Just Calm Down Already About Those Wild Hurricane Forecasts

Despite the hype, we'll go to the National Hurricane 
Center. There's a low chance (in yellow) a tropical
storm might form in the central Atlantic, and a
medium chance (orange) that a storm or huricane
will form further south 

 It's that hazy, crazy time of year when you see those wild hurricane forecasts for a week or two in the future. 

A powerful hurricane will hit Florida! Wait, there will be two giant hurricanes attacking Florida from either side!  Whoops! New England is about to get blasted by the worst hurricane since 1938!  Oh, we lose New Orleans and Houston again!

Of course, it's almost guaranteed we will not see any of the scenarios later this month.  But these forecasts are all over social media, even if they're accompanying by a disclaimer that they're not an actually forecast. (Duh!). 

It's all about clicks and revenue for whoever is posting, you see. 

The forecasts are grounded in just the faintest glimmer of reality. The computer models that meteorologists rely on spit out new scenarios every six hours or so. (Some more frequently).  I've seen all the above scenarios in recent model runs, all happening around August 20 or 21, give or take.

I've written before about these "phantom hurricanes" in computer models. Now that we're getting into peak hurricane season, we've also entered into peak phantom hurricane season.

Despite the fact that the hurricanes depicted a couple weeks down the road won't play out like that in reality, these model runs are still useful.

They're all consistently telling us that the Atlantic Ocean is about to get pretty active with tropical storms and possible hurricane activity.  The model runs are a shot across the bow, warning us to pay attention starting now. 

Nobody can tell you for sure if a hurricane will form, and if it does, where it will go, but something will probably form. If you live in a hurricane prone area, you should finish stocking up the supplied you'll need if you ever receive a hurricane warning 

The fact that we're suddenly seeing hurricanes in the long range forecast is right on schedule. Disturbances  start coming off of the west coast of Africa in the July or the first half of August. Some of those disturbances turn into hurricanes. 

One of them is now in the central Atlantic and has a low chance of turning into a tropical storm or hurricane. If it does, the National Hurricane Center broadly thinks it will head north and not hit land, but again, no promises.

Another disturbance just came off the African Coast and is in the eastern Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is a little more bullish on this one, so far giving it a medium chance of developing into something. 

This is the one those computer models are depicting, the one that would destroy, Florida, New England, or hell, North Dakota for all I know. 

Again, nobody knows whether this thing will come anywhere near the United States, and if so where and at what strength. As you can see in the map of this post, the National Hurricane Center brings it west to northwestward, ending up somewhere in the tropical Atlantic in several days. The general area they think it might end up is the orange shaded area. 

From there, who knows?  Stay tuned

OVERALL SEASON

The National Hurricane Center this past week updated its forecast for the rest of the season. They're predicting 13 to 18 named storms, including the four tropical storms we've already had. An average season has 14 named storms, meaning tropical storms or hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. 

The NHC expects five to nine hurricanes (winds of at least 74 mph) and two to five major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or greater. 

Those figures are slightly busier than an average season.

What matters most is where those storms go.  There's some indication the United States East Coast might be a little more vulnerable to hurricanes than usual this year. 

As the Washington Post explained on Thursday, a marine heat wave has developed in the western Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. A marine heat wave is when an area of the ocean warms up dramatically to or near record levels. 

If a hurricane encounters those warm waters on the way to the United States, chances are they'll grow to be much stronger than a similar storm that encounters somewhat cooler water. In general, the hotter the water, the greater they chance a hurricane will grow stronger. 

Marine heat waves were a major reason why Hurricanes Helene and Milton proved so destructive when they hit the United States last year. 

Certain weather patterns steer hurricanes toward the East Coast and we seem to be trending toward ingredients that would do that. These include a strong Bermuda High with a westward extension toward the United States that would prevent a westward moving hurricane from the tropics from turning northward, out to sea.

Another ingredient is a strong blocking high pressure system over eastern Canada, which again would steer a hurricane up the coast rather than letting it curve eastward, out to sea

The third ingredient is a dip in the jet stream over the Appalachians. That dip might or might not develop in the coming weeks. But such a jet stream arrangement becomes a little more likely in September, which coincides with what is usually the worst of hurricane season. 

So, when you see those maps into the future on social media, the ones that tell you that your city will be wiped out by a major hurricane within two weeks, honestly just relax.

But don't ignore it.