Biggest Snowstorm Of Year Looms For Parts Of Vermont, Power Outage, Travel Threat

Now that it's spring, it's time for a major, disruptive winter storm.

This morning's National Weather Service snow forecast map.
Virtually all of Vermont north of Route 4 is now 
expecting at least a foot of snow out of this. 
Saturday is going to be a real mess. 

 Oh joy!   

As expected, the winter storm watch has been upgraded to a winter storm warning for everybody in Vermont except Bennington and Windham counties in far southern parts of the state

THE HEADLINES:

---  This might be the biggest snowstorm of the year, with more than a foot likely for the vast majority of towns from about Route 4 north to the Canadian border.

----- Road conditions will be awful Saturday and travel is not recommended at all.  

---- We could see a large number of power outages again, especially as the snow becomes wetter and heavier by late morning and afternoon. 

------ Snow will probably mix with or change to rain, sleet and maybe some freezing rain Saturday from roughly Route 4 southward.

----- The forecast has a very high bust potential one way or another.  Expect surprises, and results may vary. The mix with rain in southern Vermont is a big wildcard. 

THE DETAILS

Forecasted snow amounts have further increased since the predictions from last night and yesterday morning. Most places in central and northern Vermont should expect at least a foot of snow. A few favored locations, especially in the mountains could close in on two feet of snow. 

Everything is coming together for a big storm, as plenty of moisture will flood in off the Atlantic Ocean to sock New England with TONS of precipitation. 

Southern New England is looking at a flood threat. Northern New England is "lucky" enough to stay cold enough for mostly or all snow. 

The Effects

This will all start as snow after midnight tonight statewide. It won't take long before it starts coming down really hard, like an inch or even locally two inches per hour. That's a pace at which it's hard for plow crews to keep up with it. 

Expect crappy road conditions all day Saturday.  They're even saying travel would be virtually impossible at some times and some areas. Today ought to be your traditional milk and bread panic day, or booze buying day if you're into that. You'll want to hunker down and stay home tomorrow. 

Oh, and make sure you stock up today on LED candles and flashlights and stuff too, if you don't already have them.  Power outages are inevitable. We just don't yet know how extensive they'll be. 

The snow will start out fairly powdery before dawn, but then turn wetter and heavier as the day wears on. This will be a statewide issue by afternoon.  Many of us will start to hear branches break, and power flicker and/or go off. 

Just how wet and heavy the snow becomes will determine how bad the power outages get. Be prepared, just in case. 

This will also be "heart attack" snow, hard to shovel away.  Do it slowly during and after the storm, or better yet, hire your local high school student athlete to clear the snow for you.  This is the type of stuff that will clog snow blowers. 

I'm being Captain Obvious here, but it needs to be said: Shut off the snow blower when it clogs, wait for all the parts to stop moving, then use a tool or broomstick to unclog. Keep your hands to yourself and don't fondle the snow blower, please. That is if you want to keep your hands attached to your arms for future use. 

Anyway, this will be a day long affair, with the heavy snow lasting probably into the evening north of Route 4.  It probably won't be a matter of waiting for conditions to improve. In most places, they probably won't.

This storm will hit just as hard in northern New Hampshire and much of Maine, and parts of southern Quebec, too, so it won't be easy to escape this.  

South of Route 4, the National Weather Service is still forecasting a mix with or more likely a change to rain. There could also be pockets of sleet and freezing rain to make things even more fun.  This will all hold accumulations there down to six inches or less.

And you'll have an awful slush fest on your hands. Which will probably harden like cement when temperatures fall Saturday night. 

Bust Potential

As always with this storms, we're going to have surprises.  The National Weather Service is confident there will be a lot of snow, but the definition of "a lot" is iffy here. There's a more than 90 percent chance of at least six inches of snow north of Route 4, so the confidence is high there. 

The chances for at least a foot of snow go down to between 50 and 65 percent north of Middlebury and Thetford. 

The big questions are whether the rain will poke further north than forecast. That would cut down accumulations in central Vermont. 

 Or, less likely, the storm might not phase up as expected, so the moisture feed could be disrupted and we'll get less. 

The National Weather Service forecast map you see on this post isn't gospel.  It's a general idea of what is expected as of Friday morning. Expect adjustments to the forecast today and tonight. And when the storm is over, chances are you'll have somewhat less or somewhat more snow than what's depicted. 

The Big Thaw

This being spring, not all the snow will stick around forever. Sunday will be a big powder day on the ski slopes, though the sun might soften the snow and make it a little slushy in places where the sun really hits. The high sun angle of late March can really heat things up, even if the air stays cold. 

It will be a bright, sunny day to start clearing snow. That high sun angle will cause a LOT of reflectivity. It will be blinding out there, so definitely bring the sunglasses.

It'll only get into the 30s in most low elevations Sunday, so there won't be huge melting. It'll just start in sunny corners. 

The deep snow cover, mostly clear skies and light winds will make temperatures crash Sunday night, with readings easily dropping to near 10 or even under that in many places.

The rest of the week looks seasonably warm, with daytime temperatures getting well into the 40s. The thaw will start, at least in the valleys. 

With all the snow the mountains have gotten in the past week, and the snow we're going to see tomorrow, the flood potential goes up.  If it gets really warm and rains heavily in the next week or two, we're in for a bit of trouble.

At this point it seems that chances favor a gradual melt with not a huge amount of rain, so that's good news.  Rain showers are in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday and possibly Friday.  There's a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. For the time being, I'm unimpressed by the expected rainfall totals, which is a good thing if you don't want high water.

But, we'll just get through this big snowstorm and worry about that later.

Saturday Evening Vermont Storm Update: As You'd Expect, Some Forecast Changes

The latest snow forecast from the National Weather 
Service office in South Burlington, issued Saturday afternoon.
Still looking at a solid thump of mostly wet snow in
northern and central Vermont. 

 We have some changes to the forecast with this long-advertised storm that's expected to hit Vermont starting tomorrow and worsening Monday. 

The track of the storm on computer forecasting models keeps nudging east a little bit. That means in general less rain and more wet snow for the Green Mountain State. 

The flood watch that had been in effect for central and northern Vermont has been dropped. Rain will probably change to snow sooner than previous forecasts, limiting the amount of rain and thawing. 

The rain Sunday and the first half of Sunday night will cause sharp rises along rivers in the northern half of Vermont, but the water won't get as high as previously thought, so any significant flooding is now not really on the table. 

The flood watch continues for roughly the southeastern half of Vermont, as enough rain seems likely to cause a flood risk.

The story with this upcoming storm over the past couple of days has been gradually shifting from a warm floody (new word invented by me) to more of a winter storm. 

So, with that in mind, the National Weather Service in South Burlington this afternoon upgraded the wine storm watch to a winter storm warning for all but southern and southeastern Vermont. 

The winter storm warning is in effect for later Sunday night through early Monday evening. Most places in the warning area should expect four to ten inches of snow, but some spots in the central and northern Green Mountains could get as much as a foot and a half of snow. 

The snow is still expected to be wet and heavy, but there's a twist to this. The two previous storms on November 27 and December 4 cut power to mostly mid and high elevations of Vermont. The Champlain Valley pretty much escaped the power outage trouble in those instances. 

It's not looking like that will be the case this time. Power outages are a risk pretty much everywhere in Vermont with this one. But, as the National Weather Service office in South Burlington pointed out this afternoon, the wettest snow seems likely in the Champlain Valley. You know, that dreadful slush that's the consistency of wet cement? Yeah, that's what that part of Vermont seems in for. 

Little bit of a calm before the storm. A red sunset late
Saturday afternoon as seen from St. Albans, Vermont. 

The Champlain Valley is the most densely populated region of Vermont. So particularly wet snow hitting that neck of the woods would bring lots of power failures. 

The snow will probably be not quite as wet and cement-like in mid and high elevations, so the collapses trees and snapped power lines might not be quite as big a problem up in those areas. 

It's not like higher spots are getting off scot-free. It's just that lower elevations might be the target zone.

The Champlain Valley is also probably the hardest to forecast with this storm, too. The NWS South Burlington forecast discussion explains it pretty well:

"Snowfall near the warmer Lake Champlain waters will be a slushy couple of inches, while the BTV (Burlington) airport 4 to 8 inches is likely, to 6 to 10 inches in Williston/Essex to 10 to 16 inches Underhill/Bolton base."

 The Monday morning commute still looks like it will be a disaster. That's especially true in the Champlain Valley, at least if the current forecast is accurate.  As I said this morning, if you can work from home Monday, do that. Schools will probably be closed for the day, so you probably won't have to ferry your kids through the mess on the roads. 

I've outlined what current forecasts have in store for us. But you gotta remember, there's still plenty of room for forecast changes between now and when this stupid thing actually hits. So, you'll need to be on your toes and be ready for changes to all these predictions. This thing could still be not as bad as forecast, or worse than forecast. 

That's the cross we bear as Vermonters in the winter. The weather sucks, and surprises us. So we have to be ready for surprises.

By the way, this big storm isn't just a Vermont problem. Today, the storm produced tornadoes near the Tennessee/Kentucky border northwest of Nashville, causing some serious damage. Flood watches remain in effect along the East Coast from northeastern Virginia all the way to northern Maine. 

On the bright side, for most of the nation, including Vermont, the weather should be much quieter for awhile after this storm passes. 

Rain Storm And Some Flooding Still In Cards For Vermont, But Another Round Of Heavy, Wet Snow Is, Too

Photo shows heavy, wet snow snarling traffic and 
weighing down trees in St. Albans, Vermont this
past March 14  Changes to the forecast for
the upcoming storm suggest we might see
similar scenes in Vermont Monday morning,
along with some potential flooding.

 

UPDATE 2 PM FRIDAY

The National Weather Service office has - to pretty much nobody's surprise - issued a flood watch for most of Vermont and northeastern New York for Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

The forecast for heavy rain later Sunday still stands. 

The Northeast River Forecast Center forecasts minor flooding for the Winooski and Mad Rivers and the Otter Creek in Vermont. 

All other rivers in the state should see sharp rises, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if other rivers in the state flood as well. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

As we track the nasty storm due to start Sunday in Vermont, we are following the inevitable changes in the forecast.  

One change that's cropping up is that toward the end of the storm, we might have another round of heavy, wet snow that would be enough to cause power outages. 

That would be the third time in a month that has happened. At least if it really does happen.

I've just returned to Vermont from Edinburgh, Scotland, and am greeted this morning by the kind of weather I experienced over there. It's overcast and dreary.  

Some sun might develop this afternoon. But as is typical for this time of year, we won't have much sun. 

Leading up to the storm, today and Saturday will be quiet, and turning warmer. It'll get into the 30s this afternoon, about where temperature should be for this time of year.  Readings won't fall much tonight, and then we'll get into the 40s tomorrow under continued cloudy skies.

THE RAIN STORM

Predictions for the first part of this storm haven't changed much. It will turn even warmer, with highs in the 40s, to possibly near 50 in a couple spots Sunday. Rain will move in during the day. The threat of strong winds during the first half of the storm have diminished, but it will still be breezy, especially in the Champlain Valley. 

That thump of relatively heavy rain will peak Sunday night, as will the rate of melting snow from the mountains. Streams and rivers will rise rapidly, and we're still looking at some minor flooding  Like I have said in previous days, any flooding we do get won't be nearly as serious as what we endured this past summer. 

However, it's basically always night this time of year, and it's harder to see high water on roads up ahead, until it's too late. Some low-lying roads will probably go under water Sunday night and Monday, and if you don't see the water, your car can get caught in that flooding.

The idea of being alone, stuck in frigid water in your car or near it does not sound appealing. Plus, we can't ignore the obvious fact that the cold water could kill you pretty quickly.   

On top of that, there's new forecast complications to deal with as Monday comes along.

SNOWIER FORECAST?

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington points out, there's been some changes to some of the forecasts the computer models are spitting out. 

That wet soggy cold front that is causing the big thump of rain should cross through mostly before dawn on Monday. Meanwhile, the models are suggesting a storm will form along the front somewhere in Mid-Atlantic States.

The more ominous computer models take the new storm northward through eastern Massachusetts and on into Maine, All the while, this fresh storm would rapidly strengthen.

This would keep the heavy precipitation going here in Vermont. The cold air flooding in would change the rain to a wet snow, just in time for the Monday morning commute.

This could be a real mess, given the timing. Since the cold air coming in behind the storm isn't all that cold, the burst of snow would be wet and heavy.  That's the worst crap to drive through. 

On top of that, since the storm would be getting strong, winds from the northwest would howl, perhaps with gusts to 40 mph.  The combination of wet snow piling up on trees with a lot of wind is a recipe for more power failures.

Just what we need, right?  The storm on November 27 cut power to 34,000 Vermont homes and businesses. That got fixed just in time for the storm on December 3-4 to cut power to 16,000 or so Vermont customers.

Now, we have another potential storm to cause similar-sized problems. I'm sure Green Mountain Power and other Vermont electric utilities are just thrilled with this updated forecast. 

This repeated storm damage to electric utilities is expensive to fix. So even if get lucky and none of the storms cuts power to your house, you'll still eventually pay through higher electric bills. Dealing with these storms probably delays efforts by Green Mountain Power to reinforce their grid against increasingly severe storms in the age of climate change.

The early guess on snow accumulations on Monday is perhaps a good thump of six to 12 inches in the ski areas to at least partly replace what is lost in the thaw and rain Sunday night. 

There could be as little as one to three inches in the warmer valleys. But this is just a guess.  I think it will take until Sunday to get a good read on exactly how much wet snow we'll get. Even then, we will probably be in for new surprises with this storm. 

We might have some good news after the storm departs. The weather pattern has been pretty active so far this December, but it looks like a pattern shift might make things go quieter starting next Tuesday. If longer range forecasts pan out, we'll see normal to somewhat above normal temperatures and not much precipitation of any kind into mid-month. We shall see! 

 

Snow Trouble Both Sides Of The Atlantic

Latest snow forecast from the National Weather Service
in South Burlington. Mid and high elevations can
expect perhaps six inches wet snow. Be alert, as
these totals might change substantially in the actual storm.

 EDINBURGH, SCOTLAND -  At my temporary perch in this Scottish city, we haven't gotten any snow so far in my stay. The hills around town yes, but not in the city center.  

But I see there's a snowy mess on both sides of the pond. Swaths of the UK, and elsewhere in Europe, have gotten some disruptive snows.

Meanwhile, it still looks like disruptive snows are in the cards for Vermont and surround areas. Let's take Vermont first.

Like the wet, heavy snowstorm back on November 27 that caused a mess and power outages, the one that's coming today and tonight in the Green Mountain State will easily surprise folks one way or another. 

Temperatures, like last time, will be marginal, very close to the freezing mark. That means, as  mentioned yesterday, if it ends up being a degree or two warmer than expected, it'll be mostly rain. If it's a degree or two cooler than what's in the forecast now, then the wet snow will be much more widespread.

Expect surprises.

The worst of the storm will run from this afternoon to early Monday morning.  Before we get there, freezing drizzle and freezing fog this morning near the Canadian border will cause some spotty ice and travel trouble, especially on bridges and overpasses. 

The heavier precipitation will move in this afternoon. It'll come down heavily at times tonight. The best chances of accumulating snow will be during the heavier bouts of precipitation overnight. That heavy stuff tends to cool the air enough so that if you're above freezing and raining, you'll likely switch to snow.

Once again, the higher you go the more snow you'll get. A winter storm warning is up for the Northeast Kingdom and high elevations of northeast New York, where six inches or more of wet slop is in the cards. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, a winter weather advisory is up for areas outside the immediate Champlain Valley and so far not including the state's southernmost counties. In these areas two to seven inches of sloppy wet snow is forecast, but there could be some surprises with higher totals if temperatures dip just a degree or two downward more than expected.

The immediate Champlain Valley can expect one or two inches, but again, be wary of any surprises that could boost totals overnight. 

As you've noticed, I keep mentioning heavy, wet snow. That means power failures are likely. That's especially true in  mid and high elevations where the snow should accumulate the most.

I can't emphasize enough the predicted snow amounts are not cast in stone.  This is a tricky storm.  My gut is sort of pushing me to expect a little more snow that's currently in the forecast, but it could really go either way.  Either a huge dump of wet snow, something in the middle, or perhaps, not as big a deal.

I'd get ready for a wet snowy mess with difficult travel early Monday and the risk of power outages. Get the LED candles and charge your devices by this evening to be on the safe side.

Whatever comes down will be quite a bit. Rain and melted snow will amount to 0.75 inches to 1.25 inches most areas, with some spots seeing higher amounts. That makes it a pretty substantial storm. 

Much lighter wet snow and rain will keep going Monday in most areas, but accumulations will be lighter and many areas will be above freezing. So things should improve during the day. 

Of course, it will get colder Monday night, so a combination of water freezing on roads and light snow showers will make the roads annoying again overnight and Tuesday morning. 

BRITAIN/EUROPEAN SNOW

Vermont isn't the only place that's dealing with heavy, wet snow. In some places on this side of the pond, there's plenty of it.

Here in Scotland, Edinburgh on the northeast coast hasn't gotten any snow, but we might get some today. The Met Office, the British equivalent of the National Weather Service has Edinburgh and most of eastern Scotland under a "yellow warning" for some snow and us. 

A yellow warning is the equivalent of a winter weather advisory, and not quite as dire as the equivalent of a winter storm warning.   

Snow is visible in the hills near Edinburgh, Scotland. 

Snow is already affected other areas of the UK. The Glasgow, Scotland airport had to suspend flights Saturday morning due to a burst of heavy snow.  The Midlands, Yorkshire and large parts of Wales are snowy, with roads and railways icy and slow.

Jackknifed trucks (I've learned to call them lorries here) blocked a major highway in Cumbria.  

Elsewhere in Europe, heavy snow shut down parts of Germany. Munich had no bus or train service Saturday after 16 inches of heavy, wet snow fell there.

Intense cold and heavy snow are also causing problems. Traffic was at a standstill around Prague in the Czech Republic. Austria and Switzerland are on the alert for avalanches. 

In both Vermont and western and central Europe, longer range forecasts call for somewhat milder conditions in about a week. 

Sunday Evening Storm Update: Slightly Less Bad In Southern Vermont; Far North Could Be Spared

Forecasters Sunday afternoon backed off somewhat on 
expected accumulations of snow in Vermont from the 
upcoming storm. Southern Vermont should still
get a big thump of snow. Far northern Vermont
might escape major drama. 

 First of all, we need to stop and say today was truly a sign of spring, even if parts of Vermont have a winter storm warning hanging over their heads.  

We had great sunshine until late afternoon, light winds, and temperatures that got warmer than expected - in the mid 40s. This was the mildest day since mid-February. 

The kind of weather we got today will become more common as we head through spring. Any day with dry air, sunshine and light winds will feel great, and often be warmer than a lot of forecasts. Spring is coming!

But not right now. 

We're still dealing with the prospect of that giant storm heading toward New England Tuesday. 

THE LATEST FORECAST

The computer models are still at this late date disagreeing on the exact position of this weird, strong storm, even though its just 36 to 48 hours away.

The general idea is that the storm will begin to form tomorrow off the North Carolina coast. Then it will at first appear to begin to head out to sea, then loop back northwestward into the southeast corner of New England. Or at least near it. 

How far to the northwest this storm gets before as it lingers near or off the New England coast Tuesday will determine where it snows harder and who gets the most snow. 

People in southern Vermont, especially south of Route 4 and in the mountains, are still screwed. However, at least for now, expected accumulations have been cut back. 

A lot of forecasts this morning called for at least a 18 inches of snow in most of Bennington and Windham counties. That's been cut back to about a foot.  It's still going to be a wet and heavy snow, so power outage trouble is still inevitable. 

The super heavy stuff, closing in on two feet, now looks like it will focus on the Catskills of New York and possibly the Berkshires of western Massachusetts.

Between Route 4 and Route 2, the new forecasts call for 4 to 10 inches of snow. The least will be closest to Route 2 in the lower elevations, the most closer to Route 4 in the high spots. This is still enough to cause some electricity trouble.

An exception to this would be the Champlain Valley, which could get as little as two or four  inches of snow, even south of Route 2.

North of Route 2, unless there's a big surprise, we can breathe a sigh of relief, at least if forecasts issued late Sunday afternoon hold up and if you don't like big March snowstorms.  

Between Route 2 and the Canadian border, it look like just one to four inches of slushy slop will accumulate between Tuesday and Wednesday. 

This is just my opinion, but I was enjoying today's relatively springlike weather. I still have too much snow on the ground to get any meaningful work done in my yard. The fact that I might see as little as 1.5 to 2 inches of new snow thrills me. It won't be that much of a setback. The prospect of getting stuff done outdoors draws nearer. I hope?

No matter where you are in Vermont, this will be a storm that depends a lot on elevation. Valley floors will be warmer. In valleys of central and northern Vermont, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, the snow will fall lightly enough for some solar energy to sneak through the clouds. Some of the snow will melt as it hits. 

That's part of the reason why we don't expect huge snow accumulations north. 

Of course, even in the north, Tuesday and Wednesday won't exactly be nice days. It'll be a little colder than normal, it will snow and gusty north winds will  make it feel like mid-winter. 

Wednesday will be a transition day, as the storm slowly moves eastward away from New England. Any lingering snow should gradually taper off. Winds will diminish Wednesday night. 

AFTER THE STORM

We're getting into mid-March now, so even big snowstorms usually begin to melt right away. This will be no exception. Especially in the valleys.

This being March, for most of us, any snow that falls will start to melt pretty quickly. Temperatures at low elevations should rebound to the low 40s on Thursday in low and possibly mid elevations, so that will begin the process of clearing the storm.

A new system looks like it wants to bother us Friday into Saturday. It will be much smaller than the giant, lumbering storm we have to deal with Tuesday and Wednesday. Also, the early weekend storm should be mostly a cold rain. The highest peaks could get a few inches of snow out of this, but most of us should escape most of the wintry crap. 

The rain Friday and Friday night won't come down hard, so flooding isn't a worry. But it will erode some of the snow cover. That's inevitable. We're heading into spring now.

Thursday Vermont Storm Update: Messy Valleys, Snowy Mountains

The latest snow forecast map from the National Weather Service
office in South Burlington. Forecasters are increasingly
optimistic that the entire state will receive at least 
several inches of snow. The mountains will be the big winners.

I suppose it's a good sign where the forecast for the upcoming nor'easter hasn't changed all that much between late yesterday afternoon and this morning.  

At least there's consistency. 

The National Weather Service office in Burlington has upgraded all winter storm watches into winter storm warnings statewide, so that makes things pretty inevitable. 

It still looks like the big winners with the storm will be the mountains and ski areas, which will basically get what will feel like a never ending snowfall. In some parts of Green Mountains, especially the northern half of that range, it'll start snowing early Friday morning. That snow up there could keep going well into Sunday. 

Yay for the ski areas!

The lower in the valleys you are, the more you will sort of lose out.  It'll still snow, and accumulate, but much of it will be a wet slushy mess, some rain could still get thrown in, it'll be a pain in the butt, and the back and everything else to shovel, and you could lose electricity.  If you have to drive anywhere during this, that'll be annoying at best, too.

Um, yay?  Sort of?  

The scenario for this still pictures this storm lasting a long time, and coming in waves. We still have lots of question marks and some of those question marks will persist right up into the storm itself, so we'll have to adjust as we go along. 

The first burst of snow will move south to north across Vermont early Friday, and make for an, um, interesting Friday morning commute. In some places, the snow will be coming down hard, maybe at a pace of one to two inches per hour, so the plow trucks will have trouble keeping up. Wet snow is also more slippery than a midwinter powder fest, so that will be a factor Friday morning, too. 

East winds might block some of the moisture, so places right along the western slopes of the Green Mountains seem like they'll have somewhat lighter snow. Plus, compressional warming as the air flows down the west slopes of the Greens could turn the snow to rain in low elevations immediately below those mountains.

As the morning wears on and into the afternoon, the snow will taper off, as Wave #1 passes off into Quebec. The higher elevations will still be receiving light to sometimes moderate snow. Some of the lower elevations in the Champlain Valley, southwestern Vermont and the lower Connecticut River valley look like they stand a good shot of going over to light rain, sprinkles, drizzle and fog for the midday hours Friday. 

As the storm consolidates along the New England coast, a band of heavier snow looks like it wants to redevelop somewhere over central and northern Vermont later afternoon Friday into the evening. 

Where that band sets up, even if it does, is tricky, so this part of the forecast really has a high bust potential. Could be a great burst, could be a nothingburger.  I'm leaning toward a burst of snow,  with maybe a few inches of new snow Friday evening. 

Here's another complicating factor: If you've been reading this blog thingy for the past couple of days, you'll see I keep mentioning the American computer forecasting models want to take the storm further off the coast. The other models have it hugging the New England coast more. 

The American model was still trying this morning - at least a little - to push the storm offshore. That could still happen. High pressure over eastern Canada and a strong storm east of that high, could deflect the storm that way. I'm not saying that's definitely what will happen, but it remains possible. 

In any event, northwest winds will wrap moisture back around into Vermont Friday night and Saturday. This will favor the western slopes that will have missed out on the first part of the storm. Everybody wins! Feels like Oprah. "You get some snow! And YOU get some snow! You too!"

Overall, the National Weather Service is going with a mid-sized, if sloppy wet snow in the valleys, with generally four to ten inches expected. Remember, this storm has a high bust potential.  Expect the unexpected, as we could be surprised with extra rain, or extra snow in some of the valleys. 

Since this is a long lasting event, the mountains, as noted, will be the big winners, with a foot to foot and a half of snow. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if some higher elevations clock in with two feet by Sunday afternoon. 

Scattered power outages seem like a good bet, too, especially on east facing slopes that are still at low enough elevations to see wet snow and not more powdery stuff. My best guess is the most outages would be in the southern Greens roughly between Wilmington and Bridgewater.

Bottom line, this storm will be both a pain in the neck and a reason to celebrate. Ski areas get a nice dump just in time for Christmas week. So the resorts are happy, and so will the Vermont Department of Taxes, given the anticipated sales tax revenue this storm could bring. 

For valley dwellers, the good thing is there will be snow to play in, and it wills stick around through Christmas Day to get you into the holiday spirit, if you're not there already. 

On the not so happy side with this storm, if you're out of shape or worried about your heart health, please get some robust, brawny teenager to shovel your driveway.  Meanwhile, you can sit inside with your hot chocolate and rifle through your wallet looking for cash to pay said teenager. Or maybe just Venmo them, I don't know.

Also remember, you might be great at driving in the snow, but some people are, frankly idiots. Drive defensively in this one. Also, check on your elderly neighbors, especially if the power goes out. 

Potentially Worst Snowstorm Of The Winter Headed Toward Vermont, Surrounding Areas

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has
taken a first stab at expected snow amounts from 
the upcoming storm Saturday. They're depicting more
than a foot of snow in much of northern Vermont.
Some of the snow could be wet and heavy, too.

 Winter storm watches were flying this morning for all of Vermont, most of New York and parts of Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Maine for what looks like an especially nasty storm scheduled for Saturday.  

Here in Vermont, if forecasts hold, some places could have amounts similar to an early February storm that brought more than a foot of snow to central and northern parts of the state.

But this new storm would be worse and much more disruptive than that February storm because at least some of the snow looks like it will be wet and heavy. Plus, the storm will almost certainly bring strong winds. 

Again, if forecasts don't change, this would also be a quick hitter, with most of the drama hitting inside a 12 hour window, mostly centered on Saturday afternoon and evening. 

That's a potential almost worst case scenario for utilities.  Dense wet snow could pile up at a rate of one to two inches per hour, so trees and lines could get weighted down awfully fast.  Temperatures will drop later on in the storm, freezing that wet snow to those trees and lines. Then winds Saturday night will gust to 40 mph or more, knocking more stuff down. 

I'm sure Green Mountain Power and other Vermont utilities are just loving this forecast. There could be a lot of power outages, and some of them could last quite some time. 

I think that's why the National Weather Service in South Burlington wisely issued the winter storm watch so far ahead of the storm. They know this storm could have a lot of impacts and the NWS wants to give us a good heads up. 

Of course, as always, the devil is in the details. If temperatures drop faster than forecast, more of the snow would be powdery and blow away before causing many problems. Or, less snow could come down than forecast, or, in southeastern Vermont at least, there's a chance that the bulk of the precipitation might be rain.

It's also a question of where the wet, heavy snow will focus.  Temperatures will start off near the freezing point during the storm, hence the expected cement-like snow. But temperatures will drop during the course of the storm. 

Where it gets, say, into the mid and upper 20s quickly, before much of the heavy snow arrives, that won't be much of a problem. Where temperatures hold near the freezing point for several hours during the heaviest precipitation rates,  you've got issues.  

Chances are there will be a temperature gradient somewhere in or near Vermont in which some areas get the wet, sticky stuff and other areas get more powder. It's too soon to tell where that will be just yet.

At this point, as the National Weather Service sees it, the timing of this is such that light, wet snow will start late Friday night and continue into Saturday morning, but not amount to much.   Most of this initial snow would be in northwestern Vermont.

Then as the main, fast-strengthening storm barrels into southern New England during the day, heavy snow will break out in the late morning or so.  Snow fall rates of one to two inches seem like a good bet. That's a lot. Especially if the snow is wet and heavy. Light fluffy snow can fairly easily pile up at a rate of an inch per hour.  It's a lot harder to do that when the snow is dense.

Intense snowfall during light fluffy snow is really hard to drive in.  Wet, intense snow is even worse. I'd start canceling travel plans for Saturday and Saturday night. 

There could be a lot of water in this snow.  The current forecast has an inch to an inch and a half of rainfall equivalent in this snow.  A run of the mill Vermont snowstorm has about a half inch of water with it. 

Temperatures will cool down quite a bit Saturday night during the tail end of the storm as winds increase.  That would add blowing and drifting snow to the picture on top of all the other headaches this storm might cause.

The strong winds will continue into Sunday, so it will be no picnic then, either. The wind will start to diminish during the afternoon.

The weather after a big March snowstorm is potluck. You could get an extended cold spell that keeps all the new snow around for a long time, or it can warm up fast. 

The forecasts are leaning toward a warm up fast scenario with this one. Starting Monday, afternoon temperatures will start to poke up towards 40 degrees, and continue that way through most of the week. That would start melting the snow gradually, which is a good way to do it. It reduces the chances of eventual flooding, and it's good weather for the maple sugar industry. 

Plus, temperatures like that mean it stays relatively cool in the mountains, so the new snow up there should stick around for a little while anyway. 

Is There A Big Snowstorm In Our Weekend Plans?

Lots of heavy, wet snow weighing down trees and
power lines after a storm in February, 2011. I don't 
expect anything quite this deep this Saturday, but
there is the potential for wet, disruptive
snowstorm this weekend. At least maybe. 

UPDATE 2 p.m. 

That little system scooting by to our south is over-performing in parts of the interior Northeast, including the two southernmost counties of Vermont. 

As of 2 p.m. moderate snow was falling on Bennington and cameras show a steady, accumulating snow in far southern Vermont.

Those areas are under a winter weather advisory now for two to six inches of snow.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says light snow might make it as far north as about Montpelier later this afternoon before shearing off the east. 

Places north of Route 2 should get little or nothing. But those same places north of Route 2 have the best chance of a lot of snow Saturday, at least if, a big if, but an if, current projections hold. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

We'll enjoy a pretty quiet rest of the week around here in Vermont through Friday, but there are signs of trouble looming. 

Oh, sure there's a little storm to deal with tonight. Given the fact this system was spinning up a few tornadoes along the Gulf Coast and also posing a flood risk in that area, it would seem we might eventually get nailed as soon as later today.

But nope! That one will scoot out to sea well south of us. It'll throw a little rain and wet snow our way later today and tonight.  Northern Vermont stands to get somewhere between nothing and nearly an inch of wet snow, and areas south of Route 4 could get one or two inches. 

The potential trouble actually comes Saturday. A rapidly strengthening storm is forecast to take shape somewhere in the southeastern United States later Friday and then race northward along the coast, ending up somewhere near southern New England Saturday afternoon.

The devil is always in the details, and those details are still lacking, given the fact the storm is still a good three days away.

A mostly rain event for Vermont was looking a little less likely as of this morning but is still on the table as a possibility.   Depending on exactly where this thing tracks, we could enough rain to raise flooding concerns, or  have a quick but rather intense and disruptive snowstorm Saturday or something that isn't as big a deal. 

The worrisome piece is that this storm could put down a very quickly accumulating swath of wet, heavy snow somewhere in Vermont.   This is also going to be a windy storm.  Soggy snow that piles up fast in gusty winds is a worst case scenario for trees and power lines. 

It's also awful on the roads.  Wet snow compresses into particularly hard and slippery ice under tires and traffic, especially as temperatures crash toward the end of the storm. 

Again, we don't know yet if that will happen, and if it does, exactly where it would happen, but it's something to watch. The National Weather Service in South Burlington says that current guidance is giving our region anywhere from 0.3 inches of melted precipitation, which isn't too bad, to 1.25 inches melted, which is a lot for our area in one storm. 

Whatever happens, it also seems like we'll have some strong winds and plunging temperatures Saturday night and Sunday, so if there is slop on the ground, it will freeze up in a nasty way. The winds could continue with power outages if there's still snow stuck to everything. 

It looks like this potential plunge back into winter won't last all that long. After a blustery and cold Sunday and a chilly Sunday night, temperatures at least in the valleys are forecast to pop back up above freezing by Monday afternoon.

"Heart Attack" Snow Needs To Be Cleared In Vermont, Be Careful

Wet snow falls Saturday evening in St. Albans, Vermont,
clinging to every branch and tree.

The almost-ended snowstorm in Vermont we had this weekend is going to be remembered a real back breaker.   

This was one of the most sopping wet, slushy snowstorms we've had in recent years.  The water content of the snow was super high. In places that got a lot of snow, that means it's going to be hard to clean up. 

Definitely get some young buff person to shovel your driveway if you have any concerns about your heart, or if you are just out of shape. 

A for example of the wetness of this snow: Rochester, Vermont got 16.5 inches of snow, and it had a water content of 1.38 inches. 

The big winners at latest report for snow in Vermont were 19 inches in Warren; 18.5 inches in East Dover and Stratton; 17 inches in Readsboro and 15 inches in Moretown and Mount Holly. 

Lower elevations had rain mixed in, lowering the snow totals.  My place in St. Albans, Vermont had 4.2 inches, most of which came last evening and overnight. 

Burlington managed 3.2 inches of snow on Saturday with the temperature never once falling below freezing all day - the low temperature Saturday was 33 degrees.

The heavy, wet snow not surprisingly caused trouble with trees and power lines. That 4.2 inches here in St. Albans was so wet and heavy that it broke a few small branches. That small amount of snow under normal circumstances would never have been nearly enough to cause that. 

You can imagine what more than a foot of slush can do.   There were still more than 3,000 homes and businesses without power in Vermont as of late morning Sunday.  There was a report from Warren this morning that a section of Route 100 was closed because several transformers and wires were arcing, setting fire to some trees.

It's still warm out for one more day as the cold air behind the storm is very much lagging.  So there will be more slush to deal with until it turns to ice tonight. 

Just a little more than four inches of new snow is so wet
it is greatly weighing down trees in 
St. Albans, Vermont today. 

There will still be those upslope snows going in the Green Mountains all day, so a few more inches might pile up there.  The Northeast Kingdom got mostly cheated by this storm, as the lower elevations there got a fair amount of rain.

A couple inches might accumulate there today. 

It's been a remarkably warm January so far, but today is the last of it. 

We're in for an extended period of much more normal temperatures for January.  After today, high temperatures will stay below freezing for the foreseeable future, and nights will get into the single numbers and teens. 

We might finally get to the point later in the week, or more likely later in the month, in which temperatures actually get below zero. That's not guaranteed, but it's possible.  I still see no sign of any of those epic cold waves Vermont sometimes gets, the kind where it gets into the 20s and 30s below zero. 

Unless there's a surprise, we won't see anything like that this month. 

Not weird for Vermont this time of year, but weird that we've gone so long without such chilly nights. 

There's also no sign of any other big storms for at least the next week.  Instead, we'll deal with moisture starved little "Alberta Clippers" coming in from the west and northwest.  Each one will toss a handful or two of snowflakes at us, but nothing wild.

The strongest of these clippers should come by around Thursday, and that one could bring some very light accumulations to the valleys, and perhaps a few inches in the mountains. 

For sure, though, if you want to play around in the snow we just got, you have time to do it. It's not going anywhere anytime soon. 

Saturday Evening Vermont Storm Update: More On Way; Southern VT hardest Hit Again

A brief burst of heavy snow swept through St Albans,
Vermont around noon, but that snow was bookended
by rain in the morning and late afternoon.

This has really been a heavy, wet storm in Vermont today, whether you got a bunch of snow or you got a mix of rain.   

The result was a lot of power outages, especially in southern Vermont, which once again was the hardest hit part of the state. 

At one point, about 21,000 homes and businesses in Vermont had no power, but that was down to around 11,000  late this afternoon, now that precipitation is lighter. 

The dense, wet snow was coming down at a rate of up to two inches per hour in the high elevations of southern Vermont.  

Since this wasn't the usual dry, powdery stuff we usually get in the winter, and not the dry powdery stuff that came down epically in mid-December.

That meant the power failures really added up. 

No wonder, with wet snow totals including, so far, 16 inches in Woodford, 12.6 inches in  Landgrove and 11 inches in Readsboro and Halifax. So far.

Further north, higher elevations got generally five or six inches of snow, mixed with rain. 

In the Champlain Valley, it was mostly rain but a burst of convection -basically heavier showers -  brought down some colder air from aloft around noon. The resulted in a burst of heavy snow that produced 2 inches of snow in Burlington and an inch of slush here in St. Albans.

Then, at least in the Champlain and in much of the Connecticut River Valley, it went back to a light rain mixed with a little snow. 

Up in Quebec, heavy wet snow caused power outages for about 42,000 homes and businesses. 

Back here in Vermont, it ain't over yet!

The original storm system is moving away up into Canada.  However, the storm's upper level support  is going overhead tonight, and the storm now in Canada, will swing some rather moisture laded winds with it 

That means most of us will get some more snow overnight and into Sunday. It won't be much for large swaths of Vermont but there will be some accumulation. 

It will stay warmish tonight and for much of Sunday, so the warmer valleys will not see much accumulation. And what does come down will be wet and soggy. Snow will continue to be mixed with rain in the lower, broader valleys this evening. 

Still, a couple inches of additional snow could appear in the Champlain Valley between now and tomorrow afternoon.  Low and mid elevations in central and northern Vermont could get a few inches. 

This situation looks GREAT for higher elevations.  The heavy, wet snow we saw today establishes a nice base. The snow tonight and tomorrow up there will be a little lighter and more powdery, which is icing on the cake. 

Some of the higher peaks and maybe a few of the western slopes are in for at least six more inches of snow  

All in all, the National Weather Service in South Burlington, and the army of other meteorologists in Vermont did a fantastic job of forecasting this storm.  It worked out pretty much as expected, which is amazing since this was really a challenging forecast.

The only quibble I had is this storm over performed again. That's been happening with a lot of storms that affect us in recent years. At least in my opinion, the storms by and large have been a little bigger and more intense than many forecasts.