Hot And Humid And Stormy Trend Underway, With Some Adjustments

Cloudy skies like this over my St. Albans, Vermont
house late this morning will keep it from getting as
hot as forecast today. No 90 degree weather in 
northern Vermont today after all, but it will
still be uncomfortably humid. 

 Our spell of hot, humid, stormy weather in Vermont is just now getting underway as of 11 a.m. Thursday, but already, there are a few changes in the forecast.  

A band of clouds has spilled into most of Vermont, which means afternoon temperatures today won't be as hot in central and northern areas as first thought. But the humidity is rising steadily and it will still be a sweaty afternoon.

Far southern Vermont and the rest of southern New England will still really feel the heat this afternoon, and down there, some record highs for the date will probably be set. 

For now, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is sticking today's heat advisories in the Champlain Valley and a lot of the valleys in central and southern Vermont. Northern areas might not actually meet the criteria for a heat advisory, which is a combination of hot air and humidity that makes it feel like it's 95 to 100 degrees. 

Usually, when you get as many clouds as the northern two thirds of Vermont seems to be getting today, you can forget about any thunderstorms forming. 

But, with the building humidity and a so-called cold front to our north, I still think some showers and thunderstorms will blossom. And with that wet air, some of these storms and showers should have some torrential downpours today and early tonight. However, the clouds probably will temper the intensity of the showers and storms somewhat. 

Not everyone will get blasted by heavy rain. It's kind of a hit and miss arrangement today, which as you probably know is typical for summer. I picture some places getting a trace of rain, while a lucky few get blasted by an inch or more. Most of us will see less than a half inch of rain today. Much less in many cases. 

The relatively low chance of any severe storms would come in the form of what is known by the decidedly non-sexy term "wet microburst."  That's basically when a thunderstorm collapses, releasing all of its rain and wind all at once. That down rush of rain in a wet microburst causes damaging winds, zero visibility and the risk of flash flooding in a relatively small area, say a couple to a few miles long and a mile or so wide. 

If any wet microbursts happen today in Vermont, they'll be few and far between. 

Another thing we still need to watch is the risk that some thunderstorms or series of them, could touch of a very local flash flood.  The low but real risk of these goes from about now through tomorrow. I'm thinking the best chances of a heavy rainer that could bring a bit of high water is over northern and central Vermont today, then central and southern Vermont tomorrow. 

It has been dry, which will help prevent flash flooding, but if it rains hard enough for long enough, it can still happen.

Just to be on the safe side, if you're camping on the woods or something like that, do it on a hill, not next to a stream or brook. 

They keep calling what's coming at us as a cold front, but it's a cold front in name only. I suppose northern areas might end up being every so slightly less humid behind the front tomorrow, but it will still be humid.

The heat and humidity will reassert itself over the weekend, with the ever present chance of a few scattered thunderstorms and downpours. 

Another cold front, this time a real one, still looks like it wants to come in early next week. Since it will be a slow mover with plenty of humidity to work with, we'll also have to watch out for local flash floods then. 

With all the clouds around