Wildfires On Both Coasts As Some Eastern Cities Endure Longest Dry Spell On Record

Southern Californians are hoping they don't see scenes
like this today, but there's an especially high risk of
very fast, scary, big wildfires in the region today.
This is a photo of a wildfire along the 405 six years ago.

 Parts  of the West and East coasts of the United States are playing with fire today. 

And I'm not talking about the political situation. 

The danger of actual wildfires roars back to life in the two American locations today.

THE WEST

The focus out west is on heavily populated Orange, Santa Barbara Ventura and northern Los Angeles counties. 

Intense, dry Santa Ana winds are blowing today and should really howl later today, with wind gusts to at least 75 mph in some areas. The relative humidity should fall into the the arid, static electricity zone of single digits to low teens. 

The intense winds and extreme low humidity should last well into Thursday. 

The fire risk in southern Californian is considered the worst in at least four years. Today's NOAA Fire Weather Outlook has an "extremely critical fire risk" in parts of southern California, the first time in four years that dire alert has been issued for that region. 

The most intense risk includes cities like Oxnard, Santa Clarita, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley and Camarillo, with a combined population of almost 1.2 million.

A nearly as high a risk for volatile, fast-spreading firestorms has put another 10 million southern Californians under the gun today. 

 The National Weather Service office in Los Angeles has declared this a rare particularly dangerous situation. They wrote in this morning's forecast discussion:

"These are Extremely Critical and highly volatile conditions. Any new fires in the Red Flag Warning area - and especially the PDS Red Flag Warning area - will have rapid fire spread, extreme fire behavior and long range spotting."

Under these conditions, there will be little if any time for people to get out of the way if a fire starts.  People fleeing from those thousands of houses along those narrow canyon roads will quickly gum up traffic, potentially trapping people in deadly firestorms.  

The strong winds are sure to topple some trees and power lines. The fallen power lines can easily spark these dangerous wildfires. Pacific Gas and Electric is considering shutting off power to some areas to prevent fires from starting this way. 

Then there's the careless, the nut jobs and criminals who might think it's fun to start a cataclysmic fire. That's why the region is nervous. 

Strong, dry winds in northern California today have that part of the state also under alert for fast-spreading, dangerous wildfires. 

A huge area, including the San Francisco Bay area all the way to the Central Valley is under alert.   The highest risk seems to be in Napa and Sonoma counties. 

THE EAST

Though the fire situation isn't as dire or as potentially deadly in the eastern United States, it's been a much longer slog with fires in this neck of the woods. There's been various peaks and valleys in how serious the fire danger is amid an ongoing drought. 

Today represents a peak. Fires are ongoing in southern New England, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, and those could worsen today. A large wildfire is burning near the Lehigh Gap in Pennsylvania, for example. 

Record warmth is again embracing much of the East. In much of the region, strong, dry west winds would fan the flames. A red flag warning for fire danger is in effect for the three southern New England States. 

The dryness is getting ridiculous. Philadelphia is still experiencing its longest stretch without rain, with 38 consecutive days without measurable precipitation and counting. Showers are unlikely there until Sunday night. 

Atlantic City, New Jersey and Washington, DC will likely break their records for longest rainless streak today, each enduring 35 consecutive days so far without measurable rain. 

Here in Vermont, bits of rain especially in the north have helped tamp down the fire danger somewhat. Today, southern parts of the state are have a high risk of forest fires, while it's a moderate risk north. Light rain showers should come through this morning in the northern  half of the state will help, but won't be enough to prevent dry conditions and a fire danger from returning tomorrow into Sunday.  

Did Reforestation Forestall Climate Change In Eastern U.S ?

I boat sets sail on Lake Champlain on September 4, 2023, when 
it was 90 degrees. The trees in the foreground probably
made it feel a bit cooler.

They say trees are great for the environment.

One large scale example of the benefit from trees might have come over the past five decades or so in the eastern United States.  

First, the mystery, as reported in The Guardian. 

"While the U.S., like the rest of the world, has heated up since industrial times due to the burning of fossil fuels, scientists have long been puzzled by a so-called 'warming hole; over parts of the U.S. Southeast, where temperatures have flatlined, or even cooled, despite the unmistakable broader warming trend."

Most of the East was deforested for farms and such with European settlement. The lack of forests continued well into the 19th century. But starting in the 1920s and accelerating after World War II,   forests re-grew.  

The Guardian continues:

"'The reforestation has been remarkable and we have show this has translated into the surrounding air temperature,' said Mallory Barnes, an environmental scientist at Indiana University who led the research. The 'warming hole' has been a real mystery and while this doesn't explain all of it, this research shows there is a really important link to the trees coming back."

Tree blunt heat because water that was drawn up by red roots are released into the air via leaves as vapor. That water vapor cools the surrounding air a little bit. 

The renewed forests cooled the eastern U.S. by around two or three degrees each year. The cooling effect is most noticeable in the summer, as the trees are estimated to have cooled the air by roughly four to eight degrees Fahrenheit. 

The Guardian notes that trees probably weren't the only things keeping the East a little on the cool side. Pollution before the Clean Air Act purified the atmosphere in the late 20th century probably blocked sun, keeping temperatures from rising too much. 

It's possible agricultural irrigation might have had a small cooling effect, too. 

 POSSIBLE VERMONT EFFECTS?

In the age of climate change, Vermont has warmed more than places further south along the Appalachian chain and southeastern United States.

Still,  we might have partly gone through that cooling phase due to reforestation, but just a little earlier than the Southeast. 

After clearing the state for lumber and farms, only around 20 percent of Vermont remained forested by the late 1880s. Most of that was at high, rather inaccessible elevations.

During the 1990s, the trend reversed, but Vermont didn't become fully reforested until the 1960s or so. Since then, around 75 to 80 percent of Vermont was forested.

Remember how I said especially in the Southeast, the cooling effect of forests was most noticeable in the summer?

In Burlington climate records, I noticed that there was a relative peak during the 1930s and 1940s in the number of days in the summer that reached 90 degrees or more.  As more of the state became forested, the number of 90 degree days, as measured in Burlington, declined through the 1950, 1960s and 1970s.

At Burlington, there were six consecutive years from 1944-49 that each had eight or more days of 90 degree temperatures. Such a long streak of hot summer weather didn't happen again until 2015 through 2023, with each of those summers having eight or more 90 degree days. Climate change was very likely one major contributor to these very recent hot spells. 

The hot weather of the 1940s probably wasn't entirely due to a lack of forest. Drought can allow the air to heat more efficiently than wet ground can.  As noted earlier in this post, air pollution in the 1950s into the 1970s might have dimmed the sun enough to keep 90 degree weather at bay. There might have been just a persistent weather pattern in the 1940s that created hot days.

But there's no denying trees are probably helping us cool off at least a little on hot summer days.  In Vermont, and pretty much everywhere else, trees can help mitigate the effects of a warming planet, especially in the summer. 

One of the reasons the city of Burlington, and so many other cities across the United States plant trees is for that cooling effect in the summer.  

It's probably weird that we're talking about heat waves on a February day that brought morning temperatures to near zero.  But it will be summer soon enough. If you want to stay cool, thank a tree near you. 

Storm About To Slam Wide Area of Eastern U.S.,Including Vermont

This morning's iteration of the National Weather Service's
snow prediction map. Still a general 7-14 inches for most
of us. Wind and wet snow could lead to power outages.

 Here we go again with one of the storms that affect lots of people as it covers a lot of ground over the eastern United States.  

Winter storm warnings extend from Vermont all the way down to the northeastern corner of Mississippi.  Warnings like that this time of year are pretty rare that far south. Other winter alerts stretch all the way from Arizona to Maine. 

The Southeast is bracing for severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes today and tonight. It also looks like crop losses might be heavy in the Deep South as a hard freeze is expected to follow the storm Saturday and Sunday mornings in the Mississippi and Alabama and in the Southeast Sunday morning.

This, in an area where peach and other fruit trees are already blooming.

In the Northeast, coastal areas will see a lot of rain and wind, then a sudden freeze, while interior sections see the snow. Which leads us to what we expect here in Vermont.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Overall, the forecast hasn't changed much since last evening.  The broad details are that most of Vermont should see a pretty good slug of snow during the day Saturday, followed by a sharp temperature drop and strong winds Saturday night, and a blustery, cold Sunday with blowing snow. 

Power outages and unsafe roads will be the main problem with this storm. On the bright side, this does not look like quite as bad a storm as it did a little over 24 hours ago. Impactful, yes. Historic? Probably not. 

On to the details.

Spring of sorts continues today, but it won't be as gorgeous as Thursday was with that warm springlike sunshine. Spring is about to take a hiatus for just a few days. We'll be under the clouds today, so we'll be a little cooler than Thursday. But 40 degrees isn't so bad for this time of year. 

Some snow will break out  early Saturday, especially in western Vermont, but that precipitation won't be very heavy. It could also be mixed with rain, or even just a cold rain in the deeper valleys to start. 

The main show will come from late morning into the evening.  Snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour are still expected, which is fairly intense. 

The initial snow will be wet and heavy, but turn more powdery as temperatures start dropping Saturday afternoon and evening. 

Signs of spring life in my St. Albans, Vermont perennial
gardens as the last of the snow melted away Thursday.
Spring is about to be put on hold for a few days with
an oncoming winter storm and quick shot of winter-
like air. It will warm up again next week. 

I think in northwestern Vermont, the snow will turn powdery early enough into the storm to prevent a lot of widespread power issues. 

But temperatures will probably stay near 32 degrees in the southeastern half of Vermont for a large portion of the storm, which would lead to snow loading on trees and power lines. Which would be especially dangerous when the wind picks up.

The southeastern corner of Vermont will get less snow than the rest of the state because the first part of the storm will feature rain or a rain/snow mix. That'll cut down on snow totals. 

The snow will dwindle down Saturday night, lasting longest along the western slopes of the Green Mountains and in the Northeast Kingdom.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is still saying total accumulations will range 7 to 14 inches for most of us, with a little less than that in southeastern Vermont.  Mountain areas will be closer to the 14 inches, most valleys will see 7 to 10 inches.  

Winds will really crank out of the north overnight Saturday with many places gusting to or over 40 mph. In places that get more of that wet, sloppy snow especially, power outages will continue under than slush and wind load. Charge your devices tomorrow morning, especially if you live in southern Vermont.

Even northern Vermont could experience a few power outages, just because the wind will be so strong.  Blowing snow will be a huge problem overnight Saturday and into Sunday morning. 

After the relative warmth we've had recently, it will turn shockingly cold. Lows by early Sunday morning will be at or a little under 10 degrees, which is pretty chilly for mid-March. Wind chills will be below zero.

Sunday, the first day of daylight savings time, will be wintry.  Winds will continue to howl, but slowly diminish during the day. The sun will start to make an appearance, too, but temperatures will stay in the cold 20s.

It is March, so spring will start to re-assert itself a bit on Monday and continue through the week. The snow will begin to thaw away, slowly at first, and maybe more rapidly toward Thursday as temperatures bounce back to possibly the 50s. 

If forecasts holds, the snow that piles up Saturday will be mostly gone in the valleys within a week or so.