How Social Media Weather Hype Is Created. Spoiler: No Big New England Hurricane

One computer model run had a hurricane bearing down
on New England on August 22. This will NOT happen,
and was just a bad long range forecast. 

I wish I saved screen shots, but I saw just a couple social media posts screaming that New England is in for a major hurricane around August 22.  

I wouldn't start evacuating the coast just yet. It's virtually certain that won't happen. 

It started, I think, with the American computer model forecast issued very early Monday morning that depicted a pretty intense looking hurricane on August 22 just south of Long Island, heading north. 

This was issued a full 16 days before the supposed event. You can see it depicted in the first image in this post. As the headline states, this will not happen.

The forecast is terrific click bait.  Some of us would love to scream HURRICANE! on social media for fun and especially profit.  People who aren't weather geeks might buy it, and share it. 

Can't blame them, really. Most people have neither the time nor the inclination to learn and understand the intricacies of long range weather forecasts.  

Another run of the same computer model six hours later
shows benign weather over the Northeast on August 22
with no sign of a hurricane. Beware depictions of
one model run showing drama a couple weeks away.
Guaranteed it won't happen. 

Don't get me wrong, the American model is great. The forecasts for just the next few days are great. Once you get a few days out, all computer models get lousy at forecasting specifics. 

 For the long range, beyond, say five days, the models are useful to help determine general trends for next week and beyond.  Will the weather pattern a week or more from now be generally hot or cold? Wet or dry? You can gain hints from the forecast models.

As far as specifics depicting on these long range maps go, it doesn't work.  Another American model forecast, issued six hours later than the one previous, but for the same time frame,  depicts no particularly interesting weather near the East Coast on August 22. 

That new forecast shows maybe some scattered showers and storms off the North Carolina coast, and some pretty average weather up in New England. No hurricanes in sight.  You can see this forecast in the second image in this post. 

Subsequent model runs through this morning also show no signs of any hurricanes along the East Coast. 

Like all hype, this New England hurricane scenario is based on the tiniest grain of truth.  The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of disturbed weather off the west coast of Africa. This disturbance might or might not eventually develop into a hurricane. 

If it does become a hurricane, nobody knows whether it will hit land anywhere or go harmlessly out to sea. I think this African disturbance is what that American model picked up on.

We also shouldn't let our guard down at all regarding hurricanes, either. 

They've been predicting a busy hurricane season. Despite the lack of recent activity, there's no reason to discount those hurricane forecasts.

Dust from the Sahara Desert has been squelching tropical storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean. That dust will soon fade. Besides, there's usually not much in the way of hurricanes out there until mid August. 

Ocean temperatures are quite warm along the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast.  There's no reason why a hurricane can't blast through New England or any other place along the East Coast this year. 

New England has had nasty August hurricanes and tropical storms in 1954 (Hurricane Carol);Ex-hurricanes Connie and Diane in 1955; Hurricane Bob in 1991 and Tropical Storm Irene in 2011.

For now, though, relax.  There's no hurricane heading toward New England. If there were, you'd hear all about it through local media, meteorologists and the National Hurricane Center. 

Until or unless a reputable meteorologist tells you a hurricane is coming, just go about your business and ignore the hype.