Northeast Storm Update: Some Beneficial Rains Continue, Some Areas Surprisingly Snowy.

A little light rain falls on a very low Lake Champlain 
Thursday at St. Albans, Bay, Vermont. The lake is
very low due to our long, arid autumn.

 Needed precipitation was still falling in the Northeastern U.S, including here in Vermont, early today where modest, but still beneficial amounts of rain had fallen. 

Overall, the only surprising thing about this storm so far is how much snow is falling in some areas - again, just not here in Vermont. 

Though a little bit of the white is coming to the Green Mountain State soon.  More on that in a minute.

Snow fell Thursday as far west as Chicago, where 2.9 inches snarled traffic as this was the first substantial snowfall of their winter season.

A bonafide, pretty substantial winter snowstorm is  hitting parts of northeast Pennsylvania, especially the Poconos, southwestern New York and the Catskills in that state.

The core of the storm's coldest air has been in that region, which is why they're getting so much snow. The highest elevations of the Poconos can expect up to 16 inches of snow by the time this is done. It's been snowing there since yesterday. 

The higher peaks in the Catskills might see six to 12 inches by late tonight. 

Already, Leondardsville and Coventry, New York, in high spots northeast of Binghamton have reported 11 inches of new snow. Tomkinsville, Pennsylvania in the Poconos has gotten 10 inches. And it was still snowing there early this morning.  

It's even gotten into New Jersey. You might have heard about the long lasting, big wildfire on the northwest New Jersey/southwest New York border that had been burning for two weeks could see one to four inches of snow. 

Vermont ski areas can only look longingly at that snow. But the good news is, they'll finally get at least a little.

VERMONT UPDATE

As expected, round one of this storm dumped some decent rains in southern Vermont but not a whole lot in the north. The Northeast Kingdom was especially dry. For example, through early this morning, I don't think it even rained up in Newport, and if it did, it was only a few hundreds of an inch. 

As of a couple hours before dawn, Montpelier managed to pick up 0.21 inches, and Burlington 0.3 inches. Southern Vermont had between a half and two thirds of an inch. 

The map you'll see frequently in the coming months: The
National Weather Service snowfall prediction map.
This one, issued early this morning, shows much of
Vermont getting a bit of snow this weekend, but
any real accumulations would be limited to
high elevations. Click on the map to make it
bigger and easier to see.

If forecasts for the next 48 hours come true, another half inch of rain and/or melted snow is on the way. And yes, I said snow. But don't expect a huge powder day just yet. 

Patches of light rain were still moving east to west across Vermont early this morning. Some of that light rain is finally reaching the Northeast Kingdom.

But that should taper off for everybody in the Green Mountain State this afternoon as an area of dry air gets caught up in the Northeast U.S. storminess and passes through. 

This afternoon could actually be fairly nice, with breaks of sun and temperatures sneaking up to near 50 in the warmer valleys.  We should still have a breezy east wind, though.

Round 2

We're still expected Round 2 in the precipitation overnight and early Saturday and the forecast has actually trended a bit snowier. Most of us aren't in for a winter wonderland just yet, but many of us could see a coating of snow on the ground by Saturday morning. 

As I noted yesterday, a second storm will form well offshore of New England and the curl northwestward into the Gulf of Maine.

That will throw more precipitation westward into Vermont later tonight. There's still question marks as to how much rain and/or snow we we'll see, but the early guess is very roughly a half inch of precipitation, give or take.

Colder air should move in aloft, changing the rain to snow late tonight and early Saturday in many spots. Chances are some wet snowflakes will make it all the way down into the Champlain Valley. 

A lot of places at or above perhaps 800 feet in elevation have a decent shot of seeing a slushy coating to an inch or two. Mountain summits could see a few inches. Beware if you're planning on driving through higher elevations late tonight and early Saturday. Things could get slick in spots. 

As the storminess pulls away Saturday afternoon, we transition into class late November blustery weather 

That means plenty of rain and snow showers, through the rest of the weekend, especially in the mountains and western slopes. Additional snow accumulation will be slim to none in the valleys, but the ski areas could pick up a few inches.  Cold northwest winds could gust past 30 mph both Saturday and Sunday.

A weaker storm should spread some more light rain across the region later Monday into Tuesday. 

Then, winter hits.  By Wednesday and beyond, we'll see daily high temperatures barely making it past the freezing mark in the valleys and staying subfreezing in the mountains. There's uncertain signs of some accumulating snow later in the upcoming week, but we don't know for sure whether that will happen or not. 

 But chances are better than even that if any precipitation comes into Vermont after next Wednesday and  for many days afterward, that precipitation would probably be snow.