Head's Up! Friday's Vermont Weather Could Get "Interesting"

National Weather Service has a chance of 
severe storms over New England, including
here in Vermont during the day Friday. 

 Although today will be unremarkable in the weather department here in Vermont, Friday could get a lot more interesting. At least in a few spots. 

The ingredients seem to be coming together for the risk of severe storms and pockets of torrential rains.  A this point, central and southern Vermont seem to be the main target, though that could change.  

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has central and southern Vermont in a slight risk zone for severe weather. That's level two of five in its alert scale. Far northern Vermont is a marginal risk zone, level 1 of 5, which means only isolated, brief severe weather might happen there. 

As is always the case, most of us won't see damaging weather, but there could easily be a few pockets of strong winds, heavy rain and hail.  You know the drill. There's even another very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado. If that happens, it will probably be south of Route 2. This risk might  happen if any supercells form ahead of any lines of storms. 

A very weak front from Canada today is pressing south into Vermont. That will give us a tiny, tiny bit of relief from the humidity, and possibly set off a widely scattered shower. 

However, the humidity will flood back in overnight and on Friday. That high humidity will greet a stronger cold front sagging south from Canada. 

Early indications are that the front might arrive in far northern areas with its clouds early enough in the day to prevent a lot of instability from forming. If this happens, northern areas would mostly lose the chance for severe weather. Of course, the front could always slow down, leaving the north with some morning sunshine.

Further south, the chances of morning sun are better. That will increase instability. This will probable evolve into clusters of storms, and possibly bowing lines of storms. 

A bowing line is shaped like a backwards "C." The part of the line that is at the apex of this backwards C would have damaging winds. 

Another risk is torrential downpours, especially if several storms go over the same spot. All of New England and northeastern New York is in a marginal risk zone for excessive rain and flash flooding.  That means there won't be anything widespread, but there could be a pocket of flash flooding in one or two spots. 

If any flood issues develop, it would most likely be in a spot that got a ton of rain Tuesday, and then gets lucky or unlucky enough to get hit by a couple or few storms tomorrow. 

Things clear out Friday night to leave us with a nice weekend. Saturday in particular will feel nice, with lower humidity and noticeably cooler temperatures. That means highs in the 70s. Sunday will start off coolish, but you'll notice a bit of warmth and humidity creep in during the afternoon as high temperatures top 80 degrees.

The forecast for tomorrow's storm risk will certainly evolve and change, so of course I'll have an update tomorrow morning.