As Expected, We Have A Very Winter Morning, Then, Yo-Yo Weather

Screen grab from the WCAX Sky Watch 3 ECHO Cam
just after sunrise this morning looking out over Lake
Champlain from Burlington, Vermont. I can't tell
from the image whether the entire lake froze over in 
last night's subzero temperatures.

 Sure enough, it was below zero over almost all of Vermont and northern New York this morning.

The usual cold spots were in the upper teens to near 20 below. Island Pond was at least 20 below this morning. Lake Eden was at 17 below.  

In Burlington, it was 3 below this morning. That's the coldest it's been in March since March 6, 2015, when it got down to 10 below.  

We're nowhere near any record lows, though.  The record for the date, and the month was set on March 4, 1938 when it was 24 below in Burlington.

It will be interesting to see if Lake Champlain froze over completely last night. It was close going in, with just a small patch of open water visible on Thursday.  I, and the National Weather Service office in South Burlington were hoping for a clear view of the lake from satellites this morning after sunup and before expected clouds come in. 

I've been looking at web cams on the shore of Lake Champlain and I can't tell if there's open water out there or not. A satellite image would help. 

If it turns out Lake Champlain did freeze over completely, that will be only the fourth time it has done so in the past 14 years. 

Those clouds will come in fairly quickly today but don't expect anything out of them except a few snow flurries. No biggie. 

It'll stay on the cold side for this time of year through Saturday, but not as bad as this morning.  We're talking highs in the 20s today, lows mostly in the single numbers above zero tonight, and readings just below freezing Saturday.

Frost pattern on my truck window in St. Albans, Vermont 
this morning amid what might be the last subzero 
morning of this winter. 

We're still expecting a period of mixed precipitation Saturday night.  Sunday brings us a brief "heat wave" amid rain showers as temperatures pop up into the 50s.

The mild burst won't last.  

Sunday's rain showers won't be all that heavy, and a cold front will sweep through later in the day.  The National Weather Service is still expecting that front to stall to our south and at least two waves of low pressure to move along it.

That means we're in for some periods of cold rain or snow, depending on where you are.  Southern valleys have the highest chance of rain, the north the best chance of snow.  But it also looks like whatever precipitation falls will be fairly light up north. Southern areas will get more. 

 This storminess in Vermont over the weekend and early next week will be, as usual, milder and less disruptive than in other parts of the nation.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is still expecting severe storms and perhaps a few tornadoes in Iowa Saturday, which is pretty far north for so early in the season. 

Repeating a pattern we've seen so often this winter, severe storms and tornadoes seem like a good bet in the Deep South Sunday and Monday; the risk of flooding is returning for the umpteenth time in parts of Arkansas, Missouri and Kentucky, and seemingly ever-present rangeland fire risk in the southern and central Plains is back with us today and tomorrow.