Late Season Burst Of Tropical Storms; Southern Plains Battered By Tornadoes, Rain Steadfastly Avoids Northeast

That disorganized swirl of clouds between Cuba and
South America in this morning's satellite view
could eventually become Tropical Storm Rafael.

 UPDATE 5 PM SUNDAY:

Late this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center designated that disturbance in the western Caribbean as "Potential Tropical Cyclone #18".

The reason is, this thing has gotten a noticeable circulation since this morning, bringing it closer to tropical storm status.

It wasn't quite there yet, so the NHC is still calling it potential.

By morning, I'm pretty sure it will be officially Tropical Storm Rafael.

Forecasts are pretty bullish on this thing.  It's expected to become a hurricane.

It should be a strong tropical storm by the time it brushes past Jamaica Tuesday, and a hurricane Wednesday when the Cayman Islands and western Cuba deal with it.

From there, it's expected to move north or northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico where it faces a very uncertain future.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

The strange, busy 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is giving one last hurrah, with two systems now roaming out there. 

Meanwhile, the southern Plains keep getting battered by storms and the Northeast still seems to have a steadfast anti-rain shield.

TROPICS

Subtropical Storm Patty formed west of the Azores a couple days ago, and then moved eastward into those islands yesterday and overnight. 

It's subtropical, not Tropical Storm  Patty because it has the characteristics of both a tropical and non-tropical system.

  It's got a warm core like a tropical storm but it's formed within a larger storm system with a colder center, which is what you normally see with a non-tropical storm.

Patty's winds peaked at 65 mph yesterday and it's now weakening.  It's forecast to become a remnant low that'll hit northern Portugal and northwestern Spain toward Tuesday.  It won't cause too many problems there. Which is good, since Spain is reeling from that epic flood in the Valencia region on the opposite end of the nation. 

Patty is the ninth named tropical or tropical type storm to form in the Atlantic since September 24. That ties with 1950 as the most such storms to form in the Atlantic after that date in September. 

But wait, there's more! 

The real trouble is brewing in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. That area has been monitored for more than a week for signs of a tropical storm. The area of disturbed weather is finally getting its act together and is likely to become Tropical Storm Rafael within the next couple of days. 

If a tropical storm forms in November, this is the place they usually start.  The water temperature down there is still super warm, and it's too far south for autumn cold fronts to disrupt attempts at development. 

Early indications are Wannabe Rafael will try to move north and threaten Jamaica, Hispaniola or Cuba. It could even reach hurricane strength. 

Once Wannabe Rafael gets past Cuba, all bets are off. The early thinking is it will end up in the Gulf of Mexico, but will it eventually hit the United States and if so, where?

We don't know. Also. Wannabe Rafael could hit a hostile environment in the Gulf of Mexico. The gulf is far enough north to see those autumn cold fronts this time of year. A front like that would bring dry air and strong upper level winds, which would tend to rip a tropical storm or hurricane apart.

Then again, it's still possible for a hurricane to make landfall in the United States in November. It happened with Hurricane Kate back in 1985 and Nicole back in 2022, both of which hit Florida. So we'll see. 

Even if it's a weak system Florida does not need another hurricane or tropical storm this year after the damage and heartache Debby, Helene and Milton caused. 

Believe it or not, some forecast models depict another tropical storm or hurricane in the Caribbean around November 19-ish. However, those long range models very often create phantom forecast hurricanes that more often than not never form, so that that November 19 idea with a tremendously large grain of salt. 

SOUTHERN PLAINS

Storm chaser Nick Smith documented this severe
overnight tornado damage in Harrah, Oklahoma,
just east of Oklahoma City. 

The overall weather pattern is stuck, so storms keep hitting the southern Plains and that state of affairs seems like it will continue for awhile. A handful of tornadoes were reported in Oklahoma and Texas yesterday. 

Tornadoes around Oklahoma City damaged several homes and caused at least six injuries, television station KOCO reports. 

More severe weather and possible tornadoes are expected in the same region later today and especially tomorrow. 

Torrential storms caused flooding in what had been drought-stricken parts of Oklahoma overnight. More flooding is possible today and tomorrow. 

That rain is not heading east, so the drought-stricken Northeast will continue with its long stretch of parched ground and wildfires.