Tropical Storm Sara A Catastrophe For Honduras. But Forecast Is Encouraging For Florida

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Sara already 
unleashing torrential rains on Honduras.

The mess of storminess in the western Caribbean Sea got its act together enough today to be declared Tropical Storm Sara.   

As of late this afternoon, it had top winds of only 40 mph, which certainly isn't a blockbuster in that department. 

But Tropical Storm Sara is a big blockbuster in terms of rain, and it's drenching Honduras with dangerous downpours.  Worse, that state of affairs will continue into most of the weekend. 

The storm's forward speed, already kinda glacial, is slowing down even more. Sara will crawl along the northern coast of Honduras all weekend, at a forward pace as slow or slower than an average person's walking speed. 

All the while, it will dump extreme downpours on the nation, especially in the north. Mountains just inland from the northern coast of Honduras are subject to great rushes of water rushing down the slopes, and catastrophic mudslides. 

Some places could easily see 30 inches of rain. Fatalities are inevitable, I'm afraid. 

SARA'S FORECAST

Expectations of what Sara might do over the next week have changed markedly from earlier this week. Initial forecasts had the storm staying far enough offshore to gain lots of strength from near record warm Caribbean waters. 

Fears grew that Sara would become possibly a powerful hurricane.  And maybe have enough oomph left over to menace Florida.

Florida can't completely let down its guard as of late this afternoon, but residents there can certainly breathe easier. 

Sara's center is now forecast to hug the Honduran coast as it unleashes its cataclysmic rains, so it won't be able to strengthen much. Its interaction with land will probably disrupt its circulation,

Unless Sara somehow manages to edge a little further north into open water, forecasters now doubt top winds will go much above 55 mph or so.

Toward Sunday, Sara should finally get a gentle kick in the pants and start heading northwest into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Since it probably won't be all that strong to begin with, Sara will probably die a relatively quiet death over land down there. 

Originally, Sara was supposed to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, possibly as a hurricane targeting Florida next week. Now the best guess is that what will be former Sara will cross Florida during the middle of next week as a modest rainstorm.

Things could obviously change.  Tropical systems have surprised us several times this year with unexpected strength and resilience, so Florida should remain aware of this thing, just in case.