Saturday, March 5, 2022

Sunday's Weather In Vermont Just Got A Little More Interesting

The forecast for Sunday in Vermont has taken an interesting turn since this morning.  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has extended a marginal risk of severe storms from New York, where it was this morning, on eastward into the Green Mountain State.  
A severe thunderstorm menaces St. Albans, Vermont a 
few years ago. While I don't expect anything as dramatic
as this photo, a few spots could see strong winds, with
a remote possibility of damaging gusts in 
one or two locations Sunday. 

Marginal risk is the lowest of five alert levels for severe storms, and means that there could be isolated instances of severe weather. 

Still to be put under any kind of severe thunderstorm risk is highly unusual for Vermont this early in the season. 

The only earlier example I can think was on February 25, 2017 during an extreme, record shattering warm spell.  There were a few reports of wind damage in Vermont that day, and a first of its kind tornado in western Massachusetts that day.

This time around, and unlike March 26 of last year, there's no tornado threat. Instead, the set up is strong winds that are expected to roar Sunday several thousand feet overhead.

A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to form sometime Sunday in New York and move rapidly into Vermont.  The tall-ish clouds with these storms could grab some of that high speed air up above and slam it down onto the Earth's surface in a few spots, which would cause a few instances of strong, damaging straight line winds.

I don't expect too much lightning with these storms. They'll also be quick movers, so rainfall won't be all that big a deal. The thawing weather will raise water levels in streams and rivers and could shift around some ice jams. 

If tomorrow's storms develop, it would be the second Sunday in a row that Vermont had a weird line of dangerous storms. 

Last Sunday, you might remember, an intense band of blinding snow squalls swept through the state, briefly dropping visibility to zero as dramatic clouds of snow blasted through the state. 

That other system is still in the cards for Monday, with rain and/or snow changing to snow before ending Monday evening. 

Meanwhile, in Iowa, severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes have developed. Several tornado warnings went up in the southwestern part of that state today. So far, there have been two confirmed tornado reports. 

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