Clickbaiting A Disaster: How Social Media "Influencers" Spread Weather Panic For Profit. .

Various forecasts for the track of Hurricane Melissa,
issued last Friday evening. Most of the predicted
paths accurately predicted the hurricane would
miss the U.S. East Coast by a wide margin. One
of the forecasts had it swerving toward New York
and some online hyped that. The black line is
the average of all the forecasts, and it was
quite close to the actual track of Melissa. 

Hurricane Melissa was bad enough, right?  

At least 50 people have died in the hurricane The destruction is immense in Jamaica. Haiti is a flooded, disastrous mess. Parts of the Bahamas are trashed, too. 

It was all super frightening. And fascinating in a horrifying way. 

As terrible as Hurricane Melissa was, people found ways to make everybody's distress over the tragedy worse.  

The means? Alarming people for online revenue.  . 

CLICKBAITING A DISASTER

A classic example came as Melissa was building up its strength last weekend. 

We knew then things would get bad, really bad in the Caribbean. The natural question was, would we in the United States suffer the wrath of Melissa?

By last Saturday, meteorologists were unanimously saying no, the United States was safe. 

But that didn't stop the folks on social media. One example came in a  Facebook post from Southern Maryland Weather Center  which called attention to this stupid scheme. 

Unlike Southern Maryland Weather Center and reputable meteorologists, social media scum scumbags This outfit tried to drum up fear on the East Coast, by suggesting Melissa would probably slam into the U.S. East Coast, probably near New Jersey.

This Facebook post said the person or persons they saw who showed the path toward New Jersey tried to clarify that the New Jersey scenario was unlikely, but who reads the fine print nowadays? 

Here's the deal: 

Each computer model has dozens of runs showing the projected track of storms. On Saturday, almost all those predicted tracks took Melissa over the Atlantic Ocean, very far from the East Coast. One of the tracks, on one of the models took Melissa to a landfall near New York City.  When you see a model track like that different from the others, it's known as an outlier. Probably bad data. Don't pay attention.

Most meteorologists and weather geeks ignored that outlier and accurately told the public that Hurricane Melissa would miss the East Coast by a wide margin. They figured it was better to be accurate than a lying carnival barker. 

Social media thrives on instilling fear, anger, strong emotions. You're going to get a stronger reaction if you tell New Yorkers a hurricane is going to destroy their homes. So more clicks, more revenue. 

This phenomenon isn't unique to Hurricane Melissa. Clickbaiters always pull looming weather catastrophes out of their hats whenever there's the slightest hint of a strange storm or temperature extreme. 

The average doomscroller on social media is not a weather geek. It's often hard for people not steeped in meteorology to figure out which source is reliable and which isn't.  

Go with the tried and true. The National Weather Service, or in the case of hurricanes, the National Hurricane Center.  

For local weather, the TV meteorologists in your area tend to be quite reliable. And use your judgement. If the weather source you're using always seems to tell you extreme weather is coming, beware. 

Blogs like this will report on severe weather when it's happening. Or before it happens. But if the forecast looks like a yawner, we'll tell you that, too.

Speaking of false Melissa information, I have another post coming on the flood of fake AI images about Hurricane Melissa and the harm that does. 

 . 

Hurricane Erin Slightly Weaker But Still Mighty. Also, Ignore The Hype Machine

Satellite view of Hurricane Erin just after dawn this
morning. You can't really see the eye as it's going
through what is known as an eyewall replacement
cycle. The hurricane is reorganizing. 

Monster Hurricane Erin as of this morning continues to behave itself about as well as a powerful hurricane can.  

It is still resolutely on course to avoid direct hits on any land, though of course the storm will continue to cause its share of trouble.  

Hurricane Erin has calmed down ever so slightly from its flashy strengthening on Saturday. You'll remember it was an extreme hurricane - Category 5 with top winds of 160 mph.

Early this morning, Erin was down to a top wind speed of 125 mph, the National Hurricane Center tells us.  That's still wicked dangerous, but it's no longer quite at the top of the scale. 

Last night, Hurricane Erin looks like it is going through  began to go through what is known as an eyewall replacement cycle. You might be familiar with the eye of a hurricane, that small clear center surrounded by the storm's most powerful winds.

That circle of powerful winds around the center of a hurricane is called the eyewall. The eye of a hurricane.  An eyewall replacement cycle is when it sort of collapses and forms a new eyewall, often larger than the original.

When this happens, a hurricane will usually weaken. They can re-strengthen after the cycle is complete. That might happen with Erin, but predicting the strength of a hurricane is even harder than forecasting its path. 

Hurricane Erin continues more or less on its predicted path, says the National Hurricane Center.  Its turn to the north might be a little more gradual than some previous forecasts, but it's happening.

The hurricane is getting larger in size, so islands pretty far from its center will see some rough weather. 

The Turks and Caicos Islands are under a tropical storm warning and the eastern Bahamas are under a tropical storm watch because the outer bands of Hurricane Erin will lash those places as it passes by to the east.  

AVOIDING THE HYPE

Ignore any clickbait you'll see on social media regarding Hurricane Erin. It's not going to hit Florida. And at worse, it's only going to give a glancing blow to North Carolina's Outer Banks. 

There will probably be some big waves and dangerous rip currents from Hurricane Erin on Florida's east coast,  and the rest of the U.S. East Coast for that matter, but that's about it. 

Floridians have some very understandable PTSD when it comes to hurricanes, given the storms they've had in recent years.  Telling everyone online that Florida is going to get hit by Erin is great for clicks and revenue, but pretty cruel and unethical when you know that's not going to happen. 

To be clear, my dear Floridians: Don't worry about Erin unless you plan to go swimming at Daytona Beach or something like that. 

If you want the best, most accurate forecasts about storms like Erin, go to the National Hurricane Center. 

Almost all the information I share about Hurricane Erin, or any tropical storm or hurricane I mention in this here blog thingy comes almost completely from the National Hurricane Center.

That's by far the most reliable source of information and forecasts for any tropical storm. Yes, Trump budget cuts have hurt the National Hurricane Center, but they're still doing fantastic work keeping us safe with their storm forecasts. 

Other great and reliable sources of hurricane information are The Weather Channel and a lot of local meteorologists near where you live. If you're in Florida, especially near Miami, pay attention to John Morales, who is really just about the top hurricane forecaster out there. If you're in Texas, especially the Houston area, rely on Matt Lanza, he's also top of the line. 

Lanza has a tropical weather blog called The Eyewall, which is a must-read for anyone worried about hurricanes and tropical storms. 

Just Calm Down Already About Those Wild Hurricane Forecasts

Despite the hype, we'll go to the National Hurricane 
Center. There's a low chance (in yellow) a tropical
storm might form in the central Atlantic, and a
medium chance (orange) that a storm or huricane
will form further south 

 It's that hazy, crazy time of year when you see those wild hurricane forecasts for a week or two in the future. 

A powerful hurricane will hit Florida! Wait, there will be two giant hurricanes attacking Florida from either side!  Whoops! New England is about to get blasted by the worst hurricane since 1938!  Oh, we lose New Orleans and Houston again!

Of course, it's almost guaranteed we will not see any of the scenarios later this month.  But these forecasts are all over social media, even if they're accompanying by a disclaimer that they're not an actually forecast. (Duh!). 

It's all about clicks and revenue for whoever is posting, you see. 

The forecasts are grounded in just the faintest glimmer of reality. The computer models that meteorologists rely on spit out new scenarios every six hours or so. (Some more frequently).  I've seen all the above scenarios in recent model runs, all happening around August 20 or 21, give or take.

I've written before about these "phantom hurricanes" in computer models. Now that we're getting into peak hurricane season, we've also entered into peak phantom hurricane season.

Despite the fact that the hurricanes depicted a couple weeks down the road won't play out like that in reality, these model runs are still useful.

They're all consistently telling us that the Atlantic Ocean is about to get pretty active with tropical storms and possible hurricane activity.  The model runs are a shot across the bow, warning us to pay attention starting now. 

Nobody can tell you for sure if a hurricane will form, and if it does, where it will go, but something will probably form. If you live in a hurricane prone area, you should finish stocking up the supplied you'll need if you ever receive a hurricane warning 

The fact that we're suddenly seeing hurricanes in the long range forecast is right on schedule. Disturbances  start coming off of the west coast of Africa in the July or the first half of August. Some of those disturbances turn into hurricanes. 

One of them is now in the central Atlantic and has a low chance of turning into a tropical storm or hurricane. If it does, the National Hurricane Center broadly thinks it will head north and not hit land, but again, no promises.

Another disturbance just came off the African Coast and is in the eastern Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is a little more bullish on this one, so far giving it a medium chance of developing into something. 

This is the one those computer models are depicting, the one that would destroy, Florida, New England, or hell, North Dakota for all I know. 

Again, nobody knows whether this thing will come anywhere near the United States, and if so where and at what strength. As you can see in the map of this post, the National Hurricane Center brings it west to northwestward, ending up somewhere in the tropical Atlantic in several days. The general area they think it might end up is the orange shaded area. 

From there, who knows?  Stay tuned

OVERALL SEASON

The National Hurricane Center this past week updated its forecast for the rest of the season. They're predicting 13 to 18 named storms, including the four tropical storms we've already had. An average season has 14 named storms, meaning tropical storms or hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. 

The NHC expects five to nine hurricanes (winds of at least 74 mph) and two to five major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or greater. 

Those figures are slightly busier than an average season.

What matters most is where those storms go.  There's some indication the United States East Coast might be a little more vulnerable to hurricanes than usual this year. 

As the Washington Post explained on Thursday, a marine heat wave has developed in the western Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. A marine heat wave is when an area of the ocean warms up dramatically to or near record levels. 

If a hurricane encounters those warm waters on the way to the United States, chances are they'll grow to be much stronger than a similar storm that encounters somewhat cooler water. In general, the hotter the water, the greater they chance a hurricane will grow stronger. 

Marine heat waves were a major reason why Hurricanes Helene and Milton proved so destructive when they hit the United States last year. 

Certain weather patterns steer hurricanes toward the East Coast and we seem to be trending toward ingredients that would do that. These include a strong Bermuda High with a westward extension toward the United States that would prevent a westward moving hurricane from the tropics from turning northward, out to sea.

Another ingredient is a strong blocking high pressure system over eastern Canada, which again would steer a hurricane up the coast rather than letting it curve eastward, out to sea

The third ingredient is a dip in the jet stream over the Appalachians. That dip might or might not develop in the coming weeks. But such a jet stream arrangement becomes a little more likely in September, which coincides with what is usually the worst of hurricane season. 

So, when you see those maps into the future on social media, the ones that tell you that your city will be wiped out by a major hurricane within two weeks, honestly just relax.

But don't ignore it. 

Winter Hype Vs Reality: Yes It Will Get Cold, But No Storm Of The Century

On December 30, the American computer models
depicted an intense storm over the Northeast on
January 11. This won't happen, but this type of 
thing doesn't stop the people hyping extremes
on social media from highlighting it for clicks
and revenue. Then the update.......

With the forces of Arctic air gearing up for an invasion into the United States, the social media hype on the weather corners of social media are gearing up for maximum clicks and hoped-for revenue.  

You know the drill

Worst Cold Wave Ever, Millions Will Die Of Hypothermia!!

Entire East Coast To Be Buried In Worst Blizzard Ever!

Huge Florida Snowstorm! Blizzard To Hit Cuba!!

OK, I'm exaggerating, the hype isn't quite that extreme, but you get the point.  

The social media weather weenie click addicts are taking advantage of an upcoming cold wave to really drum up the revenue efforts by telling you the End Of The World Is Nigh, and it's in the form of extreme winter weather. 

If you believe any of this crap, Me and Jackson the Weather Dog are here to calm you down.  The Storm Of The Century is not looming, so we can all take a chill pill.

The weather hype gang is cherry picking some of the more exciting computer model images. Every day, there are dozens and dozens of models and model runs forecasting what might happen a week or more down the road.

These long range models are useful in telling us overall trends. Will it be generally stormy or calm 10 days down the road? More than a week from now, will it be generally warm or generally cold? The long range models can help with those questions.  

What those models can't do is tell us specifically where a storm will be say, ten days from now, how intense it would be and what type of weather it would bring. 

The maps in this post illustrate how both the hype and reality work. 

This morning's American model for the same date as
above, January 11, shows benign weather over
New England. If this came true, we'd have a 
chilly northwest breeze and mountain snow showers.
It's too soon for either map on this page to fully,
accurately predict what will actually happen Jan. 11.

 For fun, I cherry picked one version of  the American model, issued December 30, which shows a super intense, probably destructive storm in the Northeast on January 11. 

If this came true, which it almost certainly won't, New England would face damaging winds, coastal flooding, inland flooding and deep, disruptive snow and ice inland. 

This is precisely the type of image the click bait people jump on. Stuff like this was all over social media. 

Then I took a look at one run of the latest American model, issued this morning, to see what they have planned for January 11. 

The answer? Not much. It shows a moderate, cold northwest wind over New England with some mountain snow showers and a nippy high pressure system approaching. 

Since January 11 is still more than a week away, we probably won't exactly have either of these scenarios, though the calmer version of the two is more likely.  This long range forecasts indicate it  will probably be cold, and a perhaps a bit unsettled on January 11, but it can't give us more details than that. 

What follows is the bottom line. 

Here's what we know:

 It's going to get cold here in Vermont, and in most of the eastern two-thirds of the nation sooner rather than later.  In most places, the cold won't be extreme for the middle of winter, but might intensify some once we get into the second week of the month. 

This won't be the tropical type winter month that we've seen too often in recent years. But it won't be the coldest ever. Not by a long shot. 

It's definitely going to snow in a lot of places, but for the most part it's too soon to say who will really get nailed with deep snow.  Places prone to lake affects snows near the Great Lakes are getting hammered, as you'd expect in this type of weather pattern.

It looks like some sort of storm will spread snow, ice and rain from Kansas to the Middle Atlantic States Sunday and Monday.  Exactly who gets the worst weather and how much they get is still TBA. It looks like it might end up being  a rather disruptive storm in those areas, but, hey, it's winter in the Grand Old U.S. of A.

Here's what we don't know: 

There will be other storms in the next couple weeks, and some places will get nasty amounts of snow, ice, schmutz, wind and cold.   But unlike some breathless things I've seen on YouTube and elsewhere, nobody's getting a repeat or worse of the Blizzard of 1993.

Computer models are also all over the place beyond a few days from now as to how intense the cold will get, where it will be at its worst and how long it will last.  True, the eastern  half of the nation will be nippy for sure..

But it remains to be seen whether this will be a run of the mill January wave or something worse. Winters have generally gotten milder, so even a moderately intense cold snap might feel pretty bad.

Here in Vermont, aside from persistent mountain snow showers, we seem safe from any big winter storms for awhile. The one I mentioned above for Sunday and Monday should pass by well to the south. 

Beyond about five days, it's virtually impossible to tell whether anything will come by to bring us substantial snow.  For what it's worth, the computer models aren't pretty much not showing anything dire for awhile, other than it'll be cold.  

Bottom line: The next time you see somebody tell you that a week from ten days from now, we will have some sort of dire, once in a lifetime weather event, ignore it, and move on. These people don't need the attention. 

The National Weather Service and your reputable local television meteorologists, or people like the Eye on the Sky folks in St. Johnsbury will have a much better handle on things. 

No, Bitter Cold Isn't Coming Anytime Soon, Despite Social Media Click Bait

A brief but intense cold wave last February 3 brought steam
devils and funnels over the relatively warm waters of
Lake Champlain. That cold spell hit in an otherwise
warm winter. Despite the hype, there's no 
guarantees on whether it will turn frigid 
later this winter. 

 If you pay attention to any of the click bait weather sites on social media, you'd think we're headed into a new ice age later on in January. 

Oh, we have a sudden stratospheric warming!  The polar vortex is going to go haywire! Incredible cold is going to envelop the Northern Hemisphere for the rest of the winter! We're ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!

Um, no. Relax, folks. 

For us here in Vermont, and for the rest of the nation for that matter, we probably will see some sharp cold spells in January and February. 

It's winter, after all. Climate change does not prevent subzero cold waves. It just makes them somewhat less likely, 

And honestly, it's incredibly hard to imagine our January will be nearly as much warmer than normal as this December has been. This month will very likely be the second warmest December on record in Burlington. 

THE REALITY

Like all internet hype, there are grains of truth in them and the basic science behind the hype is also fairly accurate. But that doesn't mean a frigid Armageddon.  It just means we'll have interesting weather. Nobody in their right mind is able to tell you what kind of interesting weather we'll see beyond, say New Year's Day.  So we'll have to work with what we have.

To set this up, let's review the basics. First, the polar vortex.  It's a big whirl of cold air in the atmosphere that's always somewhere in or near the Arctic during the colder months. Depending on where the polar vortex is, and how the jet stream is oriented around it, the Arctic air might slip down into Europe, or Asia, or North America. Or it could remain bottled up near the Arctic.

For the most part, the polar vortex has lately been pretty tight and sitting way up there in the far north. That's keeping the bulk of the ridiculously cold air far to our north. That's why it's so warm. 

The jet stream is in the process of reconfiguring itself, so it might get a little colder as we head into the New Year, but it will still be fairly mild. 

The next big thing in the hype machine is that sudden stratospheric warming.  For some reason, in roughly half of all winters, the stratosphere warms up over the far north. It's part of a pattern in which the polar vortex abruptly weakens and gets disorganized. The polar vortex can also stretch out in weird directions and can temporarily relocate it further south. 

When this happens, bitter Arctic air can easily slam southward........somewhere.  Again, could be Europe, could be Asia, could be southern Canada and the United States.

The reason people online are getting the vapors is because there are signs a sudden stratospheric warming might be about to happen.  We're not absolutely sure whether it will happen, but the way signs are pointing, experienced meteorologist wouldn't' be surprised if it does in the next couple of weeks. 

The effects of this on the ground are delayed a bit. So whoever loses the luck of the draw - if anybody - in this, it won't happen until maybe the second half of January into February. 

On top of all this, we have other factors to consider.  We're in a raging El Nino, which keeps the southern end of the jet stream across the U.S. South active. Will a weirded out polar vortex work in concert with El Nino to direct Arctic cold and blizzards into the United States?   Or will El Nino direct any cold air toward Europe?  

The answer? Dunno. 

But wait, there's more! Other complex factors will help determine whether we have any kind of old fashioned Arctic blast later this winter, or will it be another pffft type of season.  

 Will the weather pattern feature a jet stream blowing hard into the West Coast then heading east across America? That could keep us on the warm side. Or maybe a ridge of high pressure will develop over the Rockies and western Canada. That would send cold air plunging our way. Or maybe there will be blocking high pressure in or near Greenland, which could also make us cold and stormy. Another possibility is a ridge of high pressure off the southeast coast, which keep us in New England mild.

Yeah, it's complicated. 

BOTTOM LINE

It's fun to try to read the tea leaves to figure out what the rest of the winter will be like. I plead guilty to that sort of thing. 

Some weather enthusiasts love to imagine epic East Coast blizzards.  That's all well and good. But some of them are wishcasting - defined as forecasting for the kind of weather they want, and not necessarily what will actually happen. 

Basically, don't believe any forecast you hear that's more than five days out. If you wake up on Saturday morning to hear that a blizzard is coming the following Saturday, ignore it until midweek, and then see whether wintry weather is coming or not. 

Chances are, thet blizzard that one computer model run out of of hundreds spit out will go poof, and we'll just have boring January weather instead.  

How Social Media Weather Hype Is Created. Spoiler: No Big New England Hurricane

One computer model run had a hurricane bearing down
on New England on August 22. This will NOT happen,
and was just a bad long range forecast. 

I wish I saved screen shots, but I saw just a couple social media posts screaming that New England is in for a major hurricane around August 22.  

I wouldn't start evacuating the coast just yet. It's virtually certain that won't happen. 

It started, I think, with the American computer model forecast issued very early Monday morning that depicted a pretty intense looking hurricane on August 22 just south of Long Island, heading north. 

This was issued a full 16 days before the supposed event. You can see it depicted in the first image in this post. As the headline states, this will not happen.

The forecast is terrific click bait.  Some of us would love to scream HURRICANE! on social media for fun and especially profit.  People who aren't weather geeks might buy it, and share it. 

Can't blame them, really. Most people have neither the time nor the inclination to learn and understand the intricacies of long range weather forecasts.  

Another run of the same computer model six hours later
shows benign weather over the Northeast on August 22
with no sign of a hurricane. Beware depictions of
one model run showing drama a couple weeks away.
Guaranteed it won't happen. 

Don't get me wrong, the American model is great. The forecasts for just the next few days are great. Once you get a few days out, all computer models get lousy at forecasting specifics. 

 For the long range, beyond, say five days, the models are useful to help determine general trends for next week and beyond.  Will the weather pattern a week or more from now be generally hot or cold? Wet or dry? You can gain hints from the forecast models.

As far as specifics depicting on these long range maps go, it doesn't work.  Another American model forecast, issued six hours later than the one previous, but for the same time frame,  depicts no particularly interesting weather near the East Coast on August 22. 

That new forecast shows maybe some scattered showers and storms off the North Carolina coast, and some pretty average weather up in New England. No hurricanes in sight.  You can see this forecast in the second image in this post. 

Subsequent model runs through this morning also show no signs of any hurricanes along the East Coast. 

Like all hype, this New England hurricane scenario is based on the tiniest grain of truth.  The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of disturbed weather off the west coast of Africa. This disturbance might or might not eventually develop into a hurricane. 

If it does become a hurricane, nobody knows whether it will hit land anywhere or go harmlessly out to sea. I think this African disturbance is what that American model picked up on.

We also shouldn't let our guard down at all regarding hurricanes, either. 

They've been predicting a busy hurricane season. Despite the lack of recent activity, there's no reason to discount those hurricane forecasts.

Dust from the Sahara Desert has been squelching tropical storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean. That dust will soon fade. Besides, there's usually not much in the way of hurricanes out there until mid August. 

Ocean temperatures are quite warm along the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast.  There's no reason why a hurricane can't blast through New England or any other place along the East Coast this year. 

New England has had nasty August hurricanes and tropical storms in 1954 (Hurricane Carol);Ex-hurricanes Connie and Diane in 1955; Hurricane Bob in 1991 and Tropical Storm Irene in 2011.

For now, though, relax.  There's no hurricane heading toward New England. If there were, you'd hear all about it through local media, meteorologists and the National Hurricane Center. 

Until or unless a reputable meteorologist tells you a hurricane is coming, just go about your business and ignore the hype. 

Hype Time For Possible Monday Storm: Don't Buy It. At Least Not Yet

 Twitter was all,  um, atwitter late this morning, at least among weather geeks concerning the latest run of the GFS, or American computer model.

All the models for a couple days now have hinted at a substantial storm off the East Coast early next week.  Some models had brought the storm within striking distance of at least eastern New England. 

One run of the American computer model this morning
depicts an intense storm hitting New England early
next week. Despite this image, don't panic. 
The forecast will change drastically, and there might
not be a storm at all. Or it might miss. Truth be
told, nobody knows yet.

But today's late morning American model depicts a tremendous storm scoring a direct strike on New England, and providing Vermont with what would amount to be a blizzard.  

Before you take off on a panic buy for bread and milk for some reason, relax.  You're going to hear a lot of chatter today about this particular prediction. Meanwhile, other computer models are taking that potential storm well off the coast. 

The disturbance that would ultimately lead to this maybe storm is still out in the Pacific Ocean as of late this morning. That means there's not a lot of data on it to feed into the computer models. Which means none of the computer models really know what they're talking about yet.

Sure, they've locked on the idea of some sort of really big storm along, or at this point more likely off the East Coast. Maybe even way, way off the East Coast. 

There will be a lot of computer models between now and early next week. It will be entertaining, and even a little informative, to watch them. 

We can keep our eye on trends, and by Saturday, I think we'll have a good and realistic handle on at least the broad brush impacts or non-impacts this storm would have. 

For now, ignore the hype, bundle up against today's frigid weather and the almost equally frigid air due later Friday through Saturday. I'll watch the updates, too, and forward along what I, and meteorologists far more expert than me come up with. 

And if you see "the world is going to end!" storm warnings on social media between now and the weekend, ignore them.  They're just trying to get you excited and click on their sites for fun and especially profit. 

There's Still False Storm Hype Out There, Despite Tranquil Forecast

This image on the National Weather Service home page was
not at all colorful this morning. That's a good thing. Lots
of color on this map means lots of warnings and 
weather dangers. Seems mostly clear for 
Thanksgiving travel today! 

 Gawd, I  hate clickbait. 

That's when you put out some sensational or shocking news out there on social media to garner clicks, eyeballs and presumably income, even though the actual news is much less exciting. 

With weather forecasts, it's fine to say some long range computer models suggest something noteworthy, like a big storm, IF you qualify it somehow in the headlines and prominently in the story that the storm is not set in stone. 

As of a week ago, some computer models a week ago were suggesting the possibility of a very disruptive storm in the United States Thanksgiving week.

As better data came in, it became clear by Friday that the early computer models were a bit overwrought. No major storm would form. Just the typical November ick in spot. 

Still, as of Friday and even Saturday, major players like AccuWeather hyped the potential storm in their headlines, which I think pushed it too far.  At least AccuWeather backed down somewhat with the headlines when it became clear Thanksgiving travel would not get screwed up by any kind of big storm. 

Still, as of this morning, AccuWeather still had a link to their story on Twitter, posted just yesterday, headlined, "Brewing storm to threaten disruptions at worst possible time."

To be clear, there might be periods this week where some corners of the nation might have kind of "meh" weather that's not great, there is no storm to speak of that's brewing.  

As of this morning, the Weather Channel still had a headline up headlined "A Couple Of Rough Travel Days Ahead."

With the volume of travelers, and staff shortages, combined with not-at-all-extreme rain showers and gusty winds in the Northeast Monday, flight delays and a few cancelations are inevitable, but this isn't Armageddon, and weather will only be a bit player in any chaos. 

NBC News was still tweeting on Friday the headline, "Thanksgiving week storm gearing up to affect busiest airports in the nation."   Sorry, no it wasn't. 

There are YouTube videos up posted just yesterday, some correctly saying no big storms are on the horizon, others still hyping.

 To pat myself on the back a little bit, my headline for potential Thanksgiving week storminess that I posted last week said. "Still Question Marks For Next Week."

My Friday morning headline was, "We Can Forget About That Thanksgiving Storm, (I Think!)"

The "I think" was to cover my ass in case there was an unlikely surprise shift in the forecast. So far the only shift I see is turning an already mediocre expected cold front even more lame. 

I'm not a meteorologist, even though I've had training in the field. I'm just a weather enthusiast who relies on outfits like the National Weather Service to get my information. Sometimes I get things wrong.  Happens to everyone. I apologize, correct or explain myself and move on. We're all humans. Nobody gets it right all the time. 

I also happen to like, even love clicks in my direction on social media.  But it's irresponsible for anyone to exaggerate things to cause false alarms, all in the effort to gain attention.

I know that's the way of the world these days. Social media clicks are the new personal validation and also money making enterprise. But this old fart still rebels against all that. 

So sue me already.