Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Wildfires On Both Coasts As Some Eastern Cities Endure Longest Dry Spell On Record

Southern Californians are hoping they don't see scenes
like this today, but there's an especially high risk of
very fast, scary, big wildfires in the region today.
This is a photo of a wildfire along the 405 six years ago.
 Parts  of the West and East coasts of the United States are playing with fire today. 

And I'm not talking about the political situation. 

The danger of actual wildfires roars back to life in the two American locations today.

THE WEST

The focus out west is on heavily populated Orange, Santa Barbara Ventura and northern Los Angeles counties. 

Intense, dry Santa Ana winds are blowing today and should really howl later today, with wind gusts to at least 75 mph in some areas. The relative humidity should fall into the the arid, static electricity zone of single digits to low teens. 

The intense winds and extreme low humidity should last well into Thursday. 

The fire risk in southern Californian is considered the worst in at least four years. Today's NOAA Fire Weather Outlook has an "extremely critical fire risk" in parts of southern California, the first time in four years that dire alert has been issued for that region. 

The most intense risk includes cities like Oxnard, Santa Clarita, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley and Camarillo, with a combined population of almost 1.2 million.

A nearly as high a risk for volatile, fast-spreading firestorms has put another 10 million southern Californians under the gun today. 

 The National Weather Service office in Los Angeles has declared this a rare particularly dangerous situation. They wrote in this morning's forecast discussion:

"These are Extremely Critical and highly volatile conditions. Any new fires in the Red Flag Warning area - and especially the PDS Red Flag Warning area - will have rapid fire spread, extreme fire behavior and long range spotting."

Under these conditions, there will be little if any time for people to get out of the way if a fire starts.  People fleeing from those thousands of houses along those narrow canyon roads will quickly gum up traffic, potentially trapping people in deadly firestorms.  

The strong winds are sure to topple some trees and power lines. The fallen power lines can easily spark these dangerous wildfires. Pacific Gas and Electric is considering shutting off power to some areas to prevent fires from starting this way. 

Then there's the careless, the nut jobs and criminals who might think it's fun to start a cataclysmic fire. That's why the region is nervous. 

Strong, dry winds in northern California today have that part of the state also under alert for fast-spreading, dangerous wildfires. 

A huge area, including the San Francisco Bay area all the way to the Central Valley is under alert.   The highest risk seems to be in Napa and Sonoma counties. 

THE EAST

Though the fire situation isn't as dire or as potentially deadly in the eastern United States, it's been a much longer slog with fires in this neck of the woods. There's been various peaks and valleys in how serious the fire danger is amid an ongoing drought. 

Today represents a peak. Fires are ongoing in southern New England, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, and those could worsen today. A large wildfire is burning near the Lehigh Gap in Pennsylvania, for example. 

Record warmth is again embracing much of the East. In much of the region, strong, dry west winds would fan the flames. A red flag warning for fire danger is in effect for the three southern New England States. 

The dryness is getting ridiculous. Philadelphia is still experiencing its longest stretch without rain, with 38 consecutive days without measurable precipitation and counting. Showers are unlikely there until Sunday night. 

Atlantic City, New Jersey and Washington, DC will likely break their records for longest rainless streak today, each enduring 35 consecutive days so far without measurable rain. 

Here in Vermont, bits of rain especially in the north have helped tamp down the fire danger somewhat. Today, southern parts of the state are have a high risk of forest fires, while it's a moderate risk north. Light rain showers should come through this morning in the northern  half of the state will help, but won't be enough to prevent dry conditions and a fire danger from returning tomorrow into Sunday.  

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