After Being Mostly Cheated On Monday Rain, Vermont Faces Autumnal Week In One Of Its Driest Augusts On Record

Last evening had a bit of an autumnal look and feel
to it here in St. Albans, Vermont, and this week
will definitely be pre-autumn in Vermont. But
rain faltered Monday, and not much is in the 
forecast. This will likely be one of the driest
Augusts on record in the Green Mountain State., 

As always with summer rains, there were winners and losers with showers on Monday.

Things usually even out, but with our Vermont drought deepening, the stakes are much higher now. Yesterday's misses make the situation for many much more dire for many of us. 

It turns out a small area around where I live in northwest Vermont was the big winner. 

The more than three quarters of an inch of rain that fell around St. Albans and Georgia early Monday was more than anyone else in the Green Mountain State received by a pretty large margin. 

A patch of showers that passed through early this morning slightly added to the wet bonus in the Champlain Valley. 

My place in St. Albans received another 0.1 inches of rain early this morning, for a three day total of 0.95.   That's better than almost all the rest of Vermont. 

So I'm damn lucky. And gloating,

Elsewhere,  most places received a third of an inch of rain or less. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon provided a bit of additional help in a handful of places, but most of us stayed dry.   

August now stands an excellent chance of becoming one of Vermont's top 10 driest Augusts. In some towns, it might well be the driest August on record. 

So far this month, Montpelier has only had 0.31 inches of rain. They should have receive about 3..2 inches by now.. St. Johnsbury has logged only a half inch of rain so far in August. By now 3.3 inches should  have accumulated this month.  

If no more rain falls in Burlington this month, it'll be the second driest August on record with just 0.93 inches. (The driest August was in 1957 with just 0.72 inches.) The tenth driest August in Burlington was 1.49 inches in 1894, so we should make the list.  

It would take a big surprise this coming weekend for this August to become one of the ten driest. 

RAIN PROSPECTS

We do have a remote, outside chance of a decent rain this weekend, but I'm to holding my breath. Still, it seems increasingly likely that at least some parts of Vermont will get a little bit of rain Thursday night and Friday. And maybe continuing a bit on Saturday. really doubting it. 

We're in what I would guess pre-autumn now, and weather conditions will be classic September. 

Last evening, I really did feel start to feel the cool autumnal aspect of autumn, even if in reality it really wasn't all that cool. Just seasonable, but it's been mostly a hot summer until now. 

For the rest of the week, we'll have a pretty typical regime for autumn or even winter. A northwest flow with embedded weak disturbances will continue today and tomorrow. 

That means cool air and party cloudy skies with a risk of a few light showers, mostly in the mountains. It'll be sunniest in the southeast with virtually no chance of showers down there. Which is bad, because that part of the state really missed out on the rain Sunday and Monday. 

Today's showers won't amount to much, so in general, we'll either start drying out, or continue drying out. The drought lives on.  

On Thursday night a stronger cold front will approach. It also looks like an upper level storm will want to get going overhead or nearby, with a small corresponding small storm down where we live.

The front itself will have some oomph to it. So we might briefly get some moderate intensity showers and maybe a little rumble of thunder with it toward Friday. 

The upper level low will have a pocket of pretty chilly air with it, so highs Friday and Saturday probably won't get out of the 60s. Or even 50s in some colder, higher northern spots. Burlington on Friday will probably have its first sub-70 high temperature since June 13. 

Showers, mostly along the west slopes of the northern Green Mountains should continue into Saturday. That's a very typical winter pattern. At least it's going to be rain, not snow, right?  

Some - but not all - forecasts have the chilly upper level low lingering through the Labor Day weekend, If that chill remains, it won't be much of a farewell to summer. Too cold for the beach, and possibly too showery to enjoy hiking to the mountain summits. 

The late week storm and cold front are coming in from the north, so it won't be able to scoop up a lot of humid air from the south. So even though the front and storm might have a lot of energy, it probably won't be able to generate a huge amount of rain. 

But, as I keep saying, we'll take anything. We'll have a better idea of how much rain as we draw closer to the event. 

Longer range forecasts have high pressure stalling over us starting around Monday and continuing much of the following week. That will keep us dry with a bit of a warming trend. 

After this thing we're getting at the start of Labor Day weekend, the next chance of decent rains wouldn't come along until around September 5 or 6, as it looks now.