Sunday, August 14, 2022

An Odd August Forecast: A New England Nor'easter?

An out of season but relatively weak nor'eastern
MIGHT develop along or off the coast this week. 
 In the late fall and winter, New England is famous for its nor'easters.  

For the few uninitiated out there, nor'easters are coastal storms that mostly head in a direction toward the northeast, and often cause strong northeasterly winds in New England.  The gusts are often quite strong,a lot of rain or snow can fall with these things, and they can cause coastal flooding and erosion. 

You usually need a lot energy in the atmosphere, and a nice clash of cold air from Canada and warm tropical air to generate one of these things. In the summer, you don't have that energy, or those major clashes, so you don't get nor'easters. 

Until you do.

Every once in a great while in the summer, we do manage to get a nor'easter of sorts anyway, and one seems to want to develop later this week. 

This won't be a super bomb of a storm, as it IS summer. We lack a lot of the ingredients to make this a powerhouse. Still, a stronger than normal (for this time of year) dip in the jet stream over the Northeast, and a strong ridge up near Atlantic Canada sets the stage for this storm to develop.

But where? A few computer models have it hugging the New England coast,causing some gusty winds and decent rains there. Other models have it completely missing New England and targeting Nova Scotia instead. Other models are in between. 

Since we don't know yet the effects this thing might have on southern and eastern New England, we really don't know what will happen with this, if anything, in Vermont. 

As unpleasant as a nor'easter would be for vacationers in New England, a hugging the coast scenario would be ideal. All of New England could use the rain, as much of the region is in drought. Coastal New England is in severe to extreme drought, so they could really use a soaker. 

A nice thing about a nor'easter is it would bring a steady rain to a large area, rather than piddling hit and miss showers and thunderstorms that are most common in the summer.

But, it's too soon to get hopes up. Especially since the computer models this morning, at least want to nudge the storm further east, meaning less rain for New England.

Whatever happens, the storm will move away by the end of the week.  The relatively cool and refreshing weather we've had for the past few days will be replaced by warmer and somewhat more humid air 

It won't be as bad as last week was, but you'll know summer is still kicking around..

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