That Was A Sudden Introduction To Autumn! But The Building Vermont Drought Continues

This view of the Green Mountains  in Shrewsbury, Vermont
at around 12:30 p.m.Sunday shows a slightly hazy
and very warm Sunday under way...... 

Boy, what an abrupt change in the weather across Vermont Sunday! 

As expected, that cold front really meant business. Once it came through your neck of the woods, you went from summer heat to autumn chill in a snap. 

If you didn't know the cold front was coming, it seemed Burlington was headed for another 90 degree day. It was up to 85 degrees by 11 a.m. Then things went the other way. It was down to 60 degrees by 4 p.m., the time of day when the temperature usually peaks. 

Similar temperature crashes occurred across pretty much all of Vermont, though they came late in the day in southern parts of the state. Rutland went from 85 degrees at 2 p.m to 67 at 5 p.m. and 59 at 7 p.m. 

A temperature drop that big and that quick is unusual with any cold front.  You get something like this in the winter sometimes, but in the summer it's almost unheard of. It's been a really weird temperature month.

First, a heat wave with desert dry air instead of the usual humidity and now this weird temperature drop.   

Then, to make things just a little extra bizarre, in the evening,  it started to warm up ever so slightly again in northern Vermont, as the paltry rain with the front departed and clouds thinned a little.  

Rainfall was paltry, especially considering how strong the cold front was. A very few places got lucky with isolated downpours ahead of the front, like in Shrewsbury, Vermont, where I spend Sunday. 

Rutland, just a little northwest of Shrewsbury, got just 0.02 inches of rain. Burlington reported a scant 0.08 inches and Montpelier a barely noticeable 0.05 inches 

That was not the soaker we needed, that's for sure. 

OUTLOOK

.....By 5 p.m, it was chilly and overcast in Shrewsbury
and low clouds were beginning to obscure the mountains.
Temperatures by then had fallen into the low 60s

Unfortunately, there's not much rain in the forecast. Today will be sunny and cool, so that won't help with our building drought.  

Temperatures this afternoon will only make it to within a few degrees either side of 70, much cooler than average for this time of year.  

Clouds will increase during the day Tuesday, but no rain. Highs should make it into the 70s.  

A weak system does look like it wants to come through on Wednesday with some light rain. At this point, this one looks pretty lame, too.

 If current forecasts hold -  and that's a big if -  there could be as much as a third of an inch of rain near the Canadian border. That would taper down to just a trace or a few hundreds of an inch in southern Vermont. 

There's a chance Wednesday's rain might stay further north, which would leave Vermont with very little rain. Let's hope not!

Then it back to dry weather and a warming trend at the end of the week. 

Another cold front might bring a little more rain  next weekend.  But from this distant view, early indications are the rainfall then might also not amount to all that much. 

Conspiracy Whackos Strike Again: Anti-Government Groups Says Doppler Radar Is "Weather Weapon"

A Doppler radar installation, probably monitoring that
severe thunderstorm in the background. These radars
are crucial for monitoring severe weather, but
a conspiracy group wants to attack and destroy
Doppler radar because they are somehow
a "weather weapon."

Apparently, the wackos are going after Doppler radar now

As if NOAA and the National Weather Service didn't have enough problems with Trump cutbacks on staff and services that are harming both forecast accuracy and research, there's terrorists now, too. 

An anti-government group called Veterans on Patrol have somehow decided that Doppler radar is now somehow a "weather weapon."

Doppler radar installations are those big white balls on top of towers - there's one in Colchester, Vermont for reference - that track precipitation, winds and other features in the atmosphere. 

Doppler radar is fantastic for determining the type of precipitation that's falling in various locations. Also the intensity, which is super handy if you're worried about flooding. It also detects wind patterns, including dangerous ones that might, for example, indicate a tornado is about to form. 

The group has thus far not come up with an explanation as to how Doppler radar is a "weather weapon."  Veterans on Patrol said the Doppler sites are controlled by the military and are somehow "poisoning our skies."

Responding to media reports on the threats, Veterans on Patrol founder Michael "Lewis Arthur" Meyer said the group is moving forward with plans to target the radars

Per the Washington Post:

"'We intend to take as many NexRads offline as possible once our attack simulations have prepared us,' Meyer wrote. He said he had 'full authority' to do so. Meet said the 'attack simulations" would go until June but potentially i not August, without giving details about the operation."

Though there has been no attacks yet, and not much in the way of suspicious activity at the Doppler radar sites, officials are taking no chances.

"Out of a abundance of caution, we are asking all regions to notify their field offices and radar technicians to maintain increased vigilance when at or near radar sites," NOAA's central office warned leadership in a May 12 memo. 

National Weather Service staff were told to notify law enforcement of any suspicious or weird behavior.

The threats from Veterans on Patrol come at an already bad time for NOAA and the National Weather Service, as the agency has been battered by Trump administration layoffs, buyouts and steep cutbacks that are crippling its mission. 

Per CNN:

"'Nobody likes federal employees being demeaned by the administration, but when it escalates to violence or threats of it, it start to become really demoralizing,' said one NWS employee who requested anonymity because they are not authorized to speak to the press."

This would be an especially bad time for Doppler weather radars to fail, either through mechanical failure or sabotage. As CNN reports, the agency has more than 90 vacancies for the technicians who normally repair them. 

A Doppler radar that is offline can make meteorologists miss threatening weather like a developing tornado or flash flood. 

Veterans on Patrol is an extremist conspiracy theory group but up until now don't have a big reputation for violence. Like many other similar groups, this one offers itself up as a safe haven for people who are going through a rough time.

A classic example came in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina last fall. 

Veterans on Patrol serve up a spot in the town of Lake Lure, where they collected and distributed donated supplies, such as bottled water, food and clothing.

So far, so good. 

Then Veterans on Patrol began telling storm victims there the government somehow steered Helene into western North Carolina so they could take land and harvest minerals.  They also falsely said the Federal Emergency Management Agency was giving most aid to undocumented immigrants, terrorists and criminals. 

Enough people in Lake Lure saw through this scam to force Veterans on Patrol to leave.

Somehow, I think there's some other public relations move by this group to target Doppler radar.

Maybe they're stooges.  The Trump administration has been dismantling NOAA through repeated staff and resource cutbacks. 

The goal might be to degrade NOAA and the National Weather Service enough to "prove" that government agencies are inept, so weather forecasting should go to a private company, thereby enriching a couple billionaires somewhere. 

I obviously don't think Trump and Veterans for Patrol are working together.  Although come to think of it they are a match made in heaven.

After all, corrupt administrations worldwide rely on useful idiots - people and groups that have swallowed anti-government propaganda no matter how off the wall.

A subset of Trumpers are willing to believe almost anything. Including the idea that Doppler radars are somehow "weather weapons."

The whack jobs feed the energy of the Trump True Believers, which enables the Trumpsters to pretend they have a groundswell of support behind them.  

Trump and his minions don't need Veterans for Patrol, but I'm sure they consider them helpful.

To bad the rest of us are both appalled by this Doppler conspiracy and laughing our butts off at the purveyors of this nonsense.

Vermont Week Ahead: More Big, Weird Temperature Swings, Lack Of Rain Continues.

Late autumn light on a bright and chilly late afternoon
Sunday in St. Albans, Vermont. Another big warm
 up is on the way, though. 

As we get set for the week in  Vermont, which I hear also includes some sort of election, the weather is going to be all over the place. 

Again.

It's already been weird. We had those hottest for so late in the season record highs on Halloween. On November 1, more record highs before dawn, and the afternoon turned out chilly. 

Here in St. Albans on Saturday afternoon, just 48 hours after it was in the upper 70s, it snowed briefly. 

In Burlington, thew low temperature Sunday morning was 29 degrees, the coldest temperature so far this autumn.

The only remarkable thing about that is how mild that coldest so far reading is. Especially if you consider the normal low is in the mid 30s and record lows in Burlington this time of year are in the teens. 

This week, the temperature roller coaster continues, with precious little rain as our long dry spell continues. 

Today

A warm front is approaching, so clouds will be increasing. 

Here's a first in the season alert:  There could be a patch or two of light freezing rain or sleet in a couple spots early this morning. Mostly in northern New York, but there could be isolated instances in northern Vermont.

It won't last long or be widespread.  But it's a here we go again moment, huh?

This afternoon won't be much warmer than Sunday ahead of this front, with highs reaching the 40s. Maybe 50 in the warm spots. Gusty south winds this afternoon could increase the fire danger, especially in southern Vermont where absolutely no precipitation is forecast. The forest fire danger in Vermont is listed as very high today, except "just" high up in the Northeast Kingdom, where they might get those sprinkles. 

Tonight, the temperature won't fall, and might even rise a bit overnight. 

A few showers might break out Monday night with the warm front, but they won't amount to much if they happen at all. Southern Vermont will again probably stay dry, the north might get vaguely damp. 

Tuesday

Election day and night will be weird for a whole bunch of reasons, as you can imagine. But that will include Vermont weather. 

 Temperatures will soar once again to frankly weird levels. Not like Halloween, but still. By afternoon, many of us will be in the 60s again. Maybe near 70 in a few spots if the sun shines a fair amount. 

Then it gets weirder Tuesday night. Many places, especially in western Vermont, will have another oddly balmy, summer-like night. Temperatures might  fail to drop below 60 degrees in some towns. Probably Burlington will be one of them. 

Wednesday

You'd think that the extreme warmth of Tuesday night would set us up for insanely warm temperatures Wednesday. It will be toasty, with some us making it to the low 70s. That is indeed pretty insane for November 6. 

But it will also be falling on the anniversary of one of increasingly bizarro warm spells in the age of climate change. On November 6, 2022, we had our warmest November day on record, making it to 76 degrees in Burlington. The low temperature that day was a July-like 62 degrees.

We probably won't be able to compete with that. Besides, a cold front will be coming through, probably in the afternoon, to keep temperatures ever so slightly in check. Depending on the timing of this front, temperatures might start falling back in the afternoon.

Once again, this cold front looks like it won't have much rain along it. This despite some strangely humid air for this time of year. The atmospheric dynamics aren't there. We just can't catch a break. There could be a tenth of an inch of rain north, and once again, probably nothing south.

For comparison, when the November 2022, heat wave began to break late on the sixth that year, downpours deposited a very nice 0.72 inches of rain on the Champlain Valley. Parts of Franklin and northern Chittenden County got two inches of rain in that episode. Not this year, I'm afraid.

Thursday and Beyond

Temperatures once again head downhill for the end of the week, but signs point to a cool down not a steep as the one we had this weekend. Highs would be in the upper 40s and 50s, which is near to a little bit above normal for this time of year. 

The air by the end of the week will be dry. The ground will be dry. The wind will be dry. And stiff at times. So, we'll have to worry about forest and brush fires again. 

The Long Haul

Once we get beyond five days, forecasts get less accurate. But NOAA's extended forecast that runs to November 17 continues to lean heavily toward warmer than normal temperatures through the middle of the month. 

Maybe not every day will be warm, but the odds are strongly tilted toward most days being, well, not winter..

Those extended forecasts lean slightly toward somewhat wetter weather by the middle of the month, but forecasters are hedging their bets on that one. 

"Year Without A Winter": Meteorological Winter Warmest on Record In Vermont, February Super Toasty

The just ending "Year Without A Winter" in Vermont
featured record warm temperatures, and a serious lack
of snow and lake ice. This rather springlike photo
was take January 4 at St. Albans Bay, Vermont. 

Meteorological winter in Vermont ended Thursday on an uncharacteristic note: It was kinda cold.

Not so for the winter as a whole. Meteorological winter - the period between December 1 and February 29 - was easily the warmest on record in Vermont. At least as measured in Burlington. 

Results in other Vermont towns may vary, but it was definitely among the very warmest, if not the warmest everywhere in the Green Mountain State. 

By any measure, it was toasty. The average temperature for the three months in Burlington was 30.7 degrees or 0.6  degrees above the previous record of 30.1 degrees in 2015-16.

The cloudy nature of most of the winter made the average overnight lows insanely warm.  Cloudy skies tend to keep nights warmer in general. While average high temperatures for this winter were only second warmest on record, overnight lows were by far the warmest. 

The average minimum temperature for the winter was 24.3 or 1.8 degrees above the previous record of 22.5 degrees in 2017-17.  That's a wide margin to break a record when you're including so many days. 

The warm winter means that each of the top four warmest winters in Burlington have happened since 2015-16.  Number 5 was recent, too as it was in 2001-02.  I can really see a climate trend there. 

Here are some other stats that really show how insane this "Year Without A Winter"   

--- This was only the second winter that failed to go below 0, and it had the warmest minimum, which was 3 degrees on January 22

--- Only 29 out of 91 days in Burlington failed to get above freezing.

---Just 19 days were cooler than average. Note that this is the "new" climate-change influenced average that is warmer than the way winters used to be. 

-- Only three days had six or more inches of snow on the ground. Thirty-four days had absolutely no snow on the ground. 

It's not just Burlington. It appears dozens of cities in the Northern Plains, Great Lakes region, parts of the Northeast and a swath of southern Canada will have also had their warmest winters on record. 

FEBRUARY

The month of February was certainly an enthusiastic part of the record warm winter of 2022-23.  The mean temperature in Burlington for the month was 30.2 degrees, which was 7.3 degrees warmer than the "new" average and third warmest February on record at Burlington. 

As part of all that re-writing of weather records by recent warm winters and springs, four days saw record highs in Burlington. The high on February 27 was the third warmest day on record for anytime in February.

Most other reporting stations in Vermont, including Rutland, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, were all at least 7 degrees warmer than average for February. 

With just 0.66 inches of precipitation, it was also the eighth driest February on record.  Other Vermont weather stations were even more arid. Montpelier managed just 0.36 inches of precipitation. St. Johnsbury had 0.37 inches.  Pretty much everybody in Vermont had less than an inch of precipitation during February. 

At least February was somewhat sunnier than the near-constant overcast, fog and gloom of December and January. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Of course, we can't determine ahead of time how March and spring as a whole will play out. We do know March is coming in like a lamb.  The first week of the month will be far warmer than average, and not stormy at all. There might be some light precipitation here and there, but nothing substantial until at least next weekend.

Looking much further ahead to next winter, I almost guarantee we won't see a repeat.  It's hard to get that warm in the winter, even with climate change. I don't know whether next winter will be on the cold or mild side, but it won't be as warm as this one was. 

We'll probably even go below zero. Imagine that. 

 .