Oddly Gorgeous November Weather Continues Vermont/Northeast Fire Risk

Another day, another nearly identical wildfire risk as Friday in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast..

Often this time of year, I post almost daily'
snowfall prediction maps. This November,
it's fire prediction maps for Vermont.
Today's fire danger is very high
(orange) in most of Vermont. 

I guess I'm focusing on the dark side of what has been a very strangely bright and sunny Vermont November. 

True, we've gotten a huge break from the usually dark and clammy Novembers we're used to. It's actually a pleasure going outdoors this month, which is not how one would usually describe a New England November.. 

But, as gorgeous as it is, the fire danger is the real news, and the thing that we have to sound the alarm on.

For the second day in a row, a red flag warning for fire danger is in effect for pretty much all of central and southern Vermont. 

That red flag warning extends through the rest of central and southern New England, through southern New York, all of New Jersey and in eastern Pennsylvania.

Fire departments, forestry officials and emergency managers will once again be busy today throughout the region. 

VERMONT SITUATION

Back here in Vermont, the Saturday risk of brush and wildfires isn't limited to the red flag warning zone. That's just where the risk is greatest. Wildfires can get going anywhere the Green Mountain State today. The ongoing dry weather/drought, sunshine, low humidity and a steady north wind are all conspiring to increase the risk. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation rate today's fire risk as very high across Vermont today, though it is "merely" high in the Champlain Valley. Which means we should be on high alert.  

The department has already dealt with some small brush fires this week. One of the worst of the week so far was down in Pownal Friday, where a trailer fire spread and became a brush fire. 

In neighboring Pittsfield, Massachusetts, a brush fire ignited a house, a clear demonstration that a forest fire doesn't always stay in the forest. Beware.

I suppose the least risky area today is the Champlain Valley, where it has been ever so slightly wetter than other parts of the state. That's not saying much, as Burlington has so far this month received about a quarter inch of rain in a time period where we should have had nearly an inch and a half.  

Winds will probably be slightly lighter in the Champlain Valley than elsewhere in the state today, which helps a smidge. But there's still quite a fire danger there, too.

Bottom line: Enjoy today's oddly mild and sunny November weather. Just do it without involving fire.

  Sunday and Beyond 

Tomorrow looks a little safer in Vermont, but that's not saying much. It'll still be dry, with low humidity. But at least winds will be light, so any fires that do start won't spread so easily. 

A weak little system might drop a few hundreds of an inch of rain - a pittance really - on northern Vermont Monday.  That's the same kind of inconsequential stuff we've kept seeing all month. And once again, like the previous episodes this November, it's doubtful it will rain at all in southern Vermont. Those sprinkles will avoid southern New England, and the Mid-Atlantic, too.

That'll keep the fire risk going.

There's still hope that a brief change in the weather pattern could give us our first fairly substantial rain (and possibly some snow) starting Thursday and continuing into the weekend. If we get that kind of storm, it won't be nearly enough to stave off the developing drought, but it would go a long way toward finally tamping down the fire risk.