Friday Evening Storm Update: Things Keep Changing

Latest snowfall map from the National Weather Service in 
South Burlington, Vermont as of late afternoon Friday.
They've lowered expected totals in the Champlain Valley,
but kept accumulations more or less the same elsewher.
Maybe a little more in the northern Green Mountains 
and lower Connecticut River Valley.

 As we get ready for our brief interruption to spring here in Vermont, we do appear to have something of a shapeshifting winter storm on our hands for tomorrow.  

All the broad outlines of the expected effects of the storm remain more or less the same, the picky details of what will happen keep changing.  More so than in I think any other winter storm this season. 

The winter storm warning remains in effect for all of Vermont. We'll still have to contend with some power outages due to areas of wet snow, and strong winds. We'll still have sharp, brief cold snap. 

However, things continue to shift, and probably will right through the life of the storm around our neck of the woods. 

Snow totals will be more variable across the area than in past storms. The immediate Champlain Valley should only receive three to six inches of snow out of this thing.  Just inland from the lake, along and east of Route 7 from Middlebury north, totals go up to seven to 10 inches.  Southern Vermont except for the lower Connecticut Valley gets 6 to 10 inches, as things stand now. 

That said, expected snow totals have snuck upward just a bit in the lower Connecticut Valley, as the colder air will win out a little faster than expected, so there will be a quicker changeover from rain to snow down there. 

The big winners will be the central and northern Green Mountains with 10 to 15 inches with locally as much as 20 inches near favored summits. If I had to predict the place that will receive the most snow, I vote for Jay Peak. 

The projected storm track is a little east of an a little faster than earlier forecasts. For most of us, rain and wet snow will start late tonight or early Saturday, and continue as wet snow into the morning. The heaviest snow will peak at midday, say from mid-morning to mid to late afternoon. Except on the western slopes and summits of the Green Mountains. Snow there will continue longer into the night. That's why they get the bonus totals. 

A surprising amount of green showing up in my St. 
Albans, Vermont perennial gardens today. Pretty 
impressive for March 11.  The gardens, and 
everyone else in Vermont will see spring interrupted by
tomorrow's winter storm, but warm weather is 
forecast to return later next week.

Power outages are still in play since the beginning of the storm will feature wet, heavy snow. Temperatures will crash earliest - during the early to mid afternoon - in northwestern Vermont, so they'll change to a powdery snow sooner, lessening but not eliminating the chances of power outages

Southern and eastern Vermont is most in line for the power troubles, as they'll have more wet snow. This won't be the most widespread power outage even ever, but some people will be unlucky enough to face downed lines and utility crews battling rough weather to get things up and running again. 

The powdery snow over northwestern areas isn't all good news. Winds will crank up in the late afternoon and evening. Even though it won't be snowing as hard by then, blowing snow could create some near blizzard conditions at times. 

It won't be fun on the roads anytime Saturday, but don't get lulled by the lighter evening snow. That blowing snow will be a bear to deal with in terms of visibility and drifts piling up on roads.

Anybody that does lose power faces a miserable Saturday night. Winds will gust over 40 mph in many areas, and temperatures will crash into the single numbers to low teens.

Sunday will see slow improvement. Strong gusty winds in the morning will slowly subside in the afternoon.  After a very cold start temperatures will rise into the mid and upper 20s for most of us be mid afternoon to evening.

That's well below normal for this time of year, but frankly, not awful.  The sun will make an appearance as well, which should help.

Then, by golly, it's back to spring. It won't look like it at first, as there will be plenty of snow on the ground. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be near 40 in the valleys, so the snow won't melt very rapidly at first. 

If current forecasts hold, it would then get into the upper 40s Wednesday and the 50s Thursday and Friday, which would be more normal for April than March.

I've already got a surprising amount of little green shoots in my St. Albans, Vermont perennial gardens. Despite Saturday's rough weather, could this turn out to be an early spring? I'm not counting on it by any means, but it would be nice to see.