Hurricane Erin To Become Season's First Big Powerhouse. Thankfully Likely A Swing And A Miss

Visible satellite photo of Hurricane Erin this afternoon.
It's continuing to organize very efficiently and is
forecast to become a Category 4 or even 5 monster.

 What was Tropical Storm Erin, struggling over cool waters and dusty skies far out in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, moved into a more favorable place for hurricanes, so the storm obliged.  

As of today, it's Hurricane Erin. Its top winds were 75 mph as of mid-afternoon, just barely strong enough to be a Category 1. 

But Erin is moving into an area that's very friendly to hurricanes. There won't be much in the way of upper level winds that would disrupt the monster thunderstorms powering Erin. 

 It's also going to move over water that is at near record warmth. Warm water is jet fuel for hurricanes, so you're going to see this storm really ramp up. 

It looks like Erin will follow the frightening trend we've increasingly seen in hurricanes over the past few years. It goes from practically a nothing burger to scary top tier howler almost in an instant.

Scientists have been concerned about this trend.  Climate change appears to be making it easier for hurricanes to intensify at warp speed.   

The only hindrance to Erin strengthening is that it might ingest some dry air and dust to its north, which would disrupt its efforts to become big and bad just a little.

The official forecast has Erin with top wind speeds of 145 mph by Monday, making it a scary Category 4 storm,. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets even stronger than that.  Some hurricane forecasters are also saying that, so it could be a Cat 5 before all is said and done.

The great news is that - so far at least - forecasts tell us Erin is going to thread the needle between islands and coastlines, and stands a strong chance of never directly smashing into land. 

The current thinking is Erin will be north of the Leeward Islands tomorrow, well north of Puerto Rico ad the Dominican Republic Monday while it turns north east of the Bahamas. 

A weakness in the summertime Bermuda High seems to be coming to the rescue. Had the high pressure remained strong, Erin would continue west and plow into Florida or somewhere on the East Coast. 

Instead, almost all forecast models take big, bad Erin northward between Bermuda and the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then curving toward the northeast, passing far to the south and east of New England. 

Phew!

We still face dangers from Erin, however.  Not only will Erin be strong, it will be big and fat, so its effects will stretch far from its eye. 

 A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northern Leeward Islands, since Erin will be passing not that far to the north on Saturday. 

Hurricane Erin will generate large swells and rips currents that will make coastal areas dangerous from near Miami all the way up the east coasts of the United States and Canada as far north as Labrador. I imagine we'll see videos of coastal erosion, submerged shoreline roads, dramatic swimming rescues and maybe a few vulnerable beach homes and cottages falling into the waves and disintegrating. 

We'll also have to watch this thing carefully, as there's still a chance it could nudge a little further westward than today's forecasts are telling us.  If Erin does wander a little further west, it could produce at least tropical storm conditions in the Bahamas and eventually the Outer Banks of North Carolina. 

For my Vermont readers, Hurricane Erin will have no effect on us.