Is There A Big Snowstorm In Our Weekend Plans?

Lots of heavy, wet snow weighing down trees and
power lines after a storm in February, 2011. I don't 
expect anything quite this deep this Saturday, but
there is the potential for wet, disruptive
snowstorm this weekend. At least maybe. 

UPDATE 2 p.m. 

That little system scooting by to our south is over-performing in parts of the interior Northeast, including the two southernmost counties of Vermont. 

As of 2 p.m. moderate snow was falling on Bennington and cameras show a steady, accumulating snow in far southern Vermont.

Those areas are under a winter weather advisory now for two to six inches of snow.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says light snow might make it as far north as about Montpelier later this afternoon before shearing off the east. 

Places north of Route 2 should get little or nothing. But those same places north of Route 2 have the best chance of a lot of snow Saturday, at least if, a big if, but an if, current projections hold. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

We'll enjoy a pretty quiet rest of the week around here in Vermont through Friday, but there are signs of trouble looming. 

Oh, sure there's a little storm to deal with tonight. Given the fact this system was spinning up a few tornadoes along the Gulf Coast and also posing a flood risk in that area, it would seem we might eventually get nailed as soon as later today.

But nope! That one will scoot out to sea well south of us. It'll throw a little rain and wet snow our way later today and tonight.  Northern Vermont stands to get somewhere between nothing and nearly an inch of wet snow, and areas south of Route 4 could get one or two inches. 

The potential trouble actually comes Saturday. A rapidly strengthening storm is forecast to take shape somewhere in the southeastern United States later Friday and then race northward along the coast, ending up somewhere near southern New England Saturday afternoon.

The devil is always in the details, and those details are still lacking, given the fact the storm is still a good three days away.

A mostly rain event for Vermont was looking a little less likely as of this morning but is still on the table as a possibility.   Depending on exactly where this thing tracks, we could enough rain to raise flooding concerns, or  have a quick but rather intense and disruptive snowstorm Saturday or something that isn't as big a deal. 

The worrisome piece is that this storm could put down a very quickly accumulating swath of wet, heavy snow somewhere in Vermont.   This is also going to be a windy storm.  Soggy snow that piles up fast in gusty winds is a worst case scenario for trees and power lines. 

It's also awful on the roads.  Wet snow compresses into particularly hard and slippery ice under tires and traffic, especially as temperatures crash toward the end of the storm. 

Again, we don't know yet if that will happen, and if it does, exactly where it would happen, but it's something to watch. The National Weather Service in South Burlington says that current guidance is giving our region anywhere from 0.3 inches of melted precipitation, which isn't too bad, to 1.25 inches melted, which is a lot for our area in one storm. 

Whatever happens, it also seems like we'll have some strong winds and plunging temperatures Saturday night and Sunday, so if there is slop on the ground, it will freeze up in a nasty way. The winds could continue with power outages if there's still snow stuck to everything. 

It looks like this potential plunge back into winter won't last all that long. After a blustery and cold Sunday and a chilly Sunday night, temperatures at least in the valleys are forecast to pop back up above freezing by Monday afternoon.