Warm Winters Are Shutting Down Alpine Ski Areas In Europe

A French ski area closed and abandoned because winters
no longer provide enough snow to make many
ski resorts viable. Photo by Thomas
Valentin/Guardian 

Europe just got over what has become in recent years a rare blast of winter weather. 

It's only been a week and a half of chilly, snowy weather, and who knows what the rest of the winter will be like over there.  

Cold, snowy spells in Europe's ski areas are getting more and more unreliable, this month notwithstanding. 

The warmer, climate changed world means that the European ski industry in suffering. And in many cases, disappearing. 

As the Guardian tells us: 

"In France, there are today 113 ski lifts totaling nearly 40 miles in length that have been abandoned, nearly three-quarters of them in protected areas. It is not just ski infrastructure. The Mountain Wilderness association estimates that there are more than 3,000 abandoned structures dotted around French mountains, slowly degrading Europe's richest wild terrain. This includes military, industrial and forestry waste, such as old cables, bits of barbed wire, fencing and old machinery."

Some closed resorts look like they were hit by a neutron bomb. Everything is still the way it was left last year, or a few years ago, but all the people are gone 

The Céüze 2000 ski resort in the southern French Alps closed for the season at the end of the winter, 2018. Pretty much everyone assumed it would open the following winter. 

But it didn't. Six years after that 2018 spring closing, a yellowed newspaper dated March 8, 2018 remains on a table next a half-empty body of water. A staff scheduled remained pinned on a wall.

The resort needed at least three months per year of decent skiing to at least break even.  That had pretty much stopped happening. 

The resort had been open for 85 years. But it is now one of many ghost ski areas in the French Alps and elsewhere. The Guardian reported that 186 French ski resorts have closed since winter snows began getting unreliable in the 1990s. By the 2010s, a few winter nights were as warm as summer nights should be. 

France now has 113 ski lifts totaling almost 40 miles that have been abandoned. 

One major problem with the shuttered ski areas is pollution. Equipment rusts and that rust runs into the ground. Insulation and other material from deteriorating buildings scatters around the landscape.

The Guardian says in France, the law requires ski lifts to be removed if they are no longer in use, but the law applies to ski lifts built after 2017.

However, many of the older defunct ski areas in France might be left to rot into the ground. 

The problem isn't limited to Europe. As CBC tell us, more than half of the ski resorts in North America have disappeared since the 1970s. There's a lot of reasons for that, but one of them is climate change that have made winters in many areas less reliable. 

In the United States, the average ski season between 2000 and 2019 shortened by five to seven days, according to Earth.org. Those numbers could double or triple by 2050. 

Here in Vermont, skiing is hugely important to the state's economy. Last year was good after a rough start. This year so far has been quite good, too. But in general, winters are getting warmer, which melts the snow almost as fast as it can fall.

At least as measured in Burlington, seven of the top ten warmest winters have occurred since 2001, and the top four since 2016. Vermont ski areas have invested heavily in snow making to recover more quickly from the warm spells. 

Will that be enough, or will Vermont and other Northeast ski areas go the way of the French Alps?

Not immediately, for sure. But eventually, the ever-rising global temperatures don't really bode well for the future of skiing in many places around the world. 

 

Vermont Sunday Morning: Back To The Slowly Deepening Snow Pack Amid Cold December

The next round of snow this afternoon and tonight
looks light and fluffy, but will add to the deep snow
in the mountains. As you can see in this National
Weather Service map, many places in northern
Vermont can expect a good two inches of new
snow by tomorrow morning, while southern
Vermont valleys get very little. 

It snowed a little again last night in much of northern Vermont, part of a slowly deepening snowpack that has been really piling up in the Green Mountains since early November. 

Most places got an inch or less last night, with a few places receiving nothing at all. But a couple more inches hit the central and northern ski areas.

The difference between valley and mountain in terms of snow cover is always wide. This year, it's extreme. 

In the Champlain Valley, Burlington has had 13.3 inches of snow this season as of yesterday, which is 4.4 inches above normal. Respectable enough, but some of the Green Mountains are absolutely bonkers with snow.   

Jay Peak is always basically a snow globe, but this year it's ridiculous. The ski resort there reports 22 inches of new snow in the first week of December for a total so far of 141 inches. 

Even if you factor in ski resort snow report inflation, they've had an impressive early winter so far. Jay Peak has  definitely dropped the warning, "early season conditions exist" from their snow report, since conditions are more like midwinter.

Up on Mount Mansfield, there was four feet of snow at the measuring stake just below the summit. That's close to a record depth for this time of year. On average, snow cover at the Mount Mansfield stake does't reach four feet until late January. 

Between the persistent cold weather that's been great for snowmaking and the manna from the snow gods, this is Vermont's best start to ski season in years, maybe even decades. 

NEXT UP

Coming up: A, little more snow. 

This afternoon will only make it into the 20s - maybe upper teens in the high elevations north. If you saw glimpses of sun this morning, that's it for bright skies today as that next wave of light snow moves in this afternoon.  

This will be another mostly northern Vermont thing, with two to as much as four inches of fluff overnight. Even northern valleys should get at least two inches of snow. Amounts will taper off once you get into the valleys in southern parts of the state. Those places will get a dusting at best.

The cold regime we've been enduring will continue big time as we start the week, too. Burlington - and numerous other valley towns - managed to sneak above freezing briefly Saturday. That was our big thaw, I guess.

The snow should pretty much end before dawn in most spots. But that new snow, and blowing snow, and temperatures plummeting into the single digits means we'll once again deal with a crappy morning commute on the roads Monday morning. I know. Sigh. 

Monday itself will be another frigid day as we only make it into the teens during the afternoon. That's about 20 degrees colder than average for this time of year.  Then, tomorrow night, it's back below zero for many of us. 

Tuesday looks quiet and cold, as temperatures recover into the 20s. 

The next storm comes along Wednesday. Again, it'll be a not-that-big affair. And since it's going by to our west, it'll push another brief squirt of warmer air into the region. By "warm" I mean near normal for this time of year. 

Since the warmer valleys might get into the 30s, some rain might mix in during the day. But the mountains will pretty much remain snow through the entire storm.

Starting Wednesday, a gigantic blast of Arctic air will come into the U.S., eventually affecting everyone north and east of a line from Montana to Georgia. 

Yesterday I mentioned we might get a second storm on Friday. It's beginning to look possible that the g huge gush of frigid air might be so strong that it would suppress that second storm to our south, and we'd miss out. It's a little soon to tell for sure. 

We do know that temperatures will be heading downhill later in the week once again. Plus, there will be disturbances in that icy air flow that will trigger more snow from time to time, especially in the northern Green Mountains. So the snow will continue to deepen in those mountains through the entire upcoming week. 

 

New Year's Eve Day: Vermont's Transition Back To Winter Starts Tonight With Tons Of Mountain Snow

The National Weather Service is still expected a ton more
snow over the next couple of days in the Green
Mountains and Adirondacks, and western New
York snow belt areas. Lower elevations will
get little, consisted with earlier forecasts. 

 It was actually a strangely electric New Year's Eve up and down the East Coast as lots of thunderstorms blossomed with a dynamic storm that's setting the stage for huge pattern shift toward winter for the eastern half to two thirds of the United States.  

Some of the storms from Virginia to southern Connecticut were strong to severe with wind damage and hail reported in many areas, especially in Virginia and West Virginia.  Lightning strikes were reported as far north as southern Vermont.

Aside from intense lake effect snows in the usual spots near the Great Lakes and some very deep snow near mountain summits in northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire, the initial cold spell won't be all that bad for early January. 

But it does look like the cold will intensify as we get into the second week of January. And possibly even get worse during the third week, but we don't know that for sure yet.  It looks like this won't be the type of mostly mild January many of us have gotten used to in the United States in recent years. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Here in the Green Mountain State, the initial wave of rain and snow in some spots, passed through overnight and this morning.  Away from the lower valleys, quite a few places in Vermont managed to get a coating of wet snow, with a  few inches up high in the mountains to start things off. 

Some places look like winter again already 

I'm also noticing some patches of dense fog, especially in the northern Champlain Valley, so visibility will be a problem at times on the roads even without much rain or snow midday. 

A bit of a lull was taking shape by mid morning, as a second storm began to form along the New England coast. This will be the one that will blast us all with a lot of wind, and bury the Green Mountains and Adirondacks in a lot of snow.

Sorry, valley dwellers, it still looks like the lowest elevations should mostly miss out on the snow.

Later this afternoon and evening, rain should redevelop in the valleys as the New England coastal storm takes hold. It'll be snow in the mountains, and that snow will reach the lowest elevations as we head into this evening.

That's the best chance for the Champlain and lower Connecticut Valleys to get at least a white coating. Also, if you have to get somewhere, I'd do it now, or by mid afternoon at the latest to avoid most of the snow and ice that might accumulate on the roads. 

As the storm comes to an almost stall over southeastern Quebec, we're still looking at that classic upslope snowstorm scenario in the Green Mountains.  Northwest winds will be so strong that the heavier snow will hit the western slopes and summits as usual, but also extend a little bit onto the eastern slopes. 

A winter storm warning is still up for the central and northern Green Mountains and a good portion of far northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain.  While most places in the winter storm warning zone can expect a good 6 to 14 inches of snow, some of the central and northern Green Mountains could really get plastered.

From about Sugarbush north, that means one to two feet of new snow on the ski areas, with two feet most likely around Jay Peak.

As I said last night, though, the snow and blowing snow will make it tough to actually get to the ski areas Thursday. While driving conditions won't be the worst ever in the valleys, expect whiteouts in spots in the mountains. 

Plus the wind might be strong enough to prompt lift holds on some of the ski areas.

Those winds will gust to 45 mph for many of us, and 50 to even 55 mph on the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. Combined with the snow, that could set off some power outages. 

Blustery, chilly weather should last for several days heading into early next week, with little new snow in the valleys, but periodic fluff bombs of light snow in the mountains almost daily.

Vermont Storm Over, High Elevation Snow Impresses, Lake Effect Leftovers To Add Bit More

Less than an inch of snow at my place in St. Albans,
Vermont, but still wintertime pretty after yesterday's
storm that dumped heavier amounts elsewhere in
the Green Mountain State. 

 The just departed snowstorm in Vermont turned out to be pretty impressive in the high elevations - and a yawner in some of the low spots. 

Totals I've seen so far are 17 inches in Mount Holly, 14 inches in Barnard and Ludlow; 12 inches in Plymouth and West Windsor and 11 inches in West Topsham.

Reports out of West Rutland show just how different higher elevations are from the valleys. A full 10 inches of new snow was measured at a 1,700-foot elevation on a hill above town. 

Then, judging from a convenient traffic camera on the valley floor in West Rutland (where most of the people in town live), it looks like there's only a couple inches of new snow. 

The Champlain Valley was rainy through most of the storm, with just a touch of snow at the end. Burlington reported no measurable snow - just a trace. If no measurable snow falls in Burlington today and tomorrow, this November will tie with five others as the least snowy on record with that trace total.

At my 620-foot elevation in St. Albans, a spot that's a wee bit colder because I'm away from the lake and a little higher, I managed just 0.6 inches. 

Roads in Vermont early this morning were still slick in some areas. Temperatures dipped below freezing in most spots, so any water and slush  left on roads froze. Take it easy heading into town for work or Christmas shopping this morning.

Or better yet, wait until later this morning when most of the roads should be just fine. Still, traffic cameras as of 7:30 a.m. show vast improvements over how things were on the highways during the storm. 

Power outages are still a problem in some areas. The heavy, wet snow brought down power lines and branches throughout the southeastern half of Vermont. 

The outages peaked at around 7:30 p.m. last evening, with roughly 9,400 Vermont homes and businesses without power. As of 6:30 a.m. today, that number had fallen to about 2,500.

This was also easily Vermont's wettest storm since at least late October, so the moisture it's providing will put a little dent in the drought. At least I hope.

Burlington has a solid 0.55 inches of precipitation, almost all rain. Bennington had 0.66 inches of rain and melted snow, so that's not bad. Springfield had a very nice inch of rain and melted snow.

So, with all the inconvenience it caused on the roads and such, this was a perfect early winter storm for Vermont.

The snow focused itself on mountains and ski resorts.  but at least partially spared valleys. That'll make cleanup easier for us valley dwellers, while the resorts can busy themselves grooming trails and giving their cash registers a nice early season workout. 

Even better, there's some ferocious lake effect snows gathering near Lakes Erie and Ontario in western New York (the subject of a separate post soon). The remnants of those lake effect storms will make their way to the Green Mountains over the next two or three days, starting this afternoon.

That means a few ski resorts might get a couple or a few inches of additional snow, while nothing more than light snow and scattered snow showers hit the valleys. 

A long spell of colder than average air is coming in for an extended stay as well, meaning most of whatever snow is on the ground-  especially in mid and high elevations - will stick around. 

Wednesday Evening Vermont Thanksgiving Storm Update: Getting A Little More Intense?

Wednesday evening snow prediction map. Projected
amounts have gone up some, but the high elevations
of southern and central Vermont are in the sweet spot
for heaviest snow. Looks like everyone in Vermont
will get at least a little, though. 

 A few changes to the forecast came up this afternoon that could make the long-hyped Thanksgiving storm a little wilder in at least parts of Vermont than first thought. 

The forecast track of the storm nudged just slightly northward compared to this morning's forecast. 

That could well put a band of especially heavy snow into parts of southern and central Vermont for a few hours Thursday afternoon.

The slight adjustment to the forecast would also put central Vermont ski areas in play for several inches of snow. And unlike this morning's predictions, the Champlain Valley now looks like it will get a little snow. Not much, but a little. 

The bottom line is depending on which part of Vermont you're in, the storm you experience will be far different than if you a Vermonter in another part of the state.

Details: 

The sweet spot still looks like the high elevations of southern Vermont.  There, heavy, wet snow will accumulate quickly, especially during the afternoon. 

That means roads in that part of the state could become nearly impassable at times. Power outages look like a good bet, and some back roads might be blocked by snow, and fallen branches and trees.

Meanwhile, people in nearby low elevations like Bennington and Brattleboro might wonder what all the fuss is about. 

The mid and high elevation heavy snow, or at least heavy-ish, now looks like it will extend to central Vermont. Yay! Sugarbush and Mad River Glen!

A classic November landscape in St. Albans on Wednesday
with shafts of sun and dark clouds mingling with
stick season. By tomorrow afternoon and evening, virtually
all of Vermont will have some snow on the ground,
and parts of central and southern Vermont will have a lot.

This storm has a boatload of moisture with it, so that's one reason for the heavy snow potential. It's also a quick mover, so this will be in an out quickly.

 Which is why the forecasts don't really call for one of those 20 inch blockbusters. But a foot of snow in some spot is not out of the question.

Things will go downhill in the morning, and start to clear up a few hours after dark Thanksgiving night. 

For the record, a winter storm warning is up for the two southernmost counties Vermont, east of Route 7 in Rutland County, east of Route 116 in Addison County, along with all of Windsor, Orange and Washington counties. 

Places under the winter storm warning can expect four to nine inches of snow, except locally more in higher elevations. Especially at places like Okemo and Mount Snow. 

A winter weather advisory is up for the rest of Vermont except Franklin and Grand Isle counties, where no particular alerts are up. The advisory zone should get one to four inches of new snow.

The Champlain Valley still looks like it'll have a lot of rain mixed in, but there should be a complete changeover to some snow in the later afternoon or evening. So many areas there will see their first accumulations of the season. Though it won't be spectacular.

Bottom Line

Expect highly variable travel conditions in Vermont all day Thanksgiving, but it will be mostly bad on the roads.  The higher you go up in elevation, the worse it will get. At times in central and southern Vermont, the snow will accumulate too quickly for road crews to really get on top  of it. 

The storm will probably peak from late morning to late afternoon or early evening. 

If you don't have to travel Thanksgiving day, don't. If you want to get to your Thanksgiving destination safely, try to get there by 7 a.m. tomorrow. 

If you want to leave, consider waiting until Friday morning to do so. By then, the storm will be out of our hair, and road crews will have had a chance to clean everything up. 

Power outages are most likely in mid and high elevations of southern and central Vermont and are most likely in the afternoon. 

For many in Vermont, this will be the biggest Thanksgiving snowstorm since the granddaddy of big humdinger Thanksgiving snows back in 1971. 

 

Floods, Thaw NOT Good For Vermont/New England Ski Areas And For Tourist Revenue

Flooding in Williston, Vermont Tuesday, part of which
was caused by snowmelt from mountains you see
in the background. Those mountains, and the ski
areas up there, need a return to winter fast, as the 
storm has also damaged prospect for crowds
during the important Christmas week holiday 

 The destructive flooding we had in Vermont was easily the worst aspect of the warm storm we endured this week. 

But there's another potentially substantial problem: We're on the cusp of an important holiday week that typically draws thousands to Vermont for winter sports. The bare ground, news of the flood and forecasts of continued warm weather aren't helping. 

Businesses need the tourist revenue, and Vermont needs the tax revenue.

Before this week, it seemed like the ski season would be off to a good start. 

Those heavy, wet snowstorms in late November and early December that kept causing power outages had a silver lining: They built up a base of snow at ski resorts and other places that host winter activities.

The weather was warmer than normal, but cold enough for resorts to also make snow. 

Then Monday's storm hit.

SKI AREA DAMAGE

The flooding caused a lot of damage, but I haven't heard of any of our major ski areas suffering major physical losses.  So we're lucky in that regard here in Vermont. 

Some New Hampshire and Maine resorts DID suffer damage. That there would be this much New England flood destruction in December is uncharted territory

The road leading up to the Sunday River ski area in Maine was entirely washed out by the storm.  That cut off the resort, and left some people stranded at condos at Sunday River.

A temporary bridge was being brought in to reopen access. But it will be a challenge. The ground floor of some condos at Sunday River reportedly suffered flood damage. 

Sunday River officials said they would reopen as soon as temporary repairs and snow making equipment could be brought up and running again, but they had no timetable. 

In New Hampshire, Loon Mountain, Attitash, Canmore and Wildcat Mountain were all closed on Tuesday due to flooding. They are expected to open soon. 

VERMONT RESORTS

Here in Vermont, Mad River Glen was forced to close temporarily. It sits above the hard-hit Mad River Valley and suffered from water runoff and a loss of snow.  However, Mad River Glen reopened today with freshly groomed trails.  

Jay Peak and Killington, and probably other ski areas in Vermont, closed during the height of the storm Monday due to heavy rains and high wind, but they are now operating normally. 

As temperatures dropped Tuesday, the resorts surely fired up their snow making machines. At least the snow making operations have plentiful supply of water at the moment. 

Resorts are putting the best spin on this: "We are continuing to make snow and groom out our terrain nicely, so we expect conditions to get better and better as we make our way through the week," Killington Resort said on its web site on Wednesday. 

In Stowe, damage to a privately owned culvert reduced Route 108, which leads to the resort, down to one lane.  As of Wednesday, a temporary traffic signal had been installed to deal with the problem.  The resort, like pretty much all of them in Vermont, reported it was making snow and grooming trails to fix damage from the storm.

Slightly below normal temperatures are forecast today and tomorrow, which will favor snow making. It'll warm up over the holiday weekend, but most resorts will still be able to make snow.

The forecast turns problematic toward the middle of next week. As it stands now, it looks like we might see another rain storm. It won't be nearly the scale of what we had Monday, but any rain would dampen skier enthusiasm at the very least. 

Another issue is publicity.  I'm sure the vast majority of avid skiers know that northern New England was hit by a major December storm and flood, so that could discourage people from coming here. 

Meanwhile, cross country ski centers and snowmobile trails surely took a hit. First of all, there's no snow. So no skiing and no snowmobiling. Additionally, the flooding might have caused some damage to snowmobile trails, just after the Vermont  Association of Snow Travelers spend months fixing the trails after the summer floods. 

I haven't heard  how much damage there is to VAST trails, but it's likely not as serious as it was in the summer.

There's always hope for the rest of the winter sports season, of course. It could turn gloriously snowy in January and February for all we know, and that could make the overall winter of 2023-24 not so bad after all.  

Some long range forecasts call for winter to finally arrive at or just after the New Year, but I'll believe it when I see it. 

 

 

Vermont Snow Forecast Mostly On Track, But Bust Potential In Valleys

The National Weather Service snow forecast map, updated
early this morning, isn't changed much since yesterday,
but there is a bust potential on projected accumulations
in some of the warmer valleys.

UPDATE 1:30 PM FRIDAY

So far, this is, kind of as expected turning  into a tale of two very different storms in Vermont.

West of the Green Mountains, especially in the valleys, it's just been light snow, mixed with a little rain at times. Much of the snow is melting as it hits.'

Road conditions aren't bad in western Vermont at all.

Meanwhile, at most of the higher elevations, say above 900 feet or so, this is a bonafide, strong snowstorm.

This is especially true on the east slopes of the Green Mountains. 

So far, 8.5 inches have been reported at Rochester, 7.5 inches in Sharon and 7 inches at White River Junction.

State highway web cams show some pretty lousy road conditions in these areas. The snow, again as expected, is wet and heavy, so power issues are increasing. It looks like about 2,000 customers, mostly in southeastern Vermont, were without power as of 1:30 p.m. That number was increasing.

Things will probably get worse as we go through the afternoon and evening. The wet snow will continue in the mid and higher elevations, which will further strain power lines.  There are still signs that snowfall will increase in the lower elevations of western Vermont as we head further into the afternoon and evening

That means the snow will accumulate even there. Road conditions would deteriorate as this happens.  If enough wet snow falls by tonight, there could be some power outage issues in western Vermont as well.

I'll do a full update late this afternoon or very early this evening

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

Before dawn broke this morning, the previous forecast for our long awaited snowstorm is more or less the same as those issued yesterday, but I also noticed some hemming and hawing with this forecast, especially in Vermont's valleys.  

I'm seeing the potential for a bust forecast in some of the warmer valleys. Don't give up on the snow yet! 

But there are factors that MIGHT limit accumulations. This will still be a nice high elevation dump, though. 

A winter storm warning remains in effect statewide in Vermont. Even in the off chance this storm is slightly weaker than forecast - and don't count on that - we still have bad roads and the risk of power outages. 

THIS IFFY MORNING

The first issue I see is that first thump of snow coming through this morning. For one thing, it's running later than advertised. It didn't start snowing here in St. Albans until around 5:30 p.m. and hasn't come down that hard yet. It started in Burlington a little after 4:30 a.m.

The second bigger problem is, as I suspected might happen, it is a little warmer than many forecasts indicated. It was 38 degrees at 4 a.m. in Burlington, just before the snow started. Other valley locations were also several degrees above freezing at the onset of snow.

That means some of this started as light rain. The precipitation is cooling the air, so it does quickly change over to snow as this moves northward. But since it's at least starting out above freezing, this initial thump won't accumulate as much as previously thought in the valleys.

Roads are still getting dicey, so this morning's commute will not be a picnic by any stretch of the imagination. As the snow began, the roads were mostly just wet. But as the snow picked up from south to north, I noticed on Vermont traffic cams that in some cases, the wet roads turned at least slushy.    Road crews are out, but if you must drive this morning, go slow and cautiously. 

Chances are you won't have to take your kids to school. The growing list of school closings in Vermont and surrounding areas is quite long. 

Meanwhile, in mid and high elevations, this first thump of snow is completely on track with forecasts so far. It was snowing hard in the somewhat higher spots in southern and central Vermont and that was steadily spreading north as of 6 a.m. 

AFTERNOON THAW?

We're still looking at a midday and afternoon lull in the precipitation, especially in the valleys and even more so west of the Green Mountains and parts of the Northeast Kingdom.

I the warmer valleys, like the Champlain, lower Connecticut and the Route 7 corridor from Brandon to Bennington, I see a bit of a thaw setting in, with temperatures even a little warmer than originally forecast.  A few spots could flirt with 40 degrees.

Meanwhile, the high elevations will continue to get their snow as very wet air from the Atlantic Ocean continues to blast in from the east.  That wet air will be forced to rise along the eastern slopes of the Greens. That will keep the snow cranking up there, especially in southern and central Vermont. 

This leads us to the second bust potential with this storm. 

OVERNIGHT QUESTIONS

The projected path of this storm through eastern New England is, on paper, a perfect set up for a good thump of snow at least somewhere in Vermont. 

So far just a light dusting of wet snow in St. Albans
as of 7:15 a.m. We'll see how this plays out between
now and Saturday

Usually, a band of moderate to heavy snow sets up a fair distance to the northwest of a nor'easter like this.  In this case, it would mean somewhere over Vermont.

If the forecast holds, that would mean several hours of steady, sometimes even heavy snow overnight in much of the state. That would be the bulk of this long lasting storm.

However, there's a chance this expected area of snow could be further east in New Hampshire. If that happens, snow totals from this storm will be a lot less than forecast.

If it's snowing in the valleys Saturday, it will taper off during the day into patchy light snow and snow showers. The flakes should keep flying in the mountains, especially from Killington north possibly into Sunday.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Accumulations: 

Total accumulations through Saturday afternoon look to be at about four to 10 inches in lower elevations. There could be huge differences in snow depth over short distances. Totals might be as little as two or three inches right along the immediate shore of Lake Champlain, and several inches deeper just a handful of miles inland. 

The mid and high elevations are still in for a decent dump.  I would say most towns at or above 900 feet are in for at least eight inches of snow, unless that overnight burst tonight ends up being a total bust. Some places could get over a foot.

The mountains should still do pretty well, with at least a foot at the ski resorts. A few places could reach two feet up there.

Road Conditions

The conditions were going downhill as of 7 a.m. today.  In general, low elevation roads aren't quite as bad as first predicted, but watch that slush and thin layer of wet snow on some of the main roads. It's deceptively slick.  Higher elevation roads this morning are snow covered and slippery.

Mid and high elevation roads should remain challenging all day.  In low elevations, if you must get out on the roads, do it at midday and early afternoon. Main roads should mostly be just wet as a bit of a thaw sets in between the bursts of snow this morning and an expected one tonight. 

If that long period of snow comes in tonight as expected, road conditions statewide would deteriorate this evening and remain tricky into Saturday morning.

Power Outages

Power interruptions are still definitely possible, as the snow is wet and heavy.  This issue could happen anywhere in Vermont between now and Saturday afternoon. The best chances of power outages would probably be at mid-elevations in southern and central Vermont, especially along the east slopes of the Green Mountains. 

As of 7 a.m., there weren't any outages to speak of yet in Vermont, but some were cropping up across the pond in New York. 

Outlook:

It'll stay relatively mild through Monday with valley highs getting into the low 30s. Snow showers will continue, especially in the mountains, with additional bits of accumulation to keep the ski slopes fresh.

It'll start turning sharply colder around Tuesday. And we'll need to start thinking about another nor'easter that might or might not happen around December 23.

I'll post updates on this storm as needed through Saturday, of course! 

Thursday Vermont Storm Update: Messy Valleys, Snowy Mountains

The latest snow forecast map from the National Weather Service
office in South Burlington. Forecasters are increasingly
optimistic that the entire state will receive at least 
several inches of snow. The mountains will be the big winners.

I suppose it's a good sign where the forecast for the upcoming nor'easter hasn't changed all that much between late yesterday afternoon and this morning.  

At least there's consistency. 

The National Weather Service office in Burlington has upgraded all winter storm watches into winter storm warnings statewide, so that makes things pretty inevitable. 

It still looks like the big winners with the storm will be the mountains and ski areas, which will basically get what will feel like a never ending snowfall. In some parts of Green Mountains, especially the northern half of that range, it'll start snowing early Friday morning. That snow up there could keep going well into Sunday. 

Yay for the ski areas!

The lower in the valleys you are, the more you will sort of lose out.  It'll still snow, and accumulate, but much of it will be a wet slushy mess, some rain could still get thrown in, it'll be a pain in the butt, and the back and everything else to shovel, and you could lose electricity.  If you have to drive anywhere during this, that'll be annoying at best, too.

Um, yay?  Sort of?  

The scenario for this still pictures this storm lasting a long time, and coming in waves. We still have lots of question marks and some of those question marks will persist right up into the storm itself, so we'll have to adjust as we go along. 

The first burst of snow will move south to north across Vermont early Friday, and make for an, um, interesting Friday morning commute. In some places, the snow will be coming down hard, maybe at a pace of one to two inches per hour, so the plow trucks will have trouble keeping up. Wet snow is also more slippery than a midwinter powder fest, so that will be a factor Friday morning, too. 

East winds might block some of the moisture, so places right along the western slopes of the Green Mountains seem like they'll have somewhat lighter snow. Plus, compressional warming as the air flows down the west slopes of the Greens could turn the snow to rain in low elevations immediately below those mountains.

As the morning wears on and into the afternoon, the snow will taper off, as Wave #1 passes off into Quebec. The higher elevations will still be receiving light to sometimes moderate snow. Some of the lower elevations in the Champlain Valley, southwestern Vermont and the lower Connecticut River valley look like they stand a good shot of going over to light rain, sprinkles, drizzle and fog for the midday hours Friday. 

As the storm consolidates along the New England coast, a band of heavier snow looks like it wants to redevelop somewhere over central and northern Vermont later afternoon Friday into the evening. 

Where that band sets up, even if it does, is tricky, so this part of the forecast really has a high bust potential. Could be a great burst, could be a nothingburger.  I'm leaning toward a burst of snow,  with maybe a few inches of new snow Friday evening. 

Here's another complicating factor: If you've been reading this blog thingy for the past couple of days, you'll see I keep mentioning the American computer forecasting models want to take the storm further off the coast. The other models have it hugging the New England coast more. 

The American model was still trying this morning - at least a little - to push the storm offshore. That could still happen. High pressure over eastern Canada and a strong storm east of that high, could deflect the storm that way. I'm not saying that's definitely what will happen, but it remains possible. 

In any event, northwest winds will wrap moisture back around into Vermont Friday night and Saturday. This will favor the western slopes that will have missed out on the first part of the storm. Everybody wins! Feels like Oprah. "You get some snow! And YOU get some snow! You too!"

Overall, the National Weather Service is going with a mid-sized, if sloppy wet snow in the valleys, with generally four to ten inches expected. Remember, this storm has a high bust potential.  Expect the unexpected, as we could be surprised with extra rain, or extra snow in some of the valleys. 

Since this is a long lasting event, the mountains, as noted, will be the big winners, with a foot to foot and a half of snow. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if some higher elevations clock in with two feet by Sunday afternoon. 

Scattered power outages seem like a good bet, too, especially on east facing slopes that are still at low enough elevations to see wet snow and not more powdery stuff. My best guess is the most outages would be in the southern Greens roughly between Wilmington and Bridgewater.

Bottom line, this storm will be both a pain in the neck and a reason to celebrate. Ski areas get a nice dump just in time for Christmas week. So the resorts are happy, and so will the Vermont Department of Taxes, given the anticipated sales tax revenue this storm could bring. 

For valley dwellers, the good thing is there will be snow to play in, and it wills stick around through Christmas Day to get you into the holiday spirit, if you're not there already. 

On the not so happy side with this storm, if you're out of shape or worried about your heart health, please get some robust, brawny teenager to shovel your driveway.  Meanwhile, you can sit inside with your hot chocolate and rifle through your wallet looking for cash to pay said teenager. Or maybe just Venmo them, I don't know.

Also remember, you might be great at driving in the snow, but some people are, frankly idiots. Drive defensively in this one. Also, check on your elderly neighbors, especially if the power goes out. 

Wednesday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Some Winter Watches Upgraded To Warnings; Long Storm Likely

A new snow forecast map issued by the National Weather
Service office in South Burlington. Click on the map to make
it bigger and easier to see. Compared to this morning's map.
expected snow totals have increased somewhat. 

 As they always do, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has been refining their forecast for what will probably be the first major winter storm of the season in Vermont late Thursday into Saturday.  

Also, as expected, there have been some changes to the forecast. Most of those changes favor snow lovers. But that doesn't mean everybody gets a huge dump of snow.  We still have question marks and red flags with this storm forecast.

You know, all those meteorologists trying to forecast this storm seem so cool and collected. But I bet they're pulling their hair out trying to get this one right. And drinking, perhaps heavily, after their work shifts. This is a tough forecast. 

The winter storm watch has been upgraded to a winter storm warning for central Vermont from Lamoille County all the way down to the Massachusetts border. In those areas, confidence has increased enough that a pretty decent dump of snow seems inevitable from late Thursday night into Saturday.

Those of you in the winter storm warning zone can expect 9 to 18 inches of snow, but some favored spots could end up with two feet of new snow by Saturday afternoon. That's at least according to the latest thoughts from the NWS Burlington.

If things pan out as currently expected this will really be a great high elevation snow, perfect for Vermont's ski industry as we gear up for the Christmas holiday. The resorts have been making snow, and they've gotten a little natural stuff in recent days, but they can really use the boost from a big dump, and the publicity surrounding said big dump.

I'm sure the marketing departments at Vermont's resorts are working overtime on this to get the word out, if this dump actually happens. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, we're still under a winter storm watch, not a warning. The Northeast Kingdom was not under any kind of alert this morning, but that winter storm watch has now been expanded to include them as well.

It makes sense that the National Weather Service hasn't upgraded that watch, as there's still some questions.  Uh, some questions? Many questions. Like exactly where the storm goes, how much moisture it has to play with, how warm it will get and the precise wind directions. That'll all greatly influence how much snow any particular place gets.

(Remember, a winter storm watch means conditions are favorable for a winter storm. A winter storm warning means a big, noticeable storm is pretty much inevitable).

In general, though, the predicted amount of snow in the forecast area wide is a little more than what was in the forecast this morning. 

What follows is what the National Weather Service in South Burlington thinks will happen with this storm. As you know, new data could make them change their minds and come up with a different scenario for this storm. But here's what the thinking is for now:

The initial thump of snow still looks like it wants to come through from a little after midnight Friday through the Friday morning commute.  The morning commute looks like it could be a huge mess virtually statewide, with wet snow coming down at a rate of one to two inches per hour.

You might want to start working with your boss to just work at home instead of driving to the office, if possible. I'd expect a fair amount of school closings, too. So plan on entertaining the kiddos at home. I'd just make them shovel the driveway.

During the afternoon, it looks like the moisture feed coming off the Atlantic would come almost directly from the east, or maybe southeast. That might keep the snow going full blast on the eastern slopes of the Greens, and the summits. That's a big part of the logic behind the new winter storm warning in central Vermont.

In this scenario, the Green Mountains would block a lot of the moisture from getting into the Champlain Valley, and the low elevations in southwestern Vermont all the way down to Bennington. In these places, the snow would taper off to just light stuff or nothing at all. it will probably warm up enough to also create periods of light rain and/or drizzle in these valleys. Sounds lovely. 

For snow lovers in the Champlain Valley, there is some hope. Friday night and Saturday, the wind will shift to the north, and moisture will still be feeding in from the Atlantic from this slow-moving nor'easter. 

When you get a set up like that, the air coming in from Quebec gets squeezed between the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. When the air gets squeezed like that, it has to rise to have room. Rising air encourages moisture to cool, condense and fall as snow. If things work out just right, that would mean several inches of snow for the Champlain Valley Friday night and Saturday. 

This is still expected to be a wet, heavy snow, especially at elevations below 2,000 feet or so. That's most of us, frankly. If the snow comes down as hard as some forecasts indicate, expect at least scattered power outages. 

Get your LED candles ready Thursday night just in case and charge your devices.

There's still a ton of wild cards as of this Wednesday evening that might make this forecast a bust, or at least create some major changes.

As I mentioned this morning, the American computer models insist on taking the main nor'easter well off the coast, which would diminish how much snow we'd get. As of late this afternoon, the American model was still insisting this would be a case. That's at odds with all the other models, which say the storm will go along the coast.

Just because the Mean Girl other models are ganging up on the American model, we can't say the computer model from the good old U.S. of A is wrong. Maybe it's seeing what nobody else is seeing?

We don't know how warm it will get. On paper, it looks like the valleys will get above freezing for just a few hours, if at all, and the warmest temperatures would come when the precipitation is lightest.

I've often seen the computer models underestimate the strength of warm air intrusions with storms like this. Especially early in the winter. Also, the water temperature off the New England coast is warmer than normal. Will that make the air coming into northwestern New England warmer than predicted, and give us more rain?   Maybe.

If you're a snow lover and get burned by this storm, you still have a shot at joy. Longer range forecasts - though not always accurate - are suggesting below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation well into the week between Christmas and New Year. That would suggest plenty of snow.

I wouldn't hang my hat on that scenario, but maybe! 

As is always the case in a situation like this, expect an update from me tomorrow morning. 

Ever Deeper Into Winter

How it started: My yard in St. Albans, Vermont begins its 
journey toward winter on September 1.......

Nothing like a bit of a snow cover to finally drive temperatures down to winter depths. 

It's not your imagination, it really was a cold morning in and near Vermont today. Nothing close to any records, mind you, but it was certainly something that we're not used to yet. 

Anytime there's snow on the ground and you get at least partly clear skies, like we did last night and early this morning, it gets cold. 

The region's first subzero reading of the season came in early this morning from notorious cold spot Saranac Lake, New York, that got to at least 1 below.  That town is regularly colder than everybody else. Still, quite a few single digit readings came in from Vermont's colder hollows this morning.

Banana belt Burlington, Vermont got down to 14 this morning, the first under 20 reading of the season. This after reaching a high of 31 yesterday, the first subfreezing daily high of the season. 

Those two stats -  the first under 20 at night, the below freezing high - were somewhat later in the season than normal but not at all unprecedented. The last time we had a later first under 20 night was in 2016, when we waited until December 10.

In 2015, we incredibly had to wait until December 28 for Burlington's first subfreezing day.

The snow we had Friday night was a little less impressive on the mountain tops than it could have been. Jay Peak got a decent 18 inches of snow, but I had expected close to two feet of fresh powder up there. Still, I'm sure the skiers and riders are happy there. 

How it ended. Same view as above in my yard, except
photo was taken yesterday, when we could say the 
journey into winter was complete. 

The snow stake near the top of Mount Mansfield showed nine inches of snow on the ground Thursday, and that was up to 18 inches by Saturday. Again, OK, but not earth-shattering. 

Going forward, expect some typical early winter Vermont weather for the next week.  It's nice to see the sun and blue skies this morning, despite the chill.  Don't get used to it.  As I noted yesterday, it's the cloudiest time of the year. 

Clouds will fill in today ahead of weak little thing going by to our south tonight. That one will fling a little light snow to central and southern Vermont, but that'll be a total non-biggie. There also might be a little sun Tuesday. But that will be it for bright weather all week.

The most "impressive" system looks like it will come by Thursday. That'll bring some gusty south winds with it to warm us up enough to produce some chilly rain showers. (perhaps staying snow in the mountains, we'll see).  Then it will be back to clouds, flurries, and chill.

It's still unclear what next weekend will bring but at this point,  but my initial guess is a continuation of these mediocre little things throwing wind and light precipitation our way.  

Getting Set For That Big Dump Of Snow (For Some Of Us)

This morning's snow forecast map from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington. The main change was to 
increase snow totals in the southern Green Mountains. 
Areas in yellow and orange are forecast to see at 
least six inches of snow.

 If  you're one of those crazy people who actually like to go out for Black Friday shopping, be one of those even crazier early birds. 

At least if you're in or near Vermont.

The weather will be worsening as the day wears on with more and more snow filling in. That means increasingly slick roads with nobody yet used to driving in the snow.

If anything, the forecasted amount of snow has increased, at least in some areas. The bulk of it will come tonight.  So I guess the best thing to do this evening is stay in and watch those really icky Hallmark Christmas movies. 

The winter storm warning now extends down the entire spine of the Green Mountains from Canada to Massachusetts. 

Part of the reason for that is the swoosh of wet air that will wrap around a developing storm near Maine tonight will go further south than anticipated. That will help produce a pretty good dump in the southern Green Mountains.  

The northern summits are still probably going to get at least a foot. I wouldn't be that surprised if the summits of Mount Mansfield and/or Jay Peak come in with 20 inch storm totals. 

The western slopes of the Green Mountains are also under the winter storm warning for a pretty solid 6 to 10 inches.

Except for Grand Isle County, the rest of Vermont that is not under a winter storm warning is under a slightly less dire winter weather advisory. Most places in the state, except right along Lake Champlain and in the southern Connecticut River Valley, should see at least two inches of snow. 

As of 7 a.m this morning, precipitation was beginning to blossom across the area.  A lot of it was rain, with snow in the higher elevations. There might even be a touch of freezing rain early today in some of the protected valleys east of the Green Mountains.

Snow levels will keep coming down in elevation during the day. By sometime at or after sunset, even the low elevation Banana Belt towns in the Champlain Valley should be seeing snow. 

The snow will really come down hard along the western slopes tonight. Plus, winds will gust to at least 35 mph in many areas, causing a lot of blowing and drifting and problems with visibility on the roads. 

It won't be as bad elsewhere, but it will be no picnic.  Snow and blowing snow will be a problem even in many valley locations. It just won't be as extensive as up high. Almost everyone will see icy, slippery roads tonight.  Sigh. 

It'll get cold enough tonight so that the snow will become more powdery and less wet and sticky. That's a piece of good news because that way, we won't have to worry so much about trees and power lines falling under wet snow and strong winds. There might be a few power outages here and there, but I don't think it will be too widespread.

Expect some pretty big variations in conditions. If you're right along the shore of Lake Champlain tonight, you'll probably wonder what all the fuss is about. Drive east a few miles inland from the lake, and you'll hit hardcore winter. 

This storm is, of course, a boon to Vermont ski areas.  Some of them had to open later than planned this month, because it wasn't really cold enough to make snow. 

This big thump of snow is certainly helpful, but it's largely PR for the ski areas. Everybody's going to hear that it's dumping in the mountains, so that'll attract business.

Even better for the ski areas, though, is they're in for an extended period of subfreezing weather, probably lasting to at least Thursday. That brings plenty of opportunity to make snow and build up the bases.

The snow should taper off fairly quickly Saturday, leaving you time to shovel it all off the driveway and sidewalks. 

Little weather systems will continue to keep coming through during the first half of the new week, keeping us cloudy and cold with little bits of snow coming down now and then. It won't amount to too much

One or two of these disturbances seem like the might generate some bigger storms off the New England coast, but it looks like they'll develop too far to our east to give us any more big weather troubles.