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| Billowing clouds and showers tried to form last evening around St. Albans, Vermont ahead of today's cold front. A few spot downpours hit here and there, but many places remained dry. Wetter today in northern areas, though. |
I'm less bullish on rainfall than I was with this thing, though there still could be some locally heavy rains. More on that in a bit.
The cold front is oriented west to east, and was slowly pressing south from Quebec.
It does get cooler and less humid behind the front, but after it comes through, it will still be murky and kind of sticky for awhile.
Temperatures early this morning in Vermont ahead of the cold front were in the toasty 70s with still-ridiculous dew points in the low 70s. North of the front, temperatures were in the low to mid 60s with dew points in that same general range, low 60s or so.
The cold front looks like it cross the International Border at around 3 a.m. and had only made it to about Plattsburgh by 5 a.m and Burlington by 6 a.m.
Low level cooler air can bleed south into the Champlain Valley pretty easily. Not so in much of the rest of Vermont. Montpelier was still at 77 degrees at 6 a.m., which is incredible early morning temperature for that normally cool spot.
Central Vermont might not see relief from the heat and humidity until later today or tonight. Southern Vermont won't see that sweet relief until tomorrow.
This sets us up for a weird weather day in Vermont. North of Route 15, places like St. Albans and Newport, temperatures today probably won't get out of the 60s to near 70. There will be lots of clouds in place, some fog, and showers.
Rain was moving west to east, mostly along and north of the front. Rain was right on the U.S-Canadian border as of 6:45 a.m. It was just foggy in St. Albans, but the fog was pretty dense.
The heaviest stuff looks like it will fall on southern Quebec and in western and northern Maine. A flood watch is up for northern and central Maine this afternoon and tonight. Rainfall warnings are up for much of southern Quebec.
All of these areas could easily see two or more inches of rain out of this system. Already, early this morning, though the cold front is in far northern Vermont, almost all the rain was up in Quebec. So the forecast so far makes sense.
Northern Vermont, mostly north of Route 15, is still in NOAA's slight risk zone of flash flooding today and tonight, but I suspect anything that develops will be relatively minor. Still, it's very much worth keeping an eye on, especially if an area of heavy rain develops in any particular area and lingers there.
The rain up north looks spotty this morning, but is forecast to fill in more later today and tonight.
We're still playing with rich tropical air nearby, so some downpours can become surprisingly heavy and potentially dangerous.
Forecast rainfall way up in northern Vermont ranges from 1 to 1.5 inches, give or take.
In central Vermont, most of the day will be humid and rather cloudy, with breaks of sun. Temperatures will get well up into the 80s in many areas, so it won't really be any better than Sunday.
In fact, heat advisories are up again today for the southern Champlain Valley, valleys of southwestern Vermont and in the lower Connecticut River valley. These areas will feel like they're in the mid to upper 90s today, with that combination of 85-90 degree air, and super high dew points.
Scattered showers and storms will form, more numerous than yesterday. Most of your showers and storms come late today and tonight. Expect about a half inch of rain in central Vermont on average, with widely varying totals. Some places that get bullseyed by good downpours might see an inch of rain while some people might lose out and barely manage a quarter inch.
These slow moving cold fronts are tricky. It was running a bit ahead of schedule this morning, but signs point to it stalling and lifting north a bit again temporarily. If this happens, some people who managed to find themselves in the relatively cooler air behind the front might suddenly get a blast of oppressive humidity again. At least for a few hours.
A wiggling front like that could shift who gets the heaviest rain around a bit, too.
By tomorrow, though, northern and parts of central Vermont will be well enveloped by the cooler, less humid air. Actual temperatures will only be in the low to mid 70s. It looks like showers will linger through a good chunk of the day, but they will probably be pretty light.
Far southern Vermont will have to wait until later in the day Tuesday to get out of the heat and humidity. That part of the state will continue to dodge showers and thunderstorms here and there. A couple of them might be heavy rainers, but I'm not expecting anything that out of control in southern Vermont.
It's too bad the rain won't focus on southeastern Vermont, which needs the rain more than in other parts of the Green Mountain State.
Everyone in Vermont should be free and clear of that pesky humidity Wednesday through Sunday at least.
Thursday might be a little on the warm and humid-ish side ahead of a reinforcing cold front, but it won't be nearly as bad as it's been. Otherwise, we can look forward to that fresh air coming our way -- eventually.
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