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| A severe thunderstorm over Lamoille County on July 10, as seen from a distance from Williston Vermont. Other than that date, severe weather was pretty infrequent in our hot, humid Vermont July, 2025 |
This July was another summer month that didn't really feel like Vermont.
In Burlington, the mean temperature was 74.6, tying with 1975 and 1995 as the sixth warmest on record.
This was the third July in a row that was among the top ten warmest on record. Six of the top 10 warmest Julys have happened since 2018.
Montpelier had its fifth warmest July on record.
Unlike June, there was never any super extreme heat. No record highs. The heat was fairly persistent, but not as relentless as last year. We managed to see a substantial break in the tropical conditions on July 20-23 and the 31st.
Still, Burlington had eight days that got to 90 degrees or more. Only ten other Julys in the past 125 years had as many or more such days.
It's telling how much climate change has altered our perception of a "normal" summer. Under the "new normal" which is the average of temperatures between 1990 and 2020, July in Burlington was a mere 2.2 degrees above this warmer "average".
Average temperature were much lower in most of the 20th century, of course. In July, 1975. the month Burlington just tied with for sixth warmest, was at the time more than five degrees warmer than average.
Rainfall
July in Vermont was dry, except in the Northeast Kingdom, parts of which had a destructive flash flood on July 10. The month was also a little on the wet side in the extreme northwest. Burlington was close to normal, while my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected a pretty soggy 6.5 inches of July rain.
Extreme southwest Vermont was also a little on the wet side, but overall, most of the state was dry. A lot of places missed out on many of the typical midsummer shower and thunderstorms.
So far, drought hasn't developed, thanks to the wet spring and early summer. Given the current forecast, though, I think some parts of Vermont will soon be declared "abnormally dry" though not in drought unless the rain falters for weeks on end.
St. Johnsbury, having endured by far its wettest month on record last July with an incredible 17 inches of rain, was one of the driest spots in Vermont this year. They only had about 2.4 inches of rain, or about half the usual installment for July. Rutland came up about two inches short for July rainfall
St Johnsbury is just south of the area hit be the July 10 flash floods in the Northeast Kingdom, which really was the only real extreme weather event of the month, other than the heat and humidity. The July 10 event severely damaged at least a couple homes, and washed away sections of road in Sutton, West Burke and East Haven.
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| Thick wildfire smoke from Canada obscures the view for these fishing enthusiasts at St. Albans Bay, Vermont on July 26 |
Other than that, there were only widely scattered instances of severe thunderstorm damage in Vermont during July, which is usually the peak of what passes for the Green Mountain States severe storm season.
The other hazard we dealt with was wildfire smoke from Canada. That's been happening most summers lately, in part another negative consequence of climate change.
Unlike in the upper Midwest, the smoke in Vermont usually wasn't that bad this July,
Except on July 26, when the air quality in Vermont was some of the worst ever seen.
LOOKING AHEAD
In June, NOAA released its outlook for July, indicating it would be a hot month around here. They were right. That forecast also leaned hesitantly toward July being a wee bit wetter than normal. I give that a win, too, since a few places in Vermont had some extra precipitation, while others were dry.
As we know, August is opening with cool weather. That won't last. Forecasts have us shifting to warmer than normal temperatures by Sunday afternoon,
We lose about an hour and a half of daylight, so normal temperatures will start to cool, especially during the second half of the month. That's only if we have some semblance of a typical pattern.
We do know that after we get through today and tomorrow, odds lean really heavily toward above normal temperatures through mid-month, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
Precipitation chances during the first half of the month in this forecast seem to be near normal, maybe ever so slightly leaning toward heavier than normal toward mid month.
Beyond mid month, forecasts get even more tenuous. The deeper into the future you go, the higher the odds forecasts will be off. Still, NOAA's three to four week outlook released today still leans pretty strongly toward above normal temperatures here. Rainfall is a tossup between above or below normal, so take your guess.
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