Potentially Worst Snowstorm Of The Winter Headed Toward Vermont, Surrounding Areas

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has
taken a first stab at expected snow amounts from 
the upcoming storm Saturday. They're depicting more
than a foot of snow in much of northern Vermont.
Some of the snow could be wet and heavy, too.

 Winter storm watches were flying this morning for all of Vermont, most of New York and parts of Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Maine for what looks like an especially nasty storm scheduled for Saturday.  

Here in Vermont, if forecasts hold, some places could have amounts similar to an early February storm that brought more than a foot of snow to central and northern parts of the state.

But this new storm would be worse and much more disruptive than that February storm because at least some of the snow looks like it will be wet and heavy. Plus, the storm will almost certainly bring strong winds. 

Again, if forecasts don't change, this would also be a quick hitter, with most of the drama hitting inside a 12 hour window, mostly centered on Saturday afternoon and evening. 

That's a potential almost worst case scenario for utilities.  Dense wet snow could pile up at a rate of one to two inches per hour, so trees and lines could get weighted down awfully fast.  Temperatures will drop later on in the storm, freezing that wet snow to those trees and lines. Then winds Saturday night will gust to 40 mph or more, knocking more stuff down. 

I'm sure Green Mountain Power and other Vermont utilities are just loving this forecast. There could be a lot of power outages, and some of them could last quite some time. 

I think that's why the National Weather Service in South Burlington wisely issued the winter storm watch so far ahead of the storm. They know this storm could have a lot of impacts and the NWS wants to give us a good heads up. 

Of course, as always, the devil is in the details. If temperatures drop faster than forecast, more of the snow would be powdery and blow away before causing many problems. Or, less snow could come down than forecast, or, in southeastern Vermont at least, there's a chance that the bulk of the precipitation might be rain.

It's also a question of where the wet, heavy snow will focus.  Temperatures will start off near the freezing point during the storm, hence the expected cement-like snow. But temperatures will drop during the course of the storm. 

Where it gets, say, into the mid and upper 20s quickly, before much of the heavy snow arrives, that won't be much of a problem. Where temperatures hold near the freezing point for several hours during the heaviest precipitation rates,  you've got issues.  

Chances are there will be a temperature gradient somewhere in or near Vermont in which some areas get the wet, sticky stuff and other areas get more powder. It's too soon to tell where that will be just yet.

At this point, as the National Weather Service sees it, the timing of this is such that light, wet snow will start late Friday night and continue into Saturday morning, but not amount to much.   Most of this initial snow would be in northwestern Vermont.

Then as the main, fast-strengthening storm barrels into southern New England during the day, heavy snow will break out in the late morning or so.  Snow fall rates of one to two inches seem like a good bet. That's a lot. Especially if the snow is wet and heavy. Light fluffy snow can fairly easily pile up at a rate of an inch per hour.  It's a lot harder to do that when the snow is dense.

Intense snowfall during light fluffy snow is really hard to drive in.  Wet, intense snow is even worse. I'd start canceling travel plans for Saturday and Saturday night. 

There could be a lot of water in this snow.  The current forecast has an inch to an inch and a half of rainfall equivalent in this snow.  A run of the mill Vermont snowstorm has about a half inch of water with it. 

Temperatures will cool down quite a bit Saturday night during the tail end of the storm as winds increase.  That would add blowing and drifting snow to the picture on top of all the other headaches this storm might cause.

The strong winds will continue into Sunday, so it will be no picnic then, either. The wind will start to diminish during the afternoon.

The weather after a big March snowstorm is potluck. You could get an extended cold spell that keeps all the new snow around for a long time, or it can warm up fast. 

The forecasts are leaning toward a warm up fast scenario with this one. Starting Monday, afternoon temperatures will start to poke up towards 40 degrees, and continue that way through most of the week. That would start melting the snow gradually, which is a good way to do it. It reduces the chances of eventual flooding, and it's good weather for the maple sugar industry. 

Plus, temperatures like that mean it stays relatively cool in the mountains, so the new snow up there should stick around for a little while anyway.