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| Latest snow accumulation forecast map for our anticipated Thanksgiving storm. The sweet spot for heaviest snow looks to be the higher elevations of southern Vermont, and a good' chunk of New Hampshire. |
Basically, our long-hyped Thanksgiving storm will feature in a nice snow hit in central New England. Points further south will see rain, and points further north won't see anything heavy.
Our storm will be a day long affair, so there won't be a particular time on Thanksgiving Day where it is completely "safe" on the roads to avoid the snow.
Today: If you want to get to your Thanksgiving destination, today is the perfect day to do it, as there will be no weather issues to speak of. A few light rain and snow showers were departing early today, and we'll have some partly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures.
Roads were fine this morning, and will stay that way all day. Traffic might be heavy in spots, but oh well. Weather related flight delays in and out of the airport in Burlington shouldn't be a big problem either. But it's an extremely heavy air travel day, so problems are inevitable. Check before you leave home whether your flight is still on schedule, and if it is, get to the airport early.
Thanksgiving: Our storm is taking a perfect path to dump a substantial amount of snow on the southern half of Vermont and a good chunk of New Hampshire. With a caveat I'll get into in a sec.
Before we get any further, do note, that there is still a little disagreement among forecasts as to just how heavy the snow will get and exactly where the heaviest stuff will set up. What follows is how things look as of Wednesday morning.
The storm should be about over New York City at the start of the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade tomorrow morning, making for a soggy, rainy event. The storm will then trek northeastward to a spot a little south and east of Boston in the afternoon.
In this type of storm, the heaviest snow usually sets up 50 to 100 miles north an west of its center. Which puts southern Vermont in the crosshairs.
The winter storm watch currently covers Vermont south of a line from roughly Middlebury to St. Johnsbury. Western and central New Hampshire is also now under a winter storm watch.
Southern Vermont
It looks like southern and central Vermont ski areas from about Killington south are in the sweet spot, and they should see a good six inches of snow at least. We might even see isolated instances of a foot of snow if things work out right.
Here's the caveat I mentioned: Southern Vermont valleys are a wild card. This storm doesn't have much cold air to work with so the valleys will probably be looking at a rain/snow mix. However, sometimes, when precipitation gets heavy enough, it cools the atmosphere. If that happens, southern Vermont valleys could get a nice burst of more torrential snow. That could surprise folks with several inches of snow if that happens.
The snow should we wet and heavy and sloppy, so I do worry there could be some power outages here and there. Which is sub-optimal, as I would put it, if you're cooking a Thanksgiving feast. If you live in higher elevations in southern Vermont, try to prepare as many meals ahead of time as you can.
This area of heaviest snow should also encompass much of New Hampshire away from the seacoast.
Northern Vermont
The northern half of the state, mostly north of Route 4, looks like it will be too far north to enjoy the heaviest snow. Higher elevations should still see a couple to a few inches of snow - one to five inches, depending on elevation.
The big "loser" in this storm - if you enjoy snow - would be the Champlain Valley. It'll be too warm for much snow there. And the precipitation won't be heavy enough to cool the air like it might in southern Vermont.
So, expect a cold rain, maybe mixed with sloppy wet snowflakes from time to time. The storm might end as a period of wet snow Thanksgiving night, but it's not looking like it will amount to much.
Travel and Timing
The snow and rain will start early in the day and end later at night, so no matter how you slice it, you'll be dealing with weather on Vermont roads any time Thanksgiving Day.
Roads of course can get slick anywhere, but anywhere that's above 1,000 feet is sure to have snow-covered roads. Wet snow tends to compact in ice under car tires. Then that ice mixes with a little water to really create skating rinks on the pavement.
This storm is a quick mover, so things should be improving greatly by Friday morning. If you're one of those crazies that get up way before dawn to hi the Black Friday deals, you probably will encounter some slick spots.
But during the day, main roads should clear up nicely, especially since Friday afternoon temperatures should get a little above freezing in most spots
Up in the mountains and ski areas, any snow that does fall should mostly stick around for a long time, as forecasters expect cold weather to start this weekend and last well into December.
No matter where it snows
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