Vermont Week Ahead: More Big, Weird Temperature Swings, Lack Of Rain Continues.

Late autumn light on a bright and chilly late afternoon
Sunday in St. Albans, Vermont. Another big warm
 up is on the way, though. 

As we get set for the week in  Vermont, which I hear also includes some sort of election, the weather is going to be all over the place. 

Again.

It's already been weird. We had those hottest for so late in the season record highs on Halloween. On November 1, more record highs before dawn, and the afternoon turned out chilly. 

Here in St. Albans on Saturday afternoon, just 48 hours after it was in the upper 70s, it snowed briefly. 

In Burlington, thew low temperature Sunday morning was 29 degrees, the coldest temperature so far this autumn.

The only remarkable thing about that is how mild that coldest so far reading is. Especially if you consider the normal low is in the mid 30s and record lows in Burlington this time of year are in the teens. 

This week, the temperature roller coaster continues, with precious little rain as our long dry spell continues. 

Today

A warm front is approaching, so clouds will be increasing. 

Here's a first in the season alert:  There could be a patch or two of light freezing rain or sleet in a couple spots early this morning. Mostly in northern New York, but there could be isolated instances in northern Vermont.

It won't last long or be widespread.  But it's a here we go again moment, huh?

This afternoon won't be much warmer than Sunday ahead of this front, with highs reaching the 40s. Maybe 50 in the warm spots. Gusty south winds this afternoon could increase the fire danger, especially in southern Vermont where absolutely no precipitation is forecast. The forest fire danger in Vermont is listed as very high today, except "just" high up in the Northeast Kingdom, where they might get those sprinkles. 

Tonight, the temperature won't fall, and might even rise a bit overnight. 

A few showers might break out Monday night with the warm front, but they won't amount to much if they happen at all. Southern Vermont will again probably stay dry, the north might get vaguely damp. 

Tuesday

Election day and night will be weird for a whole bunch of reasons, as you can imagine. But that will include Vermont weather. 

 Temperatures will soar once again to frankly weird levels. Not like Halloween, but still. By afternoon, many of us will be in the 60s again. Maybe near 70 in a few spots if the sun shines a fair amount. 

Then it gets weirder Tuesday night. Many places, especially in western Vermont, will have another oddly balmy, summer-like night. Temperatures might  fail to drop below 60 degrees in some towns. Probably Burlington will be one of them. 

Wednesday

You'd think that the extreme warmth of Tuesday night would set us up for insanely warm temperatures Wednesday. It will be toasty, with some us making it to the low 70s. That is indeed pretty insane for November 6. 

But it will also be falling on the anniversary of one of increasingly bizarro warm spells in the age of climate change. On November 6, 2022, we had our warmest November day on record, making it to 76 degrees in Burlington. The low temperature that day was a July-like 62 degrees.

We probably won't be able to compete with that. Besides, a cold front will be coming through, probably in the afternoon, to keep temperatures ever so slightly in check. Depending on the timing of this front, temperatures might start falling back in the afternoon.

Once again, this cold front looks like it won't have much rain along it. This despite some strangely humid air for this time of year. The atmospheric dynamics aren't there. We just can't catch a break. There could be a tenth of an inch of rain north, and once again, probably nothing south.

For comparison, when the November 2022, heat wave began to break late on the sixth that year, downpours deposited a very nice 0.72 inches of rain on the Champlain Valley. Parts of Franklin and northern Chittenden County got two inches of rain in that episode. Not this year, I'm afraid.

Thursday and Beyond

Temperatures once again head downhill for the end of the week, but signs point to a cool down not a steep as the one we had this weekend. Highs would be in the upper 40s and 50s, which is near to a little bit above normal for this time of year. 

The air by the end of the week will be dry. The ground will be dry. The wind will be dry. And stiff at times. So, we'll have to worry about forest and brush fires again. 

The Long Haul

Once we get beyond five days, forecasts get less accurate. But NOAA's extended forecast that runs to November 17 continues to lean heavily toward warmer than normal temperatures through the middle of the month. 

Maybe not every day will be warm, but the odds are strongly tilted toward most days being, well, not winter..

Those extended forecasts lean slightly toward somewhat wetter weather by the middle of the month, but forecasters are hedging their bets on that one.