or it could come too far north, or not have enough cold air to work with, and we end up with an icy, rainy, schmutz.

More on that storm in a bit, but first, we have to go through some winter appetizer systems before we get to the potential main event at the end of the week.

TODAY

Today could be interesting in parts of Vermont, but not in an extreme way. 

That storm that gave the wet, sometimes snowy and weird weather to the Northeast the past couple of days is now off in the Canadian Maritimes.

We have that classic post-storm northwest flow of air.  Those of us in the northern Champlain Valley can see patches of blue this morning off to the northwest, but the Green Mountains look socked in by clouds.

Winds coming down the slopes of the Adirondacks suppress clouds, causing that narrow band of clearing on the west shore of Lake Champlain. But the air is forced to rise as it heads into the Green Mountains. That rising air makes moisture condense into snow showers. 

Some of those snow showers could back as far west as Route 7 today, so those areas might see what has been a rare sight so far this year - snowflakes. 

Those flakes won't accumulate in the valleys, but they will up in the ,mountains. Maybe just one to three inches of new snow, with more than six on some of the northern Green Mountain summits. So at least some places in Vermont will end up finally looking like winter today. 

Whatever happens, it will feel blustery, and cold today. So bundle up like it is winter. Because it kinda is. 

EARLY WEEK

After a quiet Monday, a modest storm comes through Monday night and Tuesday. This one looks warm enough to bring more rain. However - and it's a big however - this could start as freezing rain in central and eastern Vermont. 

It won't be a lot, but when it comes to freezing rain, a little dab will do ya. I'd start planning on possible slick roads for the Tuesday morning commute. Even a brief shower of freezing rain is enough to mess up the roads. 

Any freezing rain will thaw out during the day. But after the storm goes by, colder air will change things to snow showers Tuesday night, so there might be slick spots Wednesday morning, too.

THE MAIN EVENT

For those of you traveling on Thanksgiving, the morning should be fine. It's just the evening, and Black Friday travel days that might be the issue. 

Again, we're not sure of the path of this potential storm  yet. This morning's American computer model mostly takes it too far south of us to cause much hassle. 

The European computer model in general creates a stronger storm that moves up from the Mid-Atlantic States and right through eastern New England Friday. That puts us in the cross hairs for either a snowfall in Vermont or even a mix of crap.

Stay tuned for updates on this. Nobody is sure who will win this forecasting battle: The American or European models. It's a tossup.

If any snow does fall out of this, it will stick around for awhile as the weather pattern is shifting to a cold, wintry one that keeps any real thaws away from us heading well into December. 

Quick Monday Update: Cold Today, Still Messy Vermont Tuesday/Wednesday

The sun was out as a fairly heavy snow shower approached
St. Albans, Vermont Sunday afternoon. The snow 
shower was brief and left only a dusting of 
snow on the ground. 

UPDATE 5 PM TUESDAY

Winter weather advisories have been posted for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning for areas of Vermont and New York outside the Champlain Valley.

We should see enough snow and mixed precipitation in those areas to really slicken up the roads over Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

The Champlain Valley is also in line for some snow and mixed precipitation, but that will fairly quickly change over to rain late Tuesday night or very early 

Wednesday morning, at least as it looks now. 

There still might be some icky roads in spots even in the Champlain Valley through early Wednesday, so be careful. I'd still advise postponing road trips to later Wednesday morning or afternoon. By then, almost everybody will be just seeing plain rain, and it will be tapering off slowly during the afternoon. 

By the way, this same storm system appears to be creating a tornado outbreak in Louisiana and Mississippi this evening.  There's been very little severe weather in the South this autumn. However, when there's an El Nino, severe weather outbreaks become common in the South. Let's hope tonight's dangerous weather down there is not the start of a trend. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 I'll just to a quick update today on the upcoming Vermont messy weather, with a lot more details to come in a post tomorrow morning. 

First of all, Sunday was classic Vermont November, wasn't it? The sun would come out, then we'd get a snow shower, more sun, then more snow. With blustery northwest winds blowing the entire time.

A few of Sunday's  snow showers were relatively heavy. Not snow squalls, but enough to leave a dusting of snow in many spots. 

 Snow showers continued mostly in the northern third of Vermont overnight, so there might be some slick spots this Monday morning on the roads.

 It looked like the snow is probably accumulating a little along the western slopes and summits of the Green Mountains early this morning.  

Eventually, today will be cold and dry as previously advertised. The bad stuff comes in Tuesday night and Wednesday. 

I think this will be one of those situations where we'll be telling you right through the event to expect the unexpected.

Broadly, we know snow Tuesday night will mix with and change to sleet, freezing rain and then rain overnight and Wednesday.

When and where the changeover happens will always be tricky. Even during the storm Wednesday morning things will probably be changing quickly from one hazard to another.  The timing of any changeovers will depend on location, and especially elevation. 

I'm guessing the "safest" place early Wednesday will be the Champlain Valley, but even there, roads will probably have their winter issues. 

This won't be a tremendously big storm. But of course those smaller storms are often the ones to watch out for.  It lulls people into thinking it's not that bad out - until they hit that patch of ice. 

At this point snow accumulations will probably be a dusting to four inches. There will be light accumulations of ice here and there. Total precipitation - rain and melted snow and ice, looks to be a moderate third to a half inch, maybe a little more in southern Vermont. 

I'm sticking to what I said yesterday. If you need to travel somewhere on Wednesday, the best bet is to delay it to later in the morning or afternoon.  By then, you're more likely to encounter just rain instead of snow and ice. 

Quiet weather is still in the cards for Thanksgiving Day. 

The Vermont Week Ahead: November Annoyances Continue

Norway maple leaves, some still green remarkably remain
on trees in Burlington, Vermont Saturday. Warm nights 
this autumn have kept the foliage on these trees much,
much later than normal. 

Although it's been a relatively chilly Vermont November so far, I'm still struck by the lack of nighttime cold.  

So far this season in Burlington, the coldest it's gotten is 29 degrees.  

The normal low this time of year is 31 degrees, so you'd think we would have had nights colder than the upper 20s by now. For perspective record lows this time of year are in the single digits above zero.

The result is, in more urban areas of Vermont anyway, a few leaves have stuck to some trees.  

Norway maples usually lose their leaves pretty much last of all the trees except larches and Bartlett pears.  But the Norway maple leaves have in the past always been gone by early November. 

Yesterday was November 18 and the leaves are still hanging on, at least around Burlington.  I've never seen anything close to this before. Another albeit minor sign of climate change, maybe?

In any event, this week should get rid of those leaves once and for all. A pretty good cold front today will eventually plunge temperatures into the teens to maybe near 20 by Tuesday morning, so that will bring us toward winter. 

The whole week is setting up to be fairly wintry, as we remain stuck in a cold weather pattern. I don't see any epic storms coming our way, but there will be trouble from time to time. 

Let's break it down day by day.

TODAY: 

I, and the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, noticed some buzz on social media last night of the possibility of snow squalls today, which can be dangerous. 

It ain't going to happen. Take the snow squalls off your schedule today and don't worry about it. It was just the usual social media clickbait and fake news. 

With a cold front coming through today and a generally unstable environment, there's a decent chance of seeing some snow showers around. But they won't be heavy, and might mix with rain in warmer valleys. 

The favored western slopes of the central and northern Green Mountains might see a couple inches out of this, but most of us will see a dusting at best. 

MONDAY:

A cold one to start getting rid of those pesky yellow Norway maple leaves clinging to the trees, preventing you from raking the lawn. If you're in central or northern Vermont, I doubt the temperature will get above freezing all day. For many of us, it will be the first such day of the winter season.  Aside from a few mountain flurries in the morning, we might actually see some sun in the afternoon. Yippee! 

Monday night will be cold for this time of year, as mentioned, with temperatures bottoming out in those teens. Maybe some single numbers in the coldest hollows.

TUESDAY:

Quiet and cold in advance of a messy storm. Increasing clouds, highs in the 30s

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

The mess of the week, just in time for Thanksgiving travel.  The forecast details will become clear in the next day or two. But for now, expect a messy mix of wintry crap coming out of the sky overnight Tuesday and likely into Wednesday morning.

Obviously, that means roads could be kind of nasty in the morning.  At this point, it's looking like it might go over to rain in most spots Wednesday afternoon. So if you can delay your trip until then, that might be a good idea.

THANKSGIVING:

Back to quiet and cold with snow showers around. Unless Wednesday's storm somehow gets hung up nearby, there shouldn't be enough so to cause travel trouble.

BLACK FRIDAY

Sorry, but Black Friday is a day I distain.  If you want to wait in a cold, blustery parking lot hours for dawn to grab those so called door buster deals, knock yourself out. Perhaps literally, the way some people behave on Black Friday. In any event, no storms seem likely on Friday. Just snow flurries to give you a bit of holiday cheer of sorts. 

Remember the further out the forecast, the more likely it will change. Expect the forecast for later in the week, especially Wednesday through Friday, to get some updates. 

A Rare Nice Vermont November Day Was Unfortunately A One-Off

Sorry about the wires marring the photo a bit, but 
for the second evening in a row Thursday, St. Albans,
Vermont was treated to a great sunset after
a nice day.   No more nice days are in the forecast, though.

UPDATE: 6:15 FRIDAY

Not much to update for a change!

Rain has moved into northwestern Vermont this evening right on schedule and will gradually overtake the rest of the state tonight before tapering off by the morning. 

Some upper elevations, especially north, could see some snow at the end. But it won't amount to much. 

There's actually a shot at some places in Vermont seeing some unexpected sun Saturday afternoon, especially in the lower Connecticut River Valley. 

The storm on Wednesday is still a wild card, as I mentioned in the post I wrote this morning, as you can see below. 

The latest American computer model from late this afternoon has the Wednesday system turning into no biggie for us. However, other computer models still blast us with wind, mixed precipitation and rain. Stay tuned! 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

This has been an especially dark and cloudy and chilly November, so Thursday was quite a treat.

Sunshine dominated for a change, and afternoon temperatures were actually warmer than normal for a change - reaching the 50s.  A few warmer southern Vermont valleys touched 60. 

I hope you liked it, because it's over. Probably for the rest of the month. 

We'll have one last warm day today, but it will be clouding up, getting windy in some spots and rain will arrive by dark, or a little after that east of the Green Mountains. 

Most of us will get at least a quarter inch of rain overnight, with several spots coming in near a half inch. Not a big deal, really. 

But, from tonight on, it's going go be cold, we'll have risks of snow occasionally, and it's actually going to be somewhat stormier than we've dealt with so far this month. It's just been little systems so far.

Going forward, we'll still have little storm systems, but they'll pack a little bigger oomph than the ones earlier this month. And we have probably a much larger storm to deal with heading toward Wednesday and Thanksgiving. 

There's something new coming up every day, but the general theme is kinda wintry. We're late enough into the season now that almost every storm from now into March at least, big or small, will involve some snow or mixed precipitation. 

The details:

Saturday: 

Many places in northern and central Vermont, especially higher elevations, will wake up to a dusting of snow.  It'll get cold enough toward the end of tonight's rain for a switch to snow.  It won't amount to much, but there could be some slick spots on the roads early in the morning. 

It will be chilly and cloudy all day, with a northwest wind to make it feel worse

Sunday

A relatively impressive cold front will mess with us Sunday. 

Light snow with this could start before dawn, and many if not most places in central and northern Vermont could see another dusting on the ground. In the warmer valleys, that dusting might melt during the day as temperatures get a little above freezing.

Mid and high elevations could hold on to the white covering, as showers should be in the form of snow all day up there, so a couple inches could pile up away from the valleys.  

The National Weather Service in South Burlington tells us mountain summits could see as much as three to six inches of snow out of this. 

Monday:

Our best chance of shot at seeing some sun for the next week at least, but it will come with a price. For the first time this season, most of us won't get above freezing. Except maybe the warmer valleys central and south. 

Tuesday

At this point it looks like it will stay cold, with increasing clouds ahead of our next, larger storm. If things work out as expected, it should stay dry.

Wednesday

This day is a wild card, which sucks because many people are traveling for the Thanksgiving holiday. The models have been shifting wildly. For instance, the American computer model last night had a large, strong, windy double-barreled storm affecting the Northeast. Under this scenario, we'd deal with potentially gusty winds and a mix changing to rain, then snow showers after the storm goes by Thursday.

This morning's run of the American model was WAY different. It has a more modest storm passing to our south, giving us much less wind, but a moderate-sized snowfall. So far, the European model is sticking with the windy mix to rain scenario. Stay tuned!

Thanksgiving

Depending how the big storm sugars out, there could be a huge lake effect snowstorm in New York downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario. That would send some lighter snow showers into Vermont, especially the mountains.  It'll be cold again! 

 

Vermont's Thanksgiving Weather Pleasant Enough This Year. That's Not Always The Case

The biggest travel trouble in Vermont this Thanksgiving
might be scraping TONS of frost from vehicles. 
Thanksgiving weather in Vermont isn't always this easy. 

If you have to drive anywhere in Vermont today for Thanksgiving, you're in luck. 

The forecast remains the same as we've been touting for a few days now. There's no weather issues, save for slick spots on bridges and overpasses early this morning from frost. 

 There's nothing else to worry about on the roads, at least in terms of weather. 

Temperatures will be quite close to normal. The average high temperature in Burlington on Thanksgiving is 39 degrees. The normal low is 26 degree. The forecast high for today in Burlington is 43 degrees The low this morning was right around 25.

This Thanksgiving will be the first in four years without measurable precipitation.  That's a little off normal, because most Thanksgivings tend to have at least a trace of precipitation, and fairly often, that's in the form of snow. 

On average, there's just 0.11 inches of precipitation on Thanksgiving and 0.5 inches of snow.

I really can't detect any trends in temperature and precipitation over the years on Thanksgiving. It does of course, hit on different dates each year, so that just increases the amount of potential randomness about the kind of conditions you'd see on the holiday.

The warmest Thanksgiving in Burlington, at least, was 63 degrees in 1941. The low temperature that day in 1941 was 52 degrees, which is the highest low temperature for Thanksgiving. 

The chilliest Thanksgiving on record was in the cold year of 1972, when it got down to 2 degrees. 

However, a great argument can be made that the actual coldest Thanksgiving was just four years ago, in 2018. The high temperature that day was 14 degrees, the most frigid "high" temperature for a Thanksgiving. Next morning, November 23, 2018, for the Black Friday sales, it was minus 1 in Burlington, setting a new mark for the earliest subzero reading on record.

The wettest and Thanksgiving was in 1920, when there was 0.95 inches of melted precipitation. That precipitation came as 7.5 inches of snow, so 1920 held the record for snowiest Thanksgiving, at least until 1971

That 1971 Thanksgiving produced 8.6 inches of snow in Burlington. This was a pretty epic snowstorm, and Burlington actually had among the smallest snowfall totals in the state that day.  

It snowed all day on Thanksgiving, 1971, with 20 inches reported in Waitsfield and Montpelier, a foot in Rutland and 14 inches in Rochester. That was the start of a Vermont snowy winter. The 108.9 inches of snow that fell on Burlington in the winter of 1971-72 still ranks as the seventh snowiest winter on record. 

We've seen some other memorable storms on or around Thanksgiving. The day after Thanksgiving, 1950, the Great Appalachian Storm hit, bringing a killer blizzard west of the mountain range and extreme winds east. Burlington, Vermont in that storm had a gust to 72 mph, still its highest winds on record. 

So, overall, we're lucky, at least in terms of weather this Thanksgiving. The weather won't be memorable at all. But I do hope everyone has a happy, memorable and lovely Thanksgiving 2022.

 

Knock On Wood, Vermont Forecast Finally Getting Consistent For Weekend: Wet

A frozen flower on a snow dusted honeysuckle vine at 
our house in St. Albans, Vermont. Winter hit 
fairly abruptly, and this flower wasn't ready. Looking
forward to more blooms next year. 

After I whined yesterday about forecasts being totally inconsistent for the end of this week and weekend, things seem to be stabilizing, knock on wood. 

Since things are a little more reliable, maybe we can make weekend plans better.

One piece of the forecast that's been solid for days now is for today and tomorrow, Thanksgiving Day. And that hasn't changed a whit with updated forecasts, which is great news. 

If you have travel plans in the region for both days, you're in good shape. 

Some of us did get a dusting of snow early this morning and a few flurries linger, but don't worry about those. They won't amount to anything. 

Skies today and tomorrow might not be totally sunny, but there probably will be a few breaks. The bonus is no precipitation is in the cards. No ice on the roads to worry about.

We finally do get into the precipitation Friday, but for most of us, it will be rain. It wont be a blockbuster at all, either.  

Current forecasts give us a quarter inch or less.  Some places might see some wet snowflakes when the little storm starts Friday, but it probably won't amount to anything. Mountain summits in Vermont might see mostly snow out of this, but anybody below 2,000 feet in elevation or so is looking at mostly rain.

If you haven't installed your outdoor Christmas decorations yet, Saturday is shaping up to be a great day to do it. It'll be sort of mild, with afternoon temperatures getting into the 40s. We'll also see some sun, and the wind won't be particularly strong at all.

The next storm on Sunday is still looking like a rainy one.  At this point, Sunday is looking like a washout, but given how forecasts can change this time of year, (Boy, can they!) we'll attention to updates. 

 

Forecasts More Squirrely Than Usual; Post-Thanksgiving Storm Forecast Out The Window

We've had some snow on the ground for a week now
in St. Albans, Vermont, but seasonable temperatures will
probably thaw most of the remainder away, for now. 
Meanwhile, forecasts for after thanksgiving keep changing. 

 I unintentionally lied to you yesterday. 

I waxed poetic in yesterday's post about a potential fairly big storm Friday and/or Saturday with the risk of a fair amount of rain, wind and maybe some snow. 

So much for that idea. 

All the forecasts shifted since yesterday, so now the predictions for what's going to happen late week are all different. And, frankly, I don't trust those forecasts yet, either. 

I'm still confident on the weather today through Thanksgiving Day.

Aside from the risk of a few snow showers overnight tonight, it'll be dry with average temperatures through Thanksgiving. That means highs in the upper 30s to low 40s, lows in the 20s. Really not bad for this time of year. 

Beyond that, the computer models have been really having a hard time, which makes real life meteorologists pull out their hair. 

At this point, instead of a big system coming up the coast, we'll just get a cold front with some light rain and a little wind Friday, no big deal. It might end as a little snow Friday night, but again, meh.

Then, supposedly, another storm comes along Sunday that will bring more mostly rain, but again, not an epic storm

Like I said, I'm not entirely trusting this forecast as it stands now, so stay tuned for more changes. On the very bright side, we don't have to worry nearly as much about post Thanksgiving travel trouble. I think. 

There are always shifts in forecast in the days before any storm, but this time, the shifts have been enormous. I'm not sure why. 

Wintry, Windy Rest Of Sunday In Vermont, And There's Always Some Sort Of Storm Thanksgiving Week

The National Weather Service's seven day map of expected
precipitation shows something coming through the 
Northeast. We'll see what happens.

This is among the stormiest times of year in the United States. The increasingly strong rushes of cold air from Canada conflict with the lingering warmth of autumn in the south.  

Plus the Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Ocean and the Great Lakes don't cool down in the autumn as fast as the air. So they're relatively warm.  

All this clashing helps encourage storms. There's almost always some sort of disruptive storm somewhere in the nation during Thanksgiving travel time.

True to form it does look like we here in Vermont will have to deal with some sort of precipitation event toward the end of the week. How much and what type of precipitation is still way open to question, but it's something to keep an eye on.

The good news is it looks like whatever comes out of the sky will wait until after Thanksgiving Day itself to do so.

Before we get there, we'll have to deal with a pretty real blast of winter today and tonight.  Some of the last vestiges of that huge band of lake effect snow made it into Vermont early this morning, so many of us saw a dusting of new snow.

Meanwhile, a piece of the famous polar vortex is being tugged down briefly right on top of us today and tonight.

As a reminder, the Polar Vortex is a normal big circulation of very cold air that always sets up shop somewhere in the Arctic during the winter. It drifts around, and sometimes it gets elongated so that it extends further south, or pieces of it break off. Whoever is under the elongation or the broken piece gets to enjoy a sharp cold snap.

Today's our lucky day. 

The super cold air aloft will do three things today that most of us won't welcome. The just sort of cold air near the surface and really, really frigid air high up will increase instability. So you'll see an increase in snow showers, and some of them could be very briefly heavy.

Accumulations won't amount of much, but these could create visibility problems on the roads, along with icy patches

The second thing is the wind coming across the relatively warm water of Lake Champlain might enhance the snow showers on parts of the Vermont side of the lake at least to the summits of the Green Mountains.

This won't be anything like the six feet of snow from the recent Lake Erie snow blitz, but some spots could see an extra inch or two of snow in some areas.

The third thing the cold air aloft is giving us is fairly strong, gusty winds. The same instability that will cause those snow showers will grab high speed air from aloft and bring it to the surface.  I wouldn't be surprised if a couple places have gusts to 40 mph. Many of us will reach at least 30 mph.

This will bring wind chills down to as low as 10 degrees.

Speaking of 10 degrees, some places in Vermont will get that cold tonight and early tomorrow. Not wind chill, actual temperatures. 

The super cold air aloft will quickly depart and go back up where it belongs over Canada, so the weather will turn normal between now and Thanksgiving - highs within a few degrees of 40, lows in the 20s.

Then there's the storm this weekend.  Chances of some sort of precipitation in Vermont Friday and/or Saturday seem to be going up and up. 

We really don't know how much precipitation we'll get and whether it will be snow, rain, ice, slush or all of the above.  A lot of it will depend on whether a coastal storm gets going in this mess, how strong it will get, and whether the coastal storm, if it forms, goes a bit inland or offshore. 

Stay tuned!