Today's Iffy Vermont Severe Weather Forecast

Forecasts for severe weather haven't changed much from
yesterday. Slight chance of severe storms in yellow,
just a marginal, slight chance in dark green. 

UPDATE 1 PM FRIDAY

Things so far seem to be playing out as expected, with the worst of the scattered storms today appearing to target central and southern Vermont, along with much of central and southwestern New England, with parts of New Hampshire and Maine getting in on the act.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center said they'd likely issue a severe thunderstorm watch for an area encompassing most of southern New England, the southeastern half of Vermont and large swaths of New Hampshire and Maine. 

Giving hints to what might be to come, a fairly strong line of storms went through southern and central Vermont late this morning and early this afternoon.

One storm has prompted a severe thunderstorm warning around White River Junction. The National Weather Service said the storm could generate strong, damaging winds.

Radar imagery indicated that storm was rotating, but so far not enough to produce any kind of spin up tornado. 

Another severe thunderstorm warning for winds of up to 60 mph just went up for Bennington County as of this writing, 12:50 p.m. 

Other lines and clusters of storms should form this afternoon and move west to east across Vermont. The air, as expected, is more stable in northern Vermont, so if any severe storms develop there, they'd be very few and far between. 

Up north, you might get lightning and some downpours, but I'm not overly bullish on much north of a Middlebury to Wells River line. However, I did notice at 12:55 a rapidly developing line of storms over northeastern New York, probably heading toward Franklin County, Vermont. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

There might or might not be severe storms in Vermont today. 

Chances are at least a few towns will get slammed by strong, possibly damaging winds, but the question is, how widespread will this be?  

Working in favor of storms are some fairly strong winds aloft, which also change direction with height. 

We expect a fairly good contrast between warm temperatures near the surface and much cooler readings aloft. That helps thunderstorms develop. 

The timing of an approaching cold front is pretty good, too. It'll come through this evening, giving a chance for strong storms to form ahead of the front.  

Clouds and rain this morning could, maybe, stymie some of the storms this afternoon.  A warm front was lifting through Vermont early this morning, accompanied by lots of showers and maybe some rumbles of thunder. 

If these showers don't move out fast enough, or leave lots of debris clouds behind overhead, that would limit, but not stop the severe weather threat. But if some sun can come out in the increasingly humid air today, that would boost the chances of strong to severe storms. 

With all that said, the forecast hasn't changed much from yesterday. The best chance of seeing some severe storms this afternoon are south of Route 2. The biggest threat would be from damaging wind gusts. Most of Vermont is still under slight risk of severe storms, level two of five in the threat scale. 

We still have a very, very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief spin up tornado. That's if any supercells can form out ahead of any lines of storms that develop. 

In the end, we'll probably wind up with a handful of reports of wind damage in a few towns in Vermont. Of course, it's impossible to tell in advance which towns. I don't think there will be any real trouble with local flash floods. The rain will come down torrentially with some of these storms. But, they will be moving right along, so it probably won't rain enough in any one spot to trigger trouble. 

You'll just have to pay attention to the skies and any warnings the National Weather Service might issue. Be ready to duck into a sturdy building at any time this afternoon and evening if you see dark clouds approach, hear thunder or receive a warning or special weather statement. 

It's not a good day to go out on the lake or take a hike. You can do that during this weekend, when the weather is going to be absolutely gorgeous. Instead, stay close to places where you can shelter from a storm. 

Saturday will actually be a bit on the cool side. It is almost September after all. Most of us will stay in the low to mid 70s under sunny skies.  The sun will continue all day Sunday, but you'll notice it warming up again. 

After a brief spell of very warm and humid weather (Again!) early in the week, it looks like it will turn cool again. We're almost ready to put a fork in summer.