Vermont/Northeast Storm Update: Still Looking Nicely Wet But Some White Question Marks

A first guesstimate of expected rainfall from the upcoming
storm, courtesy of the National Weather Service office
in South Burlington. Most of us can expect 1 to 1.5
inches of rain (dark green and yellow) with about two
thirds of an inch in the Northeast Kingdom. This is
through early Friday morning. A little additional rain
and snow is expected over the weekend. 

 On paper, there are some aspects of our long awaited soaker storm expected late this week to be more white than wet, but that's not going to  happen this time.
 

Usually, this time of year, given the forecasted storm track and the expected bout of moderately heavy precipitation, we'd expect a sticky wet snowstorm with this thing. 

While I guarantee there will be some snow in Vermont out of this thing, it will be mostly a rainer, at least as it looks now.

As the National Weather Service office in South Burlington points out, there's just not a lot of cold air anywhere nearby for the storm to tap into to.

 Storms like this often manufacture their own cold pocket of air, which is why I said on paper this storm looks a bit like a wet snowstorm. 

But the bets are that the storm won't be able to form a strong enough cold pool of air aloft to make it snow much. At least not in the valleys

Mountain peaks in Vermont, the rest of New England and the Adirondacks could do well, and several inches could fall at elevations above 2,000 feet. But most of us will experience a cold rain through most of the storm. 

The National Weather Service's first estimate of
snow in Vermont and surrounding areas through
Friday morning is not bullish at all. Only the
highest elevations would see snow accumulations
according to this forecast. 

That said, meteorologists are still fine tuning the forecast so we can still expect some changes on how much it snows and where, and how much it rains and where. 

Overall, rain and melted snow across Vermont should amount to between 0.75 inches and 1.5 inches between late Wednesday night and Friday morning. So that's a decent slug of moisture, for sure. 

That's true for the rest of the Northeast. The drought zone could expect a lovely one to two inches of rain from this. We're talking from New Jersey through New England all the way to Maine and beyond. 

This won't be nearly enough to erase the drought in the Mid-Atlantic States and southern New England. But it will put a dent in it, and increase runoff into very low reservoirs. At least a bit. 

Even better, this storm should be enough to finally squelch those wildfires in the Northeast that have been torturing the region for more than a month. 

Back here in Vermont, the Vermont Department of Forests Parks and Recreation has extended the burn ban in southern parts of the state until next Monday. It's still dry, after all until this rain gets here. 

BEYOND THURSDAY

The storm is expected to stall, linger and generally weaken overhead through the upcoming weekend. That means more light rain and snow, Friday through Sunday. It probably won't amount to too much, though a few forecast hint at a possible burst of somewhat heavier rain or snow in the middle of that somewhere.

But don't count that. 

At least during the weekend, some snow will pile up at the ski areas. It won't be huge, but it will help the resorts open, and put everyone in the proper frame of mind for winter sports. 

Early guesses are if the snow this weekend finds its way into the valleys, it will be brief, with intervals of light rain thrown in, so there wouldn't be much accumulation. 

After the upcoming weekend, the weather pattern still looks kind of active, but it's impossible to tell how much storminess, how much rain, much much snow will arrive to help keeping chipping away at the drought. 

In fact, it could turn dry again. It's just too soon to figure anything out beyond the upcoming weekend.