Resilient Hurricane Rafael Continues To Surprise Forecasters, But No Further Threat To People

Hurricane Rafael stayed surprisingly strong over
the Gulf of Mexico yesterday and last night,
as you can tell by this visible satellite image of 
the storm taken at around sunset Thursday. 

 Contradicting all forecasts, Hurricane Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico continued to power up yesterday and at least part of last night, with highest sustained winds of 120 mph. 

That's the most powerful Rafael has been since it first ramped up several days ago. 

A weakening trend should have started by now, given dry air over the Gulf and what had been expected to be increasing upper level winds that would want to tear a hurricane apart  But like so many hurricanes this year, Rafael is over-performing.

The upper level winds haven't materialized quite yet, and the water Rafael is moving over is quite warm, so the storm has enough nourishment to preserve its strength for now. 

This is only the third time on record that a hurricane of at least Category 2 strength or more has been in the Gulf of Mexico during November. 

Unlike other powerful hurricanes that emerged from the Gulf of Mexico this year - Beryl, Debby, Helene and Milton - Hurricane Rafael doesn't look like it will cause a lot more damage in the United States, if any. 

Moisture streaming north from Rafael did help cause a rather destructive flood in parts of Georgia and South Carolina this week. Up to 15 inches of rain fell on central South Carolina, prompting extensive flooding, especially in and around Orangeburg. 

Those upper level winds and dry air should finally team up starting tonight to begin slowly dismantling Hurricane Rafael. It will move westward through the central Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days, then sort of start meandering offshore as it gradually fades. 

It might never come ashore anywhere again. Still, since this hurricane - and several others this year - have been so surprising, we can't take our eye off Rafael, just in case.

Most of the havoc created by Rafael occurred when it past over the western side of Cuba Wednesday. It caused the kind of flooding and building damage you'd expect from a Category 3 hurricane.

Worse, as you might have seen in the news, Cuba's power grid is unstable, to put it mildly. They had two nationwide power failures this autumn already. Rafael caused a third collapse of the nation's power grid, putting the entire island in darkness. That includes the central and eastern part of Cuba, which suffered no direct effects from Rafael.

The Washington Post tells us the power is back on in eastern Cuba, but was still out at last report in the west, including in the Capital Havana. 

Up on the U.S. Gulf Coast, the only hazards expected from Rafael so far are dangerous rip tides and possibly some minor coastal flooding.