Sunday, August 3, 2025

"Slow" Start To Atlantic Hurricane Season Just Started Getting More Interesting

 Now that we're into August, it's time to watch the Atlantic tropics more intently. 

After a slow, but typical start of the Atlantic hurricane
season, the ocean is suddenly abuzz with areas
that might develop into storms. 
Right on schedule, there are signs of life in the tropical Atlantic.  There's nothing dire going on. But it's a sign the danger season is about here.   

As of today, Sunday, there are now two sort of interesting areas in the Atlantic. Neither is a big threat but one of them has potential to be quite a ways down the road. 

The first semi-exciting thing is a small storm forming along an old cold front off the North Carolina coast. The National Hurricane Center gives this thing a 70 percent chance of turning into a tropical or subtropical storm. 

Like the first three tropical systems of this year - Andrea, Barry and Chantal - this thing off the North Carolina coast will be pretty weak and short-lived, if it forms into the fourth named storm of the year, they'll name it Dexter.      

Even weak tropical storms can turn dangerous. The remnants of Barry contributed greatly to the tragic, fatal July 4 weekend flood in central Texas. And Chantal set off destructive flooding in central North Carolina. 

In Wannabe Dexter's case, it should move out into open water and not be a concern. Although a couple models keep it as a weak system but have it hugging the East Coast from North Carolina to New England.   

Since Wannabe Dexter looks lame, it does seem like the 2025 hurricane season is off to a slow start. 

That's actually pretty typical for the early season.  But compared to the hyper-active past few years, the summer of 2025 just seems anemic in the tropical storm department. 

But there's other parts of the Atlantic that's making hurricane forecasters sit up and take notice. One of them is a disturbance off the Southeast Coast that could develop into something late in the week. 

Another, possibly more ominous disturbance is expected to come off the west coast of Africa.  This type of disturbance usually have the potential to develop into a real hurricane, if overall conditions in the Atlantic Ocean work out. 

This one is the first African disturbance that has the potential into developing into something a bit scary. It will be watched carefully once it reaches the central Atlantic Ocean.  It's way too early to figure out for sure if it will indeed turn into a hurricane if so, where it will go. For now, it has a 40 percent chance of developing into...something. 

The bottom line the heart of the hurricane season is just beginning, and hurricane forecasters have to be at the top of their game for the next couple of months at least.  

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