Cool Weather Not As Chilly Due To Climate Change. Also Rain Keeps Avoiding Us In Vermont

Broken clouds grace the sky over St. Albans, Vermont
this morning. Unfortunately those clouds will not
yield much rain this week.

Well, we're not exactly dying of heat stroke right now are we?

Autumn in August will continue for a couple more days while at least parts of Vermont will continue to get cheated out of the rain.  

First we'll get into the cool weather, then rain chances. 

As noted yesterday, Monday's low in Burlington was 49, the first time since June 3 it was under 50 degrees. It also was the first August night since 2020 and only the second since 2013 with August readings in the 40s. 

That we're remarking about what was historically an unremarkable overnight low in mid-August is yet another example of how climate change has altered our perspective. 

In the past, most Julys and almost all Augusts would routinely have at least one or two mornings in Burlington that got down into the 40s. 

That has changed. We haven't had a July with a low under 50 since 2015,  

This is the first August since 2020 that got into the 40s,  Of the ten Augusts between 2015 and 2024, eight of them stayed at 50 degrees or above.  In the 110 years before 2015, only five Augusts failed to get under 50 degrees in Burlington.

That's a huge shift. Nights have been warming faster than days under this climate change regime, so that in part explains the warmer nights. I imagine development of homes, businesses and roads around the Burlington International Airport, where measurements are taken, has had some influence on overnight lows. But climate change is almost certainly skewing the data, too.

Given the new weather pattern, we might actually have another night or two in the 40s in Burlington this month. But not right away. 

Clouds last night, and more clouds predicted  tonight are keeping overnights a little balmier than Monday's dawn was. The clouds will keep daytimes cool. Under a somewhat thin overcast with some breaks in the clouds, we should make it into the 70s today. 

Tomorrow should only make it into the 60s under thicker clouds, with maybe some readings near 70 north where the clouds might thin a bit,

Then we'll have a brief warming trend that will make it feel like summer again starting Thursday and continuing into the weekend. Highs on Saturday could reach the mid-80s. 

Early indications are that it will be back to "pre-fall" or "fair weather" after that, with cool weather seemingly in the cards next week, Unless Ma Nature pulls some sort of surprise. 

RAINFALL

We have a more complete picture of rainfall on Sunday, and it really was pathetic. A few places in north central Vermont, around Lamoille County managed about a quarter inch.  Other areas north of Route 2 managed to receive 0.1 to 0.2 inches, which falls well short of a soaker. 

Southern Vermont only got a few hundreds of an inch.

We definitely need the rain,  as is obvious to anyone who has seen everybody's lawn go brown. The Lake Champlain level was at 93.85 feet as of Sunday. That's the lowest level for mid-August in 34 years. The lake usually hits its lowest point later in the autumn. 

The computer models  have been flip flopping a bit on prospects for expected rainfall tomorrow, Earlier forecasts had most of the rain north, but now, southern Vermont seems to be the target for a little relief,

As of this  morning, forecasts call for perhaps a third to as much as a half inch of rain tomorrow, if we're lucky south of Route 4.  Northern areas miss out with a trace to maybe just a tenth of an inch of rain tomorrow.  I expect a few more forecast adjustments between now and tomorrow, so stay tuned. 

After that, it gets dry and warm again through Saturday. A cold front toward Sunday is our next chance of rain.

This far in advance, it's hard to know how much rain we'll get. Some computer models slow the front down near us, which would prolong the rain.  That would be great, but I'll believe it when I see it.