 |
| A surprise, very local shower formed directly overhead in St. Albans, Vermont before 8 a.m. today, certainly delighting me amid our drought conditions. Many parts of Vermont will see rain today, but that won't really solve our drought problems. |
It'll remain hot in Vermont today, but it will turn humid. And, for most of us, it's going to rain! There have already been a few scattered surprise showers early today in northwest Vermont.
More on that in a bit, but we still have to marvel at what happened the past three days, especially yesterday.
RECORD HIGHS
The high temperature in Burlington was 98 degrees shattering the old record of 93 set in 2002.
Other record highs in Vermont were 91 in Montpelier, beating the old record of 89 in 2002. Sutton, Vermont, in a normally cold Northeast Kingdom spot, got up to 96, smashing the old record high for the date of 87. Newport had a record high of 92, Rutland had a record 91.
The most impressive records were set in Canada. Prince Edward Island set a new all-time record hot temperature for the province of 100.5 degrees. Newfoundland tied its all time record high of 98 degrees. Several other towns in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and far eastern Quebec also set all time record highs.
Some other Vermont heat stats to note:
Tuesday was the 16th day this year in Burlington that hit 90 degrees or more. It's only the tenth year out of the past 130 or so that have had that many.
This week was also only the eighth time in at least 130 years Burlington had three consecutive days that were 95 degrees or hotter. It was also only the eighth time in that time period in which we had highs of 95 degrees or more on five occasions or more in a single summer.
RARE DRY HEAT EXPLAINED
Here in Vermont I've never seen anything come close to what we experienced in the past three days. I was weird! Sure, we've had a few hotter days than we did Tuesday. It was hotter than yesterday less than two months ago, on June 23-24 for instance .
But the combination of heat and remarkably low humidity was the kicker, especially yesterday. Relative humidities in the teens are unheard of in a New England summer heat wave.
I still can't believe how fast everything dried out. Official stats should come out Thursday, but I'd say we're in a flash drought. Even with rain in the forecast today, we are in danger of empty wells, damaged crops and forest fires in Vermont, the rest of northern New England and southeast Canada until we see some sustained, soaking rains. Gawd knows when that will happen.
This weeks' heat wave was an odd, arid exception.
In general, in our climate-changed world, heat waves around here have actually been generally getting more humid with time.
A warmer global atmosphere can hold more moisture. Most heat waves in New England develop as the offshore summertime Bermuda High transports oppressive air from tropical waters to our neck of the woods.
That's why that record heat wave in June was so awful, with those heat indexes as high as 115 degrees. The air came straight from the Caribbean, so it was as humid as it can get. That June air was made even more humid because ocean waters around the Caribbean were warmer than average, again in part due to climate change.
This time, the air didn't really come from the Gulf of Mexico or the tropical Atlantic.
Instead, the hot August sun went to work on clear skies under unusually strong high pressure that originated in the sunny, dry southern Canadian plains. Once this high pressure made it to eastern Canada and New England, it still didn't have any real connection to moist air from the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico.
Instead, the air flow came from the dry interior of North America.
One thing that made the past few days of heat ever so slightly more tolerable were the nights. Yes, they were stuffy, especially in warmer valleys like near Lake Champlain.
But air that's dry doesn't retain nighttime heat like humid air does. Despite the daytime heat, early morning lows have been in the mid 50s to low 60s in most of Vermont, with 60s to around 70 in the Champlain Valley. That's better than the 70s to near 80 for lows we experienced during that hot spell in June.
WELCOME RAIN TODAY?
 |
| Radar images from shortly before 8 a.m. this morning showed almost nothing, but look at that orange patch over St. Albans. That little downpour formed out of seemingly nothing. |
We sure as hell need the rain. According to WPTZ Chief Meteorologist Tyler Jankowski, this is the first time on record in Burlington that absolutely no rain fell during the first 12 days of August. As mentioned, those records go back to 1884, so that's an impressive record.
As of this writing, around 8:30 a.m most places around Vermont haven't seen any rain yet today. For many of us, though, it's coming.
A more impressive area of showers and storms was approaching northwest New York, at that hour, and those should arrive in western Vermont by early afternoon. With the heating of the day, they should turn into batches of hit and miss showers and storms.
Ahead of this batch of storms, that super dry air we've had is being replaced by quite humid stuff. That will enable some of the storms to dump some pretty heavy rains. On a few spots.
This is by no means a drought buster. A few places could get more than an inch of rain in a short period of time. But rain that comes down that hard and that fast tends to run off, rather than soaking nicely into the ground.
Worse, some places might not see any rain at all. This is a typical summertime hit and miss situation, so there's going to be some towns left out. Meanwhile, the majority of us should get some rain, but nothing huge.
The highest chances of rain today run from about noon to 9 p.m. But as we saw here in St. Albans, this morning, there could be some rogue showers at any time.
I'm actually more worried about lightning than usual. I wonder if there will be strikes in the mountains and forests that will smolder under the brief rains today. Then, as drier, breezy air returns, will new forest fires break out? It's something to worry about a little.
A few storms today might have gusty winds, but if there are any severe storms, they will be isolated and brief.
It will feel hot and humid today. Southeastern Vermont in particular could get into the 90s again today, but I suspect most of central and northern Vermont should hold in the 80s. The humidity will make it feel worse.
WEATHER OUTLOOK
Tomorrow and Friday will be cooler than it's been, but still warm for the season. It'll start out kind of humid early tomorrow but you'll notice the air feeling drier as the day goes on with north breezes. A sort of semi-second barely noticeable cold front tomorrow might kick off some widely scattered showers or storms, but most of us won't see anything.
Friday looks sunny and warm, with low humidity - bad for the drought. Even worse, Saturday will stay dry, and become very warm to borderline hot (Highs well into the 80s, maybe 90 in the warmest valleys).
Another cold front due Sunday should kick off some showers and storms. But once again, they'll be hit and miss, and not overly impressive. Most of next week is looking pretty cool, which isn't surprising. Once we get into the second half of August, you start to notice summer's warmth faltering.
No comments:
Post a Comment