September 11 Weather Was Eerily Similar To 25 Years Ago; Coolest Morning This Fall, Heavy Rain To Miss Vermont

On September 11, 2001 Hurricane Erin was moving northward
 500 miles off the East Coast. Had a cold front arrived a 
day later, the hurricane might have hit the East Coast.
And if it did, would it have prevented the terrorist 
attack?  We can only guess. 

The weather on Saturday, September 11, 2026 was eerily similar to that of that tragic day 25 years ago. 

It was gorgeous, sunny, a bit breezy with some of the first hints of autumn coolness in the air. 

I don't mean to trivialize that horrible day a quarter century ago, and please don't take it that way. But although the weather yesterday was almost exactly the same  as September 11, 2001, the weather set up was very different than it was 25 years ago. 

And the weather situation that terrible day brings up some big what ifs.

Let me explain: 

On September 10, 2001 a cold front swept through the northeastern United States. It caused some heavy thunderstorms in New York City.  Artist Monika Bravo took photos of the dramatic skies through windows on the 92nd floor.  These were just about the last photos of a view from inside the iconic twin towers.

That cold front helped shove Hurricane Erin away from the East Coast. It was about 500 miles offshore during the September 11 attacks.  Hurricanes moving northward off the East Coast feature sinking air outside the western flank of the storms. Sinking air causes clear skies. Which is the main reason why New York City had such clear skies that September day. 

It all makes you wonder what would have happened if that cold front came a day later.  If the cold front was late, Hurricane Erin might have gone up the East Coast instead. A New York City hurricane would have been bad, but not nearly as bad as the terrorist attack.  

Would the hurricane have postponed the attack?  Long enough for law enforcement to get wind of the plot and stop it?  We'll never know. 

TODAY

The clear skies here in Vermont and in New York City yesterday had nothing to do with hurricanes. It was just a cool, clear high pressure system moving into the Northeast. 

That brisk high pressure system brought Vermont the coolest air of the season so far. It got down to at least 47 degrees in Burlington early today, ending a 98-day streak with temperatures continuously above 50 degrees. I haven't done a complete review, but it appears to be the second longest such streak on record. The only longer streak I could immediately find was 106 days in 2023

Elsewhere in Vermont, most places had low temperatures this morning in the low 40s. Lyndonville was down to 38 degrees. Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York, got down to 31 degrees. That makes me think that the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom might have had a light frost. Tis the season.

The cold high pressure is moving off to the east now. That'll set up some south winds. Combined with sunshine, that should boost this afternoon's temperatures well into the 70s. Another gorgeous September day.

SUNDAY

Vermont still needs a nice, soaking rain. And it's going to rain Sunday into Monday. But most of us won't have a soaker. 

A small, wet storm is prompting flood alerts in the Mid-Atlantic states today. That wet system will dump heavy rain around New York City and southern New England tonight and early Sunday. The three southern New England states look like they'll get at least an inch or two of rain. 

This will brush far southern Vermont. Places like Bennington and Brattleboro could get at least a half inch of rain out of this. That early morning rain could reach as far as the Canadian border, but up there, it will hardly amount to anything at all. Maybe a tenth of an inch of rain if they're lucky. 

Meanwhile, a cold front will be approaching from the west with its own batch of showers and thunderstorms. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has pretty much all of Vermont in a marginal risk of severe storms. 

Those storms depend on whether skies manage to partly clear in the late morning and afternoon. If it does clear up, a few storms could get a bit strong. If it stays cloudy, it'll just be showers with maybe a rumble of thunder.

Whatever happens, it'll be pretty warm, with highs well into the 70s to near 80s. The showers will continue into Sunday evening. 

Though rainfall will be variable, with maybe a few spots getting a good soaking. But most of us should receive less than a half inch of rain. Many of us should only see a quarter inch of rain.  It's still not too late for the forecast to change, so we'll see.

MONDAY

Another big, brisk high pressure system, almost a carbon copy of Saturdays, will blow in on Monday.  It'll be a sunny, cool, breezy day.  It'll stay  under 70 degrees everywhere except maybe the lower Connecticut River valley. 

TUESDAY

It'll start quite cool, even a little cooler than it was this morning. I wouldn't be surprised if the coldest hollows have some frost, but most of us shouldn't worry, as lows for most of Vermont will range from 38 to 45 degrees. The usual patchy fog will sock in the river valleys. 

The afternoon will warm up into the low 70s.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

We're still looking at the fast air flow across the northern United States. So the forecast gets difficult, as timing fronts and high pressure systems is tricky.  The first front, Tuesday night, looks like something of a nothing burger, with light showers at most. Beyond that, it's a roll of the dice. 

Thursday Afternoon Erin Update: Coastlines Keep Getting Battered As Storm Begins To Move Away

Hurricane Erin well off the East Coast this afternoon.
It's still huge in size

Hurricane Erin has been doing its dirty work from a distance, as expected. 

It has stayed more than 200 miles offshore of North Carolina on its closest approach earlier today. It's now heading further away, heading northeast out to sea.   

At 5 p.m. Hurricane Erin was about 370 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and booking it northeastward. Top winds were 100 mph, but a weakening trend has started. 

Even so, tides, storm surges and battering waves are continuing along the East Coast. We've been talking about the storm's immense size, and that's what is driving coastal residents batty from Miami to St. John's, Newfoundland. 

The problem isn't going away soon. 

In a number of areas along the East Coast some of the worst surges and waves will hit with this evening's high tide. 

Tropical storm and storm surge warnings were still in effect this afternoon in North Carolina. Coastal flood warnings are in effect until Saturday in New Jersey, with the highest tide of them all expected this evening

Tides at Cape May, New Jersey and Lewes, Delaware are forecast to be the highest since an intense winter nor'easter in 2016, Texas meteorologist and hurricane expert Matt Lanza said,

All the way up into New England, coastal flood, high surf and wind advisories are flying through tomorrow at least. In addition to the rough water, winds in places like Block Island, Nantucket and Provincetown could gust to 50 mph. 

Basically all beaches along the U.S. East Coast are closed to swimming because the waves and rip currents are too dangerous. We don't know when they will all reopen. It depends on when the seas calm down. 

The process might be slow. Even as Erin departs, a new tropical system seems to want to form hot on the hurricane's heels. The new storm will not be nearly as strong or as huge as Erin, but it will probably keep seas agitated all the way to the East Coast. 

The epicenter of the East Coast Erin chaos was - as everybody anticipated - Cape Hatteras/The Outer Banks of North Carolina.  The only way in or out is Route 12 and that shut down  because of water, deep sand washed onto the road and debris, according to Dare County, North Carolina officials.

I haven't seen news yet that the two houses most vulnerable to collapsing into the sea at Rodanthe, North Carolina have actually done so, but the event is still ongoing. Media reports this afternoon described the houses as "on the verge of collapse."

There's also lots of images of flooded streets, and waves eroding dunes or blasting beneath houses perched on pilings. 

The winds weren't too bad out on Cape Hatteras, all things considered. The highest gusts at Hatteras Mitchell Field at 43 mph. Only 0.03 inches of rain fell there. A U.S. Coast Guard station in Hatteras reported a gust of 53 mph. 

Lanza, the Texas meteorologists, also found an interesting and dangerous effect of Hurricane Erin up in Canada. It's super dry in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. 

High pressure on the northwest flank of hurricanes usually has very dry air and that's the case up in Atlantic Canada. The contrast between that high pressure and offshore Erin is producing gusty winds up there, so now the fire danger is quite high. 

Even here in the Green Mountain State, that same dry high pressure, the recent lack of rain and northeast breezes created in part by distance Erin have created yet another day of high fire danger in Vermont. 

Don't Be Fooled By Hurricane Erin's "Weakening" East Coast. It's Now Gaining A Little And Shoreline Still In For A Battering

Hurricane Erin of the Southeast U.S. coast this 
morning. Its classic symmetrical shape and eye are
a sign it has a chance to keep restrengthening for
awhile as it passed by North Carolina. 

As of late this morning, Hurricane Erin has stopped its slow strength decline and is starting to gain wind speed again. 

At 11 a.m, top winds were at 110 mph, which is reversal from a trend we saw Tuesday. 

Erin's top wind speed has slowly been winding down. Top winds were at 125 mph Tuesday morning, 110 mph by noon yesterday, 105 mph last evening and 100 mph early this morning .

The central air pressure of Erin, which had been rising, is now falling, another sign that it's beginning to strengthen again. 

Strong upper level winds and a gulp of dry air were disrupting Erin on Tuesday, which led to its weakening trend.

Those strong upper level winds have waned and Hurricane Erin began regaining its organization overnight and early today. 

Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center think Erin will continue restrengthening today, probably achieving top winds of 120 mph off the southeastern United States coast. 

Starting tomorrow morning, upper level winds over Erin will get strong again, so the storm should start weakening again as accelerates northeastward in the open Atlantic far off the coasts of New England and Nova Scotia Thursday and Friday.  

Whether it gets stronger or not, or by how much is sort of besides the point. The storm is so large in size that it's generated a lot of big waves that have already started crashing into the U.S. East Coast.  Dangerous ocean waves are extending 1,000 or so miles from Hurricane Erin's center. 

U,S, COASTLINE BATTERING

Even though Erin is staying far offshore tropical storm force winds - 39 mph or more - extend 265 miles from the hurricane's center. That means places like the Outer Banks of North Carolina and  probably Cape Cod and the islands in Massachusetts will have those winds, even though the storm will stay far offshore. 

A dozen East Coast states have some sort of advisory or warning regarding Hurricane Erin, Tropical storm and coastal flood warnings are in effect for the shores of  North Carolina, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.  

The main United States focus is on Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, where water started washing over Route 12 at high tide Tuesday - far in advance of Hurricane Erin. Route 12 is basically the only way on or off the Outer Banks.  The overwash, storm surge flooding and huge waves on the Outer Banks gets worse with every high tide cycle as Erin approaches, and will peak tomorrow.

Once Route 12 is blocked, it could take days to clear enough sand and do enough repairs to make the road passable, 

Charleston, South Carolina is another trouble spot, which might be surprising since Hurricane Erin will miss that city by such a wide margin.  But due to sea level rise due to climate change, the Charleston area now floods frequently in storms.

High tide in Charleston today is forecast to bring moderate, almost borderline major coastal flooding. 

Further north above the Outer Banks, pretty substantial coastal flooding is expected in resort towns like Virginia Beach, Virginia, Ocean City, Maryland, Bethany and Rohoboth beaches in Delaware and the Jersey Shore.

In all these areas, coastal roads will become impassable and officials are worried about damage to vulnerable structures. To nobody's surprise, beaches are closed to swimmers. Even before Erin, the Jersey Shore has endured several incidents. Just last week, one person died and six others were rescued amid rip tides in Seaside Heights, New Jersey.

In Massachusetts,  Nantucket officials said all beaches on the island's south shore are now closed because of dangerous surf and rip currents caused by Hurricane Erin. Locals told reporters Tuesday the water was already too rough to safely swim in, 

Rough seas and some coastal problems are likely in Atlantic Canada late this week and the weekend. By Monday or Tuesday, Erin will be in the North Atlantic and transition to a non-tropical system that could cause problems in Ireland by Tuesday. 

 OTHER STORMS

The National Hurricane Center is watching two other areas in the Atlantic Ocean that could develop into tropical storms. 

One disturbance is roughly following Erin's path and could develop into a tropical depression or storm north of the northern Leeward Islands.  Early indications are this storm, if it develops, will curve northward in the Atlantic and miss the United States by a wide margin. 

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring another disturbance in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  At the moment at least, if this thing develops into a tropical storm, it could be short-lived as strong upper level winds wreck it.

But even after those winds break it apart, this disturbance could eventually redevelop closer to the Caribbean in a week or two 

 

Hurricane Erin Update: It Maintains Its Power. North Carolina Evacuations As Storm Surge, Tropical Storm Watch Issued

This afternoon's satellite view of Hurricane Erin,
Tropical storm and storm surge watches just
went up for coastal North Carolina. 

Hurricane Erin continues to cause a lot of headaches and worries, especially for a storm that will not make landfall.  

As of 5 p.m. today, Hurricane Erin's top winds were still at 140 mph, up from 125 mph on Sunday. It was catered about 815 miles, south, southeast of Cape Hatteras and moving toward the northwest at 10 mph.

A tropical storm and storm surge watch were issued late this afternoon for much of Cape Hatteras/the Outer Banks as winds there should reach at least 39 mph when Erin makes its closest approach Wednesday night and Thursday.

To nobody's surprise, evacuation orders went up for the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Hurricane Erin will not make direct landfall in the United States. But the power of Erin, and its expanding wind field, will stir up enormous waves.

Under a Dare County, North Carolina emergency order, tourists to the outer banks were told to start getting out by 10 a.m. today. Permanent residents need to start leaving by 8 a.m. tomorrow.  Long lines of cars could be seen today on Route 12, heading north off Hatteras Island to destinations inland. 

The problem for North Carolina is that Hurricane Erin is already larger in size than most hurricanes, and it's getting even bigger.  As of late this afternoon, hurricane force winds of 74 mph or more extended out 80 miles from the center and those tropical storm winds go out 230 miles from the center. 

Although Erin is generally moving in the direction forecasters have said for days it would, the hurricane will pass a little closer to Cape Hatteras than meteorologists thought a few days ago. So that makes the impacts a little worse than originally thought. 

All these factors mean waves of 15 to 20 or more feet are forecast to slam into the Outer Banks, which would cause terrible erosion, flooding and destruction of coastal homes and other buildings,

The only real way in or out of the Outer Banks is Route 12. Emergency managers are sure the road will be inundated and impassable as Erin blows by.   If anybody stays behind, emergency responders won't be able to reach them. That's why they're kicking everybody out of the Outer Banks. 

In Rodanthe, North Carolina, at least two homes are in grave danger of collapsing into the ocean when Erin passes through. More than a dozen homes have fallen into the ocean since 2020, including six last year. 

Sea level rise and increasingly ferocious storms due to climate change are at least partly to blame for all this. Additionally the land in the region is slowly sinking as well.

There are unconfirmed reports of 50 rescues at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina today already due to high surf and rip currents. 

Erin might be weakening a tiny bit late this afternoon, thanks to some dry air the hurricane gulped in today from the north. But the weakening will either stop, or be so slow as to not make a difference on how it affects North Carolina, or anyplace else for that matter. 

Tropical storm conditions are already hitting or soon will hit the Turks and Caicos, and much of the Bahamas. It'll also eventually get stormy in Bermuda. 

In Puerto Rico, the outer rain bands of Erin were enough to bring winds and rains heavy enough to cut power to 50,000 customers. The Virgin Islands also dealt with gales and flooding Sunday.

Dangerous surf, rip currents and waves are expected up and down the entire United States East Coast and most of Canada's east coast as well this week.  

 

Hurricane Erin Slightly Weaker But Still Mighty. Also, Ignore The Hype Machine

Satellite view of Hurricane Erin just after dawn this
morning. You can't really see the eye as it's going
through what is known as an eyewall replacement
cycle. The hurricane is reorganizing. 

Monster Hurricane Erin as of this morning continues to behave itself about as well as a powerful hurricane can.  

It is still resolutely on course to avoid direct hits on any land, though of course the storm will continue to cause its share of trouble.  

Hurricane Erin has calmed down ever so slightly from its flashy strengthening on Saturday. You'll remember it was an extreme hurricane - Category 5 with top winds of 160 mph.

Early this morning, Erin was down to a top wind speed of 125 mph, the National Hurricane Center tells us.  That's still wicked dangerous, but it's no longer quite at the top of the scale. 

Last night, Hurricane Erin looks like it is going through  began to go through what is known as an eyewall replacement cycle. You might be familiar with the eye of a hurricane, that small clear center surrounded by the storm's most powerful winds.

That circle of powerful winds around the center of a hurricane is called the eyewall. The eye of a hurricane.  An eyewall replacement cycle is when it sort of collapses and forms a new eyewall, often larger than the original.

When this happens, a hurricane will usually weaken. They can re-strengthen after the cycle is complete. That might happen with Erin, but predicting the strength of a hurricane is even harder than forecasting its path. 

Hurricane Erin continues more or less on its predicted path, says the National Hurricane Center.  Its turn to the north might be a little more gradual than some previous forecasts, but it's happening.

The hurricane is getting larger in size, so islands pretty far from its center will see some rough weather. 

The Turks and Caicos Islands are under a tropical storm warning and the eastern Bahamas are under a tropical storm watch because the outer bands of Hurricane Erin will lash those places as it passes by to the east.  

AVOIDING THE HYPE

Ignore any clickbait you'll see on social media regarding Hurricane Erin. It's not going to hit Florida. And at worse, it's only going to give a glancing blow to North Carolina's Outer Banks. 

There will probably be some big waves and dangerous rip currents from Hurricane Erin on Florida's east coast,  and the rest of the U.S. East Coast for that matter, but that's about it. 

Floridians have some very understandable PTSD when it comes to hurricanes, given the storms they've had in recent years.  Telling everyone online that Florida is going to get hit by Erin is great for clicks and revenue, but pretty cruel and unethical when you know that's not going to happen. 

To be clear, my dear Floridians: Don't worry about Erin unless you plan to go swimming at Daytona Beach or something like that. 

If you want the best, most accurate forecasts about storms like Erin, go to the National Hurricane Center. 

Almost all the information I share about Hurricane Erin, or any tropical storm or hurricane I mention in this here blog thingy comes almost completely from the National Hurricane Center.

That's by far the most reliable source of information and forecasts for any tropical storm. Yes, Trump budget cuts have hurt the National Hurricane Center, but they're still doing fantastic work keeping us safe with their storm forecasts. 

Other great and reliable sources of hurricane information are The Weather Channel and a lot of local meteorologists near where you live. If you're in Florida, especially near Miami, pay attention to John Morales, who is really just about the top hurricane forecaster out there. If you're in Texas, especially the Houston area, rely on Matt Lanza, he's also top of the line. 

Lanza has a tropical weather blog called The Eyewall, which is a must-read for anyone worried about hurricanes and tropical storms. 

Now-Category 5 Hurricane Erin Stuns With Incredibly Fast Intensification

Satellite view of Category 5 Hurricane Erin this 
afternoon. You can barely make out a pinpoint little
eye in this view. A tiny eye like this is what you'
usually see in the very strongest hurricanes. 

 Hurricane Erin stunned meteorologist and storm watchers today with one of the fastest intensifications ever seen in such a storm in the Atlantic Ocean. 

At last check shortly at mid-afternoon,  Hurricane Erin was churning about 230 miles east, northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico with top sustained winds at a crushing 160 mph. 

Within less than 24 hours Erin went from a tropical storm with 70 mph winds to this 160 mph monster.  Its central pressure went from 996 millibars to 917 millibars. 

Preliminary data suggests Hurricane Erin intensified faster than any August hurricane on record in the Atlantic Ocean. Category 5 hurricanes are relatively rare, but have become increasingly less so.  

Also, Category 4 Atlantic Ocean storms are even more rare.  If you do get a Cat 5, they usually hit in September, the peak of hurricane season. 

"It's our new reality. Records every year. Every month. Intensification rates beyond imagination. Simply unreal," Florida meteorologist and hurricane expert John Morales said on the social media site Threads. 

The reason Morales is so worried is - you guessed it - climate change.  Hurricanes have gotten into the habit of intensifying super fast in recent years.  Climate change has warmed up oceans to make them jet fuel for hurricanes. The overall atmosphere is warmer than it once was

So, hurricanes like Beryl, Milton, Helene, Michael, Ida, Laura and others in recent years all blew up literally overnight to Category 4 and 5 monsters. 

As CBS News explains:

"Since April, 2023, global sea surface temperatures have been hotter than any period on record, and hotter oceans fuel stronger storms and amplify evaporation, strengthening hurricane winds and increasing the rain they hold. 

Storms that ramp up quickly complicate forecasting for meteorologists and make it harder for government agencies to plan for emergencies."

ERIN'S FUTURE

The fantastic news is that nobody is going to have to plan for an emergency that involves a direct hit by Hurricane Erin. That's a happy miracle. 

Erin should start to curve north pretty soon, eventually moving northwestward, east of the Bahamas Monday, then northward and northeastward far off the U.S. East Coast during the week. 

The hurricane's seeming allergy to crashing onto a shore somewhere great, but it's still a danger to landlubbers. 

The fact that Hurricane Erin is so ferocious and is expanding in size is bad news for some Caribbean Islands, and plenty of other places. The northern Leeward Islands, parts of the U.S. and British Virgin islands face winds possibly up to 70 mph and flooding rains as the storm passes to their north. 

Once Erin is off the East Coast of the United States, wind gusts of 39 mph or more - tropical storm strength, could stretch to 1,000 miles wide, from just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast to far to the southeast of Bermuda.

As it moves north and northeast next week, Hurricane Erin will probably reach its peak intensity soon. 

By tomorrow it will level off, then ever so slowly weaken but remain a formidable storm in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. We can expect several days of huge surf, rip currents and possibly some coastal flooding all up and down the East Coast of the United States and on into Canada.  

Hurricane Erin To Become Season's First Big Powerhouse. Thankfully Likely A Swing And A Miss

Visible satellite photo of Hurricane Erin this afternoon.
It's continuing to organize very efficiently and is
forecast to become a Category 4 or even 5 monster.

 What was Tropical Storm Erin, struggling over cool waters and dusty skies far out in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, moved into a more favorable place for hurricanes, so the storm obliged.  

As of today, it's Hurricane Erin. Its top winds were 75 mph as of mid-afternoon, just barely strong enough to be a Category 1. 

But Erin is moving into an area that's very friendly to hurricanes. There won't be much in the way of upper level winds that would disrupt the monster thunderstorms powering Erin. 

 It's also going to move over water that is at near record warmth. Warm water is jet fuel for hurricanes, so you're going to see this storm really ramp up. 

It looks like Erin will follow the frightening trend we've increasingly seen in hurricanes over the past few years. It goes from practically a nothing burger to scary top tier howler almost in an instant.

Scientists have been concerned about this trend.  Climate change appears to be making it easier for hurricanes to intensify at warp speed.   

The only hindrance to Erin strengthening is that it might ingest some dry air and dust to its north, which would disrupt its efforts to become big and bad just a little.

The official forecast has Erin with top wind speeds of 145 mph by Monday, making it a scary Category 4 storm,. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets even stronger than that.  Some hurricane forecasters are also saying that, so it could be a Cat 5 before all is said and done.

The great news is that - so far at least - forecasts tell us Erin is going to thread the needle between islands and coastlines, and stands a strong chance of never directly smashing into land. 

The current thinking is Erin will be north of the Leeward Islands tomorrow, well north of Puerto Rico ad the Dominican Republic Monday while it turns north east of the Bahamas. 

A weakness in the summertime Bermuda High seems to be coming to the rescue. Had the high pressure remained strong, Erin would continue west and plow into Florida or somewhere on the East Coast. 

Instead, almost all forecast models take big, bad Erin northward between Bermuda and the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then curving toward the northeast, passing far to the south and east of New England. 

Phew!

We still face dangers from Erin, however.  Not only will Erin be strong, it will be big and fat, so its effects will stretch far from its eye. 

 A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northern Leeward Islands, since Erin will be passing not that far to the north on Saturday. 

Hurricane Erin will generate large swells and rips currents that will make coastal areas dangerous from near Miami all the way up the east coasts of the United States and Canada as far north as Labrador. I imagine we'll see videos of coastal erosion, submerged shoreline roads, dramatic swimming rescues and maybe a few vulnerable beach homes and cottages falling into the waves and disintegrating. 

We'll also have to watch this thing carefully, as there's still a chance it could nudge a little further westward than today's forecasts are telling us.  If Erin does wander a little further west, it could produce at least tropical storm conditions in the Bahamas and eventually the Outer Banks of North Carolina. 

For my Vermont readers, Hurricane Erin will have no effect on us.