Vermont/Northeast Winter Storm Rumors For Thanksgiving Weekend Are True. With Asterisks

Breaks of sun visible this morning west of St. Albans,
Vermont this morning, but those darker clouds
overhead move east and develop into snow showers
by the time they hit the western slopes of the 
Green Mountains. No biggie, but there's a possible
larger winter storm looming end of week.

 Even as many other parts of the nation have received their first substantial snows of the season, most of Vermont and the rest of northern New England is still waiting.  

If current forecasts hold true, there's a decent chance that wait might be over starting later on Thanksgiving Day and continuing into next weekend.

There's a chance we could see a fairly substantial snowstorm in Vermont and other parts of northern New York and New England at the end of the upcoming week.

It's by no means a slam dunk. It's a good four to five days away so things could radically change. Yes, an expected storm could take a "perfect path" across eastern New England and give Vermont several inches of snow.

But this thing could still go too far south to give us much. Or it could come too far north, or not have enough cold air to work with, and we end up with an icy, rainy, schmutz.

More on that storm in a bit, but first, we have to go through some winter appetizer systems before we get to the potential main event at the end of the week.

TODAY

Today could be interesting in parts of Vermont, but not in an extreme way. 

That storm that gave the wet, sometimes snowy and weird weather to the Northeast the past couple of days is now off in the Canadian Maritimes.

We have that classic post-storm northwest flow of air.  Those of us in the northern Champlain Valley can see patches of blue this morning off to the northwest, but the Green Mountains look socked in by clouds.

Winds coming down the slopes of the Adirondacks suppress clouds, causing that narrow band of clearing on the west shore of Lake Champlain. But the air is forced to rise as it heads into the Green Mountains. That rising air makes moisture condense into snow showers. 

Some of those snow showers could back as far west as Route 7 today, so those areas might see what has been a rare sight so far this year - snowflakes. 

Those flakes won't accumulate in the valleys, but they will up in the ,mountains. Maybe just one to three inches of new snow, with more than six on some of the northern Green Mountain summits. So at least some places in Vermont will end up finally looking like winter today. 

Whatever happens, it will feel blustery, and cold today. So bundle up like it is winter. Because it kinda is. 

EARLY WEEK

After a quiet Monday, a modest storm comes through Monday night and Tuesday. This one looks warm enough to bring more rain. However - and it's a big however - this could start as freezing rain in central and eastern Vermont. 

It won't be a lot, but when it comes to freezing rain, a little dab will do ya. I'd start planning on possible slick roads for the Tuesday morning commute. Even a brief shower of freezing rain is enough to mess up the roads. 

Any freezing rain will thaw out during the day. But after the storm goes by, colder air will change things to snow showers Tuesday night, so there might be slick spots Wednesday morning, too.

THE MAIN EVENT

For those of you traveling on Thanksgiving, the morning should be fine. It's just the evening, and Black Friday travel days that might be the issue. 

Again, we're not sure of the path of this potential storm  yet. This morning's American computer model mostly takes it too far south of us to cause much hassle. 

The European computer model in general creates a stronger storm that moves up from the Mid-Atlantic States and right through eastern New England Friday. That puts us in the cross hairs for either a snowfall in Vermont or even a mix of crap.

Stay tuned for updates on this. Nobody is sure who will win this forecasting battle: The American or European models. It's a tossup.

If any snow does fall out of this, it will stick around for awhile as the weather pattern is shifting to a cold, wintry one that keeps any real thaws away from us heading well into December.